Despite a decade-long bull market between the financial crisis and the COVID-19 recession, state defined benefit pension plans had accrued more than $1.37 trillion in unfunded liabilities. However, little work has investigated the actuarial sources of these unfunded liabilities. This paper uses original data hand collected from publicly available financial reports between 2000 and 2020 for 145 state-administered pension plans to determine the sources of unfunded liabilities. The largest unfunded liability contributor is investment experiences (when actual investment returns do not match assumed returns). The second and third largest contributors are changes to actuarial assumptions and expected changes (or interest accruing on existing unfunded liabilities). Benefit experience and legislative changes, demographic experience, and explicit funding shortfalls account for relatively little of the growth in unfunded liabilities. Moreover, the specific sources of unfunded liabilities are heterogeneous over time and across plans.

Compared to the global average, the exit rate of old-aged Iranian labourers is significantly higher than that of middle-aged, raising the hypothesis that social security generosity pulls older workers into early retirement. We used a unique individual dataset of Iran’s Social Security Organization (ISSO), including 267, 000 newly retired in 2016 and 2018, to assess the impact of ISSO’s pension policies on employees’ retirement age. In a counterfactual evaluation design, this study first estimated the implicit tax on work continuation and then applied the Heckman two-stage selection model. The findings show that ISSO’s retirement rules determining the age of exit and benefit eligibilities significantly increase the retirement probability and simultaneously decline the retirement age. Moreover, the implicit tax on work continuation, which reflects ISSO’s benefit formula, has a significant positive effect on retirement probability. The replacement rate also has a significant negative impact on retirement age. The retirement probability in hazardous jobs is higher than in normal ones, while exemptions significantly fall the outflow age of hazardous job holders. To maintain the scheme’s sustainability, reforms have to target an increase in the statutory retirement age, a reduction in the accrual rate, the calculation of reference salary for more extended periods, and the decline of the exemption coefficient for hazardous jobs.

The consequences of legal access to medical marijuana for individuals' well-being are controversially assessed. We contribute to the discussion by evaluating the impact of the introduction of medical marijuana laws across US states on self-reported mental health considering different motives for cannabis consumption. Our analysis is based on BRFSS survey data from close to eight million respondents between 1993 and 2018 that we combine with information from the NSDUH to estimate individual consumption propensities. We find that eased access to marijuana through medical marijuana laws reduce the reported number of days with poor mental health for individuals with a high propensity to consume marijuana for medical purposes and for those individuals who likely suffer from frequent pain.

This paper presents a unique database that explores how industrialisation affected municipalities' incomes, expenditures and education spending. Using the importance of the mines and steelworks in Biscay in northern Spain between 1860 and 1910 as indicators of industrialisation, the findings show that there was a positive relationship between these dimensions and towns' incomes, which was indirectly transmitted to municipalities' expenditures, showing that municipalities were able to benefit from industrialisation. However, the thriving mining and metallurgy sectors did not support an increase in education spending. The lack of short-term results from spending on education may have led town councils to divert the revenues of industrialisation into more urgent areas, or those that could deliver faster results.

In Latin America, Colombia stands out for its more significant and persistent rural–urban educational performance gaps. This paper studies the evolution of this under-performance of Colombian rural areas by conducting a long-term descriptive analysis of a new dataset. The results suggest that the role of the national government is a source of these educational inequalities because rural education was introduced late and deficiently. That is, the national government delayed the provision of education to rural areas. Moreover, even when implemented, these rural educational initiatives proved deficient due to their lack of funds, lower quality, curricula detached from the rural context and a design that amplified regional disparities, thus producing and maintaining significant and persistent rural–urban gaps in education.

We propose an economic reformulation of contribution policy integrating: (1) formalization of sustainability as the steady-state contribution rate, incorporating both the expected return on risky assets and a low-risk discount rate for liabilities; (2) derivation of contribution adjustment policies required for convergence toward the target funded ratio and contribution rate; and (3) a stylized optimization framework for simultaneous determination of the target portfolio return and funded ratio. This analysis provides new theoretical insights into the basis for pre-funding vs. pay-as-you-go, resting on the convexity of the long-run risk–return relationship, and also potentially practical guidelines for contribution policy.

At the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, and with one of the largest and best-funded defined contribution programs in Latin America, Chile held over USD $200 bn in assets (or more than 80% of GDP). Reacting to populist pressures during the pandemic, however, the Congress gave non-retired participants three separate opportunities to tap into their retirement accounts, leaving some 4.2 million participants with zero retirement savings and draining around $50 bn from the system. This paper explores several hypotheses regarding why people withdrew their pension money early, and it also presents evidence regarding the likely impact of this short-term policy on long-term retirement wellbeing. We conclude with lessons for global policymakers seeking to protect pension assets critical for retirement security.

While there have been numerous studies illustrating the rather low level of financial knowledge of Americans, there have been only a few efforts to examine the effectiveness of employer-provided programs in enhancing financial literacy and the ability of these programs to modify worker retirement and saving decisions. In this paper, I summarize the findings from a series of studies conducted over the past 20 years. All of the studies were done in conjunction with employers. The primary objectives of this research have been to evaluate the effectiveness of onboarding and retirement planning programs and the financial education provided in these programs. In addition, employer nudges to mid-career employees are examined. I describe the impact of financial planning programs on worker knowledge of key financial concepts and their ability to make better decisions concerning saving decisions and the timing of retirement. I also provide recommendations on how to improve the effectiveness of workplace financial education programs.

Pensions may be provided for in a modern society by a mix of several methods, namely by voluntary individual savings, mandatory fully-funded occupational pension systems, mandatory social security financed by pay-as-you-go, and old-fashioned hoarding in cash. We call a specific mixture of the four systems a pension composition. We assume that individual workers decide on their own individual savings, that the fully-funded occupational system is decided upon by the age cohort of the median worker, and that social security is decided upon by the median voter. We assume that individual and collective pension savings are the only sources of capital supply. When capital supply equals demand from industry, there is equilibrium in the capital market with a corresponding equilibrium interest rate and pension composition. In this paper, we assume a demography with one hundred age brackets and we investigate how changes in the birth rates, survival rates, and the retirement age affect the pension composition and the capital market equilibrium. Our conclusion is that for a given technology, the pension composition and the interest rate are determined by the demography and cannot be modified at will as a long-term political instrument.

The papers in this volume examine a series of important questions that influence the transition from full time employment to complete retirement. Retirement is shown to be a process as individuals move from career jobs to bridge jobs to being out of the labor force. The articles examine the characteristics of bridge jobs and the employment conditions that older workers prefer. Analysis provided by the authors show the importance of saving throughout work life and how pension plans and retirement saving plans influence the timing of retirement.

We analyse the relationship between individuals' subjective wellbeing (SWB) and measures of their country's sustainability. SWB data are sourced from the World Values Survey; sustainability is measured by ecological footprint (EF) and by components of the World Bank's adjusted net savings (ANS) series. ANS, a measure of weak sustainability, represents changes in a country's capital stock including financial, physical, human and natural capital. We show that an increase in strong sustainability, measured by EF and by ANS's natural capital component, is associated with reductions in SWB over the next decade followed by a rebound in SWB over the subsequent decade. We show also that the perfect substitutability assumptions on which ANS is calculated do not hold. Our findings highlight an important political challenge: governments that run sustainable policies may decrease the near-term wellbeing of citizens. This can reduce government's short-term popularity even though the improved sustainability may raise future wellbeing.

The defined convex combination (DCC) pay-as-you-go public pension systems recently introduced in the literature are a form of hybridization between defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) designed to maintain intergenerational social equitability by reacting to demographic shocks in an optimal way. In this paper, we augment DCC schemes with the assumption that the dependency ratio between pensioners and workers is driven by an exogenously modelled instantaneous stochastic rate of change. This assumption enjoys support from the empirical data and allows explicit solutions for the contribution and replacement rate processes which make transparent the nature of the dynamic evolution of a DCC system, as well as the role of the variables involved. The analysis of intergenerational social equitability measures under the assumption of an instantaneous dependency rate confirms the view expressed in previous literature that neither DB nor DC achieves social fairness, and that DCC plans have the potential to improve on both. We perform a calibration test, and our findings seem to indicate that in ageing economies the DC system might indeed be superior to the DB one in terms of intergenerational fairness.

We examine pension-cost crowd out of salary expenditures in the public sector using a 15-year data panel of state teacher pension plans spanning the Great Recession. While there is no evidence of salary crowd out prior to the Great Recession, there is a shift in the post-recession years such that a 1% (of salaries) increase in the annual required pension contribution corresponds to a decrease in total teacher salary expenditures of 0.24%. The effect operates through changes to the size of the teaching workforce, not changes to teacher wages. An explanation for the effect heterogeneity pre- and post-recession is that public employers are less able to shield the workforce from pension costs during times of fiscal stress. This problem is exacerbated because unlike other benefit costs, such as for health care, pension costs are countercyclical.

Due to structural and policy shifts, pension deficit in North Macedonia doubled over a decade and significantly outpaced the central budget deficit. The objective of the paper is to examine fiscal and development effects of few pension-reform designs. We constructed MK-PENS Dynamic Microsimulation Pension Model and simulated the effects of few reforms affecting one stakeholder and few combined reforms. Results robustly suggest that without reform and assuming only statutory pension adjustment, the deficit will remain as is. Simulated scenarios suggest that proposed pension reforms significantly reduce the pension deficit, with the most favourable results obtained within the combined scenarios of shared burden. Gradual introduction of reform's elements should come into play in case large political cost is envisaged.

In recent years, a growing number of capital market professionals have projected a low-return environment in US investment portfolios – where returns in most asset classes are expected to drop below historical rates. While these specific forecasts may not fully materialize, it is natural for cyclical investment markets to go through extended periods of lower returns, creating significant risks for public pension systems which rely on investment returns to sustain their long-term solvency and offset budgetary contributions. This paper uses a simulation method to examine the long-term effect of a low-return environment on the unfunded liabilities and contribution costs of US public pension systems while considering the moderating effects of asset allocation strategies, amortization approaches, and contribution policies.

Since 2001, public-pension plans have increasingly relied upon alternative investments (AIs). We examine the impact of this trend on investment performance and the factors that led to the reliance on AI. Using data from 92 largest plans 2001–2014, we found AI, especially private equity, generally had a positive effect on investment performance, but the effect was small and unsustainable. We also found that plans with a lower funded ratio and higher investment return expectation were more likely to allocate more assets to AIs. These findings suggest that the prospect of relying on AIs to meet investment return expectations remains a long-term challenge for state and local governments.

I analyze the effects of state public pension parameters on the retirement of public employees. Using a panel data set of public sector workers from 12 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, I model the probability of retirement as a function of pension wealth at early and normal retirement eligibility and Social Security coverage in the public sector job. I find that becoming eligible for early retirement, or receiving an early-out offer, significantly increases the probability of retiring. I do not find any effect of retirement wealth levels. These findings suggest that state legislative action to affect retirement decisions and reduce future pension costs would be most effective operating through plan eligibility rules and early-out incentives.

We investigated labor force and health outcomes in cities experiencing fiscal difficulties to assess how those difficulties might impact their employees. We matched 23 cities with bond downgrades and 31 cities with stable bond ratings to sampling units in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Starting the year before the downgrade and for the four subsequent years, the rate of separation from local public employment fell in the cities with downgrades relative to the comparison group. Self-reported health may have worsened, but there were no statistically significant effects on health care use or spending.

One of the major findings of this paper, which studied the multiplier effects of pensions received at each Portuguese municipality since 2003, is that pensions stimulate the incomes of municipalities. We studied these effects also considering the spillovers from/to the surrounding areas. After discussing several models of spatial analysis, we chose the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model. Our results were obtained after considering a proper set of control variables.

This paper builds on previous work (Costrell and McGee, 2017a, Education Finance and Policy) on the redistribution of teacher pension benefits, as measured by the wide variation in individual normal cost rates by age of entry and exit, and the associated cross-subsidies. The further steps taken here are: (i) to examine the impact of the discount rate on the degree of redistribution, and the analytics behind it; and (ii) to identify the distribution of the market value of the pension guarantee. Using the example of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, I find that: (i) high-assumed returns substantially understate the extent to which costs are redistributed for back-loaded plans; and (ii) the market value of the pension guarantee is highly concentrated among long-term teachers.