The analysis of insurance and annuity products issued on multiple lives requires the use of statistical models which account for lifetime dependence. This paper presents a Dirichlet process mixture-based approach that allows to model dependent lifetimes within a group, such as married couples, accounting for individual as well as group-specific covariates. The model is analyzed in a fully Bayesian setting and illustrated to jointly model the lifetime of male–female couples in a portfolio of joint and last survivor annuities of a Canadian life insurer. The inferential approach allows to account for right censoring and left truncation, which are common features of data in survival analysis. The model shows improved in-sample and out-of-sample performance compared to traditional approaches assuming independent lifetimes and offers additional insights into the determinants of the dependence between lifetimes and their impact on joint and last survivor annuity prices.

This paper studies optimal defined-contribution (DC) pension management under stochastic interest rates and expected inflation. In addition to financial risk, we consider the risk of pre-retirement death and introduce life insurance to the pension account as an option to manage this risk. We formulate this pension management problem as a random horizon utility maximization problem and derive its explicit solution under the assumption of constant relative risk aversion utility. We calibrate our model to the U.S. data and demonstrate that the pension member’s demand for life insurance has a hump-shaped pattern with age and a U-shaped pattern with the real interest rate and expected inflation. The optimal pension account balance in our model resembles a variable annuity, wherein the death benefits are endogenously determined and depend on various factors including age, mortality, account balance, future contributions, preferences, and market conditions. Our study suggests that offering variable annuities with more flexible death benefits within the DC account could better cater to the bequest demands of its members.

This article identifies issues relating to the use of genetics and genomics in risk-rated insurance that may challenge existing regulatory models in the UK and elsewhere. We discuss three core issues: (1) As genomic testing advances, and results are increasingly relevant to guide healthcare across an individual's lifetime, the distinction between diagnostic and predictive testing that the current UK insurance code relies on becomes increasingly blurred. (2) The emerging category of pharmacogenetic tests that are predictive only in the context of a specific prescribing moment. (3) The increasing availability and affordability of polygenic scores that are neither clearly diagnostic nor highly predictive, but which nonetheless might have incremental value for risk-rated insurance underwriting beyond conventional factors. We suggest a deliberative approach is required to establish when and how genetic information can be used in risk-rated insurance.

Guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits (GMABs) are retirement savings vehicles that protect the policyholder against downside market risk. This article proposes a valuation method for these contracts based on physics-inspired neural networks (PINNs), in the presence of multiple financial and biometric risk factors. A PINN integrates principles from physics into its learning process to enhance its efficiency in solving complex problems. In this article, the driving principle is the Feynman–Kac (FK) equation, which is a partial differential equation (PDE) governing the GMAB price in an arbitrage-free market. In our context, the FK PDE depends on multiple variables and is difficult to solve using classical finite difference approximations. In comparison, PINNs constitute an efficient alternative that can evaluate GMABs with various specifications without the need for retraining. To illustrate this, we consider a market with four risk factors. We first derive a closed-form expression for the GMAB that serves as a benchmark for the PINN. Next, we propose a scaled version of the FK equation that we solve using a PINN. Pricing errors are analyzed in a numerical illustration.

The calculation of life and health insurance liabilities is based on assumptions about mortality and disability rates, and insurance companies face systematic insurance risks if assumptions about these rates change. In this paper, we study how to manage systematic insurance risks in a multi-state setup by considering securities linked to the transition intensities of the model. We assume there exists a market for trading two securities linked to, for instance, mortality and disability rates, the de-risking option and the de-risking swap, and we describe the optimization problem to find the de-risking strategy that minimizes systematic insurance risks in a multi-state setup. We develop a numerical example based on the disability model, and the results imply that systematic insurance risks significantly decrease when implementing de-risking strategies.

Mutual benefit societies evolved as the major provider for sickness, accident and life insurance in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries on both sides of the Atlantic. One of the major problems facing insurers was the risk of adverse selection, i.e. that unhealthy individuals had more incentives than healthy individuals to insure when priced for the average risk. By empirically examining whether longevity among insured individuals in a nationwide mutual health society was different from a matched sample of uninsured individuals, we seek to identify the presence of adverse selection. We find no compelling evidence showing that unhealthy individuals were more likely to insure, or reasons to believe that problems related to adverse selection would have been a major reason for government intervention in the health insurance market in Sweden.

This paper provides a stochastic model, consistent with Solvency II and the Delegated Regulation, to quantify the capital requirement for demographic risk. In particular, we present a framework that models idiosyncratic and trend risks exploiting a risk theory approach in which results are obtained analytically. We apply the model to non-participating policies and quantify the Solvency Capital Requirement for the aforementioned risks in different time horizons.

This paper explores data and modelling considerations in the risk assessment and underwriting of mental health conditions in life insurance products. Alongside this, it considers the possibilities that improved data availability could open up in terms of additional underwriting designs that could further improve the accessibility and affordability of life insurance products for those with mental health conditions. Rather than being a prescriptive recommendation, our aim is for the considerations set out in this paper to form a basis of discussion for Members of the Profession and other insurance professionals.

Modeling policyholders’ lapse behaviors is important to a life insurer, since lapses affect pricing, reserving, profitability, liquidity, risk management, and the solvency of the insurer. In this paper, we apply two machine learning methods to lapse modeling. Then, we evaluate the performance of these two methods along with two popular statistical methods by means of statistical accuracy and profitability measure. Moreover, we adopt an innovative point of view on the lapse prediction problem that comes from churn management. We transform the classification problem into a regression question and then perform optimization, which is new to lapse risk management. We apply the aforementioned four methods to a large real-world insurance dataset. The results show that Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and support vector machine outperform logistic regression (LR) and classification and regression tree with respect to statistic accuracy, while LR performs as well as XGBoost in terms of retention gains. This highlights the importance of a proper validation metric when comparing different methods. The optimization after the transformation brings out significant and consistent increases in economic gains. Therefore, the insurer should conduct optimization on its economic objective to achieve optimal lapse management.

This paper provides a method to assess the risk relief deriving from a foreign expansion by a life insurance company. We build a parsimonious continuous-time model for longevity risk that captures the dependence across different ages in domestic versus foreign populations. We calibrate the model to portray the case of a UK annuity portfolio expanding internationally toward Italian policyholders. The longevity risk diversification benefits of an international expansion are sizable, in particular when interest rates are low. The benefits are judged based on traditional measures, such as the Risk Margin or volatility reduction, and on a novel measure, the Diversification Index.

In most industrialised countries, one of the major societal challenges is the demographic change coming along with the ageing of the population. The increasing life expectancy observed over the last decades underlines the importance to find ways to appropriately cover the financial needs of the elderly. A particular issue arises in the area of health, where sufficient care must be provided to a growing number of dependent elderly in need of long-term care (LTC) services. In many markets, the offering of life insurance products incorporating care options and LTC insurance products is generally scarce. In our research, we therefore examine a life annuity product with an embedded care option potentially providing additional financial support to dependent persons. To evaluate the care option, we determine the minimum price that the annuity provider requires and the policyholder’s willingness to pay for the care option. For the latter, we employ individual utility functions taking account of the policyholder’s condition. We base our numerical study on recently developed transition probability data from Switzerland. Our findings give new and realistic insights into the nature and the utility of life annuity products proposing an embedded care option for tackling the financing of LTC needs.

During the past decade, genetics research has allowed scientists and clinicians to explore the human genome in detail and reveal many thousands of common genetic variants associated with disease. Genetic risk scores, known as polygenic risk scores (PRSs), aggregate risk information from the most important genetic variants into a single score that describes an individual’s genetic predisposition to a given disease. This article reviews recent developments in the predictive utility of PRSs in relation to a person’s susceptibility to breast cancer and coronary artery disease. Prognostic models for these disorders are built using data from the UK Biobank, controlling for typical clinical and underwriting risk factors. Furthermore, we explore the possibility of adverse selection where genetic information about multifactorial disorders is available for insurance purchasers but not for underwriters. We demonstrate that prediction of multifactorial diseases, using PRSs, provides population risk information additional to that captured by normal underwriting risk factors. This research using the UK Biobank is in the public interest as it contributes to our understanding of predicting risk of disease in the population. Further research is imperative to understand how PRSs could cause adverse selection if consumers use this information to alter their insurance purchasing behaviour.

Employability assessment was developed to help claims professionals decide total and permanent disability insurance claims, yet it has not been empirically evaluated. This descriptive study sought formative knowledge about employability assessment from claims professionals working in the multibillion-dollar Australian life insurance total and permanent disability market. Claims assessors (n = 53) and technical advisors (n = 51) responded to a nationwide online survey. Participants found employability assessment was cost effective and very useful in deciding claims. Having an objective, realistic, and clear picture of a claimant’s employment prospects was important. Highly rated components of employability assessment included transferable skills analysis; summary of education, training and experience; job match rationale; and labour market analysis with employer contact. Face-to-face claimant interviews were favoured by 56% of participants, particularly when there was legal involvement. Standardised provider training and certification were recommended to improve report quality and withstand scrutiny of the courts. Billing time estimates are higher than extant costs for assessment tasks. More than half (56%) the participants considered rehabilitation counsellors were best qualified to conduct employability assessments. The study findings contribute new knowledge to this emergent field and point to further research into quality and cost of employability assessment, and provider accreditation.