To investigate the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, their dynamics and their discriminatory power for the disease using longitudinally, prospectively collected information reported at the time of their occurrence. We have analysed data from a large phase 3 clinical UK COVID-19 vaccine trial. The alpha variant was the predominant strain. Participants were assessed for SARS-CoV-2 infection via nasal/throat PCR at recruitment, vaccination appointments, and when symptomatic. Statistical techniques were implemented to infer estimates representative of the UK population, accounting for multiple symptomatic episodes associated with one individual. An optimal diagnostic model for SARS-CoV-2 infection was derived. The 4-month prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.1%; increasing to 19.4% (16.0%–22.7%) in participants reporting loss of appetite and 31.9% (27.1%–36.8%) in those with anosmia/ageusia. The model identified anosmia and/or ageusia, fever, congestion, and cough to be significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptoms’ dynamics were vastly different in the two groups; after a slow start peaking later and lasting longer in PCR+ participants, whilst exhibiting a consistent decline in PCR- participants, with, on average, fewer than 3 days of symptoms reported. Anosmia/ageusia peaked late in confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (day 12), indicating a low discrimination power for early disease diagnosis.

This study considers data from 5 waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We aim to study the impact of demographic and self-rated health variables including disability and diseases on the survival of the population aged 50+. The disability variables that we consider are mobility impairment, difficulties in performing Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). One of the problems with the survey study is missing observations. This may happen due to different reasons, such as errors, nonresponse and temporary withdrawals. We address this problem by applying single and multiple imputation methods. We then fit a Generalized Linear model (GLM) and Generalized Linear Mixed model (GLMM) to our data and show that a GLMM performs better than a GLM in terms of information criteria. We also look at the predictability of our models in terms of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the area of ROC, i.e. AUC. We conclude that among the disability factors, IADL and among the diseases, cancer significantly affect the survival of the English population aged 50 and older.

We contribute to the argument for a “new” business history employing a quantitative approach. We illustrate opportunities for new perspectives from this approach using a novel microlevel longitudinal database comprising 131 variables for 1,419 cooperative creameries in Denmark for the period 1898–1945, which we also document and make available to the scholarly community. We present a number of applications of the data, including investigating regional productivity differences, expenditure on fire insurance, and survivorship and reporting biases.

Young Canadian women engage in post-school study at a much higher rate than their Australian peers, with a large part of the difference in this rate attributable to differences in rates of participation in the non-university sector. This article uses data from the Australian Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth and the Canadian Youth in Transition Survey to generate a unique cross-country comparison of the characteristics of young women engaged in different types of post-school education. The results highlight important differences in the role played by academic ability and parental resources in the allocation of educational ‘slots' in the non-university sectors of the two countries. The results suggest that ‘second-tier’ post-school institutions could play a role in boosting rates of post-school education in Australia, with important consequences for the design of policy on this sector.

Customer churn, which insurance companies use to describe the non-renewal of existing customers, is a widespread and expensive problem in general insurance, particularly because contracts are usually short-term and are renewed periodically. Traditionally, customer churn analyses have employed models which utilise only a binary outcome (churn or not churn) in one period. However, real business relationships are multi-period, and policyholders may reside and transition between a wider range of states beyond that of the simply churn/not churn throughout this relationship. To better encapsulate the richness of policyholder behaviours through time, we propose multi-state customer churn analysis, which aims to model behaviour over a larger number of states (defined by different combinations of insurance coverage taken) and across multiple periods (thereby making use of readily available longitudinal data). Using multinomial logistic regression (MLR) with a second-order Markov assumption, we demonstrate how multi-state customer churn analysis offers deeper insights into how a policyholder’s transition history is associated with their decision making, whether that be to retain the current set of policies, churn, or add/drop a coverage. Applying this model to commercial insurance data from the Wisconsin Local Government Property Insurance Fund, we illustrate how transition probabilities between states are affected by differing sets of explanatory variables and that a multi-state analysis can potentially offer stronger predictive performance and more accurate calculations of customer lifetime value (say), compared to the traditional customer churn analysis techniques.

Optimizing research on the developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD) involves implementing initiatives maximizing the use of the available cohort study data; achieving sufficient statistical power to support subgroup analysis; and using participant data presenting adequate follow-up and exposure heterogeneity. It also involves being able to undertake comparison, cross-validation, or replication across data sets. To answer these requirements, cohort study data need to be findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR), and more particularly, it often needs to be harmonized. Harmonization is required to achieve or improve comparability of the putatively equivalent measures collected by different studies on different individuals. Although the characteristics of the research initiatives generating and using harmonized data vary extensively, all are confronted by similar issues. Having to collate, understand, process, host, and co-analyze data from individual cohort studies is particularly challenging. The scientific success and timely management of projects can be facilitated by an ensemble of factors. The current document provides an overview of the ‘life course’ of research projects requiring harmonization of existing data and highlights key elements to be considered from the inception to the end of the project.

Dietary pattern analysis is typically based on dimension reduction and summarises the diet with a small number of scores. We assess ‘joint and individual variance explained’ (JIVE) as a method for extracting dietary patterns from longitudinal data that highlights elements of the diet that are associated over time. The Auckland Birthweight Collaborative Study, in which participants completed an FFQ at ages 3·5 (n 549), 7 (n 591) and 11 (n 617), is used as an example. Data from each time point are projected onto the directions of shared variability produced by JIVE to yield dietary patterns and scores. We assess the ability of the scores to predict future BMI and blood pressure measurements of the participants and make a comparison with principal component analysis (PCA) performed separately at each time point. The diet could be summarised with three JIVE patterns. The patterns were interpretable, with the same interpretation across age groups: a vegetable and whole grain pattern, a sweets and meats pattern and a cereal v. sweet drinks pattern. The first two PCA-derived patterns were similar across age groups and similar to the first two JIVE patterns. The interpretation of the third PCA pattern changed across age groups. Scores produced by the two techniques were similarly effective in predicting future BMI and blood pressure. We conclude that when data from the same participants at multiple ages are available, JIVE provides an advantage over PCA by extracting patterns with a common interpretation across age groups.

Simple ordinary least squares estimates indicate that absent fathers boost probabilities of adolescent criminal behavior by 16–38%, but those numbers likely are biased by unobserved heterogeneity. This paper first presents an economic model explaining that unobserved heterogeneity. Then turning to empirics, fixed effects, which attempt to address that bias, suggest that absent fathers reduce certain types of adolescent crime, while lagged-dependent variable models suggest the opposite. Those conflicting conclusions are resolved by an approach that combines those two estimators using an orthogonal reparameterization approach, with model parameters calculated using a Bayesian algorithm. The main finding is that absent fathers do not appear to directly affect adolescent criminal activity. Rather, families with absent fathers possess traits that appear to correlate with increased adolescent criminal behaviors.

The two-way linear fixed effects regression (2FE) has become a default method for estimating causal effects from panel data. Many applied researchers use the 2FE estimator to adjust for unobserved unit-specific and time-specific confounders at the same time. Unfortunately, we demonstrate that the ability of the 2FE model to simultaneously adjust for these two types of unobserved confounders critically relies upon the assumption of linear additive effects. Another common justification for the use of the 2FE estimator is based on its equivalence to the difference-in-differences estimator under the simplest setting with two groups and two time periods. We show that this equivalence does not hold under more general settings commonly encountered in applied research. Instead, we prove that the multi-period difference-in-differences estimator is equivalent to the weighted 2FE estimator with some observations having negative weights. These analytical results imply that in contrast to the popular belief, the 2FE estimator does not represent a design-based, nonparametric estimation strategy for causal inference. Instead, its validity fundamentally rests on the modeling assumptions.

Given high rates of co-occurring conditions in youth and adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), it is critical to examine the developmental trajectories of these symptoms of psychopathology. Using data from a cohort of participants (n = 194), most of whom were first assessed for ASD in very early childhood, we investigated the trajectories of co-occurring depressive, anxiety, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms from late childhood to adulthood. Additionally, childhood predictors and adult outcomes associated with these symptom trajectories were examined. Using group-based trajectory modeling, we found two distinct classes of individuals exhibiting each of these co-occurring symptom patterns: one class exhibited fairly low symptoms across time, and one class with elevated symptoms with varied fluctuation across time (ADHD symptoms starting high but decreasing, anxiety symptoms high and stable, and depressive symptoms fluctuating but peaking at clinically significant levels in young adulthood). All high trajectory classes were associated with age 9 adaptive skills; verbal IQ predicted higher anxiety and depressive symptom classes. After accounting for verbal IQ, all high symptom trajectory classes were negative predictors of objective adult outcomes. These findings call for wide-ranging considerations of the needs of individuals across ability levels, autism symptoms, and behavioral and emotional challenges.