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The validity of conclusions drawn from specific research studies must be evaluated in light of the purposes for which the research was undertaken. We distinguish four general types of research: description and point estimation, correlation and prediction, causal inference, and explanation. For causal and explanatory research, internal validity is critical – the extent to which a causal relationship can be inferred from the results of variation in the independent and dependent variables of an experiment. Random assignment is discussed as the key to avoiding threats to internal validity. Internal validity is distinguished from construct validity (the relationship between a theoretical construct and the methods used to operationalize that concept) and external validity (the extent to which the results of a research study can be generalized to other contexts). Construct validity is discussed in terms of multiple operations and discriminant and convergent validity assessment. External validity is discussed in terms of replicability, robustness, and relevance of specific research findings.
This chapter explains how the Chilean right has been reconfigured due to the multidimensional crisis that has shaken Chile since the end of 2019. The authors analyze how tensions regarding competition and identity have affected relevant actors and structured their perceptions, calculations, and behaviors. They examine the ideational changes and continuities of the Chilean right’s road to moderation. They argue that the joint processes of liberalization and democratization gave rise to a gattopardista strategy of “changing so that things may remain the same.” This was characterized by the programmatic moderation of coalition candidates until the 2017 campaign, with traditional right-wing parties moving to the center to the extent that they did not threaten the pillars of the neoliberal model. However, when centrist and left-wing parties aimed to significantly reform the institutional core, the traditional right did react, and moved further to the right on the ideological continuum.
The analysis of ‘moderation’, ‘interaction’, ‘mediation’ and ‘longitudinal growth’ is widespread in the human sciences, yet subject to confusion. To clarify these concepts, it is essential to state causal estimands, which requires the specification of counterfactual contrasts for a target population on an appropriate scale. Once causal estimands are defined, we must consider their identification. I employ causal directed acyclic graphs and single world intervention graphs to elucidate identification workflows. I show that when multiple treatments exist, common methods for statistical inference, such as multi-level regressions and statistical structural equation models, cannot typically recover the causal quantities we seek. By properly framing and addressing causal questions of interaction, mediation, and time-varying treatments, we can expose the limitations of popular methods and guide researchers to a clearer understanding of the causal questions that animate our interests.
Whether material deprivation-related childhood socio-economic disadvantages (CSD) and care-related adverse childhood experiences (ACE) have different impacts on depressive symptoms in middle-aged and older people is unclear.
Methods
In the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study, CSD and ACE were assessed by 7 and 5 culturally sensitive questions, respectively, on 8,716 participants aged 50+. Depressive symptoms were measured by 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). Multivariable linear regression, stratification analyses, and mediation analyses were done.
Results
Higher CSD and ACE scores were associated with higher GDS score in dose-response manner (P for trend <0.001). Participants with one point increment in CSD and ACE had higher GDS score by 0.11 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09–0.14) and 0.41 (95% CI, 0.35–0.47), respectively. The association of CSD with GDS score was significant in women only (P for sex interaction <0.001; women: β (95% CI)=0.14 (0.11–0.17), men: 0.04 (−0.01 to 0.08)). The association between ACE and GDS score was stronger in participants with high social deprivation index (SDI) (P for interaction = 0.01; low SDI: β (95% CI)=0.36 (0.29–0.43), high SDI: 0.64 (0.48–0.80)). The proportion of association of CSD and ACE scores with GDS score mediated via education was 20.11% and 2.28%.
Conclusions
CSD and ACE were associated with late-life depressive symptoms with dose-response patterns, especially in women and those with low adulthood socio-economic status. Education was a major mediator for CSD but not ACE. Eliminating ACE should be a top priority.
Essential minerals are cofactors for synthesis of neurotransmitters supporting cognition and mood. An 8-week fully-blind randomised controlled trial of multinutrients for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) demonstrated three times as many children (age 6–12) had significantly improved behaviour (‘treatment responders’) on multinutrients (54 %) compared with placebo (18 %). The aim of this secondary study was to evaluate changes in fasted plasma and urinary mineral concentrations following the intervention and their role as mediators and moderators of treatment response. Fourteen essential or trace minerals were measured in plasma and/or urine at baseline and week eight from eighty-six participants (forty-nine multinutrients, thirty-seven placebos). Two-sample t tests/Mann–Whitney U tests compared 8-week change between treatment and placebo groups, which were also evaluated as potential mediators. Baseline levels were evaluated as potential moderators, using logistic regression models with clinical treatment response as the outcome. After 8 weeks, plasma boron, Cr (in females only), Li, Mo, Se and vanadium and urinary iodine, Li and Se increased more with multinutrients than placebo, while plasma phosphorus decreased. These changes did not mediate treatment response. However, baseline urinary Li trended towards moderation: participants with lower baseline urinary Li were more likely to respond to multinutrients (P = 0·058). Additionally, participants with higher baseline Fe were more likely to be treatment responders regardless of the treatment group (P = 0·036.) These results show that multinutrient treatment response among children with ADHD is independent of their baseline plasma mineral levels, while baseline urinary Li levels show potential as a non-invasive biomarker of treatment response requiring further study.
Once context–mechanism–outcome configurations (CMOCs) have been refined through qualitative research, they can be tested using quantitative data. A variety of different analyses can be used to assess the validity of CMOCs. Overall, analyses will not assess CMOCs but are nonetheless still useful in determining overall effects. Mediation analyses assess whether any intervention effect on an outcome is explained by intervention effects on intermediate outcomes, and so can shed light on mechanisms. Moderation analyses see how intervention effects vary between subgroups defined in terms of baseline context (settings or populations) and so shed light on contextual differences. Moderated mediation analyses assess whether mediation is apparent in some context but not others, and so can shed light on which mechanisms appear to generate outcomes in which contexts. Qualitative comparative analyses can examine whether more complex combinations of markers of context and mechanism co-occur with markers of outcome. Together, this set of analyses can provide nuanced and rigorous information on which CMOCs appear most usefully to explain how intervention mechanisms interact with context to generate outcomes.
This chapter examines how context–mechanism–outcome configurations (CMOCs) can be assessed within systematic reviews, again using the example of a review of school-based prevention of dating and other gender-based violence. Rather than testing CMOCs by assessing whether these align with the narratives reported by included studies, realistic systematic reviews assess and refine CMOCs by assessing how they compare with the statistical regularities reported by included studies. Overall meta-analyses indicate overall effects. Network meta-analyses shed light on how different intervention components might enable generation of outcomes. Narrative syntheses of mediation and moderation analyses and meta-regression suggest how mechanisms might work and how these may generate different outcomes in different contexts. Qualitative comparative analyses examine whether more complex combinations of markers of context and mechanism co-occur with markers of outcome. These analyses can provide nuanced and rigorous information on which CMOCs appear to explain how intervention mechanisms interact with context to generate outcomes. A limitation of assessing CMOCs in systematic reviews rather than primary intervention studies is that the analyst has less control over what empirical analyses are possible so analyses tend to be more inductive.
To examine whether targeted determinants mediated the effects of the HEalth In Adolescents (HEIA) intervention on fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption and explore if these mediating effects were moderated by sex, parental education or weight status.
Design:
Cluster-randomised controlled trial.
Setting:
The HEIA study (2007–2009) was a Norwegian 20-month multi-component school-based intervention to promote healthy weight development. FV consumption and targeted determinants were self-reported at baseline, mid-way (8 months) and post-intervention (20 months).
Participants:
Adolescents (11–13-year-old) in twenty-five control schools (n 746) and twelve intervention schools (n 375).
Results:
At post-intervention, more adolescents in the intervention group compared with the control group had knowledge of the FV recommendations (OR: 1·4, 95 % CI 1·1, 1·9) and reported a decreased availability of vegetables at home (β: –0·1, 95 % CI –0·2, 0·0). Availability/accessibility of FV at home, availability of vegetables at dinner, taste preferences for different types of FV and knowledge of the FV recommendations were positively associated with the consumption of FV. However, none of the post-intervention determinants significantly mediated the intervention effects on FV consumption. Although no moderating influences by sex, parental education or weights status were observed on the mediating effects, exploratory analyses revealed significant moderations in the b-paths.
Conclusions:
Since none of the targeted determinants could explain the increase in FV consumption, it remains unclear why the intervention was effective. Reporting on a wide range of mediators and moderators in school-based interventions is needed to reveal the pathways through which intervention effects are achieved.
The concluding chapter takes stock of findings and trends in the field, identifies key challenges, and highlights directions and methods for research. It focuses on the imbalance between the three elements comprising the field of emotion regulation in parenting: how parents regulate their own emotions, how parents regulate their own emotions in the context of parenting, and how parents regulate the child’s emotions during parent–child interaction. The most documented of the three is the regulation of the child’s emotions by the parent and its effect on child development. The chapter highlights other shortcomings, such as the importance given to parent-driven effects over child-driven effects, the predominance of correlational studies, and a tendency to simplify by considering the relationships between emotion regulation, parenting, and child development as linear and homogeneous. This chapter proposes future directions focusing on content and methodological issues to overcome the current limitations. Although much work has been done at the intersection of emotion regulation and parenting, much remains to be done. The perspectives proposed should stimulate research in this area.
Debate is ongoing on the efficacy of cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) for myalgic encephalomyelitis or chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). With an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis we investigated whether the effect of CBT varied by patient characteristics. These included post-exertional malaise (PEM), a central feature of ME/CFS according to many. We searched for randomized controlled trials similar with respect to comparison condition, outcomes and treatment-protocol. Moderation on fatigue severity (Checklist Individual Strength, subscale fatigue severity), functional impairment (Sickness Impact Profile-8) and physical functioning (Short Form-36, subscale physical functioning) was investigated using linear mixed model analyses and interaction tests. PROSPERO (CRD42022358245). Data from eight trials (n = 1298 patients) were pooled. CBT showed beneficial effects on fatigue severity (β = −11.46, 95% CI −15.13 to −7.79); p < 0.001, functional impairment (β = −448.40, 95% CI −625.58 to −271.23); p < 0.001; and physical functioning (β = 9.64, 95% CI 3.30 to 15.98); p < 0.001. The effect of CBT on fatigue severity varied by age (pinteraction = 0.003), functional impairment (pinteraction = 0.045) and physical activity pattern (pinteraction = 0.027). Patients who were younger, reported less functional impairments and had a fluctuating activity pattern benefitted more. The effect on physical functioning varied by self-efficacy (pinteraction = 0.025), with patients with higher self-efficacy benefitting most. No other moderators were found. It can be concluded from this study that CBT for ME/CFS can lead to significant reductions of fatigue, functional impairment, and physical limitations. There is no indication patients meeting different case definitions or reporting additional symptoms benefit less from CBT. Our findings do not support recent guidelines in which evidence from studies not mandating PEM was downgraded.
The Conclusion draws together the key themes explored in this book. Highlighting the crux norms of comity, collaboration, and conflict management framed by the conditions of reciprocity, reputation, and repeat play, the Conclusion defends a relational and collaborative conception of the separation of powers. Looking to new horizons, the Conclusion gestures at future lines of research opened up by the collaborative idea, including the possibility of imagining international, supra-national, and transnational law in collaborative terms. It concludes by presenting the fundamental norms of the collaborative constitution as vital in the current moment, but also as a form of ’constitutional capital’. On analogy with the influential idea of ’social capital’, it argues that the unwritten norms of the collaborative constitutional system are a precious constitutional resource we should preserve, protect, and enhance in order to create stable and sustainable constitutionalism for the twenty-first century.
Moderation is often presented as a simple virtue for lukewarm and indecisive minds, searching for a fuzzy center between the extremes. Not surprisingly, many politicians do not want to be labelled 'moderates' for fear of losing elections. Why Not Moderation? challenges this conventional image and shows that moderation is a complex virtue with a rich tradition and unexplored radical sides. Through a series of imaginary letters between a passionate moderate and two young radicals, the book outlines the distinctive political vision undergirding moderation and makes a case for why we need this virtue today in America. Drawing on clearly written and compelling sources, Craiutu offers an opportunity to rethink moderation and participate in the important public debate on what kind of society we want to live in. His book reminds us that we cannot afford to bargain away the liberal civilization and open society we have inherited from our forefathers.
This chapter describes how relationship scientists conduct research to answer questions about relationships. It explains all aspects of the research process, including how hypotheses are derived from theory, which study designs (e.g., experiments, cross-sectional studies, experience sampling) best suit specific research questions, how scientists can manipulate variables or measure variables with self-report, implicit, observational, or physiological measures, and what scientists consider when recruiting a sample to participate in their studies. This chapter also discusses how researchers approach questions about boundary conditions (when general trends do not apply) and mechanisms (the processes underlying their findings) and describes best practices for conducting ethical and reproducible research. Finally, this chapter includes a guide for how to read and evaluate empirical research articles.
Integration into the democratic system may induce the moderation of radical parties. This chapter assesses the extent of mainstreaming of populist radical right parties that follows their entry into local power. It does so through analysis of their discourse before and after attaining the leadership of the local government and considers four dimensions of mainstreaming. First, programmatic expansion and the relative salience of issues outside of their ideological core. Second, de-radicalization, in terms of the positioning towards and framing of the issue of immigration. Third, a softening of anti-establishment discourse and behaviour, considering both conflicts with other political actors and institutional reforms. And fourth, the self-presentation as normal and responsible, as opposed to a prior reputation for extremism and/or incompetence. To analyse changes across these dimensions, it draws from a range of data sources: council meetings, Facebook posts and newspaper articles. The chapter reveals cross-national differences in the extent of mainstreaming and suggests that institutional and party-strategic differences are crucial determinants of the extent and form of such change.
This chapter documents Old Comedy’s presentation of alcoholic consumption, both in a sympotic context and elsewhere, and to bring out how different was the perception of the consumption of wine by discerning citizens in a symposium, mixed with water and in moderation, from that by women or slaves, typically indiscriminately, neat and to excess
As the climate emergency worsens, the wealthiest will suffer from it the least. This is despite the disproportionate contribution of the uber rich in the Minority World – most of whom live obscenely in their opulence – to the continuing climate crisis. In contrast, poorpeople – most of them living in the Majority World – will be hit hardest and most severely by the effects of rapid global heating.
Cannabis use has been linked to poorer episodic memory. However, little is known about whether depression and sex may interact as potential moderators of this association, particularly among adolescents. The current study addresses this by examining interactions between depression symptoms and sex on the association between cannabis use and episodic memory in a large sample of adolescents.
Method:
Cross-sectional data from 360 adolescents (Mage = 17.38, SD = .75) were analyzed at the final assessment wave of a two-year longitudinal study. We used the Drug Use History Questionnaire to assess for lifetime cannabis use, and the Computerized Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children, Fourth edition to assess the number of depression symptoms in the past year. Subtests from the Wechsler Memory Scale, Fourth Edition and the California Verbal Learning Test, Second Edition were used to assess episodic memory performance.
Results:
The effect of the three-way interaction among cannabis use, depression symptoms, and sex did not have a significant impact on episodic memory performance. However, follow-up analyses revealed a significant effect of the two-way interaction of cannabis use and depression symptoms on episodic memory, such that associations between cannabis use and episodic memory were only significant at lower and average levels of depression symptoms.
Conclusions:
Contrary to our hypotheses, we found that as depression symptoms increased, the negative association between cannabis use and episodic memory diminished. Given the use of a predominantly subsyndromic sample, future studies should attempt to replicate findings among individuals with more severe depression.
The comments by Lawson and Legrenzi to our RISP/IPSR article ‘Tracing the modes of China's revisionism in the Indo-Pacific: a comparison with pre-1941 Shōwa Japan’ contribute to moving the debate on revisionism in international politics a step forward. Their notes on the several issues affecting the International Relations understanding of the phenomenon are on the same page as ours and we appear to share similar doubts and a like-minded curiosity on the subject. While grasping some key topics and shedding light on crucial shortcomings in the literature on international change, power transitions and international order, however, their observations do not come unproblematic. In this reply to their timely remarks, we highlight the perks of their argument but also stress how this falls through in providing a complete framework to understand revisionism in international politics.
This chapter features a book from the era which marks the culmination of the Ottoman intellectual efforts to reinstate traditional categories of knowledge from an imperial perspective. Ahlak-i Alai [The morals of Ali] of Kınalızade Ali Çelebi showcases the maturation of moral thinking that overlaps the central themes of Shakespearean virtue ethics. Written by a contemporary of Shakespeare and became the representative account of moral thinking in social and political domains of the Ottomans, the book is of interest to the readers of Shakespeare as it accommodates more parallels with the moral world of Englishmen than indicated in Shakespeare’s ‘turning Turk’ in Othello. Ahlak-i Alai follows in form and content the Aristotelian virtue ethics and deals with a broad spectrum of questions from the source of morality and the possibility of an individual’s moral education to the highest good and the moral order in society. It is suggested in the chapter that the common moral ground of Ottomans and Shakespeare is shaped mainly by the Aristotelian virtue ethics whose objective is to operate in moderation what is thought to be the powers of the self.
The Introduction sets the framework for the analysis and introduces the central research question of The Politics of Religious Party Change: when and why do religious parties become less anti-system? This chapter explains the significance of the question, discussing the rising prominence of religious parties globally and the need to better understand the dynamics of change in these parties. Likewise, the Introduction details the methodology used in this book and the six empirical cases: The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Tunisian Ennahdha, Turkish AKP, German Center Party, Italian PPI, and Belgian Catholic Party.