Functional impairment is a major concern among those presenting to youth mental health services and can have a profound impact on long-term outcomes. Early recognition and prevention for those at risk of functional impairment is essential to guide effective youth mental health care. Yet, identifying those at risk is challenging and impacts the appropriate allocation of indicated prevention and early intervention strategies.

We developed a prognostic model to predict a young person’s social and occupational functional impairment trajectory over 3 months. The sample included 718 young people (12–25 years) engaged in youth mental health care. A Bayesian random effects model was designed using demographic and clinical factors and model performance was evaluated on held-out test data via 5-fold cross-validation.

Eight factors were identified as the optimal set for prediction: employment, education, or training status; self-harm; psychotic-like experiences; physical health comorbidity; childhood-onset syndrome; illness type; clinical stage; and circadian disturbances. The model had an acceptable area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.56–0.81) overall, indicating its utility for predicting functional impairment over 3 months. For those with good baseline functioning, it showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.80, 0.67–0.79) for identifying individuals at risk of deterioration.

We developed and validated a prognostic model for youth mental health services to predict functional impairment trajectories over a 3-month period. This model serves as a foundation for further tool development and demonstrates its potential to guide indicated prevention and early intervention for enhancing functional outcomes or preventing functional decline.

Transition to psychosis rates within ultra-high risk (UHR) services have been declining. It may be possible to ‘enrich’ UHR cohorts based on the environmental characteristics seen more commonly in first-episode psychosis cohorts. This study aimed to determine whether transition rates varied according to the accumulated exposure to environmental risk factors at the individual (migrant status, asylum seeker/refugee status, indigenous population, cannabis/methamphetamine use), family (family history or parental separation), and neighborhood (population density, social deprivation, and fragmentation) level.

The study included UHR people aged 15–24 who attended the PACE clinic from 2012 to 2016. Cox proportional hazards models (frequentist and Bayesian) were used to assess the association between individual and accumulated factors and transition to psychosis. UHR status and transition was determined using the CAARMS. Benjamini–Hochberg was used to correct for multiple comparisons in frequentist analyses.

Of the 461 young people included, 55.5% were female and median follow-up was 307 days (IQR: 188–557) and 17.6% (n = 81) transitioned to a psychotic disorder. The proportion who transitioned increased incrementally according to the number of individual-level risk factors present (HR = 1.51, 95% CIs 1.19–1.93, p < 0.001, pcorr = 0.01). The number of family- and neighborhood-level exposures did not increase transition risk (p > 0.05). Cannabis use was the only specific risk factor significantly associated with transition (HR = 1.89, 95% CIs 1.22–2.93, pcorr = 0.03, BF = 6.74).

There is a dose–response relationship between exposure to individual-level psychosis-related environmental risk factors and transition risk in UHR patients. If replicated, this could be incorporated into a novel approach to identifying the highest-risk individuals within clinical services.

Involuntary admissions to psychiatric hospitals are on the rise. If patients at elevated risk of involuntary admission could be identified, prevention may be possible. Our aim was to develop and validate a prediction model for involuntary admission of patients receiving care within a psychiatric service system using machine learning trained on routine clinical data from electronic health records (EHRs).

EHR data from all adult patients who had been in contact with the Psychiatric Services of the Central Denmark Region between 2013 and 2021 were retrieved. We derived 694 patient predictors (covering e.g. diagnoses, medication, and coercive measures) and 1134 predictors from free text using term frequency-inverse document frequency and sentence transformers. At every voluntary inpatient discharge (prediction time), without an involuntary admission in the 2 years prior, we predicted involuntary admission 180 days ahead. XGBoost and elastic net models were trained on 85% of the dataset. The models with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were tested on the remaining 15% of the data.

The model was trained on 50 634 voluntary inpatient discharges among 17 968 patients. The cohort comprised of 1672 voluntary inpatient discharges followed by an involuntary admission. The best XGBoost and elastic net model from the training phase obtained an AUROC of 0.84 and 0.83, respectively, in the test phase.

A machine learning model using routine clinical EHR data can accurately predict involuntary admission. If implemented as a clinical decision support tool, this model may guide interventions aimed at reducing the risk of involuntary admission.

Neural predictors underlying variability in depression outcomes are poorly understood. Functional MRI measures of subgenual cortex connectivity, self-blaming and negative perceptual biases have shown prognostic potential in treatment-naïve, medication-free and fully remitting forms of major depressive disorder (MDD). However, their role in more chronic, difficult-to-treat forms of MDD is unknown.

Forty-five participants (n = 38 meeting minimum data quality thresholds) fulfilled criteria for difficult-to-treat MDD. Clinical outcome was determined by computing percentage change at follow-up from baseline (four months) on the self-reported Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (16-item). Baseline measures included self-blame-selective connectivity of the right superior anterior temporal lobe with an a priori Brodmann Area 25 region-of-interest, blood-oxygen-level-dependent a priori bilateral amygdala activation for subliminal sad vs happy faces, and resting-state connectivity of the subgenual cortex with an a priori defined ventrolateral prefrontal cortex/insula region-of-interest.

A linear regression model showed that baseline severity of depressive symptoms explained 3% of the variance in outcomes at follow-up (F[3,34] = .33, p = .81). In contrast, our three pre-registered neural measures combined, explained 32% of the variance in clinical outcomes (F[4,33] = 3.86, p = .01).

These findings corroborate the pathophysiological relevance of neural signatures of emotional biases and their potential as predictors of outcomes in difficult-to-treat depression.

Despite strong evidence of efficacy of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in the treatment of depression, no sensitive and specific predictors of ECT response have been identified. Previous meta-analyses have suggested some pre-treatment associations with response at a population level.

Using 10 years (2009–2018) of routinely collected Scottish data of people with moderate to severe depression (n = 2074) receiving ECT we tested two hypotheses: (a) that there were significant group-level associations between post-ECT clinical outcomes and pre-ECT clinical variables and (b) that it was possible to develop a method for predicting illness remission for individual patients using machine learning.

Data were analysed on a group level using descriptive statistics and association analyses as well as using individual patient prediction with machine learning methodologies, including cross-validation.

ECT is highly effective for moderate to severe depression, with a response rate of 73% and remission rate of 51%. ECT response is associated with older age, psychotic symptoms, necessity for urgent intervention, severe distress, psychomotor retardation, previous good response, lack of medication resistance, and consent status. Remission has the same associations except for necessity for urgent intervention and, in addition, history of recurrent depression and low suicide risk. It is possible to predict remission with ECT with an accuracy of 61%.

Pre-ECT clinical variables are associated with both response and remission and can help predict individual response to ECT. This predictive tool could inform shared decision-making, prevent the unnecessary use of ECT when it is unlikely to be beneficial and ensure prompt use of ECT when it is likely to be effective.