We analyse the impacts of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a microsimulation model and a rich data set that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. We account for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment affecting earnings over the life cycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. For individuals born between 1937 and 1971, cohort effects vary greatly by region, gender and education, and strongly affect life cycle earnings profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but also due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labour market participation of younger birth cohorts.

The Actuarial Profession is currently undertaking a review of its research strategy, and has decided to focus more resources on researching mortality developments. It is important that the profession is involved in partnerships with researchers from outside of the profession, bringing actuarial expertise into closer contact with other disciplines. We believe that collaboration between these different areas of expertise will provide important new insights in understanding mortality trends. This report represents the first step by the Mortality Developments Scoping Project Steering Group to map current research into mortality developments across a wide range of disciplines. The steering group is aware that the themes and literature discussed in this report are not exhaustive; however it does include areas of research not normally covered by the Actuarial Profession. The steering group welcomes comments on the report and suggestions for any areas which may not yet have been covered.

The main aim of this report is to provide an overview of the key areas of research into mortality developments across a wide range of disciplines, as well as areas of overlap and gaps in the research. The literature described is compiled from recommendations received by the Mortality Developments Scoping Project Steering Group from experts from different disciplines working in the area of mortality.

Key themes identified from recommended literature:

— the role of medicine in mortality reduction;

— the role of lifestyle and environment in mortality reduction, including smoking, socio-economic conditions and obesity;

— causes of death contributing to mortality reduction, in particular coronary heart disease;

— mortality reduction attributable to differing age groups;

— the relationship of active life expectancy to total gains in life expectancy;

— evidence of cohort effects on mortality improvement; and

— future trends in mortality developments.

Areas of overlap identified from recommended literature are:

— the overlap between literature examining the role of medicine in mortality decline and the influences on the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease; and

— the areas of overlap between various disciplines working in the field of mortality developments.

Gaps identified in recommended literature are:

— a lack of recommendations from social policy;

— few papers recommended on the role of lifestyle and behavioural factors on mortality;

— few papers recommended on causes of death other than coronary heart disease; and

— few papers recommended on potential threats to future mortality improvement.

Patterns and trends in late-life mortality are of growing financial importance. The growth in pension liabilities, both public and private, are of crucial interest to governments, insurers and companies with defined benefit pension schemes. This paper explores the patterns in international mortality data, and draws important lessons for actuaries in the United Kingdom.

In ungulates, females typically need to reach a critical threshold body weight in order to reproduce. Females born in ‘poor’ years may lose 1 year of reproduction, as they reach the critical body mass 1 year later. Some studies report also a lasting effect of low initial body weight into prime age, while several other studies have shown that nearly all prime-age females ovulate or are pregnant. However, the quality of the offspring (as measured by offspring body weight) is often not considered. We tested whether female ungulates with an initially low body weight (at around weaning) reach the same reproductive output as females with higher initial weights, and thus whether or not they are able to compensate for their initial low weight. Data on body weight of 123 533 lambs of domestic sheep Ovis aries from 73 299 litters that in turn derived from 32 359 different ewes were used. All ewes and lambs had been free-ranging on outlying pastures in Norway during the entire summer season. Ewes with an initially low body weight produced smaller offspring throughout their lifespan. Ewes with an initially low body weight also produced fewer lambs at first and second parturition, but lifetime number of offspring was not related to ewes' initial weight. We concluded that bigger was better: the smaller offspring of ewes with a low initial weight demonstrate a lasting cost on reproductive effort, with consequences for animal production systems and management of wild ungulates.

In temperate ungulates, the body weight of juveniles at the onset of winter is a crucial determinant of survival and can also influence subsequent reproductive success. However, growth may be retarded post-weaning, during winter, as a result of resource restriction and/or the demands of thermoregulation in harsh climatic conditions. Post-weaning growth rates of juveniles were compared in relation to varying density in two populations of roe deer Capreolus capreolus (Chizé, Dourdan) monitored for 10 and 15 years, respectively. Body growth of fawns continued over the post-weaning stage of the juvenile period (October–March) at the rate of 0.017 kg/day at Chizé and 0.014 kg/day at Dourdan. Deer density had no influence on this post-weaning growth rate of juveniles in their first winter. However, deer born in years of high density weighed less at a given date than those born in years of low density because of their smaller body size at the onset of winter, indicating density-dependent rates of growth before weaning. At Chizé, the sexes grew at the same rate, but sexual dimorphism was apparent as males weighed about 1 kg (8%) more than females at a given date. At Dourdan, no significant sexual dimorphism was detected, although females tended to be heavier than males at a given date. We conclude that density influences juvenile body weight (through its effect on birth weight and/or post-natal growth rate) before weaning in this species and, despite continued growth after weaning, during winter, roe deer whose early growth is limited through interspecific competition cannot compensate for this early restriction.

In 1980-82, a mailed questionnaire was completed by 3,810 pairs of adult twins enrolled on the Australian NH&MRC Twin Register. Twins were asked whether they had had their tonsils out and, if so, at what age. The sample was divided into four birth cohorts of approximately equal size, and only childhood tonsillectomy (to the age of 18) was considered. The prevalence of tonsillectomy differed markedly between cohorts, being highest in those born in the 1940s and early 1950s. Within each cohort, the prevalence was very similar in MZ and DZ twins, yet concordance was much higher in MZ twins, indicating the importance of genetic factors in predisposition to tonsillectomy. However, the proportions of variance in liability due to genetic and shared environmental factors differed markedly between cohorts. In the 1950s, when tonsillectomy was fashionable, shared environment accounted for 60% of variance and genetic factors for only 29%. However, by the early 1960s, when tonsillectomy was going out of fashion, heritability was up to 0.82 and shared environment accounted for only 10% of variance. Our results illustrate, once again, that heritability is not a constant, but depends on the precise characteristics of the population and the time at which it is studied.