Against a background of globalisation, regulatory change and the prospect of a merger with the Faculty of Actuaries, the profession is in a state of renewal. Traditional areas of actuarial expertise are likely to see employment reductions. However, our skills in risk and finance should be in demand. To ensure this we need to maintain the relevance of our examination system, develop the appropriate research resources and CPD offerings, give members the support that they need throughout their careers whilst working with employers to produce the skilled professionals that they require.

This presidential address looks at the current state of affairs, the opportunities and threats to our traditional areas of interest and the importance of developing in wider fields. It pays tribute to all the volunteers who help make it the organisation that it is whilst highlighting the need for all Fellows and students to be engaged with its future.

The Actuarial Profession is currently undertaking a review of its research strategy, and has decided to focus more resources on researching mortality developments. It is important that the profession is involved in partnerships with researchers from outside of the profession, bringing actuarial expertise into closer contact with other disciplines. We believe that collaboration between these different areas of expertise will provide important new insights in understanding mortality trends. This report represents the first step by the Mortality Developments Scoping Project Steering Group to map current research into mortality developments across a wide range of disciplines. The steering group is aware that the themes and literature discussed in this report are not exhaustive; however it does include areas of research not normally covered by the Actuarial Profession. The steering group welcomes comments on the report and suggestions for any areas which may not yet have been covered.

The main aim of this report is to provide an overview of the key areas of research into mortality developments across a wide range of disciplines, as well as areas of overlap and gaps in the research. The literature described is compiled from recommendations received by the Mortality Developments Scoping Project Steering Group from experts from different disciplines working in the area of mortality.

Key themes identified from recommended literature:

— the role of medicine in mortality reduction;

— the role of lifestyle and environment in mortality reduction, including smoking, socio-economic conditions and obesity;

— causes of death contributing to mortality reduction, in particular coronary heart disease;

— mortality reduction attributable to differing age groups;

— the relationship of active life expectancy to total gains in life expectancy;

— evidence of cohort effects on mortality improvement; and

— future trends in mortality developments.

Areas of overlap identified from recommended literature are:

— the overlap between literature examining the role of medicine in mortality decline and the influences on the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease; and

— the areas of overlap between various disciplines working in the field of mortality developments.

Gaps identified in recommended literature are:

— a lack of recommendations from social policy;

— few papers recommended on the role of lifestyle and behavioural factors on mortality;

— few papers recommended on causes of death other than coronary heart disease; and

— few papers recommended on potential threats to future mortality improvement.

Mr J. B. Orr, F.F.A. (introducing the Steering Group paper): I will take you through some of the background to the scoping study work, the mortality research that was involved, and describe the steering group. Dr Macdonald will talk you through the scoping study. I will talk about the methodology that has been adopted and about an experts' meeting that we held in March. I will provide a brief description of the sessional meeting, and then talk about the October 2009 conference, which we are working towards.

This paper focusses on some practical issues that can arise when developing methodologies for calculating benchmark figures for extreme market events, particularly in the context of the Financial Services Authority's ICAS regime. The paper limits discussion to equity and interest rate risks. Whilst not intended to constitute formal guidance, it is hoped that the material contained within the paper will be useful to practitioners. The paper acknowledges the role of prior beliefs in the choice of data to be used for modelling and its influence upon the ensuing results.

Mr R. Frankland, F.I.A. (introducing the paper): It was about fifteen months ago that we were asked by the Life Practice Executive Committee to consider whether we could attempt to assess what sort of market movements could be demonstrated to be consistent with a test described as being based on 1 in 200 year events in the context of the ICAS regime.

I am not intending to summarise the paper or its conclusions but did want to make a few remarks about the timing of the paper.

There are those who might feel it appropriate that we should embark upon that work in time to report now, when some commentators believe we are experiencing just such a 1 in 200 year event.