During infectious disease outbreaks, individuals may adopt protective measures like vaccination and physical distancing in response to awareness of disease burden. Prior work showed how feedbacks between epidemic intensity and awareness-based behaviour shape disease dynamics. These models often overlook social divisions, where population subgroups may be disproportionately impacted by a disease and more responsive to the effects of disease within their group. We develop a compartmental model of disease transmission and awareness-based protective behaviour in a population split into two groups to explore the impacts of awareness separation (relatively greater in- vs. out-group awareness of epidemic severity) and mixing separation (relatively greater in- vs. out-group contact rates). Using simulations, we show that groups that are more separated in awareness have smaller differences in mortality. Fatigue (i.e. abandonment of protective measures over time) can drive additional infection waves that can even exceed the size of the initial wave, particularly if uniform awareness drives early protection in one group, leaving that group largely susceptible to future infection. Counterintuitively, vaccine or infection-acquired immunity that is more protective against transmission and mortality may indirectly lead to more infections by reducing perceived risk of infection and therefore vaccine uptake. Awareness-based protective behaviour, including awareness separation, can fundamentally alter disease dynamics.

Social media summary: Depending on group division, behaviour based on perceived risk can change epidemic dynamics & produce large later waves.

In recent years, men who have sex with men (MSM) constitute a major group of HIV transmission in China. High primary drug-resistance (PDR) rate in MSM also represents a serious challenge for the Chinese antiretroviral therapy (ART) program. To assess the efficiency of ART in controlling HIV/AIDS infection among MSM, we developed a compartmental model for the annually reported HIV/AIDS MSM from 2007 to 2019 in the Zhejiang Province of China. R0 was 2.3946 (95% CI (2.2961–2.4881)). We predict that 90% of diagnosed HIV/AIDS individuals will have received treatment till 2020, while the proportion of the diagnosed remains as low as 40%. Even when the proportion of the diagnosed reaches 90%, R0 is still larger than the level of AIDS epidemic elimination. ART can effectively control the spread of HIV, even in the presence of drug resistance. The 90-90-90 strategy alone may not eliminate the HIV epidemic in Chinese MSM. Behavioural and biologic interventions are the most effective interventions to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic among MSM.

The first large outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with severe complications primarily caused by enterovirus 71 was reported in Taiwan in 1998. Surveillance of HFMD to evaluate the spread of HFMD with and without infection control policy is needed. We developed a new dynamic epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to fit the surveillance data on containing valuable information on the severity of HFMD in order to accurately estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) of HFMD. After fitting the empirical data, in conjunction with other relevant parameters extracted from the literature, the estimated transmission coefficients were close to 5 × 10−7 (per day) and the proportion of severe HFMD cases ranged between 0 and 0·0036 (per day). Taking into account the distribution of all parameters considered in our dynamic epidemic model, the R0 computed was 1·37 (95% confidence interval 0·24–5·84), suggesting a higher likelihood of the spread of HFMD if no infection control policy is provided. The isolation strategy against the spread of HFMD not only delayed the epidemic peak with the delayed time ranging from 4 weeks for only 20% isolation to 47 weeks for 100% isolation but also reduced total number of HFMD cases with the percentage of reduction ranging from 1·3% for only 20% isolation to 13·3% for 100% isolation. The proposed model can also be flexible for evaluating the effectiveness of two other possible policies for containing HFMD, quarantine and vaccination (if the vaccine can be developed).

Salmonella Typhimurium (STM) infection in pigs represents a considerable food safety concern. This study used mathematical modelling to evaluate the effectiveness of cleaning (faeces removal) as a measure to control STM spread among grower-finisher pigs. A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model of STM transmission through a contaminated environment was developed. Infected pigs were divided into three states according to the pathogen level being shed in their faeces. Infection transmission was evaluated using the basic reproduction number (R0) and the prevalence of infectious pigs at slaughter age. Although increased frequency and efficiency of cleaning did reduce the prevalence of STM shedding at the time of slaughter, these efforts alone were not capable of eliminating the infection from the population. The level of STM faecal shedding by infectious pigs strongly influenced the infection spread and prevalence at slaughter. To control STM in pigs, cleaning should be combined with vaccination and/or isolation of high-level shedders.

The outer plexiform layer of the retina contains a neural circuit in which cone synaptic terminals are electrically coupled and release glutamate onto wide-field and narrow-field horizontal cells. These are also electrically coupled and feed back through a GABAergic synapse to cones. In cat this circuit's structure is known in some detail, and much of the chemical architecture and neural responses are also known, yet there has been no attempt to synthesize this knowledge. We constructed a large-scale compartmental model (up to 50,000 compartments) to incorporate the known anatomical and biophysical facts. The goal was to discover how the various circuit components interact to form the cone receptive field, and thereby what possible function is implied. The simulation reproduced many features known from intracellular recordings: (1) linear response of cone and horizontal cell to intensity, (2) some aspects of temporal responses of cone and horizontal cell, (3) broad receptive field of the wide-field horizontal cell, and (4) center-surround cone receptive field (derived from a “deconvolution model"). With the network calibrated in this manner, we determined which of its features are necessary to give the cone receptive field a Gaussian center-surround shape. A Gaussian-like center that matches the center derived from the ganglion cell requires both optical blur and cone coupling: blur alone is too narrow, coupling alone gives an exponential shape without a central dome-shaped peak. A Gaussian-like surround requires both types of horizontal cell: the narrow-field type for the deep, proximal region and the wide-field type for the shallow, distal region. These results suggest that the function of the cone-horizontal cell circuit is to reduce the influence of noise by spatio-temporally filtering the cone signal before it passes through the first chemical synapse on the pathway to the brain.

Mechanisms contributing to the spread of avian influenza seem to be well identified, buthow their interplay led to the current worldwide spread pattern of H5N1 influenza is still unknowndue to the lack of effective global surveillance and relevant data. Here we develop some deterministicmodels based on the transmission cycle and modes of H5N1 and focusing on the interactionamong poultry, wild birds and environment. Some of the model parameters are obtained fromexisting literatures, and others are allowed to vary in order to assess the effectiveness of variouscontrol strategies involving bird migration, agro-ecological environments, live and dead poultrytrading, smuggling of wild birds, mechanical movement of infected materials and specific farmingpractices. Our simulations are carried out for a set of parameters that leads to the basic reproductionnumber 3.3. We show that by reducing 95% of the initial susceptible poultry population or bykilling all infected poultry birds within one day, one may control the disease outbreak in a localsetting. Our simulation shows that cleaning the environment is also a feasible and useful controlmeasure, but culling wild birds and destroying their habitat are ineffective control measures. Weuse a one dimensional PDE model to examine the contribution to the spatial spread rate by thesize of the susceptible poultry birds, the diffusion rates of the wild birds and the virus. We noticethe diffusion rate of the wild birds with high mortality has very little impact on the spread speed.But for the wild birds who can survive the infection, depending on the direction of convection,their diffusion rate can substantially increase the spread rate, indicating a significant role of themigration of these type of wild birds in the spread of the disease.

The dynamics of non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) metabolism in lactating dairy cows requires quantification if we are to understand how dietary treatments and disease influence changes in body condition (adipose reserves) and the production of milk fat. We present here a novel compartmental model that employs the pattern of plasma glucose concentrations to predict the dynamic changes that occur in plasma NEFA concentrations during an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) in lactating dairy cows. The model was developed using data obtained from ten early-lactation, Holstein-Friesian cows given a standard IVGTT. The model described all of the major features of the NEFA response to an IVGTT; it was consistent with physiological processes and provided a number of parameters that can be used to quantify NEFA production and utilization. For all of the individual cows, all model parameters were well identified and usually had CV<10% of their estimated values. In the model, elevated plasma glucose concentrations cause an increase in the level of glucose in a remote compartment, which in turn suppresses the rate of entry of NEFA to the plasma compartment. The means (±sd) for the five adjustable parameters of the model were: rate of entry of NEFA to the plasma pool (SFFA) 183±71 [μmol l−1 min−1], rate of removal (oxidation, sequestration in adipose tissue and uptake by the mammary gland for milk production) of NEFA from the plasma pool (KFFA) 0·140±0·047 [min−1], a threshold parameter (gs) representing a plasma glucose concentration above which elevated levels of plasma glucose result in entry of glucose into a ‘remote’ or inaccessible glucose compartment, 3·30±0·52 [mmol/l], a rate constant (K) describing the movement of plasma glucose (above gs) into a remote compartment 0·063±0·033 [min−1] and a parameter Φ which is a Michaelis Menten type affinity constant which modulates the extent to which remote glucose inhibits the provision of NEFA to the plasma pool, 0·812±0·276 [mmol/l]. It is concluded that the model is suitable to describe NEFA kinetics in lactating dairy cows and it may have application in other species.

The dynamics of non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) metabolism in lactating dairy cows requires quantification if we are to understand how dietary treatments and disease influence changes in body condition (adipose reserves) and the production of milk fat. Recently, Thomaseth & Pavan (2003) presented a compartmental model (Thomaseth model), which employs the pattern of plasma insulin concentrations in humans to predict the dynamic changes that occur in the plasma concentrations of glucose and NEFA during an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT). The Thomaseth model, or at least a similar model, could have potential application to the field of energy metabolism in ruminants because it would enable the estimation of parameters that describe the rates of whole body disposition of glucose, and the production and utilization of NEFA. In this study we investigated the suitability of the Thomaseth model to describe NEFA and glucose kinetics in 10 lactating Holstein-Friesian cows given a standard IVGTT in early lactation. The Thomaseth model described the general pattern of the NEFA response and, in particular, described the downward-slope and nadir in NEFA concentrations reasonably well. However, it failed to describe the initial latency period (the period before NEFA concentrations decline precipitously), and it could not describe terminal ‘rebound’ plateau in NEFA concentration. Because of these inherent problems, the parameters of the Thomaseth model cannot be considered to provide accurate estimates of rates of NEFA production or utilization. It is concluded that the Thomaseth model is not suitable for describing NEFA kinetics in lactating dairy cows.

Using equations obtained in a previous analysis, results are computed numerically which illustrate the effects of diffusion and viscosity on faecal excretion patterns of markers in ruminants. Results are first given for plug flow, a velocity gradient produced by viscosity, and diffusion, each mechanism operating alone. Plug flow gives a period during which no marker appears in the faeces, then a sharp increase in faeces marker concentration, followed by rapid washout. A velocity gradient gives a more gradual appearance of marker in the faeces followed by a slower washout. DMusiou alone (although not realistic for ruminant marker kinetics) can give early appearance of marker followed by slow washout. Combining diffusion with a velocity gradient produced by viscosity can give a range of behaviour, depending on the effective diffusion coefficient, D'; an approximate method is used to compute these solutions. Because plug flow with no velocity gradient plus diffusion gives results similar to convective flow with a velocity gradient plus diffusion, we believe it will not be possible to determine the main mechanisms defining marker outtiow patterns from observations of marker kinetics alone, and more detailed investigations will be needed. Although estimates of quantities such as mean transit time are unaffected by detailed mechanism, the interpretations of measures such as sigmoidicity, sharpness of the faecal marker concentration v. time curve, and length and nature of the washout tail are highly dependent on mechanism.

A new model for describing forage degradation kinetics during incubation in the rumen using polyester bags is presented. Attention is given to dealing with the problem of deviations from exponential behaviour in the early stages of degradation by devising a function capable of representing exponential or sigmoidal trends. This is achieved by allowing part of the fractional degradation rate to vary with time of incubation, thus enabling responses other than those expected under simple first-order kinetics to be described. Seven sets of data consisting of 620 curves were analysed to study the performance of the new model compared with a commonly used exponential model. The proportion of significantly better fits varied from set to set. The new model deals successfully with sigmoidal behaviour and, thus, provides a means of analysing the degradation profiles of low-quality