We assessed patterns of enteric infections caused by 14 pathogens, in a longitudinal cohort study of sequelae in British Columbia (BC) Canada, 2005–2014. Our population cohort of 5.8 million individuals was followed for an average of 7.5 years/person; during this time, 40 523 individuals experienced 42 308 incident laboratory-confirmed, provincially reported enteric infections (96.4 incident infections per 100 000 person-years). Most individuals (38 882/40 523; 96%) had only one, but 4% had multiple concurrent infections or more than one infection across the study. Among individuals with more than one infection, the pathogens and combinations occurring most frequently per individual matched the pathogens occurring most frequently in the BC population. An additional 298 557 new fee-for-service physician visits and hospitalisations for enteric infections, that did not coincide with a reported enteric infection, also occurred, and some may be potentially unreported enteric infections. Our findings demonstrate that sequelae risk analyses should explore the possible impacts of multiple infections, and that estimating risk for individuals who may have had a potentially unreported enteric infection is warranted.

The Ethiopian government has several initiatives to expand and intensify the dairy industry; however, the risk of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spread is a challenge. To assess the rate of expansion and risk factors for transmission of bTB within-herds, we carried out a repeated cross-sectional survey at two time points, 2016/17 and 2018, in three regional cities, namely, Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle, representing the emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. The total number of herds involved was 128, comprising an average of 2303 cattle in each round. The Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test was used to identify reactor status and data on herd-level risk factors were collected using a structured questionnaire. In the first survey, the apparent prevalence of bTB, as measured by the SICCT test, was 4.5% (95% CI 3.7–5.4%) at the individual animal-level and 24% (95% CI 17.5–32%) at the herd-level. There was no statistically significant change in the overall apparent prevalence or regional distribution at the second survey, consistent with the infection being endemic. The incidence rate was estimated at 3.6 (95% CI 2.8–4.5) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.0–12.6) cases/100 cattle (or herd)-years at the animal- and herd-levels, respectively. Risk factors significantly associated with the within-herd transmission of bTB were age group and within-herd apparent prevalence at the start of the observation period. We noted that farmers voluntarily took steps to remove reactor cattle from their herds as a consequence of the information shared after the first survey. Removal of reactors between surveys was associated with a reduced risk of transmission within these herds. However, with no regulatory barriers to the sale of reactor animals, such actions could potentially lead to further spread between herds. We therefore advocate the importance of setting up regulations and then establishing a systematic bTB surveillance programme to monitor the impact prior to implementing any control measures in Ethiopia.

Obesity phenotypes can be regarded as an indicator of CVD risk factors. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of adolescents with different obesity phenotypes and the role of obesity phenotypes in prediction of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in adults. For this population-based cohort study, 2159 adolescents aged 11–18 years were included. Subjects were divided into four obesity phenotype groups: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically healthy obese (MHO), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO). Cox proportional hazard modelling was used to estimate the incidence of the MetS in adults after a median follow-up of 11·3 years. The incidence rate of the MetS in early adulthood was 111·6 (95 % CI 98·7, 126·3) per 10 000 person-years, with higher values in boys (210·1 (95 % CI 183·0, 241·3)), compared with girls (39·7 (95 % CI 30·2, 52·1)). In the age- and adult BMI-adjusted model, the hazard ratio of the MetS in adulthood for boys was 3·33 (95 % CI 2·08, 5·32) among MUO phenotype followed less than 6 years, 1·71 (95 % CI 1·01, 2·90) among MHO, and 2·52 (95 % CI 1·72, 3·68) among MUNW. All associations were attenuated in girls except for MUO phenotype followed less than 6 years (5·72 (95 % CI 2·14, 15·3)). In conclusion, MUNW and MHO phenotypes in boys, but not in girls, and MUO phenotype in both sexes with less than 6 years of follow-up increased the risk of adult MetS compared with MHNW. It seems that lack of obesity at least in boys does not protect them from MetS development in adulthood.

Over the past two decades Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) has appeared as a major public health threat. We performed a retrospective study based on the records of patients hospitalized for CDI at the University Hospital in Krakow, Poland, between 2008 and 2014. In the study period, CDI occurred in 1009 individuals. There were 790 (78%) individuals who developed infection only once, whereas 219 (22%) developed infection more than once. The percentage of deaths within 14 days of CDI confirmation was 2·4%, with a mean age of 74·2 ± 15·9 years. Crude mortality was 12·9% in medical wards, 5·6% for surgical wards and 27·7% in the ICU setting. The time span between diagnosis and death was 5·1 days on average. Between 2008 and 2012 a 6·5-fold increase of CDI frequency with a posterior stabilization and even reduction in 2013 and 2014 was observed. According to the data analysed, 2/3 patients in our population developed CDI during their hospitalization even though they were admitted for different reasons. Medical wards pose a significantly higher risk of CDI than the surgical ones. Age is a risk factor for CDI recurrence. In the case of patients who died, death occurred shortly after diagnosis. The first CDI episode poses much higher risk of mortality than the consecutive ones.

This study analyzes the incidence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among flood victims, between different flood intensities, and between different time points after a flood. A search of several electronic literature databases was conducted to collect data on the incidence of PTSD after a flood. Loney criteria for research quality were used to evaluate the quality of selected search results. The combined incidence of PTSD was estimated using the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation method. Subgroup analyses were conducted on different trauma intensities and different time points after a flood. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of research quality. Fourteen articles were included in this meta-analysis, including a total of 40 600 flood victims; 3862 victims were diagnosed with PTSD. The combined incidence of PTSD was 15.74%. The subgroup analyses showed that the incidence of PTSD in victims who experienced severe and moderate flood intensity was higher than that in victims who experienced mild flood intensity. The incidence of PTSD was lower at 6 or more months after a flood (11.45%) than within 6 months (16.01%) of a flood. In conclusion, the incidence of PTSD among floods of different trauma intensities was statistically significant. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2015;9:329-333)

Diarrhoeal diseases are major causes of morbidity and mortality in developing countries. This longitudinal study aimed to identify controllable environmental drivers of intestinal infections amidst a highly contaminated drinking water supply in urban slums and villages of Vellore, Tamil Nadu in southern India. Three hundred households with children (<5 years) residing in two semi-urban slums and three villages were visited weekly for 12–18 months to monitor gastrointestinal morbidity. Households were surveyed at baseline to obtain information on environmental and behavioural factors relevant to diarrhoea. There were 258 diarrhoeal episodes during the follow-up period, resulting in an overall incidence rate of 0·12 episodes/person-year. Incidence and longitudinal prevalence rates of diarrhoea were twofold higher in the slums compared to rural communities (P < 0·0002). Regardless of study site, diarrhoeal incidence was highest in infants (<1 year) at 1·07 episodes/person-year, and decreased gradually with increasing age. Increasing diarrhoeal rates were associated with presence of children (<5 years), domesticated animals and low socioeconomic status. In rural communities, open-field defecation was associated with diarrhoea in young children. This study demonstrates the contribution of site-specific environmental and behavioural factors in influencing endemic rates of urban and rural diarrhoea in a region with highly contaminated drinking water.

The Poisson model can be applied to the count of events occurring within a specific time period. The main feature of the Poisson model is the assumption that the mean and variance of the count data are equal. However, this equal mean-variance relationship rarely occurs in observational data. In most cases, the observed variance is larger than the assumed variance, which is called overdispersion. Further, when the observed data involve excessive zero counts, the problem of overdispersion results in underestimating the variance of the estimated parameter, and thus produces a misleading conclusion. We illustrated the use of four models for overdispersed count data that may be attributed to excessive zeros. These are Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial models. The example data in this article deal with the number of incidents involving human papillomavirus infection. The four models resulted in differing statistical inferences. The Poisson model, which is widely used in epidemiology research, underestimated the standard errors and overstated the significance of some covariates.

We estimate the incidence rate, serological conversion rate and basic case reproduction number (R0) of Leishmania infantum from a cohort study of 126 domestic dogs exposed to natural infection rates over 2 years on Marajó Island, Pará State, Brazil. The analysis includes new methods for (1) determining the number of seropositives in cross-sectional serological data, (2) identifying seroconversions in longitudinal studies, based on both the number of antibody units and their rate of change through time, (3) estimating incidence and serological pre-patent periods and (4) calculating R0 for a potentially fatal, vector-borne disease under seasonal transmission. Longitudinal and cross-sectional serological (ELISA) analyses gave similar estimates of the proportion of dogs positive. However, longitudinal analysis allowed the calculation of pre-patent periods, and hence the more accurate estimation of incidence: an infection–conversion model fitted by maximum likelihood to serological data yielded seasonally varying per capita incidence rates with a mean of 8·66×10−3/day (mean time to infection 115 days, 95% C.L. 107–126 days), and a median pre-patent period of 94 (95% C.L. 82–111) days. These results were used in conjunction with theory and dog demographic data to estimate the basic reproduction number, R0, as 5·9 (95% C.L. 4·4–7·4). R0 is a determinant of the scale of the leishmaniasis control problem, and we comment on the options for control.