We present a detailed derivation and analysis of a model consisting of seven coupled delay differential equations for louse-borne relapsing fever (LBRF), a disease transmitted from human to human by the body louse Pediculus humanus humanus. Delays model the latency stages of LBRF in humans and lice, which vary in duration from individual to individual, and are therefore modelled using distributed delays with relatively general kernels. A particular feature of the transmission of LBRF to a human is that it involves the death of the louse, usually by crushing which has the effect of releasing the infected body fluids of the dead louse onto the hosts skin. Careful attention is paid to this aspect. We obtain results on existence, positivity, boundedness, linear and nonlinear stability, and persistence. We also derive a basic reproduction number R0 for the model and discuss its dependence on the model parameters. Our analysis of the model suggests that effective louse control without crushing should be the best strategy for LBRF eradication. We conclude that simple measures and precautions should, in general, be sufficient to facilitate disease eradication.

Plasmodium knowlesi is increasingly recognized as a major cause of malaria in Southeast Asia. Anopheles leucosphyrous group mosquitoes transmit the parasite and natural hosts include long-tailed and pig-tailed macaques. Despite early laboratory experiments demonstrating successful passage of infection between humans, the true role that humans play in P. knowlesi epidemiology remains unclear. The threat posed by its introduction into immunologically naïve populations is unknown despite being a public health priority for this region. A two-host species mathematical model was constructed to analyse this threat. Global sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo methods highlighted the biological processes of greatest influence to transmission. These included parameters known to be influential in classic mosquito-borne disease models (e.g. vector longevity); however, interesting ecological components that are specific to this system were also highlighted: while local vectors likely have intrinsic preferences for certain host species, how plastic these preferences are, and how this is shaped by local conditions, are key determinants of parasite transmission potential. Invasion analysis demonstrates that this behavioural plasticity can qualitatively impact the probability of an epidemic sparked by imported infection. Identifying key vector sub/species and studying their biting behaviours constitute important next steps before models can better assist in strategizing disease control.

The dilution effect (DE) has been reported in many diseases, but its generality is still highly disputed. Most current criticisms of DE are related to animal diseases. Particularly, some critical studies argued that DE is less likely to occur in complex environments. Here our meta-analyses demonstrated that the magnitude of DE did not differ between animal vs plant diseases. Moreover, DE generally occurs in all three subgroups of animal diseases, namely direct-transmitted diseases, vector-borne diseases and diseases caused by parasites with free-living stages. Our findings serve as an important contribution to understanding the generality of DE.

Most vector-borne diseases infect multiple host species, but disentangling the relative importance of different host species to transmission can be complex. Here we study how host species’ abundance and competence (duration and titre of parasitaemia) influence host importance during epidemic scenarios. We evaluate this theory using Ross River virus (RRV, family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus), a multi-host mosquito-borne disease with significant human health impacts across Australia and Papua New Guinea. We used host contribution models to find the importance of key hosts (possums, wallabies, kangaroos, horses, humans) in typical mammal communities around five Australian epidemic centres. We found humans and possums contributed most to epidemic RRV transmission, owing to their high abundances, generally followed by macropods. This supports humans as spillover hosts, and that human–mosquito and possum–mosquito transmission is predominant during epidemics. Sensitivity analyses indicate these findings to be robust across epidemic centres. We emphasize the importance of considering abundance and competence in identifying key hosts (during epidemics in this case), and that competence alone is inadequate. Knowledge of host importance in disease transmission may help to equip health agencies to bring about greater effectiveness of disease mitigation strategies.

Epidemiological studies use georeferenced health data to identify disease clusters but the accuracy of this georeferencing is obfuscated by incorrectly assigning the source of infection and by aggregating case data to larger geographical areas. Often, place of residence (residence) is used as a proxy for the source of infection (source) which may not be accurate. Using a 21-year dataset from South Australia of human infections with the mosquito-borne Ross River virus, we found that 37% of cases were believed to have been acquired away from home. We constructed two risk maps using age-standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs) calculated using residence and patient-reported source. Both maps confirm significant inter-suburb variation in SMRs. Areas frequently named as the source (but not residence) and the highest-risk suburbs both tend to be tourist locations with vector mosquito habitat, and camping or outdoor recreational opportunities. We suggest the highest-risk suburbs as places to focus on for disease control measures. We also use a novel application of ambient population data (LandScan) to improve the interpretation of these risk maps and propose how this approach can aid in implementing disease abatement measures on a smaller scale than for which disease data are available.

Although many parasites are transmitted between hosts by a suite of arthropod vectors, the impact of vector biodiversity on parasite transmission is poorly understood. Positive relationships between host infection prevalence and vector species richness (SR) may operate through multiple mechanisms, including (i) increased vector abundance, (ii) a sampling effect in which species of high vectorial capacity are more likely to occur in species-rich communities, and (iii) functional diversity whereby communities comprised species with distinct phenologies may extend the duration of seasonal transmission. Teasing such mechanisms apart is impeded by a lack of appropriate data, yet could highlight a neglected role for functional diversity in parasite transmission. We used statistical modelling of extensive host, vector and microparasite data to test the hypothesis that functional diversity leading to longer seasonal transmission explained variable levels of disease in a wildlife population. We additionally developed a simple transmission model to guide our expectation of how an increased transmission season translates to infection prevalence. Our study demonstrates that vector SR is associated with increased levels of disease reporting, but not via increases in vector abundance or via a sampling effect. Rather, the relationship operates by extending the length of seasonal transmission, in line with theoretical predictions.

Expansion of sandflies and increasing pet travel have raised concerns about canine leishmaniasis (CanL) spread to new areas of Europe. This study aimed to estimate the probability of CanL introduction and persistence following movements of infected dogs. Stochastic modelling was used to estimate the probabilities of (1) CanL infection during travels or imports of infected dogs (Pinf and PinfCA, respectively), (2) CanL persistence in a dog network with sandflies after introduction of an infected dog (Pper), and (3) persistence in a CanL-free region (Pper region) for N dogs moving between endemic and free regions. Different mitigation measures (MMs) were assessed. Pinf [7·8%, 95% predictive interval (PI) 2·6–16·4] and Pper (72·0%, 95% PI 67·8–76·0) were reduced by use of repellent, vaccine, prophylactic medication, and insecticide, in decreasing order of effectiveness. Testing and exclusion of positive dogs was most effective in reducing Pper region for a small N. The spread of CanL to CanL-free areas with sandflies is thus likely, but can be reduced by MMs.

Climate change is widely expected to cause the emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases, and predictive models are needed so that we can be prepared. We developed a climate-sensitive, predictive, model that describes the risk of bluetongue, an arboviral disease of ruminants, which has emerged dramatically in Europe. Developing the predictive bluetongue model led to the identification of numerous gaps in both the understanding and the availability of data. These mostly pertain to the vectors and their interaction with hosts. Closing these gaps will allow better models, with more precise predictions, to be produced. These research gaps apply to many other arboviral diseases as well. As a consequence, there needs to be an increase in research on the vectors that transmit arboviral diseases. Priorities are the training of a new generation of taxonomists, studies on the field biology of potential vectors, and increased coordination of vector surveillance and recording between countries facing similar threats.

Interpreting spatial patterns in the abundance of species over time is a fundamental cornerstone of ecological research. For many species, this type of analysis is hampered by datasets that contain a large proportion of zeros, and data that are overdispersed and spatially autocorrelated. This is particularly true for insects, for which abundance data can fluctuate from zero to many thousands in the space of weeks. Increasingly, an understanding of the ways in which environmental variation drives spatial and temporal patterns in the distribution, abundance and phenology of insects is required for management of pests and vector-borne diseases. In this study, we combine the use of smoothing techniques and generalised linear mixed models to relate environmental drivers to key phenological patterns of two species of biting midges, Culicoides pulicaris and C. impunctatus, of which C. pulicaris has been implicated in transmission of bluetongue in Europe. In so doing, we demonstrate analytical tools for linking the phenology of species with key environmental drivers, despite using a relatively small dataset containing overdispersed and zero-inflated data. We demonstrate the importance of landcover and climatic variables in determining the seasonal abundance of these two vector species, and highlight the need for more empirical data on the effects of temperature and precipitation on the life history traits of palearctic Culicoides spp. in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus that is maintained in a bird–mosquito transmission cycle. Humans, horses and other non-avian vertebrates are usually incidental hosts, but evidence is accumulating that this might not always be the case. Historically, WNV has been associated with asymptomatic infections and sporadic disease outbreaks in humans and horses in Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. However, since 1994, the virus has caused frequent outbreaks of severe neuroinvasive disease in humans and horses in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. In 1999, WNV underwent a dramatic expansion of its geographic range, and was reported for the first time in the Western Hemisphere during an outbreak of human and equine encephalitis in New York City. The outbreak was accompanied by extensive and unprecedented avian mortality. Since then, WNV has dispersed across the Western Hemisphere and is now found throughout the USA, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. WNV has been responsible for >27,000 human cases, >25,000 equine cases and hundreds of thousands of avian deaths in the USA but, surprisingly, there have been only sparse reports of WNV disease in vertebrates in the Caribbean and Latin America. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV with particular emphasis on its transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology.

In the past few decades, vector-borne diseases have been spreading into countries previously free of these agents. It is necessary for a surveillance method to be tailored to the biology of these agents in order to detect their incursion. Using a sentinel herd system, it is possible to target high-risk areas where occurrence is most probably due to vector presence. Since the 1970s, diseases such as Akabane, vesicular stomatitis and Bluetongue disease have successfully been monitored using cattle herds as sentinels in many countries such as Saudi Arabia, Australia, China, Indonesia, Sultanate of Oman and most recently in countries in Western Europe. This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of sentinel herd surveillance systems in general. In order to determine their efficacy, the following criteria were found to be essential: the choice of sentinel locations, sentinel animal, seasonality of sampling and diagnostic testing methods. We conclude that due to its ability to focus on a specific disease, sentinel herd systems have been successful in the early detection of the spread of a targeted agent. This review is used as a basis for recommendations for the development of future sentinel herd systems.