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This series of high quality upper-division textbooks and expository monographs covers all areas of stochastic applicable mathematics. The topics range from pure and applied statistics to probability theory, operations research, mathematical programming, and optimisation. The books contain clear presentations of new developments in the field and also of the state of the art in classical methods. While emphasising rigorous treatment of theoretical methods, the books also contain applications and discussions of new techniques made possible by advances in computational practice.

  • Editorial Boards: R. Gill, Universiteit Leiden, B. D. Ripley, University of Oxford, S. Ross, University of Southern California, Z. Ghahramani, University of Cambridge, M. Stein, Rutgers University, New Jersey and University of Chicago, F. P. Kelly, University of Cambridge

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57 results in Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics

Page 1 of 3

Dynamics on Graphs
  • 2nd edition
  • Rick Durrett
  • Coming soon
  • Expected online publication date:
    April 2025
    Print publication:
    30 April 2025
  • This extensive revision of the 2007 book 'Random Graph Dynamics,' covering the current state of mathematical research in the field, is ideal for researchers and graduate students. It considers a small number of types of graphs, primarily the configuration model and inhomogeneous random graphs. However, it investigates a wide variety of dynamics. The author describes results for the convergence to equilibrium for random walks on random graphs as well as topics that have emerged as mature research areas since the publication of the first edition, such as epidemics, the contact process, voter models, and coalescing random walk. Chapter 8 discusses a new challenging and largely uncharted direction: systems in which the graph and the states of their vertices coevolve.

Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape
  • A Distributional Regression Approach, with Applications
  • Mikis D. Stasinopoulos, Thomas Kneib, Nadja Klein, Andreas Mayr, Gillian Z. Heller
  • Published online:
    22 February 2024
    Print publication:
    29 February 2024
  • An emerging field in statistics, distributional regression facilitates the modelling of the complete conditional distribution, rather than just the mean. This book introduces generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) – one of the most important classes of distributional regression. Taking a broad perspective, the authors consider penalized likelihood inference, Bayesian inference, and boosting as potential ways of estimating models and illustrate their usage in complex applications. Written by the international team who developed GAMLSS, the text's focus on practical questions and problems sets it apart. Case studies demonstrate how researchers in statistics and other data-rich disciplines can use the model in their work, exploring examples ranging from fetal ultrasounds to social media performance metrics. The R code and data sets for the case studies are available on the book's companion website, allowing for replication and further study.

Random Graphs and Complex Networks
  • Volume 2
  • Remco van der Hofstad
  • Published online:
    08 February 2024
    Print publication:
    08 February 2024
  • Complex networks are key to describing the connected nature of the society that we live in. This book, the second of two volumes, describes the local structure of random graph models for real-world networks and determines when these models have a giant component and when they are small-, and ultra-small, worlds. This is the first book to cover the theory and implications of local convergence, a crucial technique in the analysis of sparse random graphs. Suitable as a resource for researchers and PhD-level courses, it uses examples of real-world networks, such as the Internet and citation networks, as motivation for the models that are discussed, and includes exercises at the end of each chapter to develop intuition. The book closes with an extensive discussion of related models and problems that demonstratemodern approaches to network theory, such as community structure and directed models.

Modern Discrete Probability
  • An Essential Toolkit
  • Sébastien Roch
  • Published online:
    14 December 2023
    Print publication:
    18 January 2024
  • Providing a graduate-level introduction to discrete probability and its applications, this book develops a toolkit of essential techniques for analysing stochastic processes on graphs, other random discrete structures, and algorithms. Topics covered include the first and second moment methods, concentration inequalities, coupling and stochastic domination, martingales and potential theory, spectral methods, and branching processes. Each chapter expands on a fundamental technique, outlining common uses and showing them in action on simple examples and more substantial classical results. The focus is predominantly on non-asymptotic methods and results. All chapters provide a detailed background review section, plus exercises and signposts to the wider literature. Readers are assumed to have undergraduate-level linear algebra and basic real analysis, while prior exposure to graduate-level probability is recommended. This much-needed broad overview of discrete probability could serve as a textbook or as a reference for researchers in mathematics, statistics, data science, computer science and engineering.

The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails
  • Properties, Emergence, and Estimation
  • Jayakrishnan Nair, Adam Wierman, Bert Zwart
  • Published online:
    17 May 2022
    Print publication:
    09 June 2022
  • Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.

Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Context
  • Reproducibility, Inference, and Science
  • Volume 52
  • Michael P. Fay, Erica H. Brittain
  • Published online:
    17 April 2022
    Print publication:
    05 May 2022
  • Fay and Brittain present statistical hypothesis testing and compatible confidence intervals, focusing on application and proper interpretation. The emphasis is on equipping applied statisticians with enough tools - and advice on choosing among them - to find reasonable methods for almost any problem and enough theory to tackle new problems by modifying existing methods. After covering the basic mathematical theory and scientific principles, tests and confidence intervals are developed for specific types of data. Essential methods for applications are covered, such as general procedures for creating tests (e.g., likelihood ratio, bootstrap, permutation, testing from models), adjustments for multiple testing, clustering, stratification, causality, censoring, missing data, group sequential tests, and non-inferiority tests. New methods developed by the authors are included throughout, such as melded confidence intervals for comparing two samples and confidence intervals associated with Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests and Kaplan-Meier estimates. Examples, exercises, and the R package asht support practical use.

Mathematical Foundations of Infinite-Dimensional Statistical Models
  • Evarist Giné, Richard Nickl
  • Published online:
    05 March 2021
    Print publication:
    25 March 2021
  • In nonparametric and high-dimensional statistical models, the classical Gauss–Fisher–Le Cam theory of the optimality of maximum likelihood estimators and Bayesian posterior inference does not apply, and new foundations and ideas have been developed in the past several decades. This book gives a coherent account of the statistical theory in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces. The mathematical foundations include self-contained 'mini-courses' on the theory of Gaussian and empirical processes, approximation and wavelet theory, and the basic theory of function spaces. The theory of statistical inference in such models - hypothesis testing, estimation and confidence sets - is presented within the minimax paradigm of decision theory. This includes the basic theory of convolution kernel and projection estimation, but also Bayesian nonparametrics and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation. In a final chapter the theory of adaptive inference in nonparametric models is developed, including Lepski's method, wavelet thresholding, and adaptive inference for self-similar functions. Winner of the 2017 PROSE Award for Mathematics.

Spectral Analysis for Univariate Time Series
  • Donald B. Percival, Andrew T. Walden
  • Published online:
    17 March 2020
    Print publication:
    19 March 2020
  • Spectral analysis is widely used to interpret time series collected in diverse areas. This book covers the statistical theory behind spectral analysis and provides data analysts with the tools needed to transition theory into practice. Actual time series from oceanography, metrology, atmospheric science and other areas are used in running examples throughout, to allow clear comparison of how the various methods address questions of interest. All major nonparametric and parametric spectral analysis techniques are discussed, with emphasis on the multitaper method, both in its original formulation involving Slepian tapers and in a popular alternative using sinusoidal tapers. The authors take a unified approach to quantifying the bandwidth of different nonparametric spectral estimates. An extensive set of exercises allows readers to test their understanding of theory and practical analysis. The time series used as examples and R language code for recreating the analyses of the series are available from the book's website.

Model-Based Clustering and Classification for Data Science
  • With Applications in R
  • Charles Bouveyron, Gilles Celeux, T. Brendan Murphy, Adrian E. Raftery
  • Published online:
    14 June 2019
    Print publication:
    11 July 2019
  • Cluster analysis finds groups in data automatically. Most methods have been heuristic and leave open such central questions as: how many clusters are there? Which method should I use? How should I handle outliers? Classification assigns new observations to groups given previously classified observations, and also has open questions about parameter tuning, robustness and uncertainty assessment. This book frames cluster analysis and classification in terms of statistical models, thus yielding principled estimation, testing and prediction methods, and sound answers to the central questions. It builds the basic ideas in an accessible but rigorous way, with extensive data examples and R code; describes modern approaches to high-dimensional data and networks; and explains such recent advances as Bayesian regularization, non-Gaussian model-based clustering, cluster merging, variable selection, semi-supervised and robust classification, clustering of functional data, text and images, and co-clustering. Written for advanced undergraduates in data science, as well as researchers and practitioners, it assumes basic knowledge of multivariate calculus, linear algebra, probability and statistics.

Probability
  • Theory and Examples
  • 5th edition
  • Rick Durrett
  • Published online:
    05 April 2019
    Print publication:
    18 April 2019
  • This lively introduction to measure-theoretic probability theory covers laws of large numbers, central limit theorems, random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theorems, and Brownian motion. Concentrating on results that are the most useful for applications, this comprehensive treatment is a rigorous graduate text and reference. Operating under the philosophy that the best way to learn probability is to see it in action, the book contains extended examples that apply the theory to concrete applications. This fifth edition contains a new chapter on multidimensional Brownian motion and its relationship to partial differential equations (PDEs), an advanced topic that is finding new applications. Setting the foundation for this expansion, Chapter 7 now features a proof of Itô's formula. Key exercises that previously were simply proofs left to the reader have been directly inserted into the text as lemmas. The new edition re-instates discussion about the central limit theorem for martingales and stationary sequences.

High-Dimensional Statistics
  • A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint
  • Martin J. Wainwright
  • Published online:
    12 February 2019
    Print publication:
    21 February 2019
  • Recent years have witnessed an explosion in the volume and variety of data collected in all scientific disciplines and industrial settings. Such massive data sets present a number of challenges to researchers in statistics and machine learning. This book provides a self-contained introduction to the area of high-dimensional statistics, aimed at the first-year graduate level. It includes chapters that are focused on core methodology and theory - including tail bounds, concentration inequalities, uniform laws and empirical process, and random matrices - as well as chapters devoted to in-depth exploration of particular model classes - including sparse linear models, matrix models with rank constraints, graphical models, and various types of non-parametric models. With hundreds of worked examples and exercises, this text is intended both for courses and for self-study by graduate students and researchers in statistics, machine learning, and related fields who must understand, apply, and adapt modern statistical methods suited to large-scale data.

High-Dimensional Probability
  • An Introduction with Applications in Data Science
  • Roman Vershynin
  • Published online:
    29 September 2018
    Print publication:
    27 September 2018
  • High-dimensional probability offers insight into the behavior of random vectors, random matrices, random subspaces, and objects used to quantify uncertainty in high dimensions. Drawing on ideas from probability, analysis, and geometry, it lends itself to applications in mathematics, statistics, theoretical computer science, signal processing, optimization, and more. It is the first to integrate theory, key tools, and modern applications of high-dimensional probability. Concentration inequalities form the core, and it covers both classical results such as Hoeffding's and Chernoff's inequalities and modern developments such as the matrix Bernstein's inequality. It then introduces the powerful methods based on stochastic processes, including such tools as Slepian's, Sudakov's, and Dudley's inequalities, as well as generic chaining and bounds based on VC dimension. A broad range of illustrations is embedded throughout, including classical and modern results for covariance estimation, clustering, networks, semidefinite programming, coding, dimension reduction, matrix completion, machine learning, compressed sensing, and sparse regression.

Predictive Statistics
  • Analysis and Inference beyond Models
  • Bertrand S. Clarke, Jennifer L. Clarke
  • Published online:
    27 April 2018
    Print publication:
    12 April 2018
  • All scientific disciplines prize predictive success. Conventional statistical analyses, however, treat prediction as secondary, instead focusing on modeling and hence estimation, testing, and detailed physical interpretation, tackling these tasks before the predictive adequacy of a model is established. This book outlines a fully predictive approach to statistical problems based on studying predictors; the approach does not require predictors correspond to a model although this important special case is included in the general approach. Throughout, the point is to examine predictive performance before considering conventional inference. These ideas are traced through five traditional subfields of statistics, helping readers to refocus and adopt a directly predictive outlook. The book also considers prediction via contemporary 'black box' techniques and emerging data types and methodologies where conventional modeling is so difficult that good prediction is the main criterion available for evaluating the performance of a statistical method. Well-documented open-source R code in a Github repository allows readers to replicate examples and apply techniques to other investigations.

Fundamentals of Nonparametric Bayesian Inference
  • Subhashis Ghosal, Aad van der Vaart
  • Published online:
    22 July 2017
    Print publication:
    26 June 2017
  • Explosive growth in computing power has made Bayesian methods for infinite-dimensional models - Bayesian nonparametrics - a nearly universal framework for inference, finding practical use in numerous subject areas. Written by leading researchers, this authoritative text draws on theoretical advances of the past twenty years to synthesize all aspects of Bayesian nonparametrics, from prior construction to computation and large sample behavior of posteriors. Because understanding the behavior of posteriors is critical to selecting priors that work, the large sample theory is developed systematically, illustrated by various examples of model and prior combinations. Precise sufficient conditions are given, with complete proofs, that ensure desirable posterior properties and behavior. Each chapter ends with historical notes and numerous exercises to deepen and consolidate the reader's understanding, making the book valuable for both graduate students and researchers in statistics and machine learning, as well as in application areas such as econometrics and biostatistics.

Long-Range Dependence and Self-Similarity
  • Vladas Pipiras, Murad S. Taqqu
  • Published online:
    11 May 2017
    Print publication:
    18 April 2017
  • This modern and comprehensive guide to long-range dependence and self-similarity starts with rigorous coverage of the basics, then moves on to cover more specialized, up-to-date topics central to current research. These topics concern, but are not limited to, physical models that give rise to long-range dependence and self-similarity; central and non-central limit theorems for long-range dependent series, and the limiting Hermite processes; fractional Brownian motion and its stochastic calculus; several celebrated decompositions of fractional Brownian motion; multidimensional models for long-range dependence and self-similarity; and maximum likelihood estimation methods for long-range dependent time series. Designed for graduate students and researchers, each chapter of the book is supplemented by numerous exercises, some designed to test the reader's understanding, while others invite the reader to consider some of the open research problems in the field today.

Probability on Trees and Networks
  • Russell Lyons, Yuval Peres
  • Published online:
    19 January 2017
    Print publication:
    20 January 2017
  • Starting around the late 1950s, several research communities began relating the geometry of graphs to stochastic processes on these graphs. This book, twenty years in the making, ties together research in the field, encompassing work on percolation, isoperimetric inequalities, eigenvalues, transition probabilities, and random walks. Written by two leading researchers, the text emphasizes intuition, while giving complete proofs and more than 850 exercises. Many recent developments, in which the authors have played a leading role, are discussed, including percolation on trees and Cayley graphs, uniform spanning forests, the mass-transport technique, and connections on random walks on graphs to embedding in Hilbert space. This state-of-the-art account of probability on networks will be indispensable for graduate students and researchers alike.

Random Graphs and Complex Networks
  • Remco van der Hofstad
  • Published online:
    12 January 2017
    Print publication:
    22 December 2016
  • This rigorous introduction to network science presents random graphs as models for real-world networks. Such networks have distinctive empirical properties and a wealth of new models have emerged to capture them. Classroom tested for over ten years, this text places recent advances in a unified framework to enable systematic study. Designed for a master's-level course, where students may only have a basic background in probability, the text covers such important preliminaries as convergence of random variables, probabilistic bounds, coupling, martingales, and branching processes. Building on this base - and motivated by many examples of real-world networks, including the Internet, collaboration networks, and the World Wide Web - it focuses on several important models for complex networks and investigates key properties, such as the connectivity of nodes. Numerous exercises allow students to develop intuition and experience in working with the models.

Confidence, Likelihood, Probability
  • Statistical Inference with Confidence Distributions
  • Tore Schweder, Nils Lid Hjort
  • Published online:
    05 March 2016
    Print publication:
    24 February 2016
  • This lively book lays out a methodology of confidence distributions and puts them through their paces. Among other merits, they lead to optimal combinations of confidence from different sources of information, and they can make complex models amenable to objective and indeed prior-free analysis for less subjectively inclined statisticians. The generous mixture of theory, illustrations, applications and exercises is suitable for statisticians at all levels of experience, as well as for data-oriented scientists. Some confidence distributions are less dispersed than their competitors. This concept leads to a theory of risk functions and comparisons for distributions of confidence. Neyman–Pearson type theorems leading to optimal confidence are developed and richly illustrated. Exact and optimal confidence distribution is the gold standard for inferred epistemic distributions. Confidence distributions and likelihood functions are intertwined, allowing prior distributions to be made part of the likelihood. Meta-analysis in likelihood terms is developed and taken beyond traditional methods, suiting it in particular to combining information across diverse data sources.

Mathematical Foundations of Infinite-Dimensional Statistical Models
  • Evarist Giné, Richard Nickl
  • Published online:
    05 December 2015
    Print publication:
    18 November 2015
  • In nonparametric and high-dimensional statistical models, the classical Gauss-Fisher-Le Cam theory of the optimality of maximum likelihood estimators and Bayesian posterior inference does not apply, and new foundations and ideas have been developed in the past several decades. This book gives a coherent account of the statistical theory in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces. The mathematical foundations include self-contained 'mini-courses' on the theory of Gaussian and empirical processes, on approximation and wavelet theory, and on the basic theory of function spaces. The theory of statistical inference in such models - hypothesis testing, estimation and confidence sets - is then presented within the minimax paradigm of decision theory. This includes the basic theory of convolution kernel and projection estimation, but also Bayesian nonparametrics and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation. In the final chapter, the theory of adaptive inference in nonparametric models is developed, including Lepski's method, wavelet thresholding, and adaptive inference for self-similar functions.

Large Sample Covariance Matrices and High-Dimensional Data Analysis
  • Jianfeng Yao, Shurong Zheng, Zhidong Bai
  • Published online:
    05 April 2015
    Print publication:
    26 March 2015
  • High-dimensional data appear in many fields, and their analysis has become increasingly important in modern statistics. However, it has long been observed that several well-known methods in multivariate analysis become inefficient, or even misleading, when the data dimension p is larger than, say, several tens. A seminal example is the well-known inefficiency of Hotelling's T2-test in such cases. This example shows that classical large sample limits may no longer hold for high-dimensional data; statisticians must seek new limiting theorems in these instances. Thus, the theory of random matrices (RMT) serves as a much-needed and welcome alternative framework. Based on the authors' own research, this book provides a firsthand introduction to new high-dimensional statistical methods derived from RMT. The book begins with a detailed introduction to useful tools from RMT, and then presents a series of high-dimensional problems with solutions provided by RMT methods.

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