Foschini gave a lower bound for the channel capacity of an N-transmit M-receive antenna system in a Raleigh fading environment with independence at both transmitters and receivers. We show that this bound is approximately normal.

We introduce a new approach to simulating rare events for Markov random walks with heavy-tailed increments. This approach involves sequential importance sampling and resampling, and uses a martingale representation of the corresponding estimate of the rare-event probability to show that it is unbiased and to bound its variance. By choosing the importance measures and resampling weights suitably, it is shown how this approach can yield asymptotically efficient Monte Carlo estimates.

Importance sampling is a widely used variance reduction technique to compute sample quantiles such as value at risk. The variance of the weighted sample quantile estimator is usually a difficult quantity to compute. In this paper we present the exact convergence rate and asymptotic distributions of the bootstrap variance estimators for quantiles of weighted empirical distributions. Under regularity conditions, we show that the bootstrap variance estimator is asymptotically normal and has relative standard deviation of order O(n−1/4).

We extend Goldie's (1991) implicit renewal theorem to enable the analysis of recursions on weighted branching trees. We illustrate the developed method by deriving the power-tail asymptotics of the distributions of the solutions R to and similar recursions, where (Q, N, C1, C2,…) is a nonnegative random vector with N ∈ {0, 1, 2, 3,…} ∪ {∞}, and are independent and identically distributed copies of R, independent of (Q, N, C1, C2,…); here ‘∨’ denotes the maximum operator.

We investigate the asymptotic distribution of the number of exceedances among d identically distributed but not necessarily independent random variables (RVs) above a sequence of increasing thresholds, conditional on the assumption that there is at least one exceedance. Our results enable the computation of the fragility index, which represents the expected number of exceedances, given that there is at least one exceedance. Computed from the first d RVs of a strictly stationary sequence, we show that, under appropriate conditions, the reciprocal of the fragility index converges to the extremal index corresponding to the stationary sequence as d increases.

Two classical stochastic processes are considered, the Ehrenfest process, introduced in 1907 in the kinetic theory of gases to describe the heat exchange between two bodies, and the Engset process, one of the early (1918) stochastic models of communication networks. In this paper we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the distributions of hitting times of these two processes when the number of particles/sources goes to infinity. Results concerning the hitting times of boundaries in particular are obtained. We rely on martingale methods; a key ingredient is an important family of simple nonnegative martingales, an analogue, for the Ehrenfest process, of the exponential martingales used in the study of random walks or of Brownian motion.

Nonnegative infinitely divisible (i.d.) random variables form an important class of random variables. However, when this type of random variable is specified via Lévy densities that have infinite integrals on (0, ∞), except for some special cases, exact sampling is unknown. We present a method that can sample a rather wide range of such i.d. random variables. A basic result is that, for any nonnegative i.d. random variable X with its Lévy density explicitly specified, if its distribution conditional on X ≤ r can be sampled exactly, where r > 0 is any fixed number, then X can be sampled exactly using rejection sampling, without knowing the explicit expression of the density of X. We show that variations of the result can be used to sample various nonnegative i.d. random variables.

We introduce a discrete-time microscopic single-particle model for kinetic transport. The kinetics are modeled by a two-state Markov chain, and the transport is modeled by deterministic advection plus a random space step. The position of the particle after n time steps is given by a random sum of space steps, where the size of the sum is given by a Markov binomial distribution (MBD). We prove that by letting the length of the time steps and the intensity of the switching between states tend to 0 linearly, we obtain a random variable S(t), which is closely connected to a well-known (deterministic) partial differential equation (PDE), reactive transport model from the civil engineering literature. Our model explains (via bimodality of the MBD) the double peaking behavior of the concentration of the free part of solutes in the PDE model. Moreover, we show for instantaneous injection of the solute that the partial densities of the free and adsorbed parts of the solute at time t do exist, and satisfy the PDEs.

Multistate monotone systems are used to describe technological or biological systems when the system itself and its components can perform at different operationally meaningful levels. This generalizes the binary monotone systems used in standard reliability theory. In this paper we consider the availabilities and unavailabilities of the system in an interval, i.e. the probabilities that the system performs above or below the different levels throughout the whole interval. In complex systems it is often impossible to calculate these availabilities and unavailabilities exactly, but it is possible to construct lower and upper bounds based on the minimal path and cut vectors to the different levels. In this paper we consider systems which allow a modular decomposition. We analyse in depth the relationship between the minimal path and cut vectors for the system, the modules, and the organizing structure. We analyse the extent to which the availability bounds are improved by taking advantage of the modular decomposition. This problem was also treated in Butler (1982) and Funnemark and Natvig (1985), but the treatment was based on an inadequate analysis of the relationship between the different minimal path and cut vectors involved, and as a result was somewhat inaccurate. We also extend to interval bounds that have previously only been given for availabilities at a fixed point of time.

We show that in preferential attachment models with power-law exponent τ ∈ (2, 3) the distance between randomly chosen vertices in the giant component is asymptotically equal to (4 + o(1))log log N / (-log(τ − 2)), where N denotes the number of nodes. This is twice the value obtained for the configuration model with the same power-law exponent. The extra factor reveals the different structure of typical shortest paths in preferential attachment graphs.

In this paper we consider the optimal dividend strategy under the diffusion model with regime switching. In contrast to the classical risk theory, the dividends can only be paid at the arrival times of a Poisson process. By solving an auxiliary optimal problem we show that the optimal strategy is the modulated barrier strategy. The value function can be obtained by iteration or by solving the system of differential equations. We also provide a numerical example to illustrate the effects of the restriction on the timing of the payment of dividends.