The inability to predict the future growth rates and earnings of growth stocks (such as biotechnology and internet stocks) leads to the high volatility of share prices and difficulty in applying the traditional valuation methods. This paper attempts to demonstrate that the high volatility of share prices can nevertheless be used in building a model that leads to a particular cross-sectional size distribution. The model focuses on both transient and steady-state behavior of the market capitalization of the stock, which in turn is modeled as a birth-death process. Numerical illustrations of the cross-sectional size distribution are also presented.

Distance measurements are useful tools in stochastic geometry. For a Boolean model Z in ℝd, the classical contact distribution functions allow the estimation of important geometric parameters of Z. In two previous papers, several types of generalized contact distributions have been investigated and applied to stationary and nonstationary Boolean models. Here, we consider random sets Z which are generated as the union sets of Poisson processes X of k-flats, k ∈ {0, …, d-1}, and study distances from a fixed point or a fixed convex body to Z. In addition, we also consider the distances from a given flat or a flag consisting of flats to the individual members of X and investigate the associated process of nearest points in the flats of X. In particular, we discuss to which extent the directional distribution of X is determined by this point process. Some of our results are presented for more general stationary processes of flats.

The purpose of the paper is to study the asymptotic geometry of a smooth-grained Boolean model (X[t])t≥0 restricted to a bounded domain as the intensity parameter t goes to ∞. Our approach is based on investigating the asymptotic properties as t → ∞ of the random sets X[t;β], β≥0, defined as the Gibbsian modifications of X[t] with the Hamiltonian given by βtμ(·), where μ is a certain normalized measure on the setting space. We show that our model exhibits a phase transition at a certain critical value of the inverse temperature β and we prove that at higher temperatures the behaviour of X[t;β] is qualitatively very similar to that of X[t] but it becomes essentially different in the low-temperature region. From these facts we derive information about the asymptotic properties of the original process X[t]. The results obtained include large- and moderate-deviation principles. We conclude the paper with an example application of our methods to analyse the asymptotic moderate-deviation properties of convex hulls of large uniform samples on a multidimensional ball. To translate the above problem to the Boolean model setting considered we use an appropriate representation of convex sets in terms of their support functions.

This note investigates the simulation algorithm proposed by van Lieshout and van Zwet (2001). It is seen that this algorithm generally produces biased samples; the nature of this bias is further explored in a technical report by the author.

The structured coalescent is a continuous-time Markov chain which describes the genealogy of a sample of homologous genes from a subdivided population. Assuming this model, some results are proved relating to the genealogy of a pair of genes and the extent of subpopulation differentiation, which are valid under certain graph-theoretic symmetry and regularity conditions on the structure of the population. We first review and extend earlier results stating conditions under which the mean time since the most recent common ancestor of a pair of genes from any single subpopulation is independent of the migration rate and equal to that of two genes from an unstructured population of the same total size. Assuming the infinite alleles model of neutral mutation with a small mutation rate, we then prove a simple relationship between the migration rate and the value of Wright's coefficient FST for a pair of neighbouring subpopulations, which does not depend on the precise structure of the population provided that this is sufficiently symmetric.

We study percolation and Ising models defined on generalizations of quad-trees used in multiresolution image analysis. These can be viewed as trees for which each mother vertex has 2d daughter vertices, and for which daughter vertices are linked together in d-dimensional Euclidean configurations. Retention probabilities and interaction strengths differ according to whether the relevant bond is between mother and daughter or between neighbours. Bounds are established which locate phase transitions and show the existence of a coexistence phase for the percolation model. Results are extended to the corresponding Ising model using the Fortuin-Kasteleyn random-cluster representation.

This paper studies path lengths in random binary search trees under the random permutation model. It is known that the total path length, when properly normalized, converges almost surely to a nondegenerate random variable Z. The limit distribution is commonly referred to as the ‘quicksort distribution’. For the class 𝒜m of finite binary trees with at most m nodes we partition the external nodes of the binary search tree according to the largest tree that each external node belongs to. Thus, the external path length is divided into parts, each part associated with a tree in 𝒜m. We show that the vector of these path lengths, after normalization, converges almost surely to a constant vector times Z.

Let T = (T1, T2,…) be a sequence of real random variables with ∑j=1∞1|Tj|>0 < ∞ almost surely. We consider the following equation for distributions μ: W ≅ ∑j=1∞TjWj, where W, W1, W2,… have distribution μ and T, W1, W2,… are independent. We show that the representation of general solutions is a mixture of certain infinitely divisible distributions. This result can be applied to investigate the existence of symmetric solutions for Tj ≥ 0: essentially under the condition that E ∑j=1∞Tj2 log+Tj2 < ∞, the existence of nontrivial symmetric solutions is exactly determined, revealing a connection with the existence of positive solutions of a related fixed-point equation. Furthermore, we derive results about a special class of canonical symmetric solutions including statements about Lebesgue density and moments.

In order to increase the variety of feasible models for random stationary tessellations (mosaics), two operations acting on tessellations are studied: superposition and iteration (the latter is also referred to as nesting). The superposition of two planar tessellations is the superposition of the edges of the cells of both tessellations. The iteration of tessellations means that one tessellation is chosen as a ‘frame’ tessellation. The single cells of this ‘frame’ are simultaneously and independently subdivided by cut-outs of tessellations of an independent and identically distributed sequence of tessellations. In the present paper, we investigate the limits for sequences of tessellations that are generated by consecutive application of superposition or iteration respectively. Sequences of (renormalised) superpositions of stationary planar tessellations converge weakly to Poisson line tessellations. For consecutive iteration the notion of stability of distributions is adapted and necessary conditions are formulated for those tessellations which may occur as limits.

We analyse the limit behaviour of a stochastic structured metapopulation model as the number of its patches goes to infinity. The sequence of probability measures associated with the random process, whose components are the proportions of patches with different number of individuals, is tight. The limit of every convergent subsequence satisfies an infinite system of ordinary differential equations. The existence and the uniqueness of the solution are shown by semigroup methods, so that the whole random process converges weakly to the solution of the system.

Sapir (1998) calculated the probabilities of the expert rule and of the simple majority rule being optimal under the assumption of exponentially distributed logarithmic expertise levels. Here we find the analogous probabilities for the family of restricted majority rules, including the above two extreme rules as special cases, and the family of balanced expert rules. We compare the two families, the rules within each family, and all rules of the two families with the extreme rules.

A new treatment of second-order self-similarity and asymptotic self-similarity for stationary discrete time series is given, based on the fixed points of a renormalisation operator with normalisation factors which are not assumed to be power laws. A complete classification of fixed points is provided, consisting of the fractional noise and one other class. A convenient variance time function approach to process characterisation is used to exhibit large explicit families of processes asymptotic to particular fixed points. A natural, general definition of discrete long-range dependence is provided and contrasted with common alternatives. The closely related discrete form of regular variation is defined, its main properties given, and its connection to discrete self-similarity explained. Folkloric results on long-range dependence are proved or disproved rigorously.

The almost sure convergence of the maximum of a strictly stationary sequence is studied. We show that, if a particular mixing condition, related to the asymptotic independence of maxima defined by O'Brien, is satisfied, then the maximum behaves asymptotically like the quantile F←(1-1/n) whenever the marginal tail distribution decreases quickly enough. A necessary condition for the almost sure convergence of the maximum is derived. Applications are also discussed.

Results about stationary Poisson hyperplane processes and the induced hyperplane mosaics are extended to the case where, instead of stationarity, it is only assumed that the intensity measure has a (possibly continuous) density with respect to some translation-invariant measure. Intensities and quermass densities, which are constant in the stationary case, are then replaced by functions. In a similar way, the associated zonoid (Matheron's Steiner convex set) is generalized.

We consider the stochastic sequence {Yt}t∈ℕ defined recursively by the linear relation Yt+1=AtYt+Bt in a random environment. The environment is described by the stochastic process {(At,Bt)}t∈ℕ and is under the simultaneous control of several agents playing a discounted stochastic game. We formulate sufficient conditions on the game which ensure the existence of Nash equilibria in Markov strategies which have the additional property that, in equilibrium, the process {Yt}t∈ℕ converges in distribution to a stationary regime.

This paper studies the law of any real powers of the integral of geometric Brownian motion over finite time intervals. As its main results, an apparently new integral representation is derived and its interrelations with the integral representations for these laws originating by Yor and by Dufresne are established. In fact, our representation is found to furnish what seems to be a natural bridge between these other two representations. Our results are obtained by enhancing the Hartman-Watson Ansatz of Yor, based on Bessel processes and the Laplace transform, by complex analytic techniques. Systematizing this idea in order to overcome the limits of Yor's theory seems to be the main methodological contribution of the paper.

We discuss long-memory properties and the partial sums process of the AR(1) process {Xt, t ∈ 𝕫} with random coefficient {at, t ∈ 𝕫} taking independent values Aj ∈ [0,1] on consecutive intervals of a stationary renewal process with a power-law interrenewal distribution. In the case when the distribution of generic Aj has either an atom at the point a=1 or a beta-type probability density in a neighborhood of a=1, we show that the covariance function of {Xt} decays hyperbolically with exponent between 0 and 1, and that a suitably normalized partial sums process of {Xt} weakly converges to a stable Lévy process.

Sums of independent random variables concentrated on discrete, not necessarily lattice, set of points are approximated by infinitely divisible distributions and signed compound Poisson measures. A version of Kolmogorov's first uniform theorem is proved. Second-order asymptotic expansions are constructed for distributions with pseudo-lattice supports.

We consider the asymptotic behaviour of a random walk when it exits from a symmetric region of the form {(x, n) :|x| ≤ rnb} as r → ∞. In order to be sure that this actually occurs, we treat only the case where the power b lies in the interval [0,½), and we further assume a condition that prevents the probability of exiting at either boundary tending to 0. Under these restrictions we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the pth moment of the overshoot to be O(rq), and for the overshoot to be tight, as r → ∞.