Predicting the distribution of endangered species from habitat data is frequently perceived to be a useful technique. Models that predict the presence or absence of a species are normally judged by the number of prediction errors. These may be of two types: false positives and false negatives. Many of the prediction errors can be traced to ecological processes such as unsaturated habitat and species interactions. Consequently, if prediction errors are not placed in an ecological context the results of the model may be misleading. The simplest, and most widely used, measure of prediction accuracy is the number of correctly classified cases. There are other measures of prediction success that may be more appropriate. Strategies for assessing the causes and costs of these errors are discussed. A range of techniques for measuring error in presence/absence models, including some that are seldom used by ecologists (e.g. ROC plots and cost matrices), are described. A new approach to estimating prediction error, which is based on the spatial characteristics of the errors, is proposed. Thirteen recommendations are made to enable the objective selection of an error assessment technique for ecological presence/absence models.

Natural flood plains are among the most biologically productive and diverse ecosystems on earth. Globally, riverine flood plains cover > 2 × 106 km2, however, they are among the most threatened ecosystems. Floodplain degradation is closely linked to the rapid decline in freshwater biodiversity; the main reasons for the latter being habitat alteration, flow and flood control, species invasion and pollution. In Europe and North America, up to 90% of flood plains are already ‘cultivated’ and therefore functionally extinct. In the developing world, the remaining natural flood plains are disappearing at an accelerating rate, primarily as a result of changing hydrology. Up to the 2025 time horizon, the future increase of human population will lead to further degradation of riparian areas, intensification of the hydrological cycle, increase in the discharge of pollutants, and further proliferation of species invasions. In the near future, the most threatened flood plains will be those in south-east Asia, Sahelian Africa and North America. There is an urgent need to preserve existing, intact flood plain rivers as strategic global resources and to begin to restore hydrologic dynamics, sediment transport and riparian vegetation to those rivers that retain some level of ecological integrity. Otherwise, dramatic extinctions of aquatic and riparian species and of ecosystem services are faced within the next few decades.

Kelp forests are phyletically diverse, structurally complex and highly productive components of coldwater rocky marine coastlines. This paper reviews the conditions in which kelp forests develop globally and where, why and at what rate they become deforested. The ecology and long archaeological history of kelp forests are examined through case studies from southern California, the Aleutian Islands and the western North Atlantic, well-studied locations that represent the widest possible range in kelp forest biodiversity. Global distribution of kelp forests is physiologically constrained by light at high latitudes and by nutrients, warm temperatures and other macrophytes at low latitudes. Within mid-latitude belts (roughly 40–60° latitude in both hemispheres) well-developed kelp forests are most threatened by herbivory, usually from sea urchins. Overfishing and extirpation of highly valued vertebrate apex predators often triggered herbivore population increases, leading to widespread kelp deforestation. Such deforestations have the most profound and lasting impacts on species-depauperate systems, such as those in Alaska and the western North Atlantic. Globally urchin-induced deforestation has been increasing over the past 2–3 decades. Continued fishing down of coastal food webs has resulted in shifting harvesting targets from apex predators to their invertebrate prey, including kelp-grazing herbivores. The recent global expansion of sea urchin harvesting has led to the widespread extirpation of this herbivore, and kelp forests have returned in some locations but, for the first time, these forests are devoid of vertebrate apex predators. In the western North Atlantic, large predatory crabs have recently filled this void and they have become the new apex predator in this system. Similar shifts from fish- to crab-dominance may have occurred in coastal zones of the United Kingdom and Japan, where large predatory finfish were extirpated long ago. Three North American case studies of kelp forests were examined to determine their long history with humans and project the status of future kelp forests to the year 2025. Fishing impacts on kelp forest systems have been both profound and much longer in duration than previously thought. Archaeological data suggest that coastal peoples exploited kelp forest organisms for thousands of years, occasionally resulting in localized losses of apex predators, outbreaks of sea urchin populations and probably small-scale deforestation. Over the past two centuries, commercial exploitation for export led to the extirpation of sea urchin predators, such as the sea otter in the North Pacific and predatory fishes like the cod in the North Atlantic. The large-scale removal of predators for export markets increased sea urchin abundances and promoted the decline of kelp forests over vast areas. Despite southern California having one of the longest known associations with coastal kelp forests, widespread deforestation is rare. It is possible that functional redundancies among predators and herbivores make this most diverse system most stable. Such biodiverse kelp forests may also resist invasion from non-native species. In the species-depauperate western North Atlantic, introduced algal competitors carpet the benthos and threaten future kelp dominance. There, other non-native herbivores and predators have become established and dominant components of this system. Climate changes have had measurable impacts on kelp forest ecosystems and efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gasses should be a global priority. However, overfishing appears to be the greatest manageable threat to kelp forest ecosystems over the 2025 time horizon. Management should focus on minimizing fishing impacts and restoring populations of functionally important species in these systems.

Mangroves, the only woody halophytes living at the confluence of land and sea, have been heavily used traditionally for food, timber, fuel and medicine, and presently occupy about 181 000 km2 of tropical and subtropical coastline. Over the past 50 years, approximately one-third of the world's mangrove forests have been lost, but most data show very variable loss rates and there is considerable margin of error in most estimates. Mangroves are a valuable ecological and economic resource, being important nursery grounds and breeding sites for birds, fish, crustaceans, shellfish, reptiles and mammals; a renewable source of wood; accumulation sites for sediment, contaminants, carbon and nutrients; and offer protection against coastal erosion. The destruction of mangroves is usually positively related to human population density. Major reasons for destruction are urban development, aquaculture, mining and overexploitation for timber, fish, crustaceans and shellfish. Over the next 25 years, unrestricted clear felling, aquaculture, and overexploitation of fisheries will be the greatest threats, with lesser problems being alteration of hydrology, pollution and global warming. Loss of biodiversity is, and will continue to be, a severe problem as even pristine mangroves are species-poor compared with other tropical ecosystems. The future is not entirely bleak. The number of rehabilitation and restoration projects is increasing worldwide with some countries showing increases in mangrove area. The intensity of coastal aquaculture appears to have levelled off in some parts of the world. Some commercial projects and economic models indicate that mangroves can be used as a sustainable resource, especially for wood. The brightest note is that the rate of population growth is projected to slow during the next 50 years, with a gradual decline thereafter to the end of the century. Mangrove forests will continue to be exploited at current rates to 2025, unless they are seen as a valuable resource to be managed on a sustainable basis. After 2025, the future of mangroves will depend on technological and ecological advances in multi-species silviculture, genetics, and forestry modelling, but the greatest hope for their future is for a reduction in human population growth.

Many natural and human-induced events create disturbances in seagrasses throughout the world, but quantifying losses of habitat is only beginning. Over the last decade, 90000 ha of seagrass loss have been documented although the actual area lost is certainly greater. Seagrasses, an assemblage of marine flowering plant species, are valuable structural and functional components of coastal ecosystems and are currently experiencing worldwide decline. This group of plants is known to support a complex trophic food web and a detritus-based food chain, as well as to provide sediment and nutrient filtration, sediment stabilization, and breeding and nursery areas for finfish and shellfish.

We define disturbance, natural or human-induced, as any event that measurably alters resources available to seagrasses so that a plant response is induced that results in degradation or loss. Applying this definition, we find a common thread in many seemingly unrelated seagrass investigations. We review reports of seagrass loss from both published and ‘grey’ literature and evaluate the types of disturbances that have caused seagrass decline and disappearance. Almost certainly more seagrass has been lost globally than has been documented or even observed, but the lack of comprehensive monitoring and seagrass. mapping makes an assessment of true loss of this resource impossible to determine.

Natural disturbances that are most commonly responsible for seagrass loss include hurricanes, earthquakes, disease, and grazing by herbivores. Human activities most affecting seagrasses are those which alter water quality or clarity: nutrient and sediment loading from runoff and sewage disposal, dredging and filling, pollution, upland development, and certain fishing practices. Seagrasses depend on an adequate degree of water clarity to sustain productivity in their submerged environment. Although natural events have been responsible for both large-scale and local losses of seagrass habitat, our evaluation suggests that human population expansion is now the most serious cause of seagrass habitat loss, and specifically that increasing anthropogenic inputs to the coastal oceans are primarily responsible for the world-wide decline in seagrasses.

Estuaries exhibit a wide array of human impacts that can compromise their ecological integrity, because of rapid population growth and uncontrolled development in many coastal regions worldwide. Long-term environmental problems plaguing estuaries require remedial actions to improve the viability and health of these valuable coastal systems. Detailed examination of the effects of pollution inputs, the loss and alteration of estuarine habitat, and the role of other anthropogenic stress indicates that water quality in estuaries, particularly urbanized systems, is often compromised by the overloading of nutrients and organic matter, the influx of pathogens, and the accumulation of chemical contaminants. In addition, the destruction of fringing wetlands and the loss and alteration of estuarine habitats usually degrade biotic communities. Estuaries are characterized by high population densities of microbes, plankton, benthic flora and fauna, and nekton; however, these organisms tend to be highly vulnerable to human activities in coastal watersheds and adjoining embayments. Trends suggest that by 2025 estuaries will be most significantly impacted by habitat loss and alteration associated with a burgeoning coastal population, which is expected to approach six billion people. Habitat destruction has far reaching ecological consequences, modifying the structure, function, and controls of estuarine ecosystems and contributing to the decline of biodiversity. Other anticipated high priority problems are excessive nutrient and sewage inputs to estuaries, principally from land-based sources. These inputs will lead to the greater incidence of eutrophication as well as hypoxia and anoxia. During the next 25 years, overfishing is expected to become a more pervasive and significant anthropogenic factor, also capable of mediating global-scale change to estuaries. Chemical contaminants, notably synthetic organic compounds, will remain a serious problem, especially in heavily industrialized areas. Freshwater diversions appear to be an emerging global problem as the expanding coastal population places greater demands on limited freshwater supplies for agricultural, domestic, and industrial needs. Altered freshwater flows could significantly affect nutrient loads, biotic community structure, and the trophodynamics of estuarine systems. Ecological impacts that will be less threatening, but still damaging, are those caused by introduced species, sea level rise, coastal subsidence, and debris/litter. Although all of these disturbances can alter habitats and contribute to shifts in the composition of estuarine biotic communities, the overall effect will be partial changes to these ecosystem components. Several strategies may mitigate future impacts.

Seagrasses cover about 0.1–0.2% of the global ocean, and develop highly productive ecosystems which fulfil a key role in the coastal ecosystem. Widespread seagrass loss results from direct human impacts, including mechanical damage (by dredging, fishing, and anchoring), eutrophication, aquaculture, siltation, effects of coastal constructions, and food web alterations; and indirect human impacts, including negative effects of climate change (erosion by rising sea level, increased storms, increased ultraviolet irradiance), as well as from natural causes, such as cyclones and floods. The present review summarizes such threats and trends and considers likely changes to the 2025 time horizon. Present losses are expected to accelerate, particularly in South-east Asia and the Caribbean, as human pressure on the coastal zone grows. Positive human effects include increased legislation to protect seagrass, increased protection of coastal ecosystems, and enhanced efforts to monitor and restore the marine ecosystem. However, these positive effects are unlikely to balance the negative impacts, which are expected to be particularly prominent in developing tropical regions, where the capacity to implement conservation policies is limited. Uncertainties as to the present loss rate, derived from the paucity of coherent monitoring programmes, and the present inability to formulate reliable predictions as to the future rate of loss, represent a major barrier to the formulation of global conservation policies. Three key actions are needed to ensure the effective conservation of seagrass ecosystems: (1) the development of a coherent worldwide monitoring network, (2) the development of quantitative models predicting the responses of seagrasses to disturbance, and (3) the education of the public on the functions of seagrass meadows and the impacts of human activity.

Running waters are perhaps the most impacted ecosystem on the planet as they have been the focus for human settlement and are heavily exploited for water supplies, irrigation, electricity generation, and waste disposal. Lotic systems also have an intimate contact with their catchments and so land-use alterations affect them directly. Here long-term trends in the factors that currently impact running waters are reviewed with the aim of predicting what the main threats to rivers will be in the year 2025. The main ultimate factors forcing change in running waters (ecosystem destruction, physical habitat and water chemistry alteration, and the direct addition or removal of species) stem from proximate influences from urbanization, industry, land-use change and water-course alterations. Any one river is likely to be subjected to several types of impact, and the management of impacts on lotic systems is complicated by numerous links between different forms of anthropogenic effect. Long-term trends for different impacts vary. Concentrations of chemical pollutants such as toxins and nutrients have increased in rivers in developed countries over the past century, with recent reductions for some pollutants (e.g. metals, organic toxicants, acidification), and continued increases in others (e.g. nutrients); there are no long-term chemical data for developing countries. Dam construction increased rapidly during the twentieth century, peaking in the 1970s, and the number of reservoirs has stabilized since this time, whereas the transfer of exotic species between lotic systems continues to increase. Hence, there have been some success stories in the attempts to reduce the impacts from anthropogenic impacts in developed nations. Improvements in the pH status of running waters should continue with lower sulphurous emissions, although emissions of nitrous oxides are set to continue under current legislation and will continue to contribute to acidification and nutrient loadings. Climate change also will impact running waters through alterations in hydrology and thermal regimes, although precise predictions are problematic; effects are likely to vary between regions and to operate alongside rather than override those from other impacts. Effects from climate change may be more extreme over longer time scales (>50 years). The overriding pressure on running water ecosystems up to 2025 will stem from the predicted increase in the human population, with concomitant increases in urban development, industry, agricultural activities and water abstraction, diversion and damming. Future degradation could be substantial and rapid (c. 10 years) and will be concentrated in those areas of the world where resources for conservation are most limited and knowledge of lotic ecosystems most incomplete; damage will centre on lowland rivers, which are also relatively poorly studied. Changes in management practices and public awareness do appear to be benefiting running water ecosystems in developed countries, and could underpin conservation strategies in developing countries if they were implemented in a relevant way.

When this century began, neither human beings nor technology had the power radically to alter planetary systems. As the century draws to a close, not only do vastly increased human populations and their activities possess that power, but we are also faced with major unintended changes that are occurring in the atmosphere, in soil, in water, among plants and animals, and in the relationships among all of them.

The levels of four sets of pollutants (heavy-metals, artificial radionuclides, petroleum components, and halogenated hydrocarbons), have been measured in U.S. coastal waters, using bivalves as sentinel organisms. The strategies of carrying out this programme are outlined and the results from the first year's work are given. Varying degrees of pollution in U.S. coastal waters have been indicated by elevated levels of pollutants in the bivalves, which comprised certain species of mussels and oysters and were collected at over one hundred localities.

Increasing recognition that the overall goals of environmental conservation and economic development are not conflicting but can be mutually reinforcing, has prompted calls for ‘environmentally sustainable’ economic development. Although there are difficulties in defining sustainable development in an analytically rigorous way, there is still a need to evolve a concept of sustainability that both distinguishes it from other post-war meanings of development and is useful for practical analysis and policymaking.

Tropical deforestation is a key contributor to species extinction and climate change, yet the extent of tropical forests and their rate of destruction and degradation through fragmentation remain poorly known. Madagascar's forests are among the most biologically rich and unique in the world but, in spite of longstanding concern about their destruction, past estimates of forest cover and deforestation have varied widely. Analysis of aerial photographs (c. 1953) and Landsat images (c. 1973, c. 1990 and c. 2000) indicates that forest cover decreased by almost 40% from the 1950s to c. 2000, with a reduction in ‘core forest’ > 1 km from a non-forest edge of almost 80%. This forest destruction and degradation threaten thousands of species with extinction. Country-wide coverage of high-resolution validated forest cover and deforestation data enables the precise monitoring of trends in habitat extent and fragmentation critical for assessment of species' conservation status.

The concept of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits humans derive from ecosystems, is increasingly applied to environmental conservation, human well-being and poverty alleviation, and to inform the development of interventions. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) implicitly recognize the unequal distribution of the costs and benefits of maintaining ES, through monetary compensation from ‘winners’ to ‘losers’. Some research into PES has examined how such schemes affect poverty, while other literature addresses trade-offs between different ES. However, much evolving ES literature adopts an aggregated perspective of humans and their well-being, which can disregard critical issues for poverty alleviation. This paper identifies four issues with examples from coastal ES in developing countries. First, different groups derive well-being benefits from different ES, creating winners and losers as ES, change. Second, dynamic mechanisms of access determine who can benefit. Third, individuals' contexts and needs determine how ES contribute to well-being. Fourth, aggregated analyses may neglect crucial poverty alleviation mechanisms such as cash-based livelihoods. To inform the development of ES interventions that contribute to poverty alleviation, disaggregated analysis is needed that focuses on who derives which benefits from ecosystems, and how such benefits contribute to the well-being of the poor. These issues present challenges in data availability and selection of how and at which scales to disaggregate. Disaggregation can be applied spatially, but should also include social groupings, such as gender, age and ethnicity, and is most important where inequality is greatest. Existing tools, such as stakeholder analysis and equity weights, can improve the relevance of ES research to poverty alleviation.

Soybeans represent a recent and powerful threat to tropical biodiversity in Brazil. Developing effective strategies to contain and minimize the environmental impact of soybean cultivation requires understanding of both the forces that drive the soybean advance and the many ways that soybeans and their associated infrastructure catalyse destructive processes. The present paper presents an up-to-date review of the advance of soybeans in Brazil, its environmental and social costs and implications for development policy. Soybeans are driven by global market forces, making them different from many of the land-use changes that have dominated the scene in Brazil so far, particularly in Amazonia. Soybeans are much more damaging than other crops because they justify massive transportation infrastructure projects that unleash a chain of events leading to destruction of natural habitats over wide areas in addition to what is directly cultivated for soybeans. The capacity of global markets to absorb additional production represents the most likely limit to the spread of soybeans, although Brazil may someday come to see the need for discouraging rather than subsidizing this crop because many of its effects are unfavourable to national interests, including severe concentration of land tenure and income, expulsion of population to Amazonian frontier, and gold-mining, as well as urban areas, and the opportunity cost of substantial drains on government resources. The multiple impacts of soybean expansion on biodiversity and other development considerations have several implications for policy: (1) protected areas need to be created in advance of soybean frontiers, (2) elimination of the many subsidies that speed soybean expansion beyond what would occur otherwise from market forces is to be encouraged, (3) studies to assess the costs of social and environmental impacts associated with soybean expansion are urgently required, and (4) the environmental-impact regulatory system requires strengthening, including mechanisms for commitments not to implant specific infrastructure projects that are judged to have excessive impacts.

This review examines the status of temperate-zone freshwater wetlands and makes projections of how changes over the 2025 time horizon might affect their biodiversity. The six geographic regions addressed are temperate areas of North America, South America, northern Europe, northern Mediterranean, temperate Russia, Mongolia, north-east China, Korea and Japan, and southern Australia and New Zealand. Information from the recent technical literature, general accounts in books, and some first-hand experience provided the basis for describing major wetland types, their status and major threats. Loss of biodiversity is a consequence both of a reduction in area and deterioration in condition. The information base for either change is highly variable geographically. Many countries lack accurate inventories, and for those with inventories, classifications differ, thus making comparisons difficult. Factors responsible for losses and degradation include diversions and damming of river flows, disconnecting floodplain wetlands from flood flows, eutrophication, contamination, grazing, harvests of plants and animals, global warming, invasions of exotics, and the practices of filling, dyking and draining. In humid regions, drainage of depressions and flats has eliminated large areas of wetlands. In arid regions, irrigated agriculture directly competes with wetlands for water. Eutrophication is widespread, which, together with effects of invasive species, reduces biotic complexity. In northern Europe and the northern Mediterranean, losses have been ongoing for hundreds of years, while losses in North America accelerated during the 1950s through to the 1970s. In contrast, areas such as China appear to be on the cusp of expanding drainage projects and building impoundments that will eliminate and degrade freshwater wetlands. Generalizations and trends gleaned from this paper should be considered only as a starting point for developing world-scale data sets. One trend is that the more industrialized countries are likely to conserve their already impacted, remaining wetlands, while nations with less industrialization are now experiencing accelerated losses, and may continue to do so for the next several decades. Another observation is that countries with both protection and restoration programmes do not necessarily enjoy a net increase in area and improvement in condition. Consequently, both reductions in the rates of wetland loss and increases in the rates of restoration are needed in tandem to achieve overall improvements in wetland area and condition.

Disturbances to key aspects of ecological systems, including biodiversity loss, climate change, pollution and natural resource degradation, have become a major concern to many policy analysts. Instead of learning from the study of biological complexity however, social scientists tend to recommend simple panaceas, particularly government or private ownership, as ‘the’ way to solve these problems. This paper reviews and assesses potential solutions for such overly simplified institutional prescriptions, referred to here as the ‘panacea problem’. In contrast to these simple prescriptions, recent research efforts are now illustrating the diversity of institutions around the world related to environmental conservation. The complexity of working institutions, however, presents a challenge to scholars who equate scientific knowledge with relatively simple models that predict optimal performance if specific institutional arrangements are in place. Dealing with this complexity has led to the development of frameworks as meta-theoretical tools. The institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework has been used over the last three decades as a foundation for a focused analysis of how institutions affect human incentives, actions and outcomes. Building on this foundation, the social-ecological systems (SES) framework has recently enabled researchers to begin the development of a common language that crosses social and ecological disciplines to analyse how interactions among a variety of factors affect outcomes. Such a framework may be able to facilitate a diagnostic approach that will help future analysts overcome the panacea problem. Using a common framework to diagnose the source, and possible amelioration, of poor outcomes for ecological and human systems enables a much finer understanding of these complex systems than has so far been obtained, and provides a basis for comparisons among many systems and ultimately more responsible policy prescriptions.

An important principle of environmental science is that changes in single components of systems are likely to have consequences elsewhere in the same systems. In the sea, food web data are one of the few foundations for predicting such indirect effects, whether of fishery exploitation or following recovery in marine protected areas (MPAs). We review the available literature on one type of indirect interaction in benthic marine ecosystems, namely trophic cascades, which involve three or more trophic levels connected by predation. Because many indirect effects have been revealed through fishery exploitation, in some cases we include humans as trophic levels. Our purpose is to establish how widespread cascades might be, and infer how likely they are to affect the properties of communities following the implementation of MPAs or intensive resource exploitation. We review 39 documented cascades (eight of which include humans as a trophic level) from 21 locations around the world; all but two of the cascades are from shallow systems underlain by hard substrata (kelp forests, rocky subtidal, coral reefs and rocky intertidal). We argue that these systems are well represented because they are accessible and also amenable to the type of work that is necessary. Nineteen examples come from the central-eastern and north-eastern Pacific, while no well-substantiated benthic cascades have been reported from the NE, CE or SW Atlantic, the Southern Oceans, E Indian Ocean or NW Pacific. The absence of examples from those zones is probably due to lack of study. Sea urchins are very prominent in the subtidal examples, and gastropods, especially limpets, in the intertidal examples; we suggest that this may reflect their predation by fewer specialist predators than is the case with fishes, but also their conspicuousness to investigators. The variation in ecological resolution amongst studies, and in intensity of study amongst systems and regions, indicates that more cascades will likely be identified in due course. Broadening the concept of cascades to include pathogenic interactions would immediately increase the number of examples. The existing evidence is that cascade effects are to be expected when hard-substratum systems are subject to artisanal resource exploitation, but that the particular problems of macroalgal overgrowth on Caribbean reefs and the expansion of coralline barrens in the Mediterranean rocky-sublittoral will not be readily reversed in MPAs, probably because factors other than predation-based cascades have contributed to them in the first place. More cascade effects are likely to be found in the soft-substratum systems that are crucial to so many large-scale fisheries, when opportunities such as those of MPAs and fishing gradients become available for study of such systems, and the search is widened to less conspicuous focal organisms such as polychaetes and crustaceans.

Rocky shores occur at the interface of the land and sea. Typically they are open ecosystems, with steep environmental gradients. Their accessibility to man has rendered them susceptible to a variety of impacts since prehistoric times. Access can be regulated, however, and they are more amenable to management than open ocean habitats. This review uses examples from throughout the world to demonstrate the extent to which rocky shores have been, and are currently, affected by pollution (examples used are endocrine disrupters, oil, eutrophication), over-collection of living resources, introduced alien species, modification of coastal processes (coastal defences, siltation) and global change (climate, sea level). These impacts are put into the context of natural fluctuations in time and variability in space of both the environment and the organisms. The relative magnitudes of some anthropogenic disturbances differ between the industrialized, developed world and the developing world. For example, in developed, industrialized countries pollution based impacts should diminish over the next 25 years due to improved regulation and a reduction in older ‘dirtier’ heavy industry. Conversely, in many developing countries pollution will increase as a consequence of growth in the human population and industrialization. Except for large-scale disasters such as oil spills, pollution tends mainly to influence embayed coastlines. Chronic effects such as eutrophication can have broader-scale impacts over whole coastlines and elevated nutrient levels have also been implicated in a trend of increasing frequency of catastrophic kills due to harmful algal. Direct removal of living resources has had major effects on coastlines at both local and regional scales and is likely to increase over the next 25 years, especially in developing countries where rapidly expanding human populations will put further pressure on resources. Impacts from recreational activities are likely to increase with greater leisure time in wealthier regions of the world, and cheaper travel will spread these impacts to poorer regions. Invasions by alien species have increased in frequency during the last 20 years leading to some dramatic effects on native assemblages. Problems associated with alien species, especially pathogens, will continue to increase over the next few decades. The proportion of the coastline modified by artificial structures (breakwaters, seawalls, groynes) will increase because of coastal development and defences against sea-level rise and the greater frequency of storms. This will increase connectivity between areas of rocky habitat. Siltation will continue to increase due to urbanization of catchments and estuaries, and changes in agricultural practice. This may have considerable impacts at local and regional scales, favouring sediment tolerant organisms such as turf algae and anemones. In the future, greater frequency of environmental extremes is likely, including large-scale events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Global change in temperature, sea-level rise and increases in the frequency of storms will affect rocky shores throughout the world, but this will occur over long time scales; over the next 25 years most of the responses by rocky shore communities will mostly be quite subtle. Thus rocky shores will be subject to increasing degradation over the next 25 years. They are, however, less vulnerable than many other aquatic habitats due to their hard substratum (rock), their relative lack of large biogenic structures and to their generally open nature. They are also remarkably resilient, and recovery can occur rapidly due to recruitment from unaffected areas. Their susceptibility to both terrestrial and marine disturbances does make them more vulnerable than sublittoral and offshore habitats. There are considerable gaps in knowledge, particularly of certain microhabitats such as crevices, boulders, sand-scoured areas and rock pools. These have been much less studied than more accessible assemblages on open, freely draining rock. More research is needed to establish the effects of increasing sediment loads, ultraviolet radiation and introduced species on rocky shore communities. Strategic and applied research programmes should integrate field experiments and carefully selected monitoring programmes to verify management regimes. Hindcasting from the palaeo-record would be valuable, to compare rates of predicted change with periods when change was rapid in the past. This information could, in principle, be used to help conserve rocky shores through networks of marine protected areas and a general reduction of environmental pollution.

Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) has been on the ascendancy for several decades and plays a leading role in conservation strategies worldwide. Arriving out of a desire to rectify the human costs associated with coercive conservation, CBNRM sought to return the stewardship of biodiversity and natural resources to local communities through participation, empowerment and decentralization. Today, however, scholars and practitioners suggest that CBNRM is experiencing a crisis of identity and purpose, with even the most positive examples experiencing only fleeting success due to major deficiencies. Six case studies from around the world offer a history of how and why the global CBNRM narrative has unfolded over time and space. While CBNRM emerged with promise and hope, it often ended in less than ideal outcomes when institutionalized and reconfigured in design and practice. Nevertheless, despite the current crisis, there is scope for refocusing on the original ideals of CBNRM: ensuring social justice, material well-being and environmental integrity.

Saltmarshes are a major, widely distributed, intertidal habitat. They are dynamic systems, responding to changing environmental conditions. For centuries, saltmarshes have been subject to modification or destruction because of human activity. In this review, the range of factors influencing the survival of saltmarshes is discussed. Of critical importance are changes in relative sea level and in tidal range. Relative sea level is affected by changes in absolute sea level, changes in land level and the capacity of saltmarshes to accumulate and retain sediment. Many saltmarshes are starved of sediment because of catchment modification and coastal engineering, or exposed to erosive forces, which may be of natural origin or reflect human interference. The geographical distribution of individual saltmarsh species reflects climate, so that global climatic change will be reflected by changes in distribution and abundance of species, although the rate of change in communities dominated by perennial plants is difficult to predict. Humans have the ability to create impacts on saltmarshes at a range of scales from individual sites to globally. Pressures on the environment created by the continued increase in the human population, particularly in developing tropical countries, and the likely consequences of the enhanced greenhouse effect on both temperature and sea level give rise to particular concerns. Given the concentration of population growth and development in the coastal zone, and the potential sensitivity of saltmarsh to change in sea level, it is timely to review the present state of saltmarshes and to assess the likelihood of changes in the near (25 years) future. By 2025, global sea level rise and warming will have impacts on saltmarshes. However, the most extensive changes are likely to be the direct result of human actions at local or regional scales. Despite increasing recognition of the ecological value of saltmarsh, major projects involving loss of saltmarshes but deemed to be in the public interest will be approved. Pressures are likely to be particularly severe in the tropics, where very little is known about saltmarshes. At the local scale the cumulative impacts of activities, which individually have minor effects, may be considerable. Managers of saltmarshes will be faced with difficult choices including questions as to whether traditional uses should be retained, whether invasive alien species or native species increasing in abundance should be controlled, whether planned retreat is an appropriate response to rising relative sea level or whether measures can be taken to reduce erosion. Decisions will need to take into account social and economic as well as ecological concerns.