Contact tracing of persons with meningococcal disease who have travelled on aeroplanes or other multi-passenger transport is not consistent between countries. We searched the literature for clusters of meningococcal disease linked by transient contact on the same plane, train, bus or boat. We found reports of two clusters in children on the same school bus and one in passengers on the same plane. Cases within each of these three clusters were due to strains that were genetically indistinguishable. In the aeroplane cluster the only link between the two cases was through a single travel episode. The onset of illness (2 and 5 days after the flight) is consistent with infection from an unidentified carrier around the time of air travel. In contrast to the established risk of transmission from a case of tuberculosis, it is likely that the risk from a case of meningococcal disease to someone who is not identified as a close contact is exceedingly low. This should be considered in making international recommendations for passenger contact tracing after a case of meningococcal disease on a plane or other multi-passenger transport.

Historical studies of influenza pandemics can provide insight into transmission and mortality patterns, and may aid in planning for a future pandemic. Here, we analyse historical vital statistics and quantify the age-specific mortality patterns associated with the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA, and UK. All three countries showed highly elevated mortality risk in young adults relative to surrounding non-pandemic years. By contrast, the risk of death was low in the very young and very old. In Japan, the overall mortality impact was not limited to winter 1918–1919, and continued during winter 1919–1920. Mortality impact varied as much as threefold across the 47 Japanese prefectures, and differences in baseline mortality, population demographics, and density explained a small fraction of these variations. Our study highlights important geographical variations in timing and mortality impact of historical pandemics, in particular between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. In a future pandemic, vaccination in one region could save lives even months after the emergence of a pandemic virus in another region.

To evaluate associations between indicators of livestock farming intensity (manure surplus and livestock density) and acute gastroenteritis hospitalization (AGH) rate, we conducted an ecological study on 306 selected agricultural municipalities of Quebec. We estimated the AGH rate for the period 2000–2004 from the Quebec hospital database. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to estimate the strength of association between the farming indicators and AGH with adjustment for confounders. The modifying effect of age and water source was also evaluated. Association between manure and AGH was observed in children, especially those aged 0–4 years for selected zoonotic infections [adjusted hospitalization rate ratio (aHRR) 1·93, 95% CI 1·21–3·09]. The risk ratio was higher for subjects using ground-water source. An increasing HRR trend with each additional level of poultry density was observed in children aged 0–4 years, especially for Salmonella infections. We conclude that livestock farming intensity may be linked to bacterial acute gastroenteritis in children.

The feasibility of using risk markers to screen broiler chicken flocks and anticipate their risk of condemnation at meat inspection was examined in 404 randomly selected flocks in 15 French slaughterhouses in 2005. Condemnation rate and information about rearing conditions, health history, catching and loading, transport and slaughtering were collected. The Poisson regression model of the condemnation rate consisted of six simple and biologically relevant predictors: production type, frequency of farmer's visits during the starting period, health disorders during rearing, on-farm mortality, mortality during transport, and slaughter-line speed. Although accurate prediction of the condemnation rate for a given flock was not feasible, flocks with low or high risk of condemnation could be distinguished. These findings could be useful at various stages of chicken production, to monitor and improve farm husbandry practices, minimize the impact of transport conditions, and optimize meat inspection procedures.

Infections by Campylobacter spp. are a major cause of gastrointestinal disease in the United Kingdom. Most cases are associated with the consumption of chicken that has become contaminated during production. We investigated the epidemiology of Campylobacter spp. in chickens in a 3-year longitudinal study of flocks reared on 30 farms in the United Kingdom. We used Generalized Linear Mixed Effect Models (GLMM) to investigate putative risk factors associated with incidence and prevalence of flock infection arising from farm and flock management and local environmental conditions during rearing. We used survival analysis to investigate infection events and associated risk factors over the course of the study using two marginal models – the independent increment approach, which assumed that individual infection events were independent; and a conditional approach, which assumed that events were conditional on those preceding. Models of flock prevalence were highly overdispersed suggesting that infection within flocks was aggregated. The key predictors of flock infection identified from the GLMM analyses were mean temperature and mean rainfall in the month of slaughter and also the presence of natural ventilation. Mean temperature in the month of slaughter was also a significant predictor of flock infection, although the analyses suggested that the risk in flocks increased in a unimodal way in relation to temperature, peaking at 12°C. The extent of pad burn was also identified as a predictor in these analyses. We conclude that predicting prevalence within flocks with linear modelling approaches is likely to be difficult, but that it may be possible to predict when flocks are at risk of Campylobacter infection. This is a key first step in managing disease and reducing the risks posed to the human food chain.

Campylobacter jejuni of different subtypes were identified in chicken, dairy cattle and diarrhoea patients in China from 2005 to 2006, using multiplex PCR and RFLP. The results indicated that, of the three types of samples, C. jejuni was most frequently detected in poultry of the three types of samples, with an average isolation rate of up to 18·61% and a flock contamination rate of 86·67%. The average incidence of C. jejuni in overall cattle and environmental samples, milk cows, heifers and diarrhoea patients was 7·77, 5·02, 8·70 and 4·84%, respectively. A higher prevalence was detected in outpatients than ward patients (P<0·01), and in patients aged <7 years than in older patients (P<0·01). The 265 isolates of C. jejuni were classified into 20 distinct types by PCR–RFLP analysis of the flaA gene, with the genotype distribution in humans overlapping that in poultry and cattle. This suggests that certain C. jejuni strains circulate between humans and domestic animals such as cattle and poultry.

Logistic regression, supported by other statistical analyses was used to explore the possible association of risk factors with the fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistance status of 108 pig finisher farms in Great Britain. The farms were classified as ‘affected’ or ‘not affected’ by FQ-resistant E. coli or Campylobacter spp. on the basis of isolation of organisms from faecal samples on media containing 1 mg/l FQ. The use of FQ was the most important factor associated with finding resistant E. coli and/or Campylobacter, which were found on 79% (FQ-resistant E. coli) and 86% (FQ-resistant Campylobacter) of farms with a history of FQ use. However, resistant bacteria were also found on 19% (FQ-resistant E. coli) and 54% (FQ-resistant Campylobacter) of farms with no history of FQ use. For FQ-resistant E. coli, biosecurity measures may be protective and there was strong seasonal variation, with more farms found affected when sampled in the summer. For FQ-resistant Campylobacter, the buying-in of grower stock may increase risk and good on-farm hygiene may be protective. The findings suggest that resistant organisms, particularly Campylobacter, may spread between pig farms.

A 12-month abattoir study was undertaken from January 2003. We collected 7492 intestinal samples from cattle, sheep and pigs at slaughter. Rectal samples were taken from cattle and sheep and caecal samples from pigs. They were examined for verocytotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) O157, Salmonella, thermophilic Campylobacter and Yersinia enterocolitica. Data were collected on the animal from which the sample came and this information was analysed to look at potential risk factors for carriage of these organisms. Logistic regression models were run where an adequate number of positive results were available. This revealed that VTEC O157 carriage in cattle was associated with the summer period and that age was a protective factor. Salmonella carriage in pigs was associated with lairage times >12 h, the North East and not feeding when there was no bedding available. In cattle, carriage was associated with the summer period, the Eastern region of GB and dairy animals. In sheep a spring seasonal effect was seen, which coincided with the lambing period. The carriage of thermophilic Campylobacter in cattle was associated with single-species abattoirs, with age a protective factor. In sheep, winter was a risk period with lairage management influential. For pigs, lairage times of <12 h were found to be associated with carriage. A seasonal trend for carriage of Y. enterocolitica in all species was demonstrated with the period December–May a risk. For cattle, age was also a risk factor; for sheep feeding in the lairage and for pigs being held overnight were risk factors.

Up to October 2004, dogs and cats imported into Japan were subjected to a quarantine regimen which consisted of vaccination and a 30- to 365-day waiting period in the country of origin and a 14-day quarantine period upon arrival in Japan. This regimen was replaced by a new one, consisting of vaccination, antibody level titration and a 180-day waiting period in the country of origin, in November 2004. To evaluate the effect of this policy change, a quantitative risk assessment was undertaken. The risk of rabies entering Japan through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA under the old – and new – regimens was quantitatively assessed and compared. Under the new regimen, rabies will enter Japan once every 4932 years (90% confidence interval 1812–13 412 years) through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA. Under the old regimen, rabies would enter Japan once every 70 years (39–205 years), 83 years (45–267 years) or 190 years (104–609 years) assuming that the animal departs the country of origin 30 days, 180 days or 365 days after vaccination, respectively. This indicates the policy change would reduce the risk by a factor of 1/25–1/70.

Lagos bat virus (LBV) constitutes genotype (gt) 2 in the Lyssavirus genus. In contrast to the gt1 lyssavirus, rabies virus (RABV), LBV was reported to have markedly reduced levels of peripheral pathogenicity. However, this opinion was based on a study of one isolate of LBV only and the reduction in pathogenicity was essentially attributed to the amino-acid substitution at position 333 of glycoprotein ectodomain. In the present study we have demonstrated that peripheral pathogenicity of representatives of LBV in a murine model is as high as that of RABV. Comparison of amino-acid substitutions among the viral glycoproteins, demonstrated significant differences within two antigenic sites between different phylogenetic lineages of LBV. Such molecular variability potentially contributes to differences in peripheral pathogenicity of lyssaviruses.

West Nile virus (WNV) was probably introduced in southern and northern Mexico from the USA in two independent events. Since then, WNV activity has been reported in several Mexican states bordering the USA and the Gulf of Mexico, but disease manifestations seen there in humans and equids are quite different to those observed in the USA. We have analysed WNV seroprevalence in asymptomatic, unvaccinated equids from two Mexican states where no data had been previously recorded. WNV IgG antibodies were detected in 31·6% (91/288) of equine sera from Chiapas and Puebla states (53·3% and 8·0%, respectively). Analysis by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) showed good specificity (99·4%) and sensitivity (84·9%) with the ELISA results. Further analyses to detect antibodies against three different flaviviruses (WNV, St Louis encephalitis virus, Ilheus virus) by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests on a subset of 138 samples showed that 53% of the 83 HI-positive samples showed specific reaction to WNV. These data suggest continuous expansion of WNV through Mexico.

This study uses social network analysis to investigate potential contact among 214 dog-owning households in a UK community through their utilization of public space during walking. We identified a high level of potential contact between dog-owning households; most households walked their dogs in only a few areas but a small number visited many. Highly connected households were more likely to have multiple dogs, walk their dogs off lead, and own Working, Pastoral or some Terrier types. Similarly, most areas were only visited by a few households but a few were visited by many. Despite identification of subgroups of households and locations, we demonstrated high connectivity between dog-owning households, with minimum path lengths of two ‘steps’ (household–area–household, 74%) or four ‘steps’ (via two areas, 26%).

The incidence of dengue infection, a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, shows clear dependence on seasonal variation. Based on the quantification method that furnishes the size of the A. aegypti population in terms of the estimated entomological parameters for different temperatures, we assessed the risk of dengue outbreaks. The persistence and severity of epidemics can be assessed by the basic reproduction number R0, which varies with temperature. The expression for R0 obtained from ‘true’ and ‘pseudo’ mass action laws for dengue infection is discussed.

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The incidence of dengue disease shows a clear dependence on seasonal variation. How does the temperature affect the incidence? We addressed this question indirectly by estimating the size of the A. aegypti population for different temperatures applying population dynamics theory. In order to achieve this objective we designed temperature-controlled experiments to assess the entomological parameters regarding the mosquito's life-cycle at different temperatures. By obtaining the mortality, transition and oviposition rates for different stages of the life-cycle of the mosquito we were able to calculate the basic offspring number Q0, which is the capacity of vector reproduction and ultimately gives the size of the vector population.

Insecticide-based vector control is the primary strategy for curtailing dengue transmission. We used a mathematical model of the seasonal population dynamics of the dengue mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, both to assess the effectiveness of insecticide interventions on reducing adult mosquito abundance and to predict evolutionary trajectories of insecticide resistance. We evaluated interventions that target larvae, adults, or both. We found that larval control and adult control using ultra-low-volume insecticide applications can reduce adult mosquito abundance with effectiveness that depends on the frequency of applications. We also found that year-long continuous larval control and adult control, using either insecticide treatment of surfaces and materials or lethal ovitraps, imposed the greatest selection for resistance. We demonstrated that combined targeting of larvae and adults at the start of the dengue season is optimal. This intervention contrasts with year-long continuous larval control policies adopted in settings in which dengue transmission occurs.