Using a matrix approach we discuss the first-passage time of a Markov process to exceed a given threshold or for the maximal increment of this process to pass a certain critical value. Conditions under which this first-passage time possesses various ageing properties are studied. Some results previously obtained by Li and Shaked (1995) are extended.

This paper is devoted to studying an extended class of time-continuous branching processes, motivated by the study of stochastic control theory and interacting particle systems. The uniqueness, extinction, recurrence and positive recurrence criteria for the processes are presented. The main new point in our proofs is the use of several different comparison methods. The resulting picture shows that the methods are effective and hence should also be meaningful in other situations.

This paper establishes a compound Poisson limit theorem for the sum of a sequence of multi-state Markov chains. Our theorem generalizes an earlier one by Koopman for the two-state Markov chain. Moreover, a similar approach is used to derive a limit theorem for the sum of the k th-order two-state Markov chain.

Let X be a birth and death process on with absorption at zero and suppose that X is suitably recurrent, irreducible and non-explosive. In a recent paper, Roberts and Jacka (1994) showed that as T → ∞ the process conditioned to non-absortion until time T converges weakly to a time-homogeneous Markov limit, X∞, which is itself a birth and death process. However the question of the possibility of explosiveness of X∞ remained open. The major result of this paper establishes that X∞ is always non-explosive.

We consider a discrete-time birth-death process on the non-negative integers with −1 as an absorbing state and study the limiting behaviour as n → ∞ of the process conditioned on non-absorption until time n. By proving that a condition recently proposed by Martinez and Vares is vacuously true, we establish that the conditioned process is always weakly convergent when all self-transition probabilities are zero. In the aperiodic case we obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for weak convergence.

An explicit formula for the probability that a Brownian motion crosses a piecewise linear boundary in a finite time interval is derived. This formula is used to obtain approximations to the crossing probabilities for general boundaries which are the uniform limits of piecewise linear functions. The rules for assessing the accuracies of the approximations are given. The calculations of the crossing probabilities are easily carried out through Monte Carlo methods. Some numerical examples are provided.

The solution is presented to all optimal stopping problems of the form supτE(G(|Β τ |) – cτ), where is standard Brownian motion and the supremum is taken over all stopping times τ for B with finite expectation, while the map G : ℝ+ → ℝ satisfies for some being given and fixed. The optimal stopping time is shown to be the hitting time by the reflecting Brownian motion of the set of all (approximate) maximum points of the map . The method of proof relies upon Wald's identity for Brownian motion and simple real analysis arguments. A simple proof of the Dubins–Jacka–Schwarz–Shepp–Shiryaev (square root of two) maximal inequality for randomly stopped Brownian motion is given as an application.

This paper compares the convergence rate properties of three storage models (dams) driven by time-homogeneous jump process input: the infinitely high dam, the finite dam, and the infinitely deep dam. We show that the convergence rate of the infinitely high dam depends on the moment properties of the input process, the finite dam always approaches its limiting distribution exponentially fast, and the infinitely deep dam approaches its limiting distribution exponentially fast under very general conditions. Our methods make use of rate results for regenerative processes and several sample path orderings.

The theory of majorization is applied to investigate the effects of heterogeneity in a class of epidemics. In particular, the heterogeneity of the components of the contact vector of a given susceptible is studied. It is shown that if the heterogeneity can be partially ordered through majorization, then the probability functions of escaping infection can be similarly ordered. The results can be applied to AIDS research on the spread of the HIV virus.

In a system modelled by a time-discrete deterministic model, predictions of the distribution of the members over the different classes do not result automatically in an integer valued vector. In this paper, for a constant size system, we discuss how to associate with the calculated vector an integer valued vector. Furthermore we examine whether the evolution of the calculated vectors on the one hand, and the evolution of the associated integer valued vectors on the other hand, have the same properties.

A characterization of the exponential distribution based on a relevation-type equation and its discrete version are extended to the case of multidimensional spaces via variants of the Choquet–Deny theorem. Comments on some recent results in the literature are made.

We define a leavable stochastic game which is a possible two-person generalization of the classical red-and-black gambling problem. We show that there are three basic possibilities for a two-person red-and-black game which, by analogy with gambling theory, we call the subfair, the fair and the superfair cases. A suitable generalization of what in gambling theory is called bold play is proved to be a uniformly ε-optimal stationary strategy for player I in the fair and the subfair cases whereas a generalization of timid play is shown to be ε-optimal for player I in the superfair possibility.

Upper and lower bounds are derived for the tail probabilities of compound distributions using simple properties of the claim size distribution. General bounds are then obtained for various classes of claim size distributions. Some examples are given.

We consider initially two parallel routes, each of two queues in tandem, with arriving customers choosing the route giving them the shortest expected time in the system, given the queue lengths at the customer's time of arrival. All interarrival and service times are exponential.

We then augment this network to obtain a Wheatstone bridge, in which customers may cross from one route to the other between queues, again choosing the route giving the shortest expected time in the system, given the queue lengths ahead of them.

We find that Braess's paradox can occur: namely in equilibrium the expected transit time in the augmented network, for some service rates, can be greater than in the initial network.

Braess's paradox is said to occur in a network if the addition of an extra link leads to worse performance. It has been shown to occur in transportation networks (such as road networks) and also in queueing networks. Here, we show that it can occur in loss networks.

A number of recent papers have exhibited classes of queueing networks, with batches of customers served and routed through the network, which have generalised product-form equilibrium distributions. In this paper we look at these from a new viewpoint. In particular we show that, under standard assumptions, for a network to possess an equilibrium distribution that factorises into a product form over the nodes of the network for all possible transition rates, it is necessary and sufficient that it be equivalent to a suitably-defined single-movement network. We consider also the form of the state space for such networks.

In this paper we analyze a single server two-queue model with Bernoulli schedules. This discipline is very flexible and contains the exhaustive and 1-limited disciplines as special cases. We formulate the queueing system as a Riemann boundary value problem with shift. The boundary value problem is solved by exploring a Fredholm integral equation around the unit circle. Some numerical examples are presented at the end of the paper.

An M/M/1 queue is subject to mass exodus at rate β and mass immigration at rate when idle. A general resolvent approach is used to derive occupation probabilities and high-order moments. This powerful technique is not only considerably easier to apply than a standard direct attack on the forward p.g.f. equation, but it also implicitly yields necessary and sufficient conditions for recurrence, positive recurrence and transience.

It is shown that the stationary excursions above level x for the stationary M/G/1 queue with the service time distribution belonging to a certain class of subexponential distributions are asymptotically of two types as x →∞: either the excursion starts with a jump from a level which is O(1) and the initial excess over x converges to ∞, or it starts from a level of the form x – O(1) and the excess has a proper limit distribution. The two types occur with probabilities ρ, resp. 1 – ρ.

Explicit formulas for the time congestion and the call blocking probability are derived in a single server loss system whose total input consists of a finite superposition of independent general stationary traffic streams with exponentially distributed service times. The results are used for studying to what extent two arrival processes with coinciding customer-stationary state distributions are similar or even identical, and whether an arrival process with coinciding customer-stationary and time-stationary state distributions is of the Poisson type.