The aim of this paper is to study the stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of the extinction time of Bellman-Harris branching processes depending on their reproduction laws. Moreover, we show their applications in an epidemiological context, obtaining an optimal criterion to establish the proportion of susceptible individuals in a given population that must be vaccinated in order to eliminate an infectious disease. First the spread of infection is modelled by a Bellman-Harris branching process. Finally, we provide a simulation-based method to determine the optimal vaccination policies.

Asset allocation with a derivative security is studied in a hidden, Markovian regime-switching, economy using filtering theory and the martingale approach. A generalized delta-hedged ratio and a generalized elasticity of an option are introduced to accommodate the presence of the information state process and the derivative security. Malliavin calculus is applied to derive a solution for a general utility function which includes an exponential utility, a power utility, and a logarithmic utility. A compact solution is obtained for a logarithmic utility. Some economic implications of the solutions are discussed.

In this paper we continue the study of the classification problem for random walks in the quarter plane, with zero drifts in the interior of the domain. The necessary and sufficient conditions for these random walks to be ergodic were found earlier in [3]. Here we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for transience by constructing suitable Lyapounov functions.

We define and analyze a coalescent process as a recursive box-filling process whose genealogy is given by an ancestral time-reversed, time-inhomogeneous Bienyamé‒Galton‒Watson process. Special interest is on the expected size of a typical box and its probability of being empty. Special cases leading to exact asymptotic computations are investigated when the coalescing mechanisms are either linear fractional or quadratic.

We consider a directed graph on the integers with a directed edge from vertex i to j present with probability n-1, whenever i < j, independently of all other edges. Moreover, to each edge (i, j) we assign weight n-1(j - i). We show that the closure of vertex 0 in such a weighted random graph converges in distribution to the Poisson-weighted infinite tree as n → ∞. In addition, we derive limit theorems for the length of the longest path in the subgraph of the Poisson-weighted infinite tree which has all vertices at weighted distance of at most ρ from the root.

Let Xt be an n-dimensional diffusion process and S(t) be a set-valued function. Suppose Xt is invisible when it is hidden by S(t), but we can see the process exactly otherwise. In this paper, we derive the optimal estimator E[f(X1) | Xs1Xs∉S(s), 0 ≤ s ≤ 1] for a bounded Borel function f. We illustrate some computations for Gauss-Markov processes.

The study of exponential functionals of Brownian motion has recently attracted much attention, partly motivated by several problems in financial mathematics. Let be a linear Brownian motion starting from 0. Following Dufresne (1989), (1990), De Schepper and Goovaerts (1992) and De Schepper et al. (1992), we are interested in the process (for δ > 0), which stands for the discounted values of a continuous perpetuity payment. We characterize the upper class (in the sense of Paul Lévy) of X, as δ tends to zero, by an integral test. The law of the iterated logarithm is obtained as a straightforward consequence. The process exp(W(u))du is studied as well. The class of upper functions of Z is provided. An application to the lim inf behaviour of the winding clock of planar Brownian motion is presented.

A Markov step process Z equipped with a possibly non-denumerable state space X can model a variety of queueing, communication and computer networks. The analysis of such networks can be facilitated if certain traffic flows consist of mutually independent Poisson processes with respective deterministic intensities λi (t). Accordingly, we define the multivariate counting process N = (N1, N2, · ·· Nc) induced by Z; a count in Ni occurs whenever Z jumps from x (χ into a (possibly empty) target set . We study N through the infinitesimal operator à of the augmented Markov process W = (Z, N), and the integral relationship connecting à with the transition operator Tt of W. It is then shown that Ni depends on a non-negative function ri defined on χ; ri (x) may be interpreted as the expected rate of increase in Ni, given that Z is in state x.

A multivariate N is Poisson (i.e., composed of mutually independent Poisson streams Ni) if and only if simultaneous jumps are impossible in a certain sense, and if the conditional expectation E[ri (Z(t) | 𝒩i] = E[ri (Z(t))] for i = 1, 2, ···, c and each t ≧ 0, where 𝒩i is the σ-algebra σ{N(s), s ≦ t}. Necessary and sufficient conditions are also specified that, for each s ≦ t, the variates [Ni(t)-Ni(s)] are mutually independent Poisson distributed; this involves a weakened version of E[ri(Z(v)) | N(v) – N(u)] = E [ri(Z(v))] for i = 1, 2, ···, c and all 0 ≦ u ≦ v.

It is shown that the above criteria are automatically met by the more stringent classical requirement that N(t) and Z(t) be independent for each t ≧ 0.

We introduce and study a novel type of first-passage percolation problem on where the associated first-passage time measures the density of interface between two types of sites. If the types, designated + and –, are independently assigned their values with probability p and (1 — p) respectively, we show that the density of interface is non-zero provided that both species are subcritical with regard to percolation, i.e. pc > p > 1 – pc. Furthermore, we show that as p ↑ pc or p ↓ (1 – pc), the interface density vanishes with scaling behavior identical to the correlation length of the site percolation problem.

Conditions under which a function of a finite, discrete-time Markov chain, X(t), is again Markov are given, when X(t) is not irreducible. These conditions are given in terms of an interrelationship between two partitions of the state space of X(t), the partition induced by the minimal essential classes of X(t) and the partition with respect to which lumping is to be considered.

Recent time series research has been directed towards the relaxation of the assumption that time series models have constant coefficients. One class of models to emerge as a result of this has been that of random coefficient autoregressive models. This paper demonstrates how the Box-Jenkins three-step approach of model specification, estimation and diagnostic checking may be applied to this class of models.

In this paper we employ a Gaussian-type heat kernel estimate to establish Krylov’s estimate and Khasminskii’s estimate for the Euler–Maruyama (EM) algorithm. For applications, by taking Zvonkin’s transformation into account, we investigate the convergence rate of the EM algorithm for a class of multidimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with low regular drifts, which need not be piecewise Lipschitz.

In this paper we consider the general birth-and-death queueing model of Natvig (1975). Define the input and output processes by the steady-state behaviour of respectively successive input and output intervals. Ignoring balking customers, two cases are considered. In the first case we treat a lost customer neither as an input nor as an output, then secondly as both. For both cases we show the input and output processes to be reverse processes. One mistake and two erroneous comments in Natvig (1975) are also corrected.

We consider an independent long-range bond percolation on Z2. Horizontal and vertical bonds of length n are independently open with probability p_n ∈ [0, 1]. Given ∑n=1∞∏i=1n(1 − pi) < ∞, we prove that there exists an infinite cluster of open bonds of length less than or equal to N for some large but finite N. The result gives a partial answer to the truncation problem.

The second-moment structure of an estimator V*(t) of the variance-time curve V(t) of a weakly stationary point process is obtained in the case where the process is Poisson. This result is used to establish the weak convergence of a class of estimators of the form Tβ(V*(tTα) – V(tTα)), 0 < α < 1, to a non-stationary Gaussian process. Similar results are shown to hold when α = 0 and in the case where V(tTα) is replaced by a suitable estimator.

We consider a system of independent branching random walks on R which start from a Poisson point process with intensity of the form eλ(du) = e-λudu, where λ ∈ R is chosen in such a way that the overall intensity of particles is preserved. Denote by χ the cluster distribution, and let φ be the log-Laplace transform of the intensity of χ. If λφ'(λ) > 0, we show that the system is persistent, meaning that the point process formed by the particles in the nth generation converges as n → ∞ to a non-trivial point process Πeλχ with intensity eλ. If λφ'(λ) < 0 then the branching population suffers local extinction, meaning that the limiting point process is empty. We characterize point processes on R which are cluster invariant with respect to the cluster distribution χ as mixtures of the point processes Πceλχ over c > 0 and λ ∈ Kst, where Kst = {λ ∈ R: φ(λ) = 0, λφ'(λ) > 0}.

Suppose that an unknown number of objects arrive sequentially according to a Poisson process with random intensity λ on some fixed time interval [0,T]. We assume a gamma prior density Gλ(r, 1/a) for λ. Furthermore, we suppose that all arriving objects can be ranked uniquely among all preceding arrivals. Exactly one object can be selected. Our aim is to find a stopping time (selection time) which maximizes the time during which the selected object will stay relatively best. Our main result is the following. It is optimal to select the ith object that is relatively best and arrives at some time si(r) onwards. The value of si(r) can be obtained for each r and i as the unique root of a deterministic equation.

We consider nonzero-sum games where multiple players control the drift of a process, and their payoffs depend on its ergodic behaviour. We establish their connection with systems of ergodic backward stochastic differential equations, and prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium under generalised Isaac's conditions. We also study the case of interacting players of different type.

Random arrangements of points in the plane, interacting only through a simple hard-core exclusion, are considered. An intensity parameter controls the average density of arrangements, in analogy with the Poisson point process. It is proved that, at high intensity, an infinite connected cluster of excluded volume appears almost surely.

Limit theorems are established for some functionals of the distances between two nodes in weighted random b-ary recursive trees. We consider the depth of the nth node and of a random node, the distance between two random nodes, the internal path length, and the Wiener index. As an application, these limit results imply, by an imbedding argument, corresponding limit theorems for further classes of random trees: plane-oriented recursive trees and random linear recursive trees.