A linear time-series model is considered to be one for which a stationary time series, which is purely non-deterministic, has the best linear predictor equal to the best predictor. A general inferential theory is constructed for such models and various estimation procedures are shown to be equivalent. The treatment is considerably more general than previous treatments. The case where the series has mean which is a linear function of very general kinds of regressor variables is also discussed and a rather general form of central limit theorem for regression is proved. The central limit results depend upon forms of the central limit theorem for martingales.

The vast majority of reliability analyses assume that components and system are in either of two states: functioning or failed. The present paper develops basic theory for the study of systems of components in which any of a finite number of states may occur, representing at one extreme perfect functioning and at the other extreme complete failure. We lay down axioms extending the standard notion of a coherent system to the new notion of a multistate coherent system. For such systems we obtain deterministic and probabilistic properties for system performance which are analogous to well-known results for coherent system reliability.

Quasi-birth-death processes are commonly used Markov chain models in queueing theory, computer performance, teletraffic modeling and other areas. We provide a new, simple algorithm for the matrix-geometric rate matrix. We demonstrate that it has quadratic convergence. We show theoretically and through numerical examples that it converges very fast and provides extremely accurate results even for almost unstable models.

We investigate the optimal allocation of effort to a collection of n projects. The projects are ‘restless' in that the state of a project evolves in time, whether or not it is allocated effort. The evolution of the state of each project follows a Markov rule, but transitions and rewards depend on whether or not the project receives effort. The objective is to maximize the expected time-average reward under a constraint that exactly m of the n projects receive effort at any one time. We show that as m and n tend to ∞ with m/n fixed, the per-project reward of the optimal policy is asymptotically the same as that achieved by a policy which operates under the relaxed constraint that an average of m projects be active. The relaxed constraint was considered by Whittle (1988) who described how to use a Lagrangian multiplier approach to assign indices to the projects. He conjectured that the policy of allocating effort to the m projects of greatest index is asymptotically optimal as m and n tend to∞. We show that the conjecture is true if the differential equation describing the fluid approximation to the index policy has a globally stable equilibrium point. This need not be the case, and we present an example for which the index policy is not asymptotically optimal. However, numerical work suggests that such counterexamples are extremely rare and that the size of the suboptimality which one might expect is minuscule.

The problem of tendency to consensus in an information-exchanging operation is connected with the ergodicity problem for backwards products of stochastic matrices. For such products, weak and strong ergodicity, defined analogously to these concepts for forward products of inhomogeneous Markov chain theory, are shown (in contrast to that theory) to be equivalent. Conditions for ergodicity are derived and their relation to the consensus problem is considered.

A perturbation formalism is presented which shows how the stationary distribution and fundamental matrix of a Markov chain containing a single irreducible set of states change as the transition probabilities vary. Expressions are given for the partial derivatives of the stationary distribution and fundamental matrix with respect to the transition probabilities. Semi-group properties of the generators of transformations from one Markov chain to another are investigated. It is shown that a perturbation formalism exists in the multiple subchain case if and only if the change in the transition probabilities does not alter the number of, or intermix the various subchains. The formalism is presented when this condition is satisfied.

The NIPALS approach is applied to the ‘soft’ type of model that has come to the fore in sociology and other social sciences in the last five or ten years, namely path models that involve latent variables which serve as proxies for blocks of directly observed variables. Such models are seen as hybrids of the ‘hard’ models of econometrics where all variables are directly observed (path models in the form of simultaneous equations systems) and the ‘soft’ models of psychology where the human mind is described in terms of latent variables and their directly observed indicators. For hybrid models that involve one or two latent variables the NIPALS approach has been developed in [38], [41] and [42]. The present paper extends the NIPALS approach to path models with three or more latent variables. Each new latent variable brings a rapid increase in the pluralism of possible model designs, and new problems arise in the parameter estimation of the models. Iterative procedures are given for the point estimation of the parameters. With a view to cases when the iterative estimation does not converge, a device of range estimation is developed, where high profile versus low profile estimates give ranges for the parameter estimates.

Exact and ordinary lumpability in finite Markov chains is considered. Both concepts naturally define an aggregation of the Markov chain yielding an aggregated chain that allows the exact determination of several stationary and transient results for the original chain. We show which quantities can be determined without an error from the aggregated process and describe methods to calculate bounds on the remaining results. Furthermore, the concept of lumpability is extended to near lumpability yielding approximative aggregation.

The problem of bounding P(∪ Ai) given P(Ai) and P(AiAj) for i ≠ j = 1, …, k goes back to Boole (1854) and Bonferroni (1936). In this paper a new family of upper bounds is derived using results in graph theory. This family contains the bound of Kounias (1968), and the smallest upper bound in the family for a given application is easily derivable via the minimal spanning tree algorithm of Kruskal (1956). The properties of the algorithm and of the multivariate normal and t distributions are shown to provide considerable simplifications when approximating tail probabilities of maxima from these distributions.

We consider basic ergodicity properties of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms under minimal assumptions, using coupling constructions. We prove convergence in distribution and a weak law of large numbers. We also give counterexamples to demonstrate that the assumptions we make are not redundant.

An extension of the INAR(1) process which is useful for modelling discrete-time dependent counting processes is considered. The model investigated here has a form similar to that of the Gaussian AR(p) process, and is called the integer-valued pth-order autoregressive structure (INAR(p)) process. Despite the similarity in form, the two processes differ in many aspects such as the behaviour of the correlation, Markovian property and regression. Among other aspects of the INAR(p) process investigated here are the limiting as well as the joint distributions of the process. Also, some detailed discussion is given for the case in which the marginal distribution of the process is Poisson.

We consider a queuing system with several identical servers, each with its own queue. Identical customers arrive according to some stochastic process and as each customer arrives it must be assigned to some server's queue. No jockeying amongst the queues is allowed. We are interested in assigning the arriving customers so as to maximize the number of customers which complete their service by a certain time. If each customer's service time is a random variable with a non-decreasing hazard rate then the strategy which does this is one which assigns each arrival to the shortest queue.

The time to absorption from the set T of transient states of a Markov chain may be sufficiently long for the probability distribution over T to settle down in some sense to a “quasi-stationary” distribution. Various analogues of the stationary distribution of an irreducible chain are suggested and compared. The reverse process of an absorbing chain is found to be relevant.

Take a sample of individuals in the fixed-size population model with exchangeable family sizes. Follow the ancestral lines for the sampled individuals backwards in time to observe the ancestral process. We describe a class of asymptotic structures for the ancestral process via a convergence criterion. One of the basic conditions of the criterion prevents simultaneous mergers of ancestral lines. Another key condition implies that the marginal distribution of the family size is attracted by an infinitely divisible distribution. If the latter is normal the coalescent allows only for pairwise mergers (Kingman's coalescent). Otherwise multiple mergers happen with positive probability.

The generalized queueing networks (G-networks) which we introduce in this paper contain customers and signals. Both customers and signals can be exogenous, or can be obtained by a Markovian movement of a customer from one queue to another after service transforming itself into a signal or remaining a customer. A signal entering a queue forces a customer to move instantaneously to another queue according to a Markovian routing rule, or to leave the network, while customers request service. This synchronised or triggered motion is useful in representing the effect of tokens in Petri nets, in modelling systems in which customers and work can be instantaneously moved from one queue to the other upon certain events, and also for certain behaviours encountered in parallel computer system modelling. We show that this new class of network has product-form stationary solution, and establish the non-linear customer flow equations which govern it. Network stability is discussed in this new context.

We study a class of simulated annealing algorithms for global minimization of a continuous function defined on a subset of We consider the case where the selection Markov kernel is absolutely continuous and has a density which is uniformly bounded away from 0. This class includes certain simulated annealing algorithms recently introduced by various authors. We show that, under mild conditions, the sequence of states generated by these algorithms converges in probability to the global minimum of the function. Unlike most previous studies where the cooling schedule is deterministic, our cooling schedule is allowed to be adaptive. We also address the issue of almost sure convergence versus convergence in probability.

Let F be a distribution function on [0,∞) with finite expectation. In terms of the hazard rate of F several conditions are given which simultaneously imply subexponentiality of F and of its integrated tail distribution F1. These conditions apply to a wide class of longtailed distributions, and they can also be used in connection with certain random walks which occur in risk theory and queueing theory.

This paper extends the theory of weak convergence of probability measures and random functions in the function space D[0,1] to the case D [0,∞), elaborating ideas of C. Stone and W. Whitt. 7)[0,∞) is a suitable space for the analysis of many processes appearing in applied probability.

Time-reversibility is defined for a process X(t) as the property that {X(t1), …, X(tn)} and {X(– t1), …, X(– tn)} have the same joint probability distribution. It is shown that, for discrete mixed autoregressive moving-average processes, this is a unique property of Gaussian processes.

Certain first-order autoregressive processes are shown not to be strong mixing. A direct proof is given. This proof gives considerably more insight into the nature of the result than do proofs by contradiction. The result and proof help to clarify the relation between the autoregressive and strong mixing conditions.