In Reinert and Röllin (2009) a new approach - called the ‘embedding method’ - was introduced, which allows us to make use of exchangeable pairs for normal and multivariate normal approximations with Stein's method in cases where the corresponding couplings do not satisfy a certain linearity condition. The key idea is to embed the problem into a higher-dimensional space in such a way that the linearity condition is then satisfied. Here we apply the embedding to U-statistics as well as to subgraph counts in random graphs.

In this paper we prove that the stationary distribution of populations in genetic algorithms focuses on the uniform population with the highest fitness value as the selective pressure goes to ∞ and the mutation probability goes to 0. The obtained sufficient condition is based on the work of Albuquerque and Mazza (2000), who, following Cerf (1998), applied the large deviation principle approach (Freidlin-Wentzell theory) to the Markov chain of genetic algorithms. The sufficient condition is more general than that of Albuquerque and Mazza, and covers a set of parameters which were not found by Cerf.

In a two-person red-and-black game, each player holds an integral amount of chips. At each stage of the game, each player can bet any integral amount in his possession, winning the chips of his opponent with a probability which is a function of the ratio of his bet to the sum of both players' bets and is called a win probability function. Both players seek to maximize the probability of winning the entire fortune of his opponent. In this paper we propose two new models. In the first model, at each stage, there is a positive probability that two players exchange their bets. In the second model, the win probability functions are stage dependent. In both models, we obtain suitable conditions on the win probability functions such that it is a Nash equilibrium for the subfair player to play boldly and for the superfair player to play timidly.

In this paper, a finite-state mean-reverting model for the short rate, based on the continuous-time Ehrenfest process, will be examined. Two explicit pricing formulae for zero-coupon bonds will be derived in the general and special symmetric cases. Its limiting relationship to the Vasicek model will be examined with some numerical results.

We look forwards and backwards in the multi-allelic neutral exchangeable Cannings model with fixed population size and nonoverlapping generations. The Markov chain X is studied which describes the allelic composition of the population forward in time. A duality relation (inversion formula) between the transition matrix of X and an appropriate backward matrix is discussed. The probabilities of the backward matrix are explicitly expressed in terms of the offspring distribution, complementing the work of Gladstien (1978). The results are applied to fundamental multi-allelic Cannings models, among them the Moran model, the Wright-Fisher model, the Kimura model, and the Karlin and McGregor model. As a side effect, number theoretical sieve formulae occur in these examples.

Inspired by methods of queueing theory, we propose a Markov model for the spread of viruses in an open population with an exogenous flow of infectives. We apply it to the diffusion of AIDS and hepatitis C diseases among drug users. From a mathematical point of view, the difference between the two viruses is shown in two parameters: the probability of curing the disease (which is 0 for AIDS but positive for hepatitis C) and the infection probability, which seems to be much higher for hepatitis. This model bears some resemblance to the M/M/∞ queueing system and is thus rather different from the models based on branching processes commonly used in the epidemiological literature. We carry out an asymptotic analysis (large initial population) and show that the Markov process is close to the solution of a nonlinear autonomous differential system. We prove both a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem to determine the speed of convergence towards the limiting system. The deterministic system itself converges, as time tends to ∞, to an equilibrium point. We then show that the sequence of stationary probabilities of the stochastic models shrinks to a Dirac measure at this point. This means that in a large population and for long-term analysis, we may replace the individual-based microscopic stochastic model with the macroscopic deterministic system without loss of precision. Moreover, we show how to compute the sensitivity of any functional of the Markov process with respect to a slight variation of any parameter of the model. This approach is applied to the spread of diseases among drug users, but could be applied to many other case studies in epidemiology.

We analyze the notion of ‘reliability prediction’ by studying in detail a key property that is tacitly assumed to make reliability prediction possible. The analysis leads in turn to a special type of point process for which the connection of future to past can be explicitly displayed. In this type of process, the semi-renewal process, all finite-dimensional distributions are completely determined by the distribution of the time to the first event in the process. The theory provides a heretofore unappreciated unification of the two most commonly used reliability prediction models for maintained systems, namely, the renewal and revival processes. We show that familiar results from renewal theory extend and generalize to semi-renewal processes.

With (Qt)t denoting the stationary workload process in a queue fed by a Lévy input process (Xt)t, this paper focuses on the asymptotics of rare event probabilities of the type P(Q0 > pB, QTB > qB) for given positive numbers p and q, and a positive deterministic function TB. We first identify conditions under which the probability of interest is dominated by the ‘most demanding event’, in the sense that it is asymptotically equivalent to P(Q > max{p, q}B) for large B, where Q denotes the steady-state workload. These conditions essentially reduce to TB being sublinear (i.e. TB/B → 0 as B → ∞). A second condition is derived under which the probability of interest essentially ‘decouples’, in that it is asymptotically equivalent to P(Q > pB)P(Q > qB) for large B. For various models considered in the literature, this ‘decoupling condition’ reduces to requiring that TB is superlinear (i.e. TB / B → ∞ as B → ∞). This is not true for certain ‘heavy-tailed’ cases, for instance, the situations in which the Lévy input process corresponds to an α-stable process, or to a compound Poisson process with regularly varying job sizes, in which the ‘decoupling condition’ reduces to TB / B2 → ∞. For these input processes, we also establish the asymptotics of the probability under consideration for TB increasing superlinearly but subquadratically. We pay special attention to the case TB = RB for some R > 0; for light-tailed input, we derive intuitively appealing asymptotics, intensively relying on sample path large deviations results. The regimes obtained can be interpreted in terms of the most likely paths to overflow.

Li and Shaked (2007) introduced the family of generalized total time on test transform (TTT) stochastic orders, which is parameterized by a real function h that can be used to capture the preferences of a decision maker. It is natural to look for properties of these orders when there is an uncertainty in determining the appropriate function h. In this paper we study these orders when h is nondecreasing. We note that all these orders are location independent, and we characterize the dispersive order, and the location-independent riskier order, by means of the generalized TTT orders with nondecreasing h. Further properties, which strengthen known properties of the dispersive order, are given. A useful nontrivial closure property of the generalized TTT orders with nondecreasing h is obtained. Applications in poverty comparisons, risk management, and reliability theory are described.

We show that shortfall risks of American options in a sequence of multinomial approximations of the multidimensional Black-Scholes (BS) market converge to the corresponding quantities for similar American options in the multidimensional BS market with path-dependent payoffs. In comparison to previous papers we consider the multiassets case for which we use the weak convergence approach.

We consider an M/G/1 queue in which an arriving customer does not enter the system whenever its virtual waiting time, i.e. the amount of work seen upon arrival, is larger than a certain random patience time. We determine the busy period distribution for various choices of the patience time distribution. The main cases under consideration are exponential patience and a discrete patience distribution.

Recurrence equations for the number of types and the frequency of each type in a random sample drawn from a finite population undergoing discrete, nonoverlapping generations and reproducing according to the Cannings exchangeable model are deduced under the assumption of a mutation scheme with infinitely many types. The case of overlapping generations in discrete time is also considered. The equations are developed for the Wright-Fisher model and the Moran model, and extended to the case of the limit coalescent with nonrecurrent mutation as the population size goes to ∞ and the mutation rate to 0. Computations of the total variation distance for the distribution of the number of types in the sample suggest that the exact Moran model provides a better approximation for the sampling formula under the exact Wright-Fisher model than the Ewens sampling formula in the limit of the Kingman coalescent with nonrecurrent mutation. On the other hand, this model seems to provide a good approximation for a Λ-coalescent with nonrecurrent mutation as long as the probability of multiple mergers and the mutation rate are small enough.

In this paper we propose a general bivariate random effect model with special emphasis on frailty models and environmental effect models, and present some stochastic comparisons. The relationship between the conditional and the unconditional hazard gradients are derived and some examples are provided. We investigate how the well-known stochastic orderings between the distributions of two frailties translate into the orderings between the corresponding survival functions. These results are used to obtain the properties of the bivariate multiplicative model and the shared frailty model.

The topic of the present paper is a generalized St Petersburg game in which the distribution of the payoff X is given by P(X = sr(k-1)/α) = pqk-1, k = 1, 2,…, where p + q = 1, s = 1 / p, r = 1 / q, and 0 < α ≤ 1. For the case in which α = 1, we extend Feller's classical weak law and Martin-Löf's theorem on convergence in distribution along the 2n-subsequence. The analog for 0 < α < 1 turns out to converge in distribution to an asymmetric stable law with index α. Finally, some limit theorems for polynomial and geometric size total gains, as well as for extremes, are given.

We apply Stein's method for probabilistic approximation by a compound geometric distribution, with applications to Markov chain hitting times and sequence patterns. Bounds on our Stein operator are found using a complex analytical approach based on generating functions and Cauchy's formula.

This short note offers a new proof of the following fact: in a discrete-time arbitrage-free market model, a contingent claim is attainable if and only if its expected value is the same under all equivalent martingale measures. The proof is based on Rogers' (1994) proof of the Dalang-Morton-Willinger (1990) theorem.

Consider a sequence of exchangeable or independent binary trials ordered on a line or on a circle. The statistics denoting the number of times an F-S string of length (at least) k1 + k2, that is, (at least) k1 failures followed by (at least) k2 successes in n such trials, are studied. The associated waiting time for the rth occurrence of an F-S string of length (at least) k1 + k2 in linearly ordered trials is also examined. Exact formulae, lower/upper bounds and approximations are derived for their distributions. Mean values and variances of the number of occurrences of F-S strings are given in exact formulae too. Particular exchangeable and independent sequences of binary random variables, used in applied research, combined with numerical examples clarify further the theoretical results.

We consider the optimal stopping problem of maximizing the probability of stopping on any of the last m successes of a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials of length n, where m and n are predetermined integers such that 1 ≤ m < n. The optimal stopping rule of this problem has a nice interpretation, that is, it stops on the first success for which the sum of the m-fold multiplicative odds of success for the future trials is less than or equal to 1. This result can be viewed as a generalization of Bruss' (2000) odds theorem. Application will be made to the secretary problem. For more generality, we extend the problem in several directions in the same manner that Ferguson (2008) used to extend the odds theorem. We apply this extended result to the full-information analogue of the secretary problem, and derive the optimal stopping rule and the probability of win explicitly. The asymptotic results, as n tends to ∞, are also obtained via the planar Poisson process approach.

In this paper we study the Wiener-Hopf factorization for a class of Lévy processes with double-sided jumps, characterized by the fact that the density of the Lévy measure is given by an infinite series of exponential functions with positive coefficients. We express the Wiener-Hopf factors as infinite products over roots of a certain transcendental equation, and provide a series representation for the distribution of the supremum/infimum process evaluated at an independent exponential time. We also introduce five eight-parameter families of Lévy processes, defined by the fact that the density of the Lévy measure is a (fractional) derivative of the theta function, and we show that these processes can have a wide range of behavior of small jumps. These families of processes are of particular interest for applications, since the characteristic exponent has a simple expression, which allows efficient numerical computation of the Wiener-Hopf factors and distributions of various functionals of the process.

We consider a Markov additive process (MAP) with phase-type jumps, starting at 0. Given a positive level u, we determine the joint distribution of the undershoot and overshoot of the first jump over the level u, the maximal level before this jump, the time of attaining this maximum, and the time between the maximum and the jump. The analysis is based on first passage times and time reversion of MAPs. A marginal of the derived distribution is the Gerber-Shiu function, which is of interest to insurance risk. Several examples serve to compare the present result with the literature.