This paper considers a model of linear capital taxation for an economy where capital and labor income are subject to idiosyncratic uninsurable risk. To keep the model tractable, we assume that investment decisions are made before uncertainty is realized, so that the realization of the capital and labor income shocks only affects current consumption. In this setting, we are able to jointly analyze capital and labor income risk and derive analytical results regarding the optimal taxation of capital. We find that the optimal capital tax is positive in the long run if there is only capital income risk. The reason for this is that the capital tax provides insurance against capital income risk. Furthermore, for high levels of risk, increasing the capital tax may actually induce capital accumulation. On the other hand, if there is only labor income risk, the optimal capital tax is zero. The sign of the optimal tax can only be negative if the two types of risk are negatively correlated and labor income risk is large enough.

Sovereign defaults are associated with income and trade reductions and terms-of-trade deterioration. This paper develops a two-country model to study the interactions between income, trade, terms of trade, and foreign-debt default risk and default events. Such default risk and events are costly because they adversely affect the demand for a borrower country’s intermediate goods exports and its income. Consequently, trade flows change due to the income loss and consumption home bias. The defaulter’s terms of trade also deteriorate endogenously, which accelerates its income and trade losses. The model produces procyclical imports, exports, terms of trade, and other empirical features of emerging countries’ business cycles and default episodes.

This article proposes a unified framework for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models with a variety of frequency-domain techniques, some established, some new. The solution methodology is applicable to a wide class of models and leads to straightforward construction of the spectral density for performing likelihood-based inference. We also generalize the well-known spectral decomposition of the Gaussian likelihood function to a composite version implied by several competing models. Taken together, these techniques yield fresh insights into the model’s theoretical and empirical implications beyond conventional time-domain approaches can offer. We illustrate the proposed framework using a prototypical new Keynesian model with fiscal details and two determinate monetary–fiscal policy regimes. The model is simple enough to deliver an analytical solution that makes the policy effects transparent under each regime, yet still able to shed light on the empirical interactions between US monetary and fiscal policies along different frequencies.

This paper takes a parametric approach to demand analysis and tests the weak separability assumptions that are often implicitly made in representative agent models of modern macroeconomics. The approach allows estimation and testing in a systems-of-equations context, using the minflex Laurent flexible functional form for the underlying utility function and relaxing the assumption of fixed consumer preferences by assuming Markov regime switching. We generate inference consistent with both theoretical and econometric regularity. We strongly reject weak separability of consumption and leisure from real money balances as well as weak separability of consumption from leisure and real money balances, meaning that the inclusion of a money in economic models would be of quantitative importance. We also investigate the substitutability/complementarity relationship among different categories of personal consumption expenditure (nondurables, durables, and services), leisure, and money. We find that the goods are net Morishima substitutes, but because of positive income effects they are gross complements. The implications for monetary policy are also briefly discussed.

The empirical importance of news shocks—anticipated future shocks—in business cycle fluctuations has been explored by using only actual data when estimating models augmented with news shocks. This paper additionally exploits forecast data to identify news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The estimated model shows new empirical evidence that technology news shocks are a major source of fluctuations in US output growth. Exploiting the forecast data not only generates more precise estimates of news shocks and other parameters in the model, but also increases the contribution of technology news shocks to the fluctuations.

In a life-cycle model with dynastic households, parents value the transfer of tangible assets to their offspring in the event of premature death. This raises the subjective reward from investing in them relative to intangible human capital and tilts investment choice away from the latter. These effects of mortality on human capital risk and relative investment can translate into divergent growth paths, delayed transition from physical to human capital accumulation, and a dampened response to mortality shock in developing countries.

This paper estimates an enriched version of the mainstream medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which features nonseparability between consumption and real money balances in utility and a systematic response of the policy rate to money growth. Estimation results show that money is a significant factor in the monetary policy rule. As a consequence, econometric analysis that omits money from Taylor rules may lead to biased estimates of the model parameters. In contrast to earlier studies that rely on small-scale models, the paper stresses the merits of using a sufficiently rich model. First, it delivers different results, such as the role of nonseparability between consumption and money in utility. Second, the rich dynamics embedded in the model allow us to explore the responses of a larger set of macroeconomic variables, making the model more informative on the effects of shocks and more useful for understanding the sources of business cycles. Third and most importantly, it reveals the possible pitfalls of relying on small-scale models when studying money’s role in business cycles.

Within the seminal asset-pricing model by Brock and Hommes (Journal of Economic Dynamics Control 22, 1235–1274, 1998), heterogeneous boundedly rational agents choose between a fixed number of expectation rules to forecast asset prices. However, agents’ heterogeneity is limited in the sense that they typically switch between a representative technical and a representative fundamental expectation rule. Here, we generalize their framework by considering that all agents follow their own time-varying technical and fundamental expectation rules. Estimating our model using the method of simulated moments reveals that it is able to explain the statistical properties of the daily and monthly behavior of the S&P500 quite well. Moreover, our analysis reveals that heterogeneity is not only a realistic model property but clearly helps to explain the intricate dynamics of financial markets.

The present article presents novel results on the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans growth model. It is shown that the shadow price of capital goes to infinity as the capital stock goes to zero even if all functions are bounded with finite derivatives and that imposing the Inada condition of infinite derivative of the per capita production function at zero stock is irrelevant. It is also shown that unless marginal utility at zero consumption is infinity, there will be a non-empty interval where the Keynes–Ramsey rule does not hold. The paper also shows that the stable saddle path in a phase diagram with the state variable and the shadow price has an unrecognized economic interpretation that enables us to illustrate the value function as the integral of the stable saddle path.

This paper presents a pure currency economy with a nondegenerate distribution of money holdings in which, as conjectured by Wallace (Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, 259–274, 2014), there are transfer schemes financed by money creation that improve ex ante welfare relative to no-intervention. Differently from what was advocated by Wallace, pecuniary-like externalities, rather than the need to share liquidity risks, are responsible for the result.

Adoption of better technologies is a crucial way for developing countries to close productivity gaps with leading economies. However, the possibility of growing through technological adoption depends decisively on the country’s absorptive capacity. We build a theoretical model of technology adoption that focuses on four factors that shape the countries’ technological absorptive capacity, namely: (i) years of education; (ii) quality of the educational system; (iii) barriers that impede the entry and exit of firms; and (iv) the institutions that enhance or impede the diffusion of new technologies. We calibrate the model for a sample of 86 economies. The USA is our benchmark leading economy. We disentangle the relative weight of each development factor in explaining per capita income differences and study patterns in relationships between the type of development barrier and the level of development. Our results show that in relative terms, years of education and education system quality along with high barriers to opening new firms are the main impediments that middle- to high-income economies face in closing the gap with the USA. Education as a whole (quality plus years of education) explains 50% of the gap between high-income countries (HICs) and the USA, while the entry costs account for nearly 25% of this gap. A remarkable result is the small effect that individual reforms have on steady-state productivity in low-income countries (LICs). Outside of institutional framework, the remaining three factors are individually responsible for less than 15% of the gap. This result is explained by poor global absorptive capacity that reduces the effect of each factor when implemented individually. In fact, there are significant nonlinearities between development level and the effects of individual reforms, which are due to the strong complementarities between the different development factors.

This note uses monotone methods to derive two sets of comparative statics results for monetary directed search models. First, it characterizes the impact of a higher inflation rate or a higher cost of using credit on market outcomes, regardless of the choice of matching function. Second, the seller-to-buyer ratio, output level, and money demand increase as the matching function becomes more efficient in a log-supermodular sense. I also consider an extension with endogenous search intensity and show that search intensity and trade volume always decrease in the nominal interest rate.