Paleontology provides insights into the history of the planet, from the origins of life billions of years ago to the biotic changes of the Recent. The scope of paleontological research is as vast as it is varied, and the field is constantly evolving. In an effort to identify “Big Questions” in paleontology, experts from around the world came together to build a list of priority questions the field can address in the years ahead. The 89 questions presented herein (grouped within 11 themes) represent contributions from nearly 200 international scientists. These questions touch on common themes including biodiversity drivers and patterns, integrating data types across spatiotemporal scales, applying paleontological data to contemporary biodiversity and climate issues, and effectively utilizing innovative methods and technology for new paleontological insights. In addition to these theoretical questions, discussions touch upon structural concerns within the field, advocating for an increased valuation of specimen-based research, protection of natural heritage sites, and the importance of collections infrastructure, along with a stronger emphasis on human diversity, equity, and inclusion. These questions offer a starting point—an initial nucleus of consensus that paleontologists can expand on—for engaging in discussions, securing funding, advocating for museums, and fostering continued growth in shared research directions.

Fossil data are subject to inherent biological, geologic, and anthropogenic filters that can distort our interpretations of ancient life and environments. The inevitable presence of incomplete fossils thus requires a holistic assessment of how to navigate the downstream effects of bias on our ability to accurately reconstruct aspects of biology in deep time. In particular, we must assess how biases affect our capacity to infer evolutionary relationships, which are essential to analyses of diversification, paleobiogeography, and biostratigraphy in Earth history. In this study, we use an established completeness metric to quantify the effects of taphonomic filters on the amount of phylogenetic information available in the fossil record of 795 extinct squamate (e.g., lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians, and mosasaurs) species spanning 242 Myr of geologic time. This study found no meaningful relationship between spatiotemporal sampling intensity and fossil record completeness. Instead, major differences in squamate fossil record completeness stem from a combination of anatomy/body size and affinities of different squamate groups to specific lithologies and depositional environments. These results reveal that naturally occurring processes create structural megabiases that filter anatomical and phylogenetic data in the squamate fossil record, while anthropogenic processes play a secondary role.

Punctuated equilibria (PE) was presented 50 years ago as an alternative to the widespread assumption that most evolution proceeds by gradual phyletic change within lineages. Unfortunately, PE has been widely misunderstood, misrepresented, and unfairly dismissed since this first publication. We argue that much of this misunderstanding centers around a misinterpretation of the meaning of “mode” in evolution, and its significance, properly understood, for how we understand macroevolutionary processes. PE proposed that most morphospecies do not show significant anagenetic trends through their stratigraphic ranges, and that most new morphospecies that are recognized arise via cladogenesis. To the degree that this is true, most exploration of disparity space must be associated with cladogenesis.

We surveyed a sample of the recent paleontological literature to assess the frequency with which new morphospecies appear in the fossil record via anagenesis versus cladogenesis using a persistence of ancestor criterion and found the overwhelmingly dominant mode of species origin to be cladogenesis. This is a valuable but underutilized approach to this problem, which could be exploited with more studies of species-level phylogenies of fossil taxa. Combined with the conclusions of other studies that stasis or nondirectional change is common, this finding of the dominance of cladogenesis affirms that PE is very much alive and of substantial significance for understanding macroevolutionary patterns.

The Mazon Creek Lagerstätte (Moscovian Stage, late Carboniferous Period; Illinois, USA) captures a diverse view of ecosystems in delta-influenced coastal settings through exceptional preservation of soft tissues in siderite concretions. The generally accepted paradigm of the Mazon Creek biota has been that of an inferred paleoenvironmental divide between what have been termed the Braidwood and Essex assemblages, wherein the former represents a freshwater ecosystem with terrestrial input and the latter a marine-influenced prodelta setting with abundant cnidarians, bivalves, worm phyla, and diverse arthropods. Here, we revisit the paleoecology of the Mazon Creek biota by analyzing data from nearly 300,000 concretions from more than 270 locations with complementary multivariate ordinations. Our results show the Braidwood assemblage as a legitimate shoreward community and provide evidence for further subdivision of the Essex assemblage into two distinct subassemblages, termed here the Will-Essex and Kankakee-Essex. The Will-Essex represents a benthos dominated by clams and trace fossils along the transition between nearshore and offshore deposits. The Kankakee-Essex is dominated by cnidarians, presenting an ecosystem approaching the geographic margin of this taphonomic window. These new insights also allow a refined taphonomic model, wherein recalcitrant tissues of Braidwood organisms were subject to rapid burial rates, while organisms of the Essex assemblage typically had more labile tissues and were subject to slower burial rates. Consequently, we hypothesize that the Braidwood fossils should record more complete preservation than the Essex, which was exposed for longer periods of aerobic decomposition. This is supported by a higher proportion of non-fossiliferous concretions in the Essex than in the Braidwood.

Punctuated equilibria argue for intervals of long-term net stasis and comparatively abrupt change in the morphology of individual species lineages resulting from the process of allopatric speciation as recorded in the stratigraphic and fossil record. The concept of coordinated stasis extends punctuated equilibria to posit that not only individual species, but groups of coexisting lineages within a basin, display concurrent morphological and ecological stability over the same extended intervals of geologic time (105 to 106 yr). These blocks of stability termed ecological–evolutionary subunits (EESUs) are separated by shorter-lived (on the order of 103 to 104 yr) episodes of change characterized by varying combinations of speciation, extinction, immigration, and emigration. The result is a pattern of evolutionary and ecological stasis and change that is coincident and highly punctuational.

Here, we assess the connections among environment, evolution, and ecology by documenting patterns of stability, geographic extent, and synchronous turnover during medium-scale bioevents in the Middle Devonian of the eastern United States, and we briefly compare these with patterns of EESUs across the Late Ordovician mass extinction (LOME) based on ongoing work. We quantify the geographic extent and stability of faunas originally documented in the Appalachian Basin and identify their likely places of origin and refugia during turnovers. Faunas are geographically widespread during times of stability and border comparably stable faunas in adjacent provinces. During geologically brief intervals, assemblages display near-synchronous shifts involving local extirpation/extinction and coordinated migration of biogeographic boundaries over very long distances. Allopatric speciation in small, locally isolated populations along the edges of basins during brief windows of dramatically altered environmental conditions is more consistent with the geological record, emphasizes the role of environment and biogeography in driving evolutionary change, and confirms the prevalence of punctuated equilibria.

The Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) was the largest early Cenozoic hyperthermal event, one of a series of carbon cycle and climate perturbations marked by massive releases of carbon into the atmosphere and spikes in global temperature. Previous studies have documented major changes in the composition of terrestrial plant and animal communities during the PETM, as well as changes in arthropod herbivory. Here, we examine possible changes in pollination mode during the PETM in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, USA, as inferred from three lines of evidence: (1) the prevalence of fossil pollen preserved as clumps, (2) the pollination mode of nearest living relatives (NLR), and (3) angiosperm pollen morphological diversity. These suggest animal pollination became more common and wind pollination less common during the PETM. The decrease in wind pollination during the PETM reflects the basin-scale extirpation of wind-pollinated lineages and their replacement by dominantly animal-pollinated lineages concomitant with rapid warming and drying. The hotter and seasonally drier climates not only facilitated the northward range shift of plant taxa, but likely their insect and/or vertebrate pollinators as well. The dramatic floral changes during the PETM in the Bighorn Basin may also have changed available resources for insect and/or vertebrate pollinators.

Prospective and early-career paleontologists deserve an accurate assessment of employment opportunities in their chosen field of study. Drawing on a wide range of sources, we have produced an admittedly incomplete analysis of the current status and recent trends of permanent academic employment in the discipline. Obtaining more complete longitudinal data on employment trends is a major difficulty; this is a challenge that needs to be addressed. The number of job seekers is far in excess of available positions. There has been a clear erosion in the number of academic paleontologists in the United States, a trend exacerbated in recent years. The decline, in constant dollars, of federal funding for paleontological research has potential strong negative impacts on future hiring. The loss of paleontology positions has also had a deleterious effect on our professional societies, which have seen a loss of regular (professional) membership, although student membership remains strong. These trends also potentially negatively impact efforts to diversify the field. Professional societies need to better coordinate their efforts to address these serious issues. Individual paleontologists also must become more effective advocates for the importance and relevance of our science.

The rapid and accurate taxonomic identification of fossils is of great significance in paleontology, biostratigraphy, and other fields. However, taxonomic identification is often labor-intensive and tedious, and the requisition of extensive prior knowledge about a taxonomic group also requires long-term training. Moreover, identification results are often inconsistent across researchers and communities. Accordingly, in this study, we used deep learning to support taxonomic identification. We used web crawlers to collect the Fossil Image Dataset (FID) via the Internet, obtaining 415,339 images belonging to 50 fossil clades. Then we trained three powerful convolutional neural networks on a high-performance workstation. The Inception-ResNet-v2 architecture achieved an average accuracy of 0.90 in the test dataset when transfer learning was applied. The clades of microfossils and vertebrate fossils exhibited the highest identification accuracies of 0.95 and 0.90, respectively. In contrast, clades of sponges, bryozoans, and trace fossils with various morphologies or with few samples in the dataset exhibited a performance below 0.80. Visual explanation methods further highlighted the discrepancies among different fossil clades and suggested similarities between the identifications made by machine classifiers and taxonomists. Collecting large paleontological datasets from various sources, such as the literature, digitization of dark data, citizen-science data, and public data from the Internet may further enhance deep learning methods and their adoption. Such developments will also possibly lead to image-based systematic taxonomy to be replaced by machine-aided classification in the future. Pioneering studies can include microfossils and some invertebrate fossils. To contribute to this development, we deployed our model on a server for public access at www.ai-fossil.com.

Multituberculate extinction is often cited as a classic case of competitive exclusion, coinciding with the first rodent arrivals in the late Paleocene. Analyzing 124 North American multituberculate last occurrence records during the Eocene from 56 to 34 million years ago, this study aimed to differentiate Eocene multituberculate and coeval rodent floral associations through geographic spatial analysis to understand niche overlap between the two groups. If competitive exclusion with rodents was a factor in multituberculate extinction, both multituberculates and rodents would be predicted to share similar forest habitat preferences and have competed for similar ecological niches regarding their forest associations. Using spatial analysis, this study found that Eocene rodents and multituberculates did not overlap in their forest associations. The findings indicate that multituberculates were unique in inhabiting a specific type of ancient forest habitat, favoring forests composed of Metasequoia, Glyptostrobus, and Alnus, and thus thrived in wetter northern temperate forest communities during the Eocene. Metasequoia and Glyptostrobus declined significantly in North America during the later Cenozoic, coinciding with multituberculate decline and extinction as the global climate shifted toward colder and drier climates around the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. In contrast, the success of rodents is attributed to their much broader forest affinity. These preferences align with the widespread distribution of rodents today, contributing to their modern success. The absence of any similar reconstructed forest habitat preferences between rodents and multituberculates suggests that changing forest structure, rather than competitive exclusion, drove multituberculate extinction.

While punctuated equilibrium is foundational to modern paleobiology, the degree to which paleontologists and evolutionary biologists understand its claims and implications is not clear. Many critiques of punctuated equilibrium are based on misinterpretations of the model, and these misconceptions are likely to be common in classrooms. To begin to understand how the paleontological and evolutionary biology communities, including students, educators, researchers, and museum staff, perceive punctuated equilibrium, we distributed a preliminary exploratory survey to assess how respondents use punctuated equilibrium in their research and teaching and how well they comprehend its core ideas. This pilot study was undertaken to identify possible areas for future research, as well as to assess initial patterns in the data that might indicate the need for a more rigorous follow-up investigation, for example, with a formal validated survey instrument. Among this exploratory sample of 122 respondents, a strong consensus emerged that punctuated equilibrium is important to both paleontology and evolutionary biology and should be included in textbooks. However, while punctuated equilibrium is taught in both introductory and upper-level courses, most instructors in the sample spend 1 week or less on the topic. Survey items designed to explore respondents’ understanding of core ideas within punctuated equilibrium revealed internally inconsistent responses, with a notable lack of consensus on many items. Response data suggest that both empirical (e.g., anagenesis is a common phenomenon) and conceptual (e.g., punctuated equilibrium states that morphological change occurs within just a few generations during speciation) misconceptions may be common. These potential misconceptions are held by the surveyed paleontologists and evolutionary biologists alike, in all career stages. Despite 50 years of discussion, our survey results suggest the lack of a shared understanding of punctuated equilibrium within this scientific community. We therefore provide some initial guidance and concrete strategies to improve teaching and learning about punctuated equilibrium and propose areas for further investigation.