This paper describes techniques to characterize the number of singletons in the setting of the generalized birthday problem, that is, the birthday problem in which the birthdays are non-uniformly distributed over the year. Approximations for the mean and variance presented which explicitly indicate the impact of the heterogeneity (expressed in terms of the Kullback–Leibler distance with respect to the homogeneous distribution). Then an iterative scheme is presented for determining the distribution of the number of singletons. The approximations are validated by experiments with demographic data.

The normalized importance sampling estimator allows the target density f to be known only up to a multiplicative constant. We indicate how it can be derived by a delta method-based approximation of a Rao–Blackwellized acceptance rejection estimator. Using additional terms in the delta method then results on a new estimator that also only requires f to be known only up to a multiplicative constant. Numerical examples indicate that the new estimator usually outperforms the normalized importance sampling estimator in terms of mean square error.

We examine the problem of optimally maintaining a stochastically degrading system using preventive and reactive replacements. The system's rate of degradation is modulated by an exogenous stochastic environment process, and the system fails when its cumulative degradation level first reaches a fixed deterministic threshold. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted cost of preventively and reactively replacing such a system over an infinite planning horizon. To this end, we present and analyze a Markov decision process model. It is shown that, for each environment state, there exists an optimal threshold-type replacement policy. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests that, when the environment process is monotone, and the state-dependent degradation rates are totally ordered, the optimal threshold is monotone. Lastly, we derive closed-form bounds on the optimal thresholds.

The speed of the random walk on a tree is the rate of escaping its starting point. It depends on the way that the branching occurs in the sense that if the average number of branching is large, the speed is more likely to be positive. The speed on some models of random trees is calculated via calculating the hitting times of the consecutive levels of the tree.

We consider a generalized memoryless property which relates to Cantor's second functional equation, study its properties and demonstrate various examples.

We study a multi-item two-stage production system subject to Markov-modulated demands and production quantity requirements. The demand distribution for each item in each period is governed by a discrete Markov chain. The products are manufactured in two stages. In the first stage, a common intermediate product is manufactured, followed by product differentiation in the second stage. Lower and upper production limits, also known as production smoothing constraints, are imposed on both stages for all items. We propose a close-to-optimal heuristic to manage this system. To do so, we develop a lower bound problem and show that a state-dependent, modified base-stock policy is optimal. We also show when and why the heuristic works well. In our numerical study, the average optimality gap was 4.34%. We also establish some monotonicity results for policy parameters with respect to the production environment. Using these results and our numerical observations, we investigate the joint effect of (i) the two-stage production process, (ii) the production flexibility, and (iii) the fluctuating demand environment on the system's performance. For example, we quantify the value of flexible production as well as the effect of smoothing constraints on the benefits of postponement. We show that a redesign of the production process to allow for delayed product differentiation is more effective and valuable when it is accompanied by an investment in production flexibility.

We consider a mixture of one exponential distribution and one gamma distribution with increasing failure rate. For the right choice of parameters, it is shown that its failure rate has an upsidedown bathtub shape failure rate. We also consider a mixture of a family of exponentials and a family of gamma distributions and obtain a similar result.

We consider binary coherent systems with independent binary components having equal failure probability q. The system DOWN probability is expressed via its signature's combinatorial analogue, the so-called D-spectrum. Using the definition of the Birnbaum importance measure (BIM), we introduce for each component a new combinatorial parameter, so-called BIM-spectrum, and develop a simple formula expressing component BIM via the component BIM-spectrum. Further extension of this approach allows obtaining a combinatorial representation for the joint reliability importance (JRI) of two components. To estimate component BIMs and JRIs, there is no need to know the analytic formula for system reliability. We demonstrate how our method works using the Monte Carlo approach. We present several examples of estimating component importance measures in a network when the DOWN state is defined as the loss of terminal connectivity.

We consider the problem of dynamic multi-skill routing in call centers. Calls from different customer classes are offered to the call center according to a Poisson process. The agents are grouped into pools according to their heterogeneous skill sets that determine the calls that they can handle. Each pool of agents serves calls with independent exponentially distributed service times. Arriving calls that cannot be served directly are placed in a buffer that is dedicated to the customer class. We obtain nearly optimal dynamic routing policies that are scalable with the problem instance and can be computed online. The algorithm is based on approximate dynamic programming techniques. In particular, we perform one-step policy improvement using a polynomial approximation to relative value functions. We compare the performance of this method with decomposition techniques. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms leading routing policies and has close to optimal performance.

We introduce a robot–safety device system characterized by cold stand-by and by an admissible risky state. The system is attended by a single repairman and the robot has overall (break-in) priority in repair with regard to the safety device. We obtain an explicit formula for the point availability of the robot via an integral equation of the renewal-type. The explicit solution requires the notion of effective repair-versus-virtual repair. In order to decide whether the risky state is admissible, we also introduce a risk criterion. The criterion is always satisfied in the case of fast repair. As an example, we consider the case of Weibull–Gnedenko repair and we display a computer-plotted graph of the point availability obtained by a direct numerical solution of a convolution-type integral equation.

A source of light is placed d inches apart from the center of a detection bar of length L ≥ d. The source spins very rapidly, while shooting beams of light according to, say, a Poisson process with rate λ. The positions of the beams, relative to the center of the bar, are recorded for those beams that actually hit the bar. Which law best describes the time-average position of the beams that hit the bar given a fixed but long time horizon t? The answer is given in this paper by means of a uniform weak convergence result in L, d as t → ∞. Our approximating law includes as particular cases the Cauchy and Gaussian distributions.

In this article we present a sequence of random variables with weighted tail distribution functions, constructed based on the relevation transform. For this sequence, we prove several recursive formulas and connections to the residual entropy through the unifying framework of the Dickson–Hipp operator. We also give some numerical examples to evaluate our results.

This paper introduces two statistics that assess whether (or not) a sequence sampled from a stationary time-homogeneous Markov chain on a finite state space is reversible. The test statistics are based on observed deviations of transition sample counts between each pair of states in the chain. First, the joint asymptotic normality of these sample counts is established. This result is then used to construct two chi-squared-based tests for reversibility. Simulations assess the power and type one error of the proposed tests.