To our knowledge, there are no universal screening tools for substance dependence that (1) were developed using a population-based sample, (2) estimate total risk briefly and inexpensively by incorporating a relatively small number of well-established risk factors, and (3) aggregate risk factors using a simple algorithm. We created a universal screening tool that incorporates these features to identify adolescents at risk for persistent substance dependence in adulthood.

Participants were members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972–1973 and followed prospectively to age 38 years, with 95% retention. We assessed a small set of childhood and adolescent risk factors: family history of substance dependence, childhood psychopathology (conduct disorder, depression), early exposure to substances, frequent substance use in adolescence, sex, and childhood socioeconomic status. We defined the outcome (persistent substance dependence in adulthood) as dependence on one or more of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, or hard drugs at ⩾3 assessment ages: 21, 26, 32, and 38 years.

A cumulative risk index, a simple sum of nine childhood and adolescent risk factors, predicted persistent substance dependence in adulthood with considerable accuracy (AUC = 0.80).

A cumulative risk score can accurately predict which adolescents in the general population will develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood.

The aim of this study was to analyse a possible synergistic effect between back pain and common mental disorders (CMDs) in relation to future disability pension (DP).

All 4 823 069 individuals aged 16–64 years, living in Sweden in December 2004, not pensioned in 2005 and without ongoing sickness absence at the turn of 2004/2005 formed the cohort of this register-based study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for DP (2006–2010) were estimated. Exposure variables were back pain (M54) (sickness absence or inpatient or specialized outpatient care in 2005) and CMD (F40-F48) [sickness absence or inpatient or specialized outpatient care or antidepressants (N06a) in 2005].

HRs for DP were 4.03 (95% CI 3.87–4.21) and 3.86 (95% CI 3.68–4.04) in women and men with back pain. HRs for DP in women and men with CMD were 4.98 (95% CI 4.88–5.08) and 6.05 (95% CI 5.90–6.21). In women and men with both conditions, HRs for DP were 15.62 (95% CI 14.40–16.94) and 19.84 (95% CI 17.94–21.94). In women, synergy index, relative excess risk due to interaction, and attributable proportion were 1.24 (95% CI 1.13–1.36), 0.18 (95% CI 0.11–0.25), and 2.08 (95% CI 1.09–3.06). The corresponding figures for men were 1.45 (95% CI 1.29–1.62), 0.29 (95% CI 0.22–0.36), and 4.21 (95% CI 2.71–5.70).

Co-morbidity of back pain and CMD is associated with a higher risk of DP than either individual condition, when added up, which has possible clinical implications to prevent further disability and exclusion from the labour market.

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with elevated risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, the direction of this association is not yet established, as most prior studies employed cross-sectional designs. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate bidirectional associations between PTSD and MetS using a longitudinal design.

A total of 1355 male and female veterans of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent PTSD diagnostic assessments and their biometric profiles pertaining to MetS were extracted from the electronic medical record at two time points (spanning ~2.5 years, n = 971 at time 2).

The prevalence of MetS among veterans with PTSD was just under 40% at both time points and was significantly greater than that for veterans without PTSD; the prevalence of MetS among those with PTSD was also elevated relative to age-matched population estimates. Cross-lagged panel models revealed that PTSD severity predicted subsequent increases in MetS severity (β = 0.08, p = 0.002), after controlling for initial MetS severity, but MetS did not predict later PTSD symptoms. Logistic regression results suggested that for every 10 PTSD symptoms endorsed at time 1, the odds of a subsequent MetS diagnosis increased by 56%.

Results highlight the substantial cardiometabolic concerns of young veterans with PTSD and raise the possibility that PTSD may predispose individuals to accelerated aging, in part, manifested clinically as MetS. This demonstrates the need to identify those with PTSD at greatest risk for MetS and to develop interventions that improve both conditions.

Depression and diabetes commonly co-occur; however, the strength of the physiological effects of diabetes as mediating factors towards depression is uncertain.

We analyzed extensive clinical, epidemiological and laboratory data from n = 2081 Mexican Americans aged 35–64 years, recruited from the community as part of the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC) divided into three groups: Diagnosed (self-reported) diabetes (DD, n = 335), Undiagnosed diabetes (UD, n = 227) and No diabetes (ND, n = 1519). UD participants denied being diagnosed with diabetes, but on testing met the 2010 American Diabetes Association and World Health Organization definitions of diabetes. Depression was measured using the Center for Epidemiological Studies – Depression (CES-D) scale. Weighted data were analyzed using dimensional and categorical outcomes using univariate and multivariate models.

The DD group had significantly higher CES-D scores than both the ND and UD (p ⩽ 0.001) groups, whereas the ND and UD groups did not significantly differ from each other. The DD subjects were more likely to meet the CES-D cut-off score for depression compared to both the ND and UD groups (p = 0.001), respectively. The UD group was also less likely to meet the cut-off score for depression than the ND group (p = 0.003). Our main findings remained significant in models that controlled for socio-demographic and clinical confounders.

Meeting clinical criteria for diabetes was not sufficient for increased depressive symptoms. Our findings suggest that the ‘knowing that one is ill’ is associated with depressive symptoms in diabetic subjects.

Studies have linked ethnic differences in depression rates with neighbourhood ethnic density although results have not been conclusive. We looked at this using a novel approach analysing whole population data covering just over one million GP patients in four London boroughs.

Using a dataset of GP records for all patients registered in Lambeth, Hackney, Tower Hamlets and Newham in 2013 we investigated new diagnoses of depression and antidepressant use for: Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, black Caribbean and black African patients. Neighbourhood effects were assessed independently of GP practice using a cross-classified multilevel model.

Black and minority ethnic groups are up to four times less likely to be newly diagnosed with depression or prescribed antidepressants compared to white British patients. We found an inverse relationship between neighbourhood ethnic density and new depression diagnosis for some groups, where an increase of 10% own-ethnic density was associated with a statistically significant (p < 0.05) reduced odds of depression for Pakistani [odds ratio (OR) 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70–0.93], Indian (OR 0.88, CI 0.81–0.95), African (OR 0.88, CI 0.78–0.99) and Bangladeshi (OR 0.94, CI 0.90–0.99) patients. Black Caribbean patients, however, showed the opposite effect (OR 1.26, CI 1.09–1.46). The results for antidepressant use were very similar although the corresponding effect for black Caribbeans was no longer statistically significant (p = 0.07).

New depression diagnosis and antidepressant use was shown to be less likely in areas of higher own-ethnic density for some, but not all, ethnic groups.

Tests requiring the pronunciation of irregular words are used to estimate premorbid cognitive ability in patients with clinical diagnoses, and prior cognitive ability in normal ageing. However, scores on these word-reading tests correlate with scores on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), a widely used screening test for possible cognitive pathology. This study aimed to test whether the word-reading tests’ correlations with MMSE scores in healthy older people are explained by childhood IQ or education.

Wechsler Test of Adult Reading (WTAR), National Adult Reading Test (NART), MMSE scores and information about education were obtained from 1024 70-year-olds, for whom childhood intelligence test scores were available.

WTAR and NART were positively correlated with the MMSE (r ≈ 0.40, p < 0.001). The shared variance of WTAR and NART with MMSE was significantly attenuated by ~70% after controlling for childhood intelligence test scores. Education explained little additional variance in the association between the reading tests and the MMSE.

MMSE, which is often used to index cognitive impairment, is associated with prior cognitive ability. MMSE score is related to scores on WTAR and NART largely due to their shared association with prior ability. Obtained MMSE scores should be interpreted in the context of prior ability (or WTAR/NART score as its proxy).

Alcohol dependence is associated with increased levels of impulsivity, but the genetic and environmental underpinnings of this overlap remain unclear. The purpose of the current study was to investigate the degree to which genetic and environmental factors contribute to the overlap between alcohol dependence and impulsivity.

Univariate and bivariate twin model fitting was conducted for alcohol dependence and impulsivity in a national sample of 16 819 twins born in Sweden from 1959 to 1985.

The heritability estimate for alcohol dependence was 44% [95% confidence interval (CI) 31–57%] for males and 62% (95% CI 52–72%) for females. For impulsivity, the heritability was 33% (95% CI 30–36%) in males and females. The bivariate twin analysis indicated a statistically significant genetic correlation between alcohol dependence and impulsivity of 0.40 (95% CI 0.23–0.58) in males and 0.20 (95% CI 0.07–0.33) in females. The phenotypic correlation between alcohol dependence and impulsivity was 0.20 and 0.17 for males and females, respectively, and the bivariate heritability was 80% (95% CI 47–117%) for males and 53% (95% CI 19–86%) for females. The remaining variance in all models was accounted for by non-shared environmental factors.

The association between alcohol dependence and impulsivity can be partially accounted for by shared genetic factors. The genetic correlation was greater in men compared with women, which may indicate different pathways to the development of alcohol dependence between sexes. The observed genetic overlap has clinical implications regarding treatment and prevention, and partially explains the substantial co-morbidity between alcohol dependence and psychiatric disorders characterized by impulsive behaviour.

Establishing an evidence-based diagnostic system informed by the biological (dys)function of the nervous system is a major priority in psychiatry. This objective, however, is often challenged by difficulties in identifying homogeneous clinical populations. Melancholia, a biological and endogenous subtype for major depressive disorder, presents a canonical test case in the search of biological nosology.

We employed a unique combination of naturalistic functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigms – resting state and free viewing of emotionally salient films – to search for neurobiological signatures of depression subtypes. fMRI data were acquired from 57 participants; 17 patients with melancholia, 17 patients with (non-melancholic) major depression and 23 matched healthy controls.

Patients with melancholia showed a prominent loss of functional connectivity in hub regions [including ventral medial prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and superior temporal gyrus] during natural viewing, and in the posterior cingulate cortex while at rest. Of note, the default mode network showed diminished reactivity to external stimuli in melancholia, which correlated with the severity of anhedonia. Intriguingly, the subgenual ACC, a potential target for treating depression with deep brain stimulation (DBS), showed divergent changes between the two depression subtypes, with increased connectivity in the non-melancholic and decreased connectivity in the melancholic subsets.

These findings reveal neurobiological changes specific to depression subtypes during ecologically valid behavioural conditions, underscoring the critical need to respect differing neurobiological processes underpinning depressive subtypes.

Offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (BD) (BO) are at higher risk of BD than offspring of parents with non-BD psychopathology (NBO), although both groups are at higher risk than offspring of psychiatrically healthy parents (HC) for other affective and psychiatric disorders. Abnormal functioning in reward circuitry has been demonstrated previously in individuals with BD. We aimed to determine whether activation and functional connectivity in this circuitry during risky decision-making differentiated BO, NBO and HC.

BO (n = 29; mean age = 13.8 years; 14 female), NBO (n = 28; mean age = 13.9 years; 12 female) and HC (n = 23; mean age = 13.7 years; 11 female) were scanned while performing a number-guessing reward task. Of the participants, 11 BO and 12 NBO had current non-BD psychopathology; five BO and four NBO were taking psychotropic medications.

A 3 (group) × 2 (conditions: win-control/loss-control) analysis of variance revealed a main effect of group on right frontal pole activation: BO showed significantly greater activation than HC. There was a significant main effect of group on functional connectivity between the bilateral ventral striatum and the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (Z > 3.09, cluster-p < 0.05): BO showed significantly greater negative functional connectivity than other participants. These between-group differences remained after removing youth with psychiatric disorders and psychotropic medications from analyses.

This is the first study to demonstrate that reward circuitry activation and functional connectivity distinguish BO from NBO and HC. The fact that the pattern of findings remained when comparing healthy BO v. healthy NBO v. HC suggests that these neuroimaging measures may represent trait-level neurobiological markers conferring either risk for, or protection against, BD in youth.

There is now a well-established link between childhood adversity (CA) and schizophrenia. Similar structural abnormalities to those found in schizophrenia including alterations in grey-matter volume have also been shown in those who experience CA.

We examined whether global estimates of cortical thickness or surface area were altered in those familial high-risk subjects who had been referred to a social worker or the Children's Panel compared to those who had not.

We found that the cortical surface area of those who were referred to the Children's Panel was significantly smaller than those who had not been referred, but cortical thickness was not significantly altered. There was also an effect of social work referral on cortical surface area but not on thickness.

Cortical surface area increases post-natally more than cortical thickness. Our findings suggest that CA can influence structural changes in the brain and it is likely to have a greater impact on cortical surface area than on cortical thickness.

Little is known about the predictive validity of disruptive mood dysregulation disorder (DMDD). This longitudinal, community-based study examined associations of DMDD at the age of 6 years with psychiatric disorders, functional impairment, peer functioning and service use at the age of 9 years.

A total of 473 children were assessed at the ages of 6 and 9 years. Child psychopathology and functional impairment were assessed at the age of 6 years with the Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment with parents and at the age of 9 years with the Kiddie-Schedule of Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia (K-SADS) with parents and children. At the age of 9 years, mothers, fathers and youth completed the Child Depression Inventory (CDI) and the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Disorders, and teachers and K-SADS interviewers completed measures of peer functioning. Significant demographic covariates were included in all models.

DMDD at the age of 6 years predicted a current diagnosis of DMDD at the age of 9 years. DMDD at the age of 6 years also predicted current and lifetime depressive disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) at the age of 9 years, after controlling for all age 6 years psychiatric disorders. In addition, DMDD predicted depressive, ADHD and disruptive behavior disorder symptoms on the K-SADS, and maternal and paternal reports of depressive symptoms on the CDI, after controlling for the corresponding symptom scale at the age of 6 years. Last, DMDD at the age of 6 years predicted greater functional impairment, peer problems and educational support service use at the age of 9 years, after controlling for all psychiatric disorders at the age of 6 years.

Children with DMDD are at high risk for impaired functioning across childhood, and this risk is not accounted for by co-morbid conditions.

Psychiatric disorders commonly emerge during the first year following traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it is not clear whether these disorders soon remit or persist for long periods post-injury. This study aimed to examine, prospectively: (1) the frequency, (2) patterns of co-morbidity, (3) trajectory, and (4) risk factors for psychiatric disorders during the first 5 years following TBI.

Participants were 161 individuals (78.3% male) with moderate (31.2%) or severe (68.8%) TBI. Psychiatric disorders were diagnosed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, administered soon after injury and 3, 6 and 12 months, and 2, 3, 4 and 5 years post-injury. Disorder frequencies and generalized estimating equations were used to identify temporal relationships and risk factors.

In the first 5 years post-injury, 75.2% received a psychiatric diagnosis, commonly emerging within the first year (77.7%). Anxiety, mood and substance-use disorders were the most common diagnostic classes, often presenting co-morbidly. Many (56.5%) experienced a novel diagnostic class not present prior to injury. Disorder frequency ranged between 61.8 and 35.6% over time, decreasing by 27% [odds ratio (OR) 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65–0.83] with each year post-injury. Anxiety disorders declined significantly over time (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.63–0.84), whilst mood and substance-use disorder rates remained stable. The strongest predictors of post-injury disorder were pre-injury disorder (OR 2.44, 95% CI 1.41–4.25) and accident-related limb injury (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.03–3.07).

Findings suggest the first year post-injury is a critical period for the emergence of psychiatric disorders. Disorder frequency declines thereafter, with anxiety disorders showing greater resolution than mood and substance-use disorders.

Patients with schizophrenia have intact ability to experience emotion, but empirical evidence suggests that they fail to translate emotional salience into effortful behaviour. Previous research in patients with chronic schizophrenia suggests that working memory is important in integrating emotion and behaviour. This study aimed to examine avolition and anhedonia in patients with first-episode schizophrenia and clarify the role of working memory in emotion–behaviour coupling.

We recruited 72 participants with first-episode schizophrenia and 61 healthy controls, and used a validated emotion-inducing behavioural paradigm to measure participants' affective experiences and how experienced emotion coupled with behaviour. Participants were given the opportunity to expend effort to increase or decrease their exposure to emotion-inducing photographs. Participants with schizophrenia having poor working memory were compared with those with intact working memory in their liking and emotion–behaviour coupling.

Patients with first-episode schizophrenia experienced intact ‘in-the-moment’ emotion, but their emotion was less predictive of the effort expended, compared with controls. The emotion–behaviour coupling was significantly weaker in patients with schizophrenia with poor working memory than in those with intact working memory. However, compared with controls, patients with intact working also showed substantial emotion–behaviour decoupling.

Our findings provide strong evidence for emotion–behaviour decoupling in first-episode schizophrenia. Although working memory deficits contribute to defective translation of liking into effortful behaviour, schizophrenia alone affects emotion–behaviour coupling.

Results of adulthood mental health of those born late-preterm (34 + 0–36 + 6 weeks + days of gestation) are mixed and based on national registers. We examined if late-preterm birth was associated with a higher risk for common mental disorders in young adulthood when using a diagnostic interview, and if this risk decreased as gestational age increased.

A total of 800 young adults (mean = 25.3, s.d. = 0.62 years), born 1985–1986, participated in a follow-up of the Arvo Ylppö Longitudinal Study. Common mental disorders (mood, anxiety and substance use disorders) during the past 12 months were defined using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (Munich version). Gestational age was extracted from hospital birth records and categorized into early-preterm (<34 + 0, n = 37), late-preterm (34 + 0–36 + 6, n = 106), term (37 + 0–41 + 6, n = 617) and post-term (⩾42 + 0, n = 40).

Those born late-preterm and at term were at a similar risk for any common mental disorder [odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67–1.84], for mood (OR 1.11, 95% CI 0.54–2.25), anxiety (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.40–2.50) and substance use (OR 1.31, 95% CI 0.74–2.32) disorders, and co-morbidity of these disorders (p = 0.38). While the mental disorder risk decreased significantly as gestational age increased, the trend was driven by a higher risk in those born early-preterm.

Using a cohort born during the advanced neonatal and early childhood care, we found that not all individuals born preterm are at risk for common mental disorders in young adulthood – those born late-preterm are not, while those born early-preterm are at a higher risk. Available resources for prevention and intervention should be targeted towards the preterm group born the earliest.