This paper studies the role of liquidity in triggering the emergence of money in a Kiyotaki-Wright economy. A novel method computes the dynamic Nash equilibria of the economy by setting up an iteration of the agents' profile of (pure) strategies and of the distribution of commodities across agents. The analysis shows that the evolving state of liquidity can spark the acceptance of a high-cost-storage commodity as money or cause the disappearance of a commodity money. It also reveals the existence of multiple dynamic equilibria with pure strategies. Several simulations clarify how history and the coordination of beliefs matter for the selection of a particular equilibrium.

The Great Moderation is characterized as a period of stable macroeconomic conditions, especially with regard to inflation. Under the sticky information theory, this environment may provide a few incentives for agents to update information on inflation, thus, producing a new slope of the sticky information Phillips curve. We estimate the degree of information rigidity implied by the sticky information Phillips curve. Using threshold models, we identify two regimes of high and low inflation, finding that each identified regime is associated with a specific degree of information stickiness. This evidence is consistent with agents that update information faster when inflation is higher.

This paper focuses on the possibility that financial markets require risk premia on holding sovereign debt of countries that appear vulnerable from a fiscal sustainability perspective. Both the level of debt as well as the rate of change of debt are assumed to impact on the risk premium. We analyze the impact of such an endogenous risk premium in a simple debt game between a monetary and a fiscal player, as introduced by [Tabellini (1986) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 10, 427–442]. The risk premium term adds a nonlinearity to the linear model in case risk premia are absent. We analyze outcomes in case of noncooperative open-loop Nash strategies and in case of cooperative strategies and consider the workings of the risk premium as a market-based disciplining device (in case of high debt) and adjustment rewarding device (in case of a declining debt trajectory).

This paper examines China's optimal fiscal policy in a general equilibrium model, in which the government finances its budget through both a special instrument, an implicit tax on the residential land, and a typical conventional instrument, the value-added tax (VAT). By solving a Ramsey problem, we find that (i) the optimal policy suggests a much lower land tax rate than the existing rate in China, and (ii) a substantial part of debt stabilization should come through an adjustment in the VAT rate, instead of relying on land financing. Switching from the existing policy to the Ramsey policy generates significant welfare gains.

Empirical studies on the trade-environment nexus that use panel data face two simultaneous challenges. One is associated with the potential presence of unobserved cross-country heterogeneity, while the other is due to the use of aggregate data. In this paper, we apply both the dynamic fixed effects and iterative empirical Bayes estimators to show first that when country heterogeneity is accurately accounted for in the estimation, it is possible to obtain significant impacts of trade variables on the environment, even though we use aggregate data. Second, using both the empirical Bayes parameter estimates and indicators of stringency of environmental regulations, we show that at low levels of stringency, the probability of having pollution-intensive foreign direct investments (FDIs) increases with a decrease in stringency. However, at high levels of regulatory stringency, more stringent regulations may lead to more pollution-intensive FDIs. This implies that pollution havens may exist only if environmental regulations are very lax or nonexistent.

The application of exchange rate target zones modeling to interest rates allows interpreting the puzzles that emerged with the public debt euro area crisis, namely the nonlinear behavior of the interest rates and the fact that some stand-alone countries, not belonging to the euro area, have not been subject to speculative attacks in spite of equally large public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios. As a matter of fact, this model shows that in the case of a noncredible upper threshold for the interest rate (that may be due to both the lack of room for increasing further the required government primary surplus and/or the absence of a monetary authority acting as a lender of last resort), the resulting public debt unsustainability determines an interest rate nonlinearity and makes the crisis possible for public debt levels that would be stable in the presence of a credible interest rate target.

This paper explores the impact of gender differences in the desire for sex and the distribution of power in the household on the onset of the demographic transition and the take-off to growth. Depending on the price and efficacy of modern contraceptives, the gender wage gap, and female bargaining power, the economy assumes one of two possible equilibria. At the traditional equilibrium, contraceptives are not used, fertility is high and education and growth are low. At the modern equilibrium, contraceptives are used, fertility is low and further declining with increasing income, and education and growth are high. The theory motivates a “wanted fertility reversal”: At the traditional equilibrium, men prefer more children than women, whereas at the modern equilibrium, men prefer fewer children than women. Female empowerment causes households to provide more education for their children and leads to an earlier uptake of modern contraceptives and an earlier onset of the demographic transition and the take-off to modern growth.

This paper develops an analytically tractable, two-country, two-traded-good dynamic general-equilibrium model of money to examine the long-run and short-run effects of a temporary change in the domestic inflation target on the trade pattern, the terms of trade, the foreign exchange rate, and the capital accumulation of each country and of the world economy. We find that such a temporary monetary innovation can generate permanent effects on the world distribution of capital and the pattern of trade, resulting in nonneutrality in an otherwise money-neutral cash-in-advance setting. This change also leads to very rich transitional dynamics that we fully characterize analytically. In particular, endogenous responses in transition can be monotone or nonmonotone and can exhibit over-shooting. Our analytic findings and quantitative results help explain some noticeable changes in the capital accumulation, output, and bilateral trade of several countries adopting inflation targeting. Since the permanent effects of a temporary change in the domestic inflation target on the pattern of international trade and the performance of the macroeconomy are driven by a new channel through the world distribution of capital, we add new insights to the literature.

This paper introduces a new measure to capture dynamic losses for exporting firms on markets that exhibit hysteresis on the supply side. Our indicator aims to quantify dynamic losses caused by sunk adjustment costs in case of exchange rate fluctuations. While the standard procedure in welfare analysis is to compare two equilibria, we focus on welfare effects that take place during dynamics. We analyze negative dynamic effects on producers' income that are generated due to writing off sunk adjustment costs. As an example, we investigate Italian wine exports to the United States over the period 1995–2013. After testing for hysteresis on the market, we present the indicator of hysteresis losses. It captures a continuous increase of dynamic losses during the period 2003–2008. Moreover, over-proportionately large hysteresis losses are generated in comparison to the exchange rate changes if the pain threshold of the exchange rate (ca. 1.25$/€) is passed.

This paper examines the consequences of international financial integration in a two-sector standard incomplete markets model with occupational choice under risk and financial constraints affecting entrepreneurial activity. We endogenize international productivity differences and discuss the implications of international integration for the macroeconomy, inequality, and welfare. Lending countries are characterized by tighter domestic constraints and experience an increase in gross national product, whereas the gross domestic product effect is ambiguous. We conclude that international integration is beneficial only for economies where there are substantial financial constraints on entrepreneurial activity. Otherwise, a majority of households suffer, due to the unequal distribution of welfare gains and losses across the heterogeneous population.

This paper studies optimal labor-income taxation in a simple model with credit constraints on firms. The labor-income tax rate and the shadow value on the credit constraint induce a wedge between the marginal product of labor and the marginal rate of substitution between labor and consumption. It is found that optimal policy prescribes a volatile path for the labor-income tax rate even in the presence of state-contingent debt and capital. In this respect, credit frictions are akin to a form of market incompleteness. Credit frictions break the equivalence between tax smoothing and wedge smoothing; therefore, as the tightness of the credit constraint varies over the business cycle, tax volatility is needed in order to counter this variation and, as a result, allow for wedge smoothing.

We analyze job switching and wage growth of young workers, separately considering the jobs experienced by workers before and after college completion. These two groups of jobs consist of very different occupational compositions. Workers with many jobs before college completion (JBCC) and with little or no job experiences before college completion have similar subsequent wage paths. These facts can be interpreted that JBCC contribute less to career building compared to the ones after college completion. If we disregard all JBCC, the number of jobs that are experienced by workers before age 35 are about three jobs fewer than the total number of jobs.

We investigate the demand for money and the degree of substitutability among monetary assets in the United States using the generalized Leontief and the Minflex Laurent (ML) models as suggested by Serletis and Shahmoradi (2007). In doing so, we merge the demand systems literature with the recent financial econometrics literature, relaxing the homoskedasticity assumption and instead assuming that the covariance matrix of the errors of flexible demand systems is time-varying. We also pay explicit attention to theoretical regularity, treating the curvature property as a maintained hypothesis. Our findings indicate that only the curvature constrained ML model with a Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK) specification for the conditional covariance matrix is able to generate inference consistent with theoretical regularity.

We study the effect of exporting on markups building on two stylized facts: (1) exporters charge higher markups than nonexporters and (2) firms increase markups when they start to export. These facts suggest that exporting increases markups, but the causal relationship has not been studied directly. To do so, we modify Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) by adding decreasing returns technologies and demand and productivity shocks to account for sales correlations across markets. We calibrate and simulate a trade cost reduction. Old exporters increase markups on average, while new ones reduce them. Three mechanisms matter: (1) cost reductions are not fully passed on to prices, (2) firms expand, increasing marginal cost, and (3) foreign demand is more elastic than domestic demand. The first effect dominates along the intensive margin, while the others prevail along the extensive margin. Thus, exporters charge larger markups in spite of exporting, not because of it.

This paper shows that expectations of possible future regime shifts can contribute to recent deep downturn and stagnant recovery in the US labor market. Apart from the current economic regimes, rational agents consider how regimes will unfold in the future and form their expectations based on the probability of occurrence. Possible regime shifts considered are the stance of monetary policy toward inflation, the degree of real wage rigidity, and the degree of autocorrelation of the shock process. The anticipation of regime shifts alters agents' decision rules and feeds back to labor market dynamics.