Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are similarly structured viruses with similar environmental survival, but different routes of transmission. While RSV is transmitted predominantly by direct and indirect contact, influenza is also transmitted by aerosol. The cold, dry conditions of temperate winters appear to encourage the transmission of both viruses, by increasing influenza virus survival in aerosols, and increasing influenza and RSV survival on surfaces. In contrast, the hot, wet conditions of tropical rainy seasons appear to discourage aerosol transmission of influenza, by reducing the amount of influenza virus that is aerosolized, and probably also by reducing influenza survival in aerosol. The wet conditions of tropical rainy seasons may, however, encourage contact transmission of both viruses, by increasing the amount of virus that is deposited on surfaces, and by increasing virus survival in droplets on surfaces. This evidence suggests that the increased incidence of influenza and RSV in tropical rainy seasons may be due to increased contact transmission. This hypothesis is consistent with the observation that tropical rainy seasons appear to encourage the transmission of RSV more than influenza. More research is required to examine the environmental survival of respiratory viruses in the high humidity and temperature of the tropics.

The age distribution of influenza A(H5N1) cases reported during 2006–2013 varied substantially between countries. As well as underlying demographic profiles, it is possible that cross-immunity contributed to the age distribution of reported cases: seasonal influenza A(H1N1) and avian influenza A(H5N1) share the same neuraminidase subtype, N1. Using a mechanistic model, we measured the extent to which population age distribution and heterosubtypic cross-immunity could explain the observed age patterns in Cambodia, China, Egypt, Indonesia and Vietnam. Our results support experimental evidence that prior infection with H1N1 confers partial cross-immunity to H5N1, and suggest that more than 50% of spillover events did not lead to reported cases of infection as a result. We also identified age groups that have additional risk factors for influenza A(H5N1) not captured by demography or infection history.

Effective use of data linkage is becoming an increasingly important focus in the new healthcare system in England. We linked data from the results of a multiplex PCR assay for respiratory viruses for a population of 230 inpatients at a UK teaching hospital with their patient administrative system records in order to compare the mortality and length of stay of patients who tested positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with those positive for another influenza A virus. The results indicated a reduced risk of death among influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 patients compared to other influenza A strains, with an adjusted risk ratio of 0·25 (95% confidence interval 0·08–0·75, P = 0·01), while no significant differences were found between the lengths of stay in the hospital for these two groups. Further development of such methods to link hospital data in a routine fashion could provide a rapid means of gaining epidemiological insights into emerging infectious diseases.

Data were extracted from the case records of UK patients admitted with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. White and non-White patients were characterized by age, sex, socioeconomic status, pandemic wave and indicators of pre-morbid health status. Logistic regression examined differences by ethnicity in patient characteristics, care pathway and clinical outcomes; multivariable models controlled for potential confounders. Whites (n = 630) and non-Whites (n = 510) differed by age, socioeconomic status, pandemic wave of admission, pregnancy, recorded obesity, previous and current smoking, and presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. After adjustment for a priori confounders non-Whites were less likely to have received pre-admission antibiotics [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0·43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·28–0·68, P < 0·001) but more likely to receive antiviral drugs as in-patients (aOR 1·53, 95% CI 1·08–2·18, P = 0·018). However, there were no significant differences by ethnicity in delayed admission, severity at presentation for admission, or likelihood of severe outcome.

School closure is one of the most common interventions in the early weeks of an influenza pandemic. Few studies have investigated social contact patterns and compared individual student contact characteristics during the school term and holiday periods in Taiwan. Here, we conducted a well-used questionnaire survey in a junior high school (grades 7–8) in June 2013. All 150 diary-based effective questionnaires covering conversation and skin-to-skin contact behaviour were surveyed. Two questionnaires for each participant were designed to investigate the individual-level difference of contact numbers per day during the two periods. The questionnaire response rate was 44%. The average number of contacts during term time (20·0 contacts per day) and holiday periods (12·6 contacts per day) were significantly different (P < 0·05). The dominant contact frequencies and duration were everyday contact (89·10%) and contacts lasting less than 5 minutes (37·09%). The greatest differences occurred within the 13–19 years age groups. The result presented in this study provide an indication of the likely reduction in daily contact frequency that might occur if a school closure policy was adopted in the event of an influenza pandemic in Taiwan. Comparing contact patterns during term time and holiday periods, the number of contacts decreased by 40%. This study is the first research to investigate the contact numbers and contact characteristics for school-age children during the school term and a holiday period in Taiwan. With regard to public health, this study could provide the basic contact information and database for modelling influenza epidemics for minimizing the spread of influenza that depends on personal contacts for transmission.

Microbial subtyping approaches are commonly used for source attribution of human salmonellosis. Such methods require data on Salmonella in animals and humans, outbreaks, infection abroad and amounts of food available for consumption. A source attribution model was applied to 24 European countries, requiring special data management to produce a standardized dataset. Salmonellosis data on animals and humans were obtained from datasets provided by the European Food Safety Authority. The amount of food available for consumption was calculated based on production and trade data. Limitations included different types of underreporting, non-participation in prevalence studies, and non-availability of trade data. Cases without travel information were assumed to be domestic; non-subtyped human or animal records were re-identified according to proportions observed in reference datasets; missing trade information was estimated based on previous years. The resulting dataset included data on 24 serovars in humans, broilers, laying hens, pigs and turkeys in 24 countries.

Notification of infectious disease is essential for prompt public health action and epidemiological analysis. The aim of this study was to compare national hospitalization data to national notification data in order to assess if there was significant under-reporting of hospitalized notifiable infectious diseases in recent years in Ireland. All in-patient discharges from public hospitals in the Republic of Ireland from 2006 to 2011 with a principal diagnosis of a notifiable disease were compared with national notification data. It was found that only a potential 1·8% of extra notifications could have arisen due to these hospitalization events and would represent a tenfold reduction on a previous estimate of under-reporting in the Irish context. Viral meningitis, viral encephalitis, bacterial meningitis not otherwise specified and malaria were the most common diseases for which there were more hospitalizations than notifications reported. The results of this study support the conclusion that the reduction in under-reporting can mainly be accounted for by the introduction of laboratories as notifiers in conjunction with the roll out of the Computerized Infectious Disease Reporting system (CIDR). However, for the diseases highlighted, the notification data underestimates the true burden of disease and this has implications for understanding the epidemiology of these diseases.

A Bayesian modelling approach comparing the occurrence of Salmonella serovars in animals and humans was used to attribute salmonellosis cases to broilers, turkeys, pigs, laying hens, travel and outbreaks in 24 European Union countries. Salmonella data for animals and humans, covering the period from 2007 to 2009, were mainly obtained from studies and reports published by the European Food Safety Authority. Availability of food sources for consumption was derived from trade and production data from the European Statistical Office. Results showed layers as the most important reservoir of human salmonellosis in Europe, with 42·4% (7 903 000 cases, 95% credibility interval 4 181 000–14 510 000) of cases, 95·9% of which was caused by S. Enteritidis. In Finland and Sweden, most cases were travel-related, while in most other countries the main sources were related to the laying hen or pig reservoir, highlighting differences in the epidemiology of Salmonella, surveillance focus and eating habits across the European Union.

Patagonia in southern South America is among the few world regions where direct human impact is still limited but progressively increasing, mainly represented by tourism, farming, fishing and mining activities. The sanitary condition of Patagonian wildlife is unknown, in spite of being critical for the assessment of anthropogenic effects there. The aim of this study was the characterization of Salmonella enterica strains isolated from wild colonies of Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) located in Magdalena Island and Otway Sound, in Chilean Patagonia. Eight isolates of Salmonella were found, belonging to Agona and Enteritidis serotypes, with an infection rate of 0·38%. Resistance to ampicillin, cefotaxime, ceftiofur and tetracycline antimicrobials were detected, and some of these strains showed genotypic similarity with Salmonella strains isolated from humans and gulls, suggesting inter-species transmission cycles and strengthening the role of penguins as sanitary sentinels in the Patagonian ecosystem.

Salmonellosis is a foodborne disease of humans and animals caused by infection with Salmonella. The aim of this paper is to improve a deterministic model (DM) and an individual-based model (IBM) with reference to Salmonella propagation in flocks of laying hens taking into account variations in hens housed in the same cage and to compare both models. The spatio-temporal evolution, the basic reproduction number, R 0, and the speed of wave propagation were computed for both models. While in most cases the DM allows summary of all the features of the model in the formula for computation of R 0, slight differences between individuals or groups may be observed with the IBM that could not be expected from the DM, especially when initial environmental contamination is very low and some cages may get rid of bacteria. Both models suggest that the cage size plays a role on the risk and speed of propagation of the bacteria, which should be considered when designing new breeding systems.

Faecal samples from 804 cattle and buffaloes and 165 diarrhoeal children of Ismailia province were investigated by an immunochromatographic screening test and PCR to determine prevalences and distributions of Cryptosporidium spp. Results were analysed statistically for clustering of animal and human cases. Cryptosporidium herd prevalence was 73·3% and individual animal prevalence 32·3%. C. parvum was the dominant species in animals (65·7%). Young calves watered with canal or underground water were at particular risk of infection. Detection rates were higher when calves showed diarrhoea, fever and dehydration. Human Cryptosporidium prevalence was 49·1%. C. hominis dominated in humans (60·5%), followed by C. parvum (38·3%). Living in villages, drinking underground water and having contact with animals were risk factors. Cluster analysis revealed differences in the distribution of infections between animals and humans and suggests different transmission dynamics.

Cryptosporidium hominis is one of the most prevalent protozoan parasites to infect humans where transmission is via the consumption of infective oocysts. This study describes sporadic cases in addition to the molecular diversity of outbreak cases in Scotland using the glycoprotein-60 subtyping tool. From a total of 187 C. hominis isolates, 65 were subjected to further molecular analysis and 46 were found to be the common IbA10G2 subtype. Unusual subtypes included four isolates belonging to the Ia family (IaA14R3, n = 12; IaA14R2, n = 1; IaA9G3, n = 1; IaA25R3, n = 2), two from the Id family (IdA24, n = 1; IdA17, n = 1) and one belonging to the Ie family, namely IeA11G3T3. These data contribute significantly to our knowledge and understanding of the molecular diversity of C. hominis isolates from outbreak investigations involving Scottish residents which will be beneficial for the management of future outbreaks.

The purpose of this study was to identify the clinical outcomes of ambulatory-treated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and risk factors associated with community-associated CDI (CA-CDI). Adult patients diagnosed with CDI in the institutional or ambulatory-care setting between 1 April 2005 and 30 April 2011, with no other CDI diagnosis in the previous 180 days, and who purchased an ambulatory, anti-CDI agent within 7 days of CDI diagnosis were included. A total of 1201 patients were included with 914 (76%) and 287 (24%) identified with CA-CDI and nosocomial CDI (N-CDI), respectively. Patients with N-CDI were more likely to have had a recurrent CDI (P = 0·043) and died from any cause (P < 0·001). Patients with CA-CDI were younger, healthier, and had fewer traditional risk factors compared to patients with N-CDI. To prevent CA-CDI, clinicians should be aware that patients at risk for CA-CDI are unique from those at risk for N-CDI.

We performed a study to determine rates of reinfection in three groups followed for 2 years after successful treatment: American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) persons living in urban (group 1) and rural (group 2) communities, and urban Alaska non-Native persons (group 3). We enrolled adults diagnosed with H. pylori infection based on a positive urea breath test (13C-UBT). After successful treatment was documented at 2 months, we tested each patient by 13C-UBT at 4, 6, 12 and 24 months. At each visit, participants were asked about medication use, illnesses and risk factors for reinfection. We followed 229 persons for 2 years or until they became reinfected. H. pylori reinfection occurred in 36 persons; cumulative reinfection rates were 14·5%, 22·1%, and 12·0% for groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Study participants who became reinfected were more likely to have peptic ulcer disease (P = 0·02), low education level (P = 0·04), or have a higher proportion of household members infected with H. pylori compared to participants who did not become reinfected (P = 0·03). Among all three groups, reinfection occurred at rates higher than those reported for other US populations (<5% at 2 years); rural AI/AN individuals appear to be at highest risk for reinfection.

This study aimed to assess and compare the epidemiology of faecal carriage of extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing enterobacteria (ESBL-E) in Hepatology departments of two hospitals specializing in liver diseases, Theodor Bilharz Research Institute (TBRI) in Cairo (Egypt) and Beaujon Hospital (Bj) in Clichy (France). CTX-M groups were identified by PCR, and TEM and SHV derivatives with the check-point system. Phylogenetic groups of E. coli were determined by multiplex PCR, and clone ST131 by PCR of gene pabB. Prevalence of ESBL-E was 77·6% (45/58) in TBRI and 6·5% (13/199) in Bj (P < 10−7). Previous hospitalization was more common (P = 0·003) in Bj patients (93%) than in TBRI patients (45%) suggesting high prevalence of ESBL-E in the Egyptian community. The presence of E. coli B2 ST131 among ESBL-E faecal E. coli in Egypt confirms its pervasiveness in the community and raises concern regarding this highly virulent and resistant clone.

Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with ‘stamping-out’ of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the ‘stamping-out’ strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

A dengue vaccine is expected to be available within a few years. Once vaccine is available, policy-makers will need to develop suitable policies to allocate the vaccine. Mathematical models of dengue transmission predict complex temporal patterns in prevalence, driven by seasonal oscillations in mosquito abundance. In particular, vaccine introduction may induce a transient period immediately after vaccine introduction where prevalence can spike higher than in the pre-vaccination period. These spikes in prevalence could lead to doubts about the vaccination programme among the public and even among decision-makers, possibly impeding the vaccination programme. Using simple dengue transmission models, we found that large transient spikes in prevalence are robust phenomena that occur when vaccine coverage and vaccine efficacy are not either both very high or both very low. Despite the presence of transient spikes in prevalence, the models predict that vaccination does always reduce the total number of infections in the 15 years after vaccine introduction. We conclude that policy-makers should prepare for spikes in prevalence after vaccine introduction to mitigate the burden of these spikes and to accurately measure the effectiveness of the vaccine programme.

While rabies is a significant public health concern in China, the epidemiology of animal rabies in the north and northwest border provinces remains unknown. From February 2013 to March 2014, seven outbreaks of domestic animal rabies caused by wild carnivores in Xinjiang (XJ) and Inner Mongolia (IM) Autonomous Regions, China were reported and diagnosed in brain samples of infected animals by the fluorescent antibody test (FAT) and RT–PCR. Ten field rabies viruses were obtained. Sequence comparison and phylogenetic analysis based on the complete N gene (1353 bp) amplified directly from the original brain tissues showed that these ten strains were steppe-type viruses, closely related to strains reported in Russia and Mongolia. None had been identified previously in China. The viruses from XJ and IM clustered separately into two lineages showing their different geographical distribution. This study emphasizes the importance of wildlife surveillance and of cross-departmental cooperation in the control of transboundary rabies transmission.

Newcastle disease (ND) is one of the most important poultry diseases worldwide and can lead to annual losses of up to 80% of backyard chickens in Africa. All bird species are considered susceptible to ND virus (NDV) infection but little is known about the role that wild birds play in the epidemiology of the virus. We present a long-term monitoring of 9000 wild birds in four African countries. Overall, 3·06% of the birds were PCR-positive for NDV infection, with prevalence ranging from 0% to 10% depending on the season, the site and the species considered. Our study shows that ND is circulating continuously and homogeneously in a large range of wild bird species. Several genotypes of NDV circulate concurrently in different species and are phylogenetically closely related to strains circulating in local domestic poultry, suggesting that wild birds may play several roles in the epidemiology of different NDV strains in Africa. We recommend that any strategic plan aiming at controlling ND in Africa should take into account the potential role of the local wild bird community in the transmission of the disease.

Previous studies have shown the association between the polymorphisms serine (S) or aspartic acid (D) at codon 146 of the PRNP gene and resistance to scrapie. All goats aged >12 months (a total of 1075 animals) from four herds with the highest prevalence of scrapie in the country were culled and tested, of which 234 (21·7%) were positive by either the rapid test or immunohistochemistry (IHC) for any of the tissues tested. The odds of scrapie infection occurring in NN146 goats was 101 [95% credible interval (CrI) 19–2938] times higher than for non-NN146 or unknown genotypes. IHC applied to lymphoreticular tissue produced the highest sensitivity (94%, 95% CrI 90–97). The presence of putatively resistant non-NN146 alleles in the Cypriot goat population, severely affected by scrapie, provides a potential tool to reduce/eradicate scrapie provided that coordinated nationwide breeding programmes are implemented and maintained over time.