Environmental risk assessments can provide high confidence of minimal risk by testing theories, “risk hypotheses”, that predict the likelihood of unacceptable harmful events. The creation of risk hypotheses and a plan to test them is called problem formulation. Effective problem formulation seeks to maximize the possibility of detecting effects that indicate potential risk; if such effects are not detected, minimal risk is indicated with high confidence. Two important implications are that artificial test conditions can increase confidence, whereas prescriptive data requirements can reduce confidence (increase uncertainty) if they constrain problem formulation. Poor problem formulation can increase environmental risk because it leads to the collection of superfluous data that may delay or prevent the introduction of environmentally beneficial products.

Recapitulating how genetic modification technology and its agro-food products aroused strong societal opposition in the European Union, this paper demonstrates how this opposition contributed to shape the European regulatory frame on GM crops. More specifically, it describes how this opposition contributed to a de facto moratorium on the commercialization of new GM crop events in the end of the nineties. From this period onwards, the regulatory frame has been continuously revised in order to slow down further erosion of public and market confidence. Various scientific and technical reforms were made to meet societal concerns relating to the safety of GM crops. In this context, the precautionary principle, environmental post-market monitoring and traceability were adopted as ways to cope with scientific uncertainties. Labeling, traceability, co-existence and public information were installed in an attempt to meet the general public request for more information about GM agro-food products, and the specific demand to respect the consumers' and farmers' freedom of choice. Despite these efforts, today, the explicit role of public participation and/or ethical consultation during authorization procedures is at best minimal. Moreover, no legal room was created to progress to an integral sustainability evaluation during market procedures. It remains to be seen whether the recent policy shift towards greater transparency about value judgments, plural viewpoints and scientific uncertainties will be one step forward in integrating ethical concerns more explicitly in risk analysis. As such, the regulatory frame stands open for further interpretation, reflecting in various degrees a continued interplay with societal concerns relating to GM agro-food products. In this regard, both societal concerns and diversely interpreted regulatory criteria can be inferred as signaling a request – and even a quest – to render more explicit the broader-than-scientific dimension of the actual risk analysis.

Modeling pollen dispersal to predict cross-pollination is of great importance for the ongoing discussion of adventitious presence of genetically modified material in food and feed. Two different modeling approaches for pollen dispersal were used to simulate two years of data for the rate of cross-pollination of non-GM maize (Zea mays (L.)) fields by pollen from a central 1 ha transgenic field. The models combine the processes of wind pollen dispersal (transport) and pollen competition. Both models used for the simulation of pollen dispersal were Lagrangian approaches: a stochastic particle Lagrange model and a Lagrangian transfer function model. Both modeling approaches proved to be appropriate for the simulation of the cross-pollination rates. However, model performance differed significantly between years. We considered different complexity in meteorological input data. Predictions compare well with experimental results for all simplification steps, except that systematic deviations occurred when only main wind direction was used. Concluding, it can be pointed out that both models might be adapted to other pollen dispersal experiments of different crops and plot sizes, when wind direction statistics are available. However, calibration of certain model parameters is necessary.

Natural out-crossing rates were evaluated for conventional soybeans (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) cultivated adjacent to genetically modified (GM) glyphosate-tolerant soybeans under field conditions during a four-year period in Japan. A total of 107 846 progeny of 2772 plants harvested from conventional varieties were screened for glyphosate herbicide tolerance. The highest out-crossing rates, 0.19% in 2001 and 0.16% in 2002, were observed in adjacent rows 0.7 m from the pollen source. The highest rate in 2004 was 0.052%, which was observed at 2.1 m. No out-crossing was observed in the rows 10.5 m from the pollen source over the four-year period. The farthest distances between receptor and pollen source at which out-crossing was observed were 7 m in 2001, 2.8 m in 2002, and 3.5 m in 2004. The greatest airborne pollen density during the flowering period, determined by Durham pollen samplers located between the rows of each variety, was 0.368 grains.cm-2.day-1, with the average value at 0.18 grains.cm-2.day-1, indicating that the possibility of out-crossing by wind is minimal. Thrips species and predatory Hemiptera visited the soybean flowers more frequently during the four-year period than any other common pollinators, such as bees.