Coffee berry diseases (CBD) pose significant threats to coffee production worldwide, affecting the livelihoods of millions of farmers and the global coffee market. Fractional calculus provides a powerful framework for describing non-local and memory-dependent phenomena, making it suitable for modelling the long-range interactions inherent in CBD spread. This study aims to formulate and analyse fractional order model for CBD transmission dynamics in the sense of Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo. Fixed point theorems were utilised to test the existence and uniqueness of the model’s solutions using fractional order. The basic reproduction number was calculated utilising the next-generation matrix. The model has locally asymptotically stable equilibrium positions (disease-free and endemic). Furthermore, the Lyapunov function was used to conduct a global stability analysis of the equilibrium locations. A numerical simulation of the CBD model was created using the fractional Adam–Bashforth–Moulton approach to validate the analytical findings. Our findings contribute to the development of more accurate predictive models and inform the design of targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of CBD on coffee production systems.

In this paper, we consider a delayed discrete single population patch model in advective environments. The individuals are subject to both random and directed movements, and there is a net loss of individuals at the downstream end due to the flow into a lake. Choosing time delay as a bifurcation parameter, we show the existence of Hopf bifurcations for the model. In homogeneous non-advective environments, it is well known that the first Hopf bifurcation value is independent of the dispersal rate. In contrast, for homogeneous advective environments, the first Hopf bifurcation value depends on the dispersal rate. Moreover, we show that the first Hopf bifurcation value in advective environments is larger than that in non-advective environments if the dispersal rate is large or small, which suggests that directed movements of the individuals inhibit the occurrence of Hopf bifurcations.

This article offers an advanced and novel investigation into the intricate propagation dynamics of the Belousov–Zhabotinsky system with non-local delayed interaction, which exhibits dynamical transition structure from bistable to monostable. We first solved the enduring open problem concerning the existence, uniqueness and the speed sign of the bistable travelling waves. In the monostable case, we developed and derived new results for the minimal wave speed selection, which, as an application, further improved the existing investigations on pushed and pulled wavefronts. Our results can provide new estimate to the minimal speed as well as to the determinacy of the transition parameters. Moreover, these results can be directly applied to standard localised models and delayed reaction diffusion models by choosing appropriate kernel functions.

Infection mechanism plays a significant role in epidemic models. To investigate the influence of saturation effect, a nonlocal (convolution) dispersal susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model with saturated incidence is considered. We first study the impact of dispersal rates and total population size on the basic reproduction number. Yang, Li and Ruan (J. Differ. Equ. 267 (2019) 2011–2051) obtained the limit of basic reproduction number as the dispersal rate tends to zero or infinity under the condition that a corresponding weighted eigenvalue problem has a unique positive principal eigenvalue. We remove this additional condition by a different method, which enables us to reduce the problem on the limiting profile of the basic reproduction number into that of the spectral bound of the corresponding operator. Then we establish the existence and uniqueness of endemic steady states by a equivalent equation and finally investigate the asymptotic profiles of the endemic steady states for small and large diffusion rates to provide reference for disease prevention and control, in which the lack of regularity of the endemic steady state and Harnack inequality makes the limit function of the sequence of the endemic steady state hard to get. Finally, we find whether lowing the movements of susceptible individuals can eradicate the disease or not depends on not only the sign of the difference between the transmission rate and the recovery rate but also the total population size, which is different from that of the model with standard or bilinear incidence.

Flowering plants depend on some animals for pollination and contribute to nourish the animals in natural environments. We call these animals pollinators and build a plants-pollinators cooperative model with impulsive effect on a periodically evolving domain. Next, we define the ecological reproduction index for single plant model and plants-pollinators system, respectively, whose threshold dynamics, including the extinction, persistence and coexistence, is established by the method of upper and lower solutions. Theoretical analysis shows that a large domain evolution rate has a positive influence on the survival of pollinators whether or not the impulsive effect occurs, and the pulse eliminates the pollinators even when the evolution rate is high. Moreover, some selective numerical simulations are still performed to explain our theoretical results.

In this paper, we analyse Turing instability and bifurcations in a host–parasitoid model with nonlocal effect. For a ordinary differential equation model, we provide some preliminary analysis on Hopf bifurcation. For a reaction–diffusion model with local intraspecific prey competition, we first explore the Turing instability of spatially homogeneous steady states. Next, we show that the model can undergo Hopf bifurcation and Turing–Hopf bifurcation, and find that a pair of spatially nonhomogeneous periodic solutions is stable for a (8,0)-mode Turing–Hopf bifurcation and unstable for a (3,0)-mode Turing–Hopf bifurcation. For a reaction–diffusion model with nonlocal intraspecific prey competition, we study the existence of the Hopf bifurcation, double-Hopf bifurcation, Turing bifurcation, and Turing–Hopf bifurcation successively, and find that a spatially nonhomogeneous quasi-periodic solution is unstable for a (0,1)-mode double-Hopf bifurcation. Our results indicate that the model exhibits complex pattern formations, including transient states, monostability, bistability, and tristability. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate complex dynamics and verify our theoretical results.

This research studies the robustness of permanence and the continuous dependence of the stationary distribution on the parameters for a stochastic predator–prey model with Beddington–DeAngelis functional response. We show that if the model is extinct (resp. permanent) for a parameter, it is still extinct (resp. permanent) in a neighbourhood of this parameter. In the case of extinction, the Lyapunov exponent of predator quantity is negative and the prey quantity converges almost to the saturated situation, where the predator is absent at an exponential rate. Under the condition of permanence, the unique stationary distribution converges weakly to the degenerate measure concentrated at the unique limit cycle or at the globally asymptotic equilibrium when the diffusion term tends to 0.

Based on biochemical kinetics, a stochastic model to characterize wastewater treatment plants and dynamics of river water quality under the influence of random fluctuations is proposed in this paper. This model describes the interaction between dissolved oxygen (DO) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and is in the form of stochastic differential equations driven by multiplicative Gaussian noises. The stochastic persistence problem for the model of the system is analysed. Further, a numerical simulation of the stationary probability distributions of BOD and OD by approximations of the stochastic process solution is presented. These results have implications for the prediction and control of pollutants.

We generalize the one-dimensional population model of Anguige & Schmeiser [1] reflecting the cell-to-cell adhesion and volume filling and classify the resulting equation into the six types. Among these types, we fix one that yields a class of advection-diffusion equations of forward-backward-forward type and prove the existence of infinitely many global-in-time weak solutions to the initial-Dirichlet boundary value problem when the maximum value of an initial population density exceeds a certain threshold. Such solutions are extracted from the method of convex integration by Müller & Šverák [12]; they exhibit fine-scale density mixtures over a finite time interval, then become smooth and identical, and decay exponentially and uniformly to zero as time approaches infinity. TE check: Please check the reference citation in abstract.

This paper is devoted to the study of the propagation dynamics of a mutualistic model of mistletoes and birds with nonlocal dispersal. By applying the theory of asymptotic speeds of spread and travelling waves for monotone semiflows, we establish the existence of the asymptotic spreading speed $c^*$, the existence of travelling wavefronts with the wave speed $c\ge c^*$ and the nonexistence of travelling wavefronts with $c\lt c^*$. It turns out that the spreading speed coincides with the minimal wave speed of travelling wavefronts. Moreover, some lower and upper bound estimates of the spreading speed $c^*$ are provided.

In this paper, we investigate an initial-boundary value problem of a reaction–diffusion equation in a bounded domain with a Robin boundary condition and introduce some particular parameters to consider the non-zero flux on the boundary. This problem arises in the study of mosquito populations under the intervention of the population replacement method, where the boundary condition takes into account the inflow and outflow of individuals through the boundary. Using phase plane analysis, the present paper studies the existence and properties of non-constant steady-state solutions depending on several parameters. Then, we prove some sufficient conditions for their stability. We show that the long-time efficiency of this control method depends strongly on the size of the treated zone and the migration rate. To illustrate these theoretical results, we provide some numerical simulations in the framework of mosquito population control.

We analyze the long-term stability of a stochastic model designed to illustrate the adaptation of a population to variation in its environment. A piecewise deterministic process modeling adaptation is coupled to a Feller logistic diffusion modeling population size. As the individual features in the population become further away from the optimal ones, the growth rate declines, making population extinction more likely. Assuming that the environment changes deterministically and steadily in a constant direction, we obtain the existence and uniqueness of the quasi-stationary distribution, the associated survival capacity, and the Q-process. Our approach also provides several exponential convergence results (in total variation for the measures). From this synthetic information, we can characterize the efficiency of internal adaptation (i.e. population turnover from mutant invasions). When the latter is lacking, there is still stability, but because of the high level of population extinction. Therefore, any characterization of internal adaptation should be based on specific features of this quasi-ergodic regime rather than the mere existence of the regime itself.

Motivated by applications to COVID dynamics, we describe a model of a branching process in a random environment $\{Z_n\}$ whose characteristics change when crossing upper and lower thresholds. This introduces a cyclical path behavior involving periods of increase and decrease leading to supercritical and subcritical regimes. Even though the process is not Markov, we identify subsequences at random time points $\{(\tau_j, \nu_j)\}$—specifically the values of the process at crossing times, viz. $\{(Z_{\tau_j}, Z_{\nu_j})\}$—along which the process retains the Markov structure. Under mild moment and regularity conditions, we establish that the subsequences possess a regenerative structure and prove that the limiting normal distributions of the growth rates of the process in supercritical and subcritical regimes decouple. For this reason, we establish limit theorems concerning the length of supercritical and subcritical regimes and the proportion of time the process spends in these regimes. As a byproduct of our analysis, we explicitly identify the limiting variances in terms of the functionals of the offspring distribution, threshold distribution, and environmental sequences.

Exact solutions are constructed for a class of nonlinear hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations in two-space dimensions. Reduction of variables and subsequent solutions follow from a special nonclassical symmetry that uncovers a conditionally integrable system, equivalent to the linear Helmholtz equation. The hyperbolicity is commonly associated with a speed limit due to a delay, $\tau $, between gradients and fluxes. With lethal boundary conditions on a circular domain wherein a species population exhibits logistic growth of Fisher–KPP type with equal time lag, the critical domain size for avoidance of extinction does not depend on $\tau $. A diminishing exact solution within a circular domain is also constructed, when the reaction represents a weak Allee effect of Huxley type. For a combustion reaction of Arrhenius type, the only known exact solution that is finite but unbounded is extended to allow for a positive $\tau $.

In this paper, we consider the dynamical behaviour of a reaction–diffusion model for a population residing in a one-dimensional habit, with emphasis on the effects of boundary conditions and protection zone. We assume that the population is subjected to a strong Allee effect in its natural domain but obeys a monostable nonlinear growth in the protection zone $[L_1,\, L_2]$ with two constants satisfying $0\leq L_1< L_2$, and the general Robin condition is imposed on $x=0$ (i.e. $u(t,\,0)=bu_x(t,\,0)$ with $b\geq 0$). We show the existence of two critical values $0< L_*\leq L^*$, and prove that a vanishing–transition–spreading trichotomy result holds when the length of protection zone is smaller than $L_*$; a transition–spreading dichotomy result holds when the length of protection zone is between $L_*$ and $L^*$; only spreading happens when the length of protection zone is larger than $L^*$. Based on the properties of $L_*$, we obtain the precise strategies for an optimal protection zone: if $b$ is large (i.e. $b\geq 1/\sqrt {-g'(0)}$), the protection zone should start from somewhere near $0$; while if $b$ is small (i.e. $b< 1/\sqrt {-g'(0)}$), then the protection zone should start from somewhere away from $0$, and as far away from $0$ as possible.

This paper is focused on spreading dynamics for a discrete Nicholson's blowflies model with time convolution kernel. This problem arises in the invasive activity of blowflies scattered in discrete spatial environment and has distributed maturated age. We found that for a general convolution kernel, the model can exhibit travelling wave phenomena in a discrete spatial habitat. In particular, we determine the minimal wave speed of travelling waves by deriving the non-existence of travelling waves, and we demonstrate that the minimal wave speed can determine the long time behaviour of solutions with compact initial function. Moreover, we prove that all travelling waves are strictly increasing, which implies that the waveforms remain monotone in the propagation process. Some numerical simulations are also presented to confirm the analytical results.

We consider a spatial model of cancer in which cells are points on the d-dimensional torus $\mathcal{T}=[0,L]^d$, and each cell with $k-1$ mutations acquires a kth mutation at rate $\mu_k$. We assume that the mutation rates $\mu_k$ are increasing, and we find the asymptotic waiting time for the first cell to acquire k mutations as the torus volume tends to infinity. This paper generalizes results on waiting for $k\geq 3$ mutations in Foo et al. (2020), which considered the case in which all of the mutation rates $\mu_k$ are the same. In addition, we find the limiting distribution of the spatial distances between mutations for certain values of the mutation rates.

The exponential ordering is exploited in the context of nonautonomous delay systems, inducing monotone skew-product semiflows under less restrictive conditions than usual. Some dynamical concepts linked to the order, such as semiequilibria, are considered for the exponential ordering, with implications for the determination of the presence of uniform persistence or the existence of global attractors. Also, some important conclusions on the long-term dynamics and attraction are obtained for monotone and sublinear delay systems for this ordering. The results are then applied to almost periodic Nicholson systems and new conditions are given for the existence of a unique almost periodic positive solution which asymptotically attracts every other positive solution.

In this paper, we consider a general single population model with delay and patch structure, which could model the population loss during the dispersal. It is shown that the model admits a unique positive equilibrium when the dispersal rate is smaller than a critical value. The stability of the positive equilibrium and associated Hopf bifurcation are investigated when the dispersal rate is small or near the critical value. Moreover, we show the effect of network topology on Hopf bifurcation values for a delayed logistic population model.

This paper concerns the monostable cooperative system with nonlocal diffusion and free boundaries, which has recently been discussed by Du and Ni [J. Differential equations 308(2021) 369-420 and arXiv:2010.01244]. We here aim at four aspects: the first is to give more accurate estimates for the longtime behaviours of the solution; the second is to discuss the limits of solution pair of a semi-wave problem; the third is to investigate the asymptotic behaviours of the corresponding Cauchy problem; the last is to study the limiting profiles of the solution as one of the expanding rates of free boundaries converges to $\infty$. Moreover, some epidemic models are given to illustrate their own rich longtime behaviours, which are quite different from those of the relevant existing works.