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Household survey estimates of retirement income suffer from substantial underreporting which biases downward measures of elderly financial well-being. Using data from both the 2016 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), matched with administrative records, we examine to what extent underreporting of retirement income affects key statistics: elderly reliance on social security benefits and poverty. We find that retirement income is underreported in both the CPS ASEC and the HRS. Consequently, the relative importance of social security income remains overstated – 53 percent of elderly beneficiaries in the CPS ASEC and 49 percent in the HRS rely on social security for the majority of their incomes compared to 42 percent in the administrative data. The elderly poverty rate is also overstated – 8.8 percent in the CPS ASEC and 7.4 percent in the HRS compared to 6.4 percent in the administrative data.
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) becomes the trustee for private defined benefit plans that have defaulted. The PBGC pays retirement benefits as provided by the plan and that are consistent with federal guidelines concerning the type and amounts of distributions. In response to a Freedom of Information Request, the PBGC provided us with relevant information on all individuals who received retirement benefits from the PBGC in the last 10 years, over 250,000 retirees. Individuals requesting payouts from PBGC managed plans have the option of selecting either a single-life annuity or a joint-and-survivor (J&S) annuity. We examine the PBGC distributions chosen over the last decade and how they vary by age at retirement, sex, months of service, and other relevant variables. Key findings indicate that men are much more likely to choose a joint and survivor annuity compared to female claimants, and the difference increases with age. Conditional on selecting a J&S annuity, men are more likely to select a 100 percent survivor's annuity, while women tend to choose a 50 percent survivor's benefit.
Declining labor force participation of older men throughout the 20th century and recent increases in participation have generated substantial interest in understanding the effect of public pensions on retirement. The National Bureau of Economic Research's International Social Security (ISS) Project, a long-term collaboration among researchers in a dozen developed countries, has explored this and related questions. The project employs a harmonized approach to conduct within-country analyses that are combined for meaningful cross-country comparisons. The key lesson is that the choices of policy makers affect the incentive to work at older ages and these incentives have important effects on retirement behavior.
The decision about when and how much to annuitize is an important element of the retirement planning of most individuals. Optimal annuitization strategies depend on the individual’s exposure to annuity risk, meaning the possibility of meeting unfavorable personal and market conditions at the time of the annuitization decision. This article studies optimal annuitization strategies within a life-cycle consumption and portfolio choice model, focusing on stochastic interest rates as an important source of annuity risk. Closing a gap in the existing literature, our numerical results across different model variants reveal several typical structural effects of interest rate risk on the annuitization decision, which may however vary depending on preference specifications and alternative investment opportunities: When allowing for gradual annuitization, annuity risk is temporally diversified by spreading annuity purchases over the whole pre-retirement period, with annuity market participation starting earlier in the life cycle and becoming more extensive with increasing interest rate risk. Ruling out this temporal diversification possibility, as embedded in many institutional settings, incurs significant welfare losses, which are increasing with higher interest rate risk, together with larger overall demand for annuitization.
While the Chinese government's stated position is to support religious freedom, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is officially atheist. Individuals who profess faith are typically unable to join and members who practice a religion face expulsion and a loss of benefits. This paper analyzes the extent to which the CCP's policies regarding religion may influence religious identification over the life cycle in China. To do so, we contrast changes in religious affiliation before and after retirement for CCP members and non-CCP members. We find a significant increase of religious activities and religious faith in CCP members after retirement – suggesting: (1) people's acknowledgment of religious belief is significantly influenced by CCP regulations and (2) the biggest influence from a material benefits perspective occurs for those CCP members employed in the Chinese government system.
The papers in this 20th Anniversary Special Issue reflect to a large extent how the fields of pension economics and pension finance have developed in the past two decades, although there remain very clear connections to the research published in the Journal's first issue. While there has been great progress in research on pensions and retirement economics over the last 20 years, there remain important outstanding questions for future study.
Compared to the global average, the exit rate of old-aged Iranian labourers is significantly higher than that of middle-aged, raising the hypothesis that social security generosity pulls older workers into early retirement. We used a unique individual dataset of Iran’s Social Security Organization (ISSO), including 267, 000 newly retired in 2016 and 2018, to assess the impact of ISSO’s pension policies on employees’ retirement age. In a counterfactual evaluation design, this study first estimated the implicit tax on work continuation and then applied the Heckman two-stage selection model. The findings show that ISSO’s retirement rules determining the age of exit and benefit eligibilities significantly increase the retirement probability and simultaneously decline the retirement age. Moreover, the implicit tax on work continuation, which reflects ISSO’s benefit formula, has a significant positive effect on retirement probability. The replacement rate also has a significant negative impact on retirement age. The retirement probability in hazardous jobs is higher than in normal ones, while exemptions significantly fall the outflow age of hazardous job holders. To maintain the scheme’s sustainability, reforms have to target an increase in the statutory retirement age, a reduction in the accrual rate, the calculation of reference salary for more extended periods, and the decline of the exemption coefficient for hazardous jobs.
This paper examines financial literacy in Canada using a dataset from early 2023 that measures the knowledge of middle-aged Canadians regarding their retirement income system. We first document important financial literacy differences across gender, age, education, and labor market status. Using detailed questions on the four main aspects of the retirement income system, we then show a strong correlation between financial literacy and the knowledge of the retirement system in Canada. Finally, we provide evidence that general financial literacy and knowledge of the retirement system matter for retirement preparation, by showing that Canadians with higher financial literacy scores and better knowledge of the retirement system are more likely to have a plan for retirement.
Twenty years ago, the adjustment to monthly Social Security benefits for early or delayed claiming was, on average, roughly actuarially fair, although some subsets of individuals could gain from delay. Since then, delaying claiming has become much more attractive thanks to three factors: a more generous delayed retirement credit, improvements in mortality, and historically low real interest rates. In this article, I examine how these three factors influence optimal claiming behavior. I also discuss empirical patterns of claiming across individuals and over time, as well as explanations for these patterns. I argue that although many people appear to claim suboptimally early, this behavior may be changing as information spreads about the importance of the claiming decision. Finally, I discuss policy toward claiming and the impact that an increase in strategic claiming could have on Social Security's finances.
As the heterogeneity in life expectancy by socioeconomic status increases, many pension systems imply a wealth transfer from short- to long-lived individuals. Various pension reforms aim to reduce inequalities that are caused by ex-ante differences in life expectancy. However, these pension reforms may induce redistribution effects. We introduce a dynamic general equilibrium-overlapping generations model with heterogeneous individuals that differ in their education, labor supply, lifetime income, and life expectancy. Within this framework we study six different pension reforms that foster the sustainability of the pension system and aim to account for heterogeneous life expectancy. Our results highlight that pension reforms have to be evaluated at various dimensions. Reforms that may increase the sustainability of the pension system are not necessarily conducive to reduce the redistributive wealth transfers from short- to long-lived individuals. Our paper emphasizes the need for studying pension reforms in models with behavioral feedback and heterogeneous socioeconomic groups.
Pension systems increasingly require active involvement from their participants for retirement planning. This leads to the need for a proper level of financial literacy to foster decision-making. Based on the Chilean Social Protection Survey and the Regional Development Index data, specific characteristics related to the region of residence, such as the quality of life, access to job opportunities, and available connectivity tools, are seen to have a positive impact on pension knowledge. Hence, these regional level results provide inputs to policymakers for developing appropriate policies regarding pension knowledge.
This paper documents trends over the last two decades in retirement behavior and retirement income choices of participants in TIAA, a large and mature defined contribution plan. From 2000 and 2018, the average age at which TIAA participants stopped contributing to their accounts, which is a lower bound on their retirement age, rose by 1.2 years for female and 2.0 years for male participants. There is considerable variation in the elapsed time between the time of the last contribution to and the first income draw from plan accounts. Only 40% of participants take an initial income payment within 48 months of their last contribution. Later retirement and lags between retirement and the first retirement income payout led to a growing fraction of participants reaching the required minimum distribution (RMD) age before starting income draws. Between 2000 and 2018, the fraction of first-time income recipients who took no income until their RMD rose from 10% to 52%, while the fraction of these recipients who selected a life-contingent annuitized payout stream declined from 61% to 18%. Among those who began receiving income before age 70, annuitization rates were significantly higher than among those who did so at older ages. Aggregating across all income-receiving beneficiaries at TIAA, not just new income recipients, the proportion with a life annuity as part of their payout strategy fell from 52% in 2008 to 31% in 2018. By comparison, the proportion of all income recipients taking an RMD payment rose from 16% to 29%. About one-fifth of retirees received more than one type of income; the most common pairing was an RMD and a life annuity. In the later years of our sample, the RMD was becoming the de facto default distribution option for newly retired TIAA participants.
The retirement of old workers increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and health concerns are considered to be a critical factor. To understand the effect of pure health concerns during the pandemic, we analyze the impact of the aggregate health shock on retirement decisions using a life cycle model. The aggregate health shock changes the economy from the normal state to the pandemic state, where the probability of adverse idiosyncratic health shock increases, especially if agents are working. Simulation results suggest that the shock accelerates the retirement of agents aged over 60. The increase in retirement is significant even though the shock is expected to be temporary. Also, the effect hinges on the assumption that working poses a greater risk of receiving a negative health shock than retiring. Even accounting for the large income and wealth changes that US households experienced in 2020, a counterfactual experiment suggests that the aggregate health shock plays a prominent role in increasing retirement.
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a large and immediate drop in employment among U.S. workers, along with major expansions of unemployment insurance (UI) and work from home. We use Current Population Survey and Social Security application data to study employment among older adults and their participation in disability and retirement insurance programs through the second year of the pandemic. We find ongoing improvements in employment outcomes among older workers in the labor force, along with sustained higher levels in the share no longer in the labor force during this period. Applications for Social Security disability benefits remain depressed, particularly for Supplemental Security Income. In models accounting for the expiration of expanded UI, we find some evidence that the loss of these additional financial supports resulted in an increase in disability claiming. Social Security retirement benefit claiming is approximately 3% higher during the second year of the pandemic.
State and local employees comprise a significant proportion of the workforce and are largely covered by defined benefit pensions. Many of these retirement plans have been facing funding gaps, but legal restrictions often prevent them from reducing benefits for current employees. However, retirement plans can reduce liabilities by changing cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, which are commonly applied to benefits each year to allow retirees to maintain purchasing power in retirement. In this study, we examine the prevalence of COLAs in public sector retirement plans through original data collection for 49 plans in 30 states, which cover approximately 52% of public sector workers overall. Among these samples, on average 45% of workers each year experienced some change in COLAs between 2005 and 2018, with more than half of these workers experiencing negative changes. We consider stylized examples of public sector workers subject to reductions in COLAs to understand how COLAs may affect workers’ retirement decisions. Our analysis suggests that eliminating a 3% COLA could delay retirement of affected workers by approximately 4.5 months.
This paper examines inter-industry patterns of the employment of older workers over the last 20 years to understand where employment opportunities have grown the most. The underlying premise is that firms strategically align their age mix depending on production function and labor cost parameters. The industries that had the largest increases in the percentage of older workers were those that had the broadest pension coverage and those that made the greatest use of high-tech capital. There also is evidence in 2001–07 that the percentage of older workers increased more in the industries most exposed to increased Chinese imports.
This paper uses the Current Population Survey to study older workers' transitions out of employment and into retirement during the first year of the pandemic. We find that, among workers ages 55 to 79, the likelihood of leaving employment over the course of a year rose by 6.7 percentage points, a 43-percent increase over baseline. Workers without a college degree, Asian–Americans, those whose jobs were not amenable to social distancing, and part-time workers saw disproportionate impacts. In contrast, the likelihood of retiring increased by 1 percentage point, and there was no immediate retirement boom for full-time workers under 70.
Disability-free life expectancy had been rising continuously in the United States until 2010, suggesting working longer as a solution for those financially unprepared for retirement. However, recent developments suggest improvements in working life expectancy have stalled, especially for minorities and those with less education. This paper uses data from the National Vital Statistics System, the American Community Survey, and the National Health Interview Survey to assess how recent trends, up to 2018, in institutionalization, physical impediments to work, and mortality have affected working life expectancy for men and women age 50, by race and education.
We explore whether ageist stereotypes in job ads are detectable using machine-learning methods measuring the linguistic similarity of job-ad language to ageist stereotypes identified by industrial psychologists. We then conduct an experiment to evaluate whether this language is perceived as biased against older workers searching for jobs. We find that job-ad language classified by the machine-learning algorithm as closely related to ageist stereotypes is perceived by experimental subjects as biased against older job seekers. These methods could potentially help enforce anti-discrimination laws by using job ads to predict or identify employers more likely to be engaging in age discrimination.
This article increases understanding of university labour processes. The antecedents and characteristics of early retirement schemes implemented by Australian universities between 2010 and 2020 were considered. Twenty-eight schemes were identified across 20 universities. Content analysis of descriptions of the schemes contained in official documents was undertaken. This revealed somewhat common justifications for the schemes, linked to concerns about organisational sustainability/resilience in the face of external threats and the implementation of modernising efforts. Such justifications appeared to be underpinned by similar ageist biases on the part of management. Despite this broad commonality, however, the schemes manifested a multifurcation of possible work-retirement pathways across institutions. Such reorganisation of labour processes, based on ageist representations that potentially place established workers in conflict with others, represents an incongruence between the market-oriented objectives of universities and areas of public policy responding to workforce ageing. It is argued that drawing momentum from emerging conceptions of sustainability and current diversity initiatives such as Athena Swan and Age Friendly Universities it may be possible to sever the link university leadership perceive between the divestment of older workers and the fulfilment of modernising agendas.