This paper investigates properties of the class of graphs based on exchangeable point processes. We provide asymptotic expressions for the number of edges, number of nodes, and degree distributions, identifying four regimes: (i) a dense regime, (ii) a sparse, almost dense regime, (iii) a sparse regime with power-law behaviour, and (iv) an almost extremely sparse regime. We show that, under mild assumptions, both the global and local clustering coefficients converge to constants which may or may not be the same. We also derive a central limit theorem for subgraph counts and for the number of nodes. Finally, we propose a class of models within this framework where one can separately control the latent structure and the global sparsity/power-law properties of the graph.

The number N of detectable (i.e. communicating) extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy is usually calculated by using the Drake equation. This equation was established in 1961 by Frank Drake and was the first step to quantifying the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) field. Practically, this equation is rather a simple algebraic expression and its simplistic nature leaves it open to frequent re-expression. An additional problem of the Drake equation is the time-independence of its terms, which for example excludes the effects of the physico-chemical history of the galaxy. Recently, it has been demonstrated that the main shortcoming of the Drake equation is its lack of temporal structure, i.e., it fails to take into account various evolutionary processes. In particular, the Drake equation does not provides any error estimation about the measured quantity. Here, we propose a first treatment of these evolutionary aspects by constructing a simple stochastic process that will be able to provide both a temporal structure to the Drake equation (i.e. introduce time in the Drake formula in order to obtain something like N(t)) and a first standard error measure.

Multivariate stochastic processes with Poisson marginals are of interest in insurance and finance; they can be used to model the joint behaviour of several claim arrival processes, for example. We discuss various methods for the construction of such models, with particular emphasis on the use of copulas. An important class of multivariate counting processes with Poisson marginals arises if the events of a background Poisson process with constant intensity are moved forward in time by a random amount and possibly deleted; here we think of the events of the background process as triggering later claims in different categories. We discuss structural aspects of these models, their dependence properties together with stochastic order aspects, and also some related computational issues. Various actuarial applications are indicated.

This paper investigates the dynamics of a synchronization node in isolation, and of networks of service and synchronization nodes. A synchronization node consists of M infinite capacity buffers, where tokens arriving on M distinct random input flows are stored (there is one buffer for each flow). Tokens are held in the buffers until one is available from each flow. When this occurs, a token is drawn from each buffer to form a group-token, which is instantaneously released as a synchronized departure. Under independent Poisson inputs, the output of a synchronization node is shown to converge weakly (and in certain cases strongly) to a Poisson process with rate equal to the minimum rate of the input flows. Hence synchronization preserves the Poisson property, as do superposition, Bernoulli sampling and M/M/1 queueing operations. We then consider networks of synchronization and exponential server nodes with Bernoulli routeing and exogenous Poisson arrivals, extending the standard Jackson network model to include synchronization nodes. It is shown that if the synchronization skeleton of the network is acyclic (i.e. no token visits any synchronization node twice although it may visit a service node repeatedly), then the distribution of the joint queue-length process of only the service nodes is product form (under standard stability conditions) and easily computable. Moreover, the network output flows converge weakly to Poisson processes. Finally, certain results for networks with finite capacity buffers are presented, and the limiting behavior of such networks as the buffer capacities become large is studied.

For i.i.d. random variables in the domain of attraction of a max-stable distribution with discount and observation costs we determine asymptotic approximations of the optimal stopping values and asymptotically optimal stopping times. The results are based on Poisson approximation of related embedded planar point processes. The optimal stopping problem for the limiting Poisson point processes can be reduced to differential equations for the boundaries. In several cases we obtain numerical solutions of the differential equations. In some cases the analysis allows us to obtain explicit optimal stopping values. This approach thus leads to approximate solutions of the optimal stopping problem of discrete time sequences.

For autoregressive time series with positive innovations which either have heavy right or left tails, linear programming parameter estimates of the autoregressive coefficients have good rates of convergence. However, the asymptotic distribution of the estimators depends heavily on the distribution of the process and thus cannot be used for inference. A bootstrap procedure circumvents this difficulty. We verify the validity of the bootstrap and also give some general comments on the bootstrapping of heavy tailed phenomena.

Alexander McNeil's (1996) study of the Danish data on large fire insurance losses provides an excellent example of the use of extreme value theory in an important application context. We point out how several alternate statistical techniques and plotting devices can buttress McNeil's conclusions and provide flexible tools for other studies.

The expected number of upcrossings for a max-stable process is computed and compared with known results for stable processes. Asymptotically the formulas are of the same order.

Shock models based on Poisson processes have been used to derive univariate and multivariate exponential distributions. But in many applications, Poisson processes are not realistic models of physical shock processes because they have independent increments; expanded models that allow for possibly dependent increments are of interest. In this paper, univariate and bivariate Pólya urn schemes are used to derive models of shock sources. The life distributions obtained from these models form a large parametric family that includes the exponential distribution. Even in the univariate case these life distributions have not been widely used, though they form a large and flexible family. In the bivariate case, the family includes the bivariate exponential distributions of Marshall and Olkin as a special case.

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of empirical processes truncated outside an interval about the (1 – s(n)/n)-quantile where s(n) → ∞ and s(n)/n → 0 as the sample size n tends to ∞. It is shown that extreme value (Poisson) processes and, alternatively, the homogeneous Poisson process may serve as approximations if certain von Mises conditions hold.

Let ψ be a functional of the sample path of a stochastic system driven by a Poisson process with rate λ . It is shown in a very general setting that the expectation of ψ,Eλ [ψ], is an analytic function of λ under certain moment conditions. Instead of following the straightforward approach of proving that derivatives of arbitrary order exist and that the Taylor series converges to the correct value, a novel approach consisting in a change of measure argument in conjunction with absolute monotonicity is used. Functionals of non-homogeneous Poisson processes and Wiener processes are also considered and applications to light traffic derivatives are briefly discussed.

Mathematical models have been proposed for oil exploration and other kinds of search. They can be used to estimate the amount of undiscovered resources or to investigate optimal stopping times for the search. Here we consider a continuous search for hidden objects using a model which represents the number and values of the objects by mixtures of Poisson processes. The flexibility of the model and its complexity depend on the number of components in the mixture. In simple cases, optimal stopping rules can be found explicitly and more general qualitative results can sometimes be obtained.

Consider a Poisson point process of density 1 in Rd, centered so that the origin is one of the points. Using lv distances, 1≦p≦∞, define Nd as the number of other points which have the origin as their nearest neighbor and Vol Vd as the volume of the Voronoi region of the origin. We prove that Nd → Poisson (λ = 1) and Vol Vd → 1 in distribution as d →∞, thus extending previous results from the case p = 2. More generally, for a variety of exchangeable distributions for n + 1 points, e0, · ··, en, in Rd and a variety of distances, we obtain the asymptotic behavior of Ndn, the number of points which have e0 as their nearest neighbor, as n, d → ∞ in one or both of the possible iterated orders. The distributions treated include points distributed on the unit l2 sphere and the distances treated include non-lp distances related to correlation coefficients.

Several different orderings for the comparison of point processes have been introduced and their relationships discussed in Whitt [9], Daley [2] and Deng [4]. It is of some interest to know whether these orderings, in general, are preserved under various operations on point processes. Some results concerning limit operations were given in Deng [4].

In the present paper, we first further introduce some convex and concave orderings for counting processes, and survey the relationships among all orderings mentioned in [9], [4] and this paper. Then we focus our attention on the study of the conditions for the preservation of orderings under the operations of superposition, thinning, shift, and random change of time.

Suppose Y is the strength of a system subjected to a sequence of stresses X1, X2, X3, · ··. Let N(t) be the number of stresses occurring by time t and let T be the lifetime of the system. Then the survival distribution of is given by where and . In this note we aim at determining from the above model various non-parametric classes of life distributions which are of interest in reliability theory.

The Poisson process is regarded as a point process of rare events because of the classical result that the number of successes in a sequence of Bernoulli trials is asymptotically Poisson as the probability of a success tends to 0. It is shown that this rareness property of the Poisson process is characteristic of any infinitely divisible point process or random measure with independent increments. These processes and measures arise as limits of certain rarefactions of compound point processes: purely atomic random measures with uniformly null atom sizes. Examples include thinnings and partitions of point processes.

We investigate, for several models of point processes, the (random) number N of points which have a given point as their nearest neighbor. The largedimensional limit of Poisson processes is treated by considering for n points independently and uniformly distributed in a d-dimensional cube of volume n and showing that Poisson (λ= 1). An asymptotic Poisson (λ= 1) distribution also holds for many of the other models. On the other hand, we find that . Related results concern the (random) volume, , of a Voronoi polytope (or Dirichlet cell) in the cube model; we find that while

For point processes, a pair of points is isolated if each is the nearest neighbor of the other, and its degree of isolation is the relative distance to the next-nearest point. The frequency with which such pairs occur and the distribution of their degree of isolation are obtained for Poisson processes in ℝv. Similar results are obtained for some related models, incidentally solving a problem proposed by D. P. Shine.