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Water recreation is valuable to people, and its value can be affected by changes in water quality. This paper presents the results of a revealed preference survey to elicit coastal New England, USA, residents’ values for water recreation and water quality. We combined the survey responses with a comprehensive data set of coastal attributes, including in-water and remotely sensed water quality metrics. Using a travel cost model framework, we found water clarity and the bacterial conditions of coastal waters to be practical water quality inputs to economic analysis, available at appropriate scales, and meaningful to people and their behavior. Changes in clarity and bacterial conditions affected trip values, with a $4.5 change for a meter in clarity in Secchi depth and $0.08 for a one-unit bacteria change in colony-forming units per 100 ml. We demonstrate the large potential value of improving water quality through welfare analysis scenarios for Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. The paper discusses lessons for improving the policy relevance and applicability of water quality valuation studies through improved water quality data collection, combined with the application of scalable analysis tools for valuation.
The behaviour of mountain glaciers on decadal time scales is a useful indicator for assessing climate change. Although less monitored and studied than the ice sheet, local glaciers and ice caps along the coast of Greenland are substantial contributors to meltwater runoff and sea level rise. This study analyses the cumulative area, ice mass and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) change that occurred on 4100 glaciers and ice caps in West Greenland from 1985 to approximately 2020, using remotely sensed data and including glaciers smaller than 1 km2 in the calculations. The glaciers involved in the study decreased in area by 1774 ± 229 km2 which corresponds to almost −15%. Their surface elevation decreased on average by 20.6 ± 3.9 m, corresponding to a rate of −0.5 ± 0.1 m w.e. a−1. The ELA shows a median regional rise of 150 m with marked local variability and higher median rise in the northern part of the study area. Strong regional gradients in ELA of individual glaciers are found, both towards the ice sheet and in areas where local orography affects precipitation. The observed high spatial variability of changes suggests that more monitoring on sub-regional level is needed.
Information related to the climate, sowing time, harvest, and crop development is essential for defining appropriate strategies for agricultural activities, which helps both producers and responsible bodies. Paraná, the second largest soybean producer in Brazil, has high climatic variability, which greatly influences planting, harvesting, and crop productivity periods. Therefore, the objective of this study was to regionalize the state of Paraná, considering decennial metrics associated with climate variables and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) during the soybean cycle. Individual and global analyses of these metrics were conducted performed using multivariate techniques. These analyses were carried out in agricultural scenarios with low, medium, and high precipitation, corresponding to harvest years 2011/2012, 2013/2014, and 2015/2016, respectively. The results obtained from the scores of the retained factors and the cluster analysis were the profile of the groups, with Group 1 presenting more favourable climatic and agronomic conditions for the development of soybean crops for the three harvest years. The opposite occurred for Groups 2 (2011/2012 and 2013/2014) and Group 3 (2015/2016). During the soybean reproductive phases (R2 – R5), precipitation values were inadequate, especially for Group 2 (2011/2012 and 2013/2014) with high water deficit, resulting in a drop in soybean productivity. The climatic and agronomic regionalization of Paraná made it possible to identify the regions most suitable for growing soybeans, the effect of climatic conditions on phenological stages, and the variability of soybean productivity in the three harvest years.
Icebergs are part of the glacial mass balance and they interact with the ocean and with sea ice. Optical satellite remote sensing is often used to retrieve the above-waterline area of icebergs. However, varying solar angles introduce an error to the iceberg area retrieval that had not been quantified. Herein, we approximate the iceberg area error for top-of-atmosphere Sentinel-2 near-infrared data at a range of solar zenith angles. First, we calibrate an iceberg threshold at a $56^\circ$ solar zenith angle with reference to higher resolution airborne imagery at Storfjorden, Svalbard. A reflectance threshold of 0.12 yields the lowest relative error of 0.19% ± 15.74% and the lowest interquartile spread. Second, we apply the 0.12 reflectance threshold to Sentinel-2 data at 14 solar zenith angles between $45^\circ$ and $81^\circ$ in the Kangerlussuaq Fjord, south-east Greenland. Here we quantify the error variation with the solar zenith angle for a consistent set of large icebergs. The error variation is then standardized to the error obtained in Svalbard. Up to a solar zenith angle of $65^\circ$, the mean standardized iceberg area error remains between 5.9% and −5.67%. Above $65^\circ$, iceberg areas are underestimated and inconsistent, caused by a segregation into shadows and sun-facing slopes.
The Battle of al-Qadisiyyah (c. AD 637/8) was a crucial victory by the Arab Muslims over the forces of the Sasanian Empire during the early Islamic conquests. Analysis of satellite imagery of south-west Iraq has now revealed the likely location of this important historic battle.
This project documents the current archaeological record of the Qaraçay River Basin in western Azerbaijan. Integrating intensive pedestrian survey, satellite imagery analysis and topographic mapping, the study identified 85 kurgans, six necropolises and nine sites from the Chalcolithic or medieval periods. The authors believe this demonstrates the potential for further archaeological studies in the region.
Precipitation is one of the most relevant weather and climate processes. Its formation rate is sensitive to perturbations such as by the interactions between aerosols, clouds, and precipitation. These interactions constitute one of the biggest uncertainties in determining the radiative forcing of climate change. High-resolution simulations such as the ICOsahedral non-hydrostatic large-eddy model (ICON-LEM) offer valuable insights into these interactions. However, due to exceptionally high computation costs, it can only be employed for a limited period and area. We address this challenge by developing new models powered by emerging machine learning approaches capable of forecasting autoconversion rates—the rate at which small droplets collide and coalesce becoming larger droplets—from satellite observations providing long-term global spatial coverage for more than two decades. In particular, our approach involves two phases: (1) we develop machine learning models which are capable of predicting autoconversion rates by leveraging high-resolution climate model data, (2) we repurpose our best machine learning model to predict autoconversion rates directly from satellite observations. We compare the performance of our machine learning models against simulation data under several different conditions, showing from both visual and statistical inspections that our approaches are able to identify key features of the reference simulation data to a high degree. Additionally, the autoconversion rates obtained from the simulation output and satellite data (predicted) demonstrate statistical concordance. By efficiently predicting this, we advance our comprehension of one of the key processes in precipitation formation, crucial for understanding cloud responses to anthropogenic aerosols and, ultimately, climate change.
The site of Guiengola is an example of one of the settlements built by the Zapotecs during their fourteenth- to fifteenth-century migration to the Southern Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Although Guiengola is well known in the ethnohistorical record as being the place where the Mexica armies were defeated by Zapotec forces during the late fifteenth century, the full extension of the site was previously unknown. Despite evidence of a dense population at the site, it has been mistakenly characterized as a fortress for housing soldiers and troops from the nearby town of Tehuantepec. Here, I present the research of the Guiengola Archeological Project, which conducted a lidar scan and archaeological surveys between 2018 and 2023. In this article, I share a comprehensive map of Guiengola, a Postclassic Mesoamerican city. My analysis identifies a large settlement that covered 360 ha and included a walled system of fortifications, an internal road network, and a hierarchically organized city. The findings of this project expand our understanding of the variations and social divisions in the city's internal urban organization, which in turn, allow us to deepen our comprehension of the transition to the Early Colonial barrio organization of Tehuantepec.
In this study, the U-net with ResNet-34, i.e. a residual neural network with 34 layers, backbone semantic segmentation network is applied to C-band sea-ice SAR imagery over the Baltic Sea. Sentinel-1 Extra Wide Swath mode HH/HV-polarized SAR data acquired during the winter season 2018–2019, and corresponding segments derived from the daily Baltic Sea ice charts were used for training the segmentation algorithm. C-band SAR image mosaics of the winter season 2020–2021 were then used to evaluate the segmentation. The major objective was to study the suitability of semantic segmentation of SAR imagery for automated SAR segmentation and also to find a potential replacement for the outdated iterated conditional modes (ICM) algorithm currently in operational use. The results compared to the daily Baltic Sea ice charts and the operational ICM segmentation and visual interpretation were encouraging from the operational point of view. Open water areas were located very well and the oversegmentation produced by ICM was significantly reduced. The correspondence between the ice chart polygons and the segmentation results was also reasonably good. Based on the results, the studied method is a potential candidate to replace the operational ICM SAR segmentation used in the Copernicus Marine Service automated sea-ice products at Finnish Meteorological Institute.
During the second half of the first millennium BC, hundreds of hillforts dotted the central Italian Apennines. Often interpreted as ‘proto-towns’, the authors present results of investigations at Monte Santa Croce-Cognolo that challenge this idea. Previous studies identified a small area (<1ha) of occupation and suggested that habitation extended across the whole 18ha site. Combining geophysical and pedestrian survey with remotely sensed data, and local ethnographic accounts, the authors detect little evidence for permanent habitation and instead argue for activities connected with animal husbandry. The results challenge urban-centric interpretations by demonstrating the coexistence of monumental but uninhabited hillforts and urban sites—usually seen across the Mediterranean and Europe.
The retrieval of sea ice thickness using L-band passive remote sensing requires robust models for emission from sea ice. In this work, measurements obtained from surface-based radiometers during the MOSAiC expedition are assessed with the Burke, Wilheit and SMRT radiative transfer models. These models encompass distinct methodologies: radiative transfer with/without wave coherence effects, and with/without scattering. Before running these emission models, the sea ice growth is simulated using the Cumulative Freezing Degree Days (CFDD) model to further compute the evolution of the ice structure during each period. Ice coring profiles done near the instruments are used to obtain the initial state of the computation, along with Digital Thermistor Chain (DTC) data to derive the sea ice temperature during the analyzed periods. The results suggest that the coherent approach used in the Wilheit model results in a better agreement with the horizontal polarization of the in situ measured brightness temperature. The Burke and SMRT incoherent models offer a more robust fit for the vertical component. These models are almost equivalent since the scattering considered in SMRT can be safely neglected at this low frequency, but the Burke model misses an important contribution from the snow layer above sea ice. The results also suggest that a more realistic permittivity falls between the spheres and random needles formulations, with potential for refinement, particularly for L-band applications, through future field measurements.
Tidewater glaciers frequently advance and retreat in ways uncoupled from climate forcing. This complicates the task of forecasting the evolution of individual glaciers and the overall Greenland ice sheet, much of which is drained by tidewater glaciers. Past observational research has identified a set of processes collectively known as the tidewater glacier cycle (TGC) to describe tidewater glacier evolution in four stages: the advancing stage, the extended stage, the retreating stage and the retreated stage. Once glacier retreat is initiated, the TGC is thought to depend largely on the glacier's calving rate, which is controlled by fjord geometry. However, there has been little modeling or systematic observational work on the topic. Measuring calving rates directly is challenging and thus we developed an averaged von Mises stress state at the glacier terminus as a calving rate proxy that can be estimated from surface velocities, ice thickness, a terminus position and subglacial topography. We then analyzed 44 tidewater glaciers in Greenland and assessed the current state in the TGC for them. Of the 44 glaciers, we find that fjord geometry is causing instability in ten cases, vs stability in seven, with 11 in rapid retreat and 16 have been historically stable.
In this study an operational sea ice thickness (SIT) estimation algorithm, based on HH-polarized X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, background information from the most recent, typically from the previous day, available daily Baltic Sea ice chart and the operational Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) thermodynamic ice model, was developed and evaluated. The algorithm was designed to complement the C-band SAR SIT algorithm developed earlier at FMI and applied daily as part of the operational Copernicus Marine Service (CMS). The X-band SIT algorithm was developed by utilizing the sea ice thickness measurements made onboard the Finnish and Swedish ice breakers during two winters seasons: 2021–2022 and 2022–2023. The former season measurements were used for defining the algorithm parameters and the later season for evaluation of the algorithm performance. According to the evaluation metrics the X-band algorithm performance is slightly better than that of the operational CMS C-band SAR SIT algorithm, indicating its suitability for operational use in CMS.
Ice shelves regulate the flow of the Antarctic ice sheet toward the ocean and its contribution to sea-level rise. Accurately monitoring the basal and surface melting of ice shelves is therefore essential for predicting the ice sheet's response to climatic warming. In this study, we utilize Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery combined with shipboard measurements of water temperature and salinity to investigate the presence of surficial meltwater plumes along the Antarctic coastline. Our approach reveals a strong correlation between areas of pronounced low radar backscatter extending from ice shelves and significant decreases in water temperature and salinity, suggesting meltwater-enriched ocean waters. We propose that the low radar backscatter signature of meltwater outflows is caused by stable stratification of the upper water column, driven by density contrasts from buoyant, low-salinity meltwater and surface current shear that reduce Bragg scattering waves. The resulting smooth water surfaces were observed adjacent to the surface expression of deep basal channels, documented in a helicopter survey along part of the Bellingshausen Sea ice edge. We present high-temporal resolution satellite radar as a tool for identifying meltwater release from beneath ice shelves, capable of all-weather, day-and-night imaging.
In West Africa, vast areas are being deforested; the remnant forest patches provide a wealth of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation potential, yet they are threatened by human activity. Forest patches <100 ha have not been widely catalogued before; we mapped forest loss of small forest patches outside of protected areas in the Guinean savannah and humid Guineo-Congolian bioclimatic regions of Togo, Benin, Nigeria and Cameroon between 2000 and 2022. Focusing on the dynamics of small patches, without considering the splitting process of larger patches, we quantified changes in their number and area and the rate and trend of forest loss. Small forest patches are widespread, yet their area and number have decreased, while the forest loss rate is increasing. Primary forest patches lost almost half of their area annually – twice as much as secondary forests, and this loss was especially pronounced across small patches (0.5 – 10 ha), suggesting deforestation preferentially occurs in the smallest patches of primary forest. If forest loss continues at the current rate, 14% of the total forest area mapped in this study will have disappeared by 2032, jeopardizing their potential to provide ecosystem services and emphasizing the need for measures to counter their deforestation.
Ruth Glacier is situated in the Central Alaska Range, with the Don Sheldon Amphitheater comprising much of its broad accumulation area, directly adjacent to North America's tallest mountain, Denali. From there it funnels through the ‘Great Gorge,’ flanked by steep valley walls reaching over 1500 m. We combine airborne and ground-based radar measurements of ice thickness with satellite-derived surface velocities to constrain ice flux above and below the gorge, and employ a mass conservation approach to estimate the glacier's thickness within the gorge. We measure ice thickness in the amphitheater to reach 950 m, and estimate centerline thickness in the gorge to range from 610 to 960 m. Our estimates are up to two times greater than those suggested by global models, and allow us to confirm that the Great Gorge rivals Hells Canyon as the deepest gorge in North America. We found that the geometry of the gorge prevents radar measurements of ice thickness there since returns from the subglacial valley walls would precede and potentially occlude nadir bed returns. The same may be true of other unmapped mountain glaciers; however, thickness may be determined using appropriately located flux gates where radar sounding is feasible, combined with mass conservation methods.
Supraglacial lakes on Antarctic ice shelves can have far-reaching implications for ice-sheet stability, highlighting the need to understand their dynamics, controls and role in the ice-sheet mass budget. We combine a detailed satellite-based record of seasonal lake evolution in Dronning Maud Land with a high-resolution simulation from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional to identify drivers of lake variability between 2014 and 2021. Correlations between summer lake extents and climate parameters reveal complex relationships that vary both in space and time. Shortwave radiation contributes positively to the energy budget during summer melt seasons, but summers with enhanced longwave radiation are more prone to surface melting and ponding, which is further enhanced by advected heat from summer precipitation. In contrast, previous winter precipitation has a negative effect on summer lake extents, presumably by increasing albedo and pore space, delaying the accumulation of meltwater. Downslope katabatic or föhn winds promote ponding around the grounding zones of some ice shelves. At a larger scale, we find that summers during periods of negative southern annular mode are associated with increased ponding in Dronning Maud Land. The high variability in seasonal lake extents indicates that these ice shelves are highly sensitive to future warming or intensified extreme events.
We estimate sea-ice type specific incidence angle (IA) dependencies for dual polarized (HH/HV) L and C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) for the winter, melt onset and advanced melt seasons for level and deformed ice, using time-series of Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2) and Sentinel-1 imagery off the north-east coast of Greenland. The IA dependencies are used to radiometrically correct the L and C-band backscatter time-series, which enables analysis of their seasonal evolution. From this, we observe that the L-band backscatter intensity increases for both ice types at the transition from winter to melt onset. We use these results to estimate ice type separability and to train an IA aware Bayesian classifier at both frequencies. These results show that while both frequencies are capable of distinguishing level and deformed ice during the winter, only L-band SAR can reliably make this separation during the melt onset season. During the advanced melt season, the overall classification accuracies are similarly low for L and C-band. This study demonstrates the potential of L-band SAR for sea-ice mapping, which is highly relevant in the light of several upcoming L-band SAR missions.
Understanding sea-ice dynamics at the floe scale is crucial to comprehend polar climate systems. While continuum models are commonly used to simulate large-scale sea-ice dynamics, they have limitations in accurately representing sea-ice behaviour at small scales. DEMs, on the other hand, are well-suited for modelling the behaviour of individual ice floes but face limitations due to computational constraints. To address the limitations of both approaches while combining their strengths, we explored the feasibility of using a DEM within a continuum model, where the latter provides boundary conditions for a rectangular high-resolution DEM domain. This paper presents a feasibility study where a discrete model of a 100 × 100 km2 icefield was created using high-resolution optical satellite imagery. Sea-ice dynamics were simulated in the DEM considering environmental forces and integrating large-scale ice-drift velocities as boundary conditions. Model predictions were compared with satellite observations for ice drift and deformation parameters. This numerical approach showed potential for offering accurate, high-resolution predictions of sea ice, particularly in coastal areas and near islands, and may find applications in ice navigation and climate studies. However, further development of the DEM, along with upgrades to the coupled ocean models providing data for the ice component, may be necessary. Additionally, challenges remain to develop a two-way coupling between the DEM and a continuum model, which may be needed to improve the accuracy of large-scale simulations.
In light of the recent increase in polar shipping and potential future increase with continued climate change reliable routing in ice-covered waters becomes increasingly important for environmental, economic and safety concerns. Dependable route suggestions have the potential to reduce travel times through polar waters significantly. We apply the Anytime Repairing A* pathfinding algorithm to classified Copernicus Sentinel 1 radar images to estimate how much travel times can be reduced. For multiple example scenarios, it is quantified how much the travel time is reduced if a ship follows these suggestions compared to navigating without any ice information available exterior to the visual range (VR). It was found that having ice information available is most beneficial in complex ice situations, where it can reduce travel time by up to 34% for a VR of 2 km.