A generalized semi-Markov process with speeds describes the fluctuation, in time, of the state of a certain general system involving, at any given time, one or more living components, whose residual lifetimes are being reduced at state-dependent speeds. Conditions are given for the stationary state distribution, when it exists, to depend only on the means of some of the lifetime distributions, not their exact shapes. This generalizes results of König and Jansen, particularly to the infinite-state case.

We study optimal control problems for (time-)delayed stochastic differential equations with jumps. We establish sufficient and necessary stochastic maximum principles for an optimal control of such systems. The associated adjoint processes are shown to satisfy a (time-)advanced backward stochastic differential equation (ABSDE). Several results on existence and uniqueness of such ABSDEs are shown. The results are illustrated by an application to optimal consumption from a cash flow with delay.

Consider an open multiclass Jacksonian network in equilibrium and a path such that a customer travelling along it cannot be overtaken directly by a subsequent arrival or by the effects of subsequent arrivals. Then the sojourn times of this customer in the nodes constituting the path are all mutually independent and so the total sojourn time is easily calculated. Two examples are given to suggest that the non-overtaking condition may be necessary to ensure independence when there is a single customer class.

We consider stochastic orders of the following type. Let be a class of functions and let P and Q be probability measures. Then define , if ∫ ⨍ d P ≦ ∫ ⨍ d Q for all f in . Marshall (1991) posed the problem of characterizing the maximal cone of functions generating such an ordering. We solve this problem by using methods from functional analysis. Another purpose of this paper is to derive properties of such integral stochastic orders from conditions satisfied by the generating class of functions. The results are illustrated by several examples. Moreover, we show that the likelihood ratio order is closed with respect to weak convergence, though it is not generated by integrals.

A diffusion process X(·) in the infinite-dimensional ordered simplex is characterized in terms of the generator defined on an appropriate domain. It is shown that X(·) is the limit in distribution of several sequences of discrete stochastic models of the infinitely-many-neutral-alleles type. It is further shown that X(·) has a unique stationary distribution and is reversible and ergodic. Kingman's limit theorem for the descending order statistics of the symmetric Dirichlet distribution is obtained as a corollary.

Consider a pair of single server queues arranged in series. (This is the simplest example of a queuing network.) In an earlier paper [2], a limit theorem was proved to justify a heavy traffic approximation for the (two-dimensional) equilibrium waiting-time distribution. Specifically the waiting-time distribution was shown to be approximated by the limit distribution F of a certain vector stochastic process Z. The process Z was defined as an explicit, but relatively complicated, transformation of vector Brownian motion, and the general problem of determining F was left unsolved.

It is shown in this paper that Z is a diffusion process (continuous strong Markov process) whose state space S is the non-negative quadrant. On the interior of S, the process behaves as an ordinary vector Brownian motion, and it reflects instantaneously at each boundary surface (axis). At one axis, the reflection is normal, but at the other axis it has a tangential component as well. The generator of Z is calculated.

It is shown that the limit distribution F is the solution of a first-passage problem for a certain dual diffusion process Z∗. The generator of Z∗ is calculated, and the analytical theory of Markov processes is used to derive a partial differential equation (with boundary conditions) for the density f of F. Necessary and sufficient conditions are found for f to be separable (for the limit distribution to have independent components). This extends slightly the class of explicit solutions found previously in [2]. Another special case is solved explicitly, showing that the density is not in general separable.

We consider the problem of scheduling the transmissions of multiple data users (flows) sharing the same wireless channel (server). The unique feature of this problem is the fact that the capacity (service rate) of the channel varies randomly with time and asynchronously for different users. We study a scheduling policy called the exponential scheduling rule, which was introduced in an earlier paper. Given a system with N users, and any set of positive numbers {an}, n = 1, 2,…, N, we show that in a heavy-traffic limit, under a nonrestrictive ‘complete resource pooling’ condition, this algorithm has the property that, for each time t, it (asymptotically) minimizes maxnanq̃n(t), where q̃n(t) is the queue length of user n in the heavy-traffic regime.

We analyze a class of stochastic and dynamic vehicle routing problems in which demands arrive randomly over time and the objective is minimizing waiting time. In our previous work ([6], [7]), we analyzed this problem for the case of uniformly distributed demand locations and Poisson arrivals. In this paper, using quite different techniques, we are able to extend our results to the more realistic case where demand locations have an arbitrary continuous distribution and arrivals follow only a general renewal process. Further, we improve significantly the best known lower bounds for this class of problems and construct policies that are provably within a small constant factor relative to the optimal solution. We show that the leading behavior of the optimal system time has a particularly simple form that offers important structural insight into the behavior of the system. Moreover, by distinguishing two classes of policies our analysis shows an interesting dependence of the system performance on the demand distribution.

The age structure of a large, unisexual, closed population is described here by a vector of the proportions in each age class. Non-negative matrices of age-specific birth and death rates, called Leslie matrices, map the age structure at one point in discrete time into the age structure at the next. If the sequence of Leslie matrices applied to a population is a sample path of an ergodic Markov chain, then: (i) the joint process consisting of the age structure vector and the Leslie matrix which produced that age structure is a Markov chain with explicit transition function; (ii) the joint distribution of age structure and Leslie matrix becomes independent of initial age structure and of the initial distribution of the Leslie matrix after a long time; (iii) when the Markov chain governing the Leslie matrix is homogeneous, the joint distribution in (ii) approaches a limit which may be easily calculated as the solution of a renewal equation. A numerical example will be given in Cohen (1977).

This is the first part of a three part work, the common setting being Ed, Euclidean space of d dimensions. Many random physical phenomena, often in the form of structures, admit models which are assemblages of random s-flats in Ed. Indeed, taking s = 0, any n-sample from a d-dimensional distribution may of course be so regarded! For static phenomena generally 0 ≦ s < d ≦ 3, while 4 is to be substituted for 3 if time variation is allowed. By postulating a high degree of stochastic independence and uniformity, a variety of “simple” models is defined. However, their investigation poses problems in geometrical probability of a wide range of difficulty; the solutions of many of which are still far from complete.

The problem of estimating the transfer function of a linear system, together with the spectral density of an additive disturbance, is considered. The set of models used consists of linear rational transfer functions and the spectral densities are estimated from a finite-order autoregressive disturbance description. The true system and disturbance spectrum are, however, not necessarily of finite order. We investigate the properties of the estimates obtained as the number of observations tends to ∞ at the same time as the model order employed tends to ∞. It is shown that the estimates are strongly consistent and asymptotically normal, and an expression for the asymptotic variances is also given. The variance of the transfer function estimate at a certain frequency is related to the signal/noise ratio at that frequency and the model orders used, as well as the number of observations. The variance of the noise spectral estimate relates in a similar way to the squared value of the true spectrum.

This paper contains a review of the results of the martingale approach to point processes and its applications to the theory of dynamical systems (in the engineering sense), mainly estimation problems.

Some of the topics reviewed are: stochastic intensity, absolutely continuous changes of measure, martingale representations, changes of times, filtering, queues, etc.

Let {Ai : i ≥ 1} be a sequence of non-negative random variables and let M be the class of all probability measures on [0,∞]. Define a transformation T on M by letting Tμ be the distribution of ∑i=1∞AiZi, where the Zi are independent random variables with distribution μ, which are also independent of {Ai}. Under first moment assumptions imposed on {Ai}, we determine exactly when T has a non-trivial fixed point (of finite or infinite mean) and we prove that all fixed points have regular variation properties; under moment assumptions of order 1 + ε, ε > 0, we find all the fixed points and we prove that all non-trivial fixed points have stable-like tails. Convergence theorems are given to ensure that each non-trivial fixed point can be obtained as a limit of iterations (by T) with an appropriate initial distribution; convergence to the trivial fixed points δ0 and δ∞ is also examined, and a result like the Kesten-Stigum theorem is established in the case where the initial distribution has the same tails as a stable law. The problem of convergence with an arbitrary initial distribution is also considered when there is no non-trivial fixed point. Our investigation has applications in the study of: (a) branching processes; (b) invariant measures of some infinite particle systems; (c) the model for turbulence of Yaglom and Mandelbrot; (d) flows in networks and Hausdorff measures in random constructions; and (e) the sorting algorithm Quicksort. In particular, it turns out that the basic functional equation in the branching random walk always has a non-trivial solution.

We establish new multidimensional martingales for Markov additive processes and certain modifications of such processes (e.g., such processes with reflecting barriers). These results generalize corresponding one-dimensional martingale results for Lévy processes. This martingale is then applied to various storage processes, queues and Brownian motion models.

The Reed–Frost model for the spread of an infection is considered and limit theorems for the total size, T, of the epidemic are proved in the limit when n, the initial number of healthy persons, is large and the probability of an encounter between a healthy and an infected person per time unit, p, is λ/n. It is shown that there is a critical threshold λ = 1 in the following sense, when the initial number of infected persons, m, is finite: If λ ≦ 1, T remains finite and has a limit distribution which can be described. If λ > 1 this is still true with a probability σm < 1, and with probability 1 – σmT is close to n(1 – σ) and has an approximately Gaussian distribution around this value. When m → ∞ also, only the Gaussian part of the limit distribution is obtained. A randomized version of the Reed–Frost model is also considered, and this allows the same result to be proved for the Kermack–McKendrick model. It is also shown that the limit theorem can be used to study the number of connected components in a random graph, which can be considered as a crude description of a polymerization process. In this case polymerization takes place when λ > 1 and not when λ ≦ 1.

In this paper some theorems of Dunsmuir and Hannan [2] are corrected. The topological structure of spaces of (likelihood) equivalence classes of arma structures is more closely investigated and its relation to the statistical problem is elucidated. The formulation is also made more general.

This paper introduces a benchmark approach for the modelling of continuous, complete financial markets, when an equivalent risk-neutral measure does not exist. This approach is based on the unique characterization of a benchmark portfolio, the growth optimal portfolio, which is obtained via a generalization of the mutual fund theorem. The discounted growth optimal portfolio with minimum variance drift is shown to follow a Bessel process of dimension four. Some form of arbitrage can be explicitly modelled by arbitrage amounts. Fair contingent claim prices are derived as conditional expectations under the real world probability measure. The Heath-Jarrow-Morton forward rate equation remains valid despite the absence of an equivalent risk neutral measure.

We consider an infinite sequence of customers of types and an infinite sequence of servers of types where a server of type j can serve a subset of customer types C(j) and where a customer of type i can be served by a subset of server types S(i). We assume that the types of customers and servers in the infinite sequences are random, independent, and identically distributed, and that customers and servers are matched according to their order in the sequence, on a first-come–first-served (FCFS) basis. We investigate this process of infinite bipartite matching. In particular, we are interested in the rate ri,j that customers of type i are assigned to servers of type j. We present a countable state Markov chain to describe this process, and for some previously unsolved instances, we prove ergodicity and existence of limiting rates, and calculate ri,j.

For the haploid genetic model of Moran, the joint distribution of the numbers of distinct ancestors of a collection of nested subsamples is derived. These results are shown to apply to the diffusion approximations of a wide variety of other genetic models, including the Wright–Fisher process. The results allow us to relate the ancestries of populations sampled at different times. Analogous results for a line-of-descent process that incorporates the effect of mutation are given. Some results about the ages of alleles in an infinite-alleles model are described.

Using some well-known and some recently proved asymptotic properties of regenerative processes, we present a new proof in a general regenerative setting of the equivalence of the limiting distributions of a stochastic process at an arbitrary point in time and at the time of an event from an associated Poisson process. From the same asymptotic properties, several conservation equations are derived that hold for a wide class of GI/G/1 priority queues. Finally, focussing our attention on the alternating-priority queue with Poisson arrivals, we use both types of result to give a new, simple derivation of the expected steady-state delay in the queue in each class.