In this paper we propose a time-varying vector error correction model in which the cointegrating relationship varies smoothly over time. The Johansen setup is a special case of our model. A likelihood ratio test for time-invariant cointegration is defined and its asymptotic chi-square distribution is derived. We apply our test to the purchasing power parity hypothesis of international prices and nominal exchange rates, and we find evidence of time-varying cointegration.

Let (X1, Y1), …, (Xn, Yn) be independent and identically distributed random variables and let l(x) be the unknown p-quantile regression curve of Y conditional on X. A quantile smoother ln(x) is a localized, nonlinear estimator of l(x). The strong uniform consistency rate is established under general conditions. In many applications it is necessary to know the stochastic fluctuation of the process {ln(x) – l(x)}. Using strong approximations of the empirical process and extreme value theory, we consider the asymptotic maximal deviation sup0≤x≤1 |ln(x) − l(x)|. The derived result helps in the construction of a uniform confidence band for the quantile curve l(x). This confidence band can be applied as a econometric model check. An economic application considers the relation between age and earnings in the labor market by means of parametric model specification tests, which presents a new framework to describe trends in the entire wage distribution in a parsimonious way.

This paper considers a nonparametric functionalcoefficient model with an unknown link function. Themodel gives flexibility to the standardinteraction-variable model by allowing an arbitraryfunctional form of heterogeneous marginal effects.A local rank estimation procedureis proposed for the functional coefficients alongwith its asymptotic property.

We extend the framework of the fully modified, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator introduced by Phillips and Hansen (1990) to the case of seasonally cointegrated processes at a given frequency. First we extend a weak convergence result of sample covariance matrices (Phillips, 1988) to the case of seasonal unit roots. Using a complex number framework, we then show that we can take into account the constraints that exist in a situation of seasonal cointegration as illustrated in Gregoir (1999a) and derive estimates of the cointegration vectors that allow for asymptotic normal inference. This allows us to propose a test whose null hypothesis is the existence of seasonal cointegration. A Monte Carlo exercise investigates the finite sample properties of this test procedure. The paper closes with the analysis of situations in which there exist more than one frequency at which seasonal cointegration can be observed.

Most work in the area of nonlinear econometric modeling is based on a single equation and assumes exogeneity of the explanatory variables. Recently, work by Caner and Hansen (2004) and Psaradakis, Sola, and Spagnolo (2005) has considered the possibility of estimating nonlinear models by methods that take into account endogeneity but provide no tests for exogeneity. This paper examines the problem of testing for exogeneity in nonlinear threshold models. We suggest new Hausman-type tests and discuss the use of the bootstrap to improve the properties of asymptotic tests. The theoretical properties of the tests are discussed and an extensive Monte Carlo study is undertaken.

We extend the representation theory of the autoregressive model in the fractional lag operator of Johansen (2008, Econometric Theory 24, 651–676). A recursive algorithm for the characterization of cofractional relations and the corresponding adjustment coefficients is given, and it is shown under which condition the solution of the model is fractional of order d and displays cofractional relations of order d − b and polynomial cofractional relations of order d − 2b,…, d − cb ≥ 0 for integer c; the cofractional relations and the corresponding moving average representation are characterized in terms of the autoregressive coefficients by the same algorithm. For c = 1 and c = 2 we find the results of Johansen (2008).

Recently, Shimotsu and Phillips (2005, Annalsof Statistics 33, 1890–1933) developed anew semiparametric estimator, the exact localWhittle (ELW) estimator, of the memory parameter(d) in fractionally integratedprocesses. The ELW estimator has been shown to beconsistent, and it has the same asymptoticdistribution for all values of d,if the optimization covers an interval of width lessthan 9/2 and the mean of the process is known. Withthe intent to provide a semiparametric estimatorsuitable for economic data, we extend the ELWestimator so that it accommodates an unknown meanand a polynomial time trend. We show that thetwo-step ELW estimator, which is based on a modifiedELW objective function using a tapered local Whittleestimator in the first stage, has an asymptoticdistribution for (or when the datahave a polynomial trend). Our simulation studyillustrates that the two-step ELW estimator inheritsthe desirable properties of the ELW estimator.

We study a nonlinear panel data model in which thefixed effects are assumed to have finite support.The fixed effects estimator is known to have theincidental parameters problem. We contribute to theliterature by making a qualitative observation thatthe incidental parameters problem in this model maynot be not as severe as in the conventional case.Because fixed effects have finite support, theprobability of correctly identifying the fixedeffect converges to one even when the crosssectional dimension grows as fast as someexponential function of the time dimension. As aconsequence, the finite sample bias of the fixedeffects estimator is expected to be small.

A vector autoregressive model allowing for unit rootsas well as an explosive characteristic root isdeveloped. The Granger-Johansen representation showsthat this results in processes with two commonfeatures: a random walk and an explosively growingprocess. Cointegrating and coexplosive vectors canbe found that eliminate these common factors. Thelikelihood ratio test for a simple hypothesis on thecoexplosive vectors is analyzed. The method isillustrated using data from the extreme Yugoslavianhyperinflation of the 1990s.

In this paper we introduce a new method ofprojection-type inference and describe it in thecontext of two stage least squares–basedsplit-sample inference on subsets of structuralcoefficients in a linear instrumental variablesregression model. The use of the new method not onlyguards against the uncontrolled overrejection of thetrue value of the parameters of interest but alsoreduces the conservativeness of the usual method ofprojection proposed by Dufour and his coauthors(Dufour, 1997, Econometrica 65,1365–1388; Dufour and Jasiak, 2001,International Economic Review 41,815–843; Dufour and Taamouti, 2005, discussionpaper; Dufour and Taamouti, 2005,Econometrica 73, 1351–1365;Dufour and Taamouti, 2007, Journal ofEconometrics 139, 133–153).

This paper considers the extension of the classical minimum distance approach for the pooling of estimates with various rates of convergence. Under a setting where relatively high rates of convergence can be attained, the minimum distance estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The constrained estimates can be efficient relative to the unconstrained ones. The minimized distance function is shown to be asymptotically χ2-distributed, and can be used as a goodness-of-fit test for the constraints. As the extension is motivated by some social interactions models, which are of interest in their own right, we discuss this approach for the estimation and testing of a social interactions model.

We consider nonparametric estimation of spectral densities of stationary processes, a fundamental problem in spectral analysis of time series. Under natural and easily verifiable conditions, we obtain consistency and asymptotic normality of spectral density estimates. Asymptotic distribution of maximum deviations of the spectral density estimates is also derived. The latter result sheds new light on the classical problem of tests of white noises.

We use local polynomial fitting to estimate the nonparametric M-regression function for strongly mixing stationary processes {(Yi, Xi)}. We establish a strong uniform consistency rate for the Bahadur representation of estimators of the regression function and its derivatives. These results are fundamental for statistical inference and for applications that involve plugging such estimators into other functionals where some control over higher order terms is required. We apply our results to the estimation of an additive M-regression model.

The local linear method is popular in estimatingnonparametric continuous-time diffusion models, butit may produce negative results for the diffusion(or volatility) functions and thus lead toinsensible inference. We demonstrate this using U.S.interest rate data. We propose a new functionalestimation method of the diffusion coefficient basedon reweighting the conventional Nadaraya–Watsonestimator. It preserves the appealing biasproperties of the local linear estimator and isguaranteed to be nonnegative in finite samples. Alimit theory is developed under mild requirements(recurrence) of the data generating mechanismwithout assuming stationarity or ergodicity.

Asymptotic likelihood analysis of cointegration in I (2) models (see Johansen, 1997, 2006; Boswijk, 2000; Paruolo, 2000) has shown that inference on most parameters is mixed normal, implying hypothesis test statistics with an asymptotic χ2 null distribution. The asymptotic distribution of the multicointegration parameter estimator so far has been characterized by a Brownian motion functional, which has been conjectured to have a mixed normal distribution, based on simulations. The present note proves this conjecture.

A well known result is that many of the tests used ineconometrics, such as the Rao score (RS) test, maynot be robust to misspecified alternatives, that is,when the alternative model does not correspond tothe underlying data generating process. Under thisscenario, these tests spuriously reject the nullhypothesis too often. We generalize this result togeneralized method of moments–based (GMM-based)tests. We also extend the method proposed in Beraand Yoon (1993, Econometric Theory9, 649–658) for constructing RS tests that arerobust to local misspecification to GMM-based tests.Finally, a further generalization for generalestimating and testing functions is developed. Thisframework encompasses both likelihood and GMM-basedresults.

This note is concerned with the spectral properties of matrices associated with linear smoothers. We derive analytical results on the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of smoothing matrices by interpreting the latter as perturbations of matrices belonging to algebras with known spectral properties, such as the circulant and the generalized tau. These results are used to characterize the properties of a smoother in terms of an approximate eigen-decomposition of the associated smoothing matrix.

We derive a closed-form expression for the asymptoticdistribution of the LIML estimator for thecoefficients of both endogenous and exogenousvariables in a partially identified linearstructural equation. We extend previous results ofPhillips (1989) and Choi and Phillips (1992), wherethe focus was on IV estimators. We show that partialfailure of identification affects the LIML in thatits moments do not exist even asymptotically.

Many regression models have two dimensions, say time (t = 1,…,T) and households (i = 1,…,N), as in panel data, error components, or spatial econometrics. In estimating such models we need to specify the structure of the error variance matrix Ω, which is of dimension T N × T N. If T N is large, then direct computation of the determinant and inverse of Ω is not practical. In this note we define structures of Ω that allow the computation of its determinant and inverse, only using matrices of orders T and N, and at the same time allowing for heteroskedasticity, for household- or station-specific autocorrelation, and for time-specific spatial correlation.

This paper establishes asymptotic properties ofquasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatialdynamic panel data with both time and individualfixed effects when the number of individualsn and the number of time periodsT can be large. We propose a datatransformation approach to eliminate the timeeffects. When n / T → 0, theestimators are consistent andasymptotically centered normal; whenn is asymptotically proportionalto T, they are consistent andasymptotically normal, but the limit distribution isnot centered around 0; when n / T →∞, the estimators are consistent with rateT and have a degenerate limitdistribution. We also propose a bias correction forour estimators. When n1/3 /T → 0, the correction willasymptotically eliminate the bias and yield acentered confidence interval. The estimates from thetransformation approach can be consistent whenn is a fixed finite number.