Truncated models are indirect methods to estimate the size of a hidden population which, in contrast to the capture–recapture method, can be used on a single information source. We estimated the coverage of a tuberculosis screening programme among illicit drug users and homeless persons with a mobile digital X-ray unit between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2005 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, using truncated models. The screening programme reached about two-third of the estimated target population at least once annually. The intended coverage (at least two chest X-rays per person per year) was about 23%. We conclude that simple truncated models can be used relatively easily on available single-source routine data to estimate the size of a population of illicit drug users and homeless persons. We assumed that the most likely overall bias in this study would be overestimation and therefore the coverage of the targeted mobile tuberculosis screening programme would be higher.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of morbidity in children worldwide, although data from equatorial regions are limited. We analysed climatic, spatial, and temporal data for children presenting to hospitals in Lombok island, Indonesia with clinical pneumonia. During the study period, 2878 children presented and 741 RSV cases were identified. In multivariate analysis with an 8-day lag, occurrence of rain was associated with 64% higher incidence of RSV disease [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1·64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·13–2·38]. A 1% rise in mean relative humidity and 1°C increase in mean air temperature was associated with a 6% (IRR 1·06, 95% CI 1·03–1·10) and 44% (IRR 1·44, 95% CI 1·24–1·66) increase in RSV cases, respectively. Four statistically significant local clusters of RSV pneumonia were identified within the annual island-wide epidemics. This study demonstrates statistical association of monsoon-associated weather in equatorial Indonesia with RSV. Moreover, within the island-wide epidemics, localized RSV outbreaks suggest local factors influence RSV disease.

The infectivity of pathogenic microorganisms is a key factor in the transmission of an infectious disease in a susceptible population. Microbial infectivity is generally estimated from dose–response studies in human volunteers. This can only be done with mildly pathogenic organisms. Here a hierarchical Beta-Poisson dose–response model is developed utilizing data from human outbreaks. On the lowest level each outbreak is modelled separately and these are then combined at a second level to produce a group dose–response relation. The distribution of foodborne pathogens often shows strong heterogeneity and this is incorporated by introducing an additional parameter to the dose–response model, accounting for the degree of overdispersion relative to Poisson distribution. It was found that heterogeneity considerably influences the shape of the dose–response relationship and increases uncertainty in predicted risk. This uncertainty is greater than previously reported surrogate and outbreak models using a single level of analysis. Monte Carlo parameter samples (α, β of the Beta-Poisson model) can be readily incorporated in risk assessment models built using tools such as S-plus and @ Risk.

National studies determining the burden of gastroenteritis have defined gastroenteritis by its clinical picture, using symptoms to classify cases and non-cases. The use of different case definitions has complicated inter-country comparisons. We selected four case definitions from the literature, applied these to population data from Australia, Canada, Ireland, Malta and the United States, and evaluated how the epidemiology of illness varied. Based on the results, we developed a standard case definition. The choice of case definition impacted on the observed incidence of gastroenteritis, with a 1·5–2·1 times difference between definitions in a given country. The proportion of cases with bloody diarrhoea, fever, and the proportion who sought medical care and submitted a stool sample also varied. The mean age of cases varied by <5 years under the four definitions. To ensure comparability of results between studies, we recommend a standard symptom-based case definition, and minimum set of results to be reported.

A cross-sectional field study was performed to evaluate infection in dogs and cats living on farms with Mycobacterium bovis-infected cattle. The purpose was to determine pet infection status and assess their risk to farm families and/or tuberculosis-free livestock. Data and specimens were collected from 18 cats and five dogs from nine participating farms. ELISA testing for M. bovis and M. avium was conducted. Fifty-one biological samples were cultured; all were negative for M. bovis, although other Mycobacterium species were recovered. No radiographic, serological or skin test evidence of mycobacterial infection was found. These negative results may be due to the low level of M. bovis infection in the cattle and the limited duration of exposure of pets to infected cattle residing on the same farm. No evidence was found to indicate that pets residing on M. bovis-infected Michigan cattle farms pose a risk to humans or M. bovis-free livestock; however, precautionary advice for farm owners was provided.

Newly developed interferon-gamma release assays have become commercially available to detect tuberculosis (TB) infection in adults. However, little is known about their performance in children. We compared test results between the QuantiFERON-TB® Gold test (QFT) and tuberculin skin test (TST) in young children living with pulmonary TB patients in Cambodia. Of 195 children tested with both QFT and TST, the TST-positive rate of 24% was significantly higher than the QFT-positive rate of 17%. The agreement between the test results was considerable (κ-coefficient 0·63). Positive rates increased from 6% to 32% for QFT and from 15% to 43% for TST, according to the sputum smear grades of the index cases. The presence of Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) scars did not significantly affect the results of TST or QFT in a logistic regression analysis. In conclusion, QFT can be a substitute for TST in detecting latent TB infection in childhood contacts aged ⩽5 years, especially in those who may have a false-positive TST due to BCG vaccination or non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection.

Previous modelling studies have estimated that between 1% and 10% of human salmonella infections are attributable to pig meat consumption. In response to this food safety threat the British pig industry have initiated a salmonella monitoring programme. It is anticipated that this programme will contribute to achieving a UK Food Standards Agency target for reducing salmonella levels in pigs at slaughter by 50% within 5 years. In order to better inform the monitoring programme, we have developed a stochastic transmission model for salmonella in a specialist grower-finisher pig herd, where data from a Danish longitudinal study have been used to estimate some of the key model parameters. The model estimates that about 17% of slaughter-age pigs will be infected with salmonella, and that of these infected pigs about 4% will be excreting the organism. In addition, the model shows that the most effective control strategies will be those that reduce between-pen transmission.

Lack of access to safe water and sanitation contributes to diarrhoea moribidity and mortality in developing countries. We evaluated the impact of household water treatment, latrines, shallow wells, and rainwater harvesting on diarrhoea incidence in rural Kenyan children. We compared diarrhoea rates in 960 children aged <5 years in 556 households in 12 randomly selected intervention villages and six randomly selected comparison villages during weekly home visits over an 8-week period. On multivariate analysis, chlorinating stored water [relative risk (RR) 0·44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·28–0·69], latrine presence (RR 0·71, 95% CI 0·54–0·92), rainwater use (RR 0·70, 95% CI 0·52–0·95), and living in an intervention village (RR 0·31, 95% CI 0·23–0·41), were independently associated with lower diarrhoea risk. Diarrhoea risk was higher among shallow well users (RR 1·78, 95% CI 1·12–2·83). Chlorinating stored water, latrines, and rainwater use all decreased diarrhoea risk; combined interventions may have increased health impact.

In Belgium, non-typhoidal salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis are the two most frequently reported foodborne illnesses. During 2005, a 71% decrease of Salmonella Enteritidis infections compared with the average annual number cases in the period 2000–2004 was recorded by the Belgian National Reference Centre for Salmonella and Shigella. After the peak of 1999, the total number of salmonellosis cases decreased gradually, with the exception of 2003 when an increase was again recorded due to the rise of isolates belonging to the serotype Enteritidis. PT4, the predominant phage type of serotype Enteriditis over recent years (except in 2003), became the second most prevalent phage type in 2005 after PT21. We present in this paper the epidemiology (incidence and trends) of human salmonellosis in Belgium and assess the role of the vaccination programme in layer flocks on the decline of the incidence of human salmonellosis and foodborne outbreaks due to S. Enteritidis.

Rotavirus infections are the main cause of gastroenteritis in infants and children and it is expected that by the age of 5 years, nearly every child will have experienced at least one episode of rotavirus gastroenteritis. While severe cases are hospitalized, milder disease is either treated at home or by the GP, and as such the true prevalence of rotavirus infection in the community, and the burden of disease, is unknown. This paper reports the results of a cost-of-illness study which was conducted alongside a structured community surveillance study. Forty-eight percent of our sample was found to have rotavirus acute gastroenteritis; and the average total cost of a child presenting with rotavirus gastroenteritis ranged between £59 and £143 per episode, depending on the perspective. Given the prevalence and severity of the disease, the estimated burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis to society is £11.5 million per year.

Rapidly growing mycobacteria (RGM) are environmental organisms that have emerged as significant human pathogens. RGM infections show remarkable geographic variations. In this study, based on data from Houston, Texas, RGM were isolated from clinical cultures year-round, although peaks in the summer and autumn correlating with the seasonal variation of temperature and rainfall also were noted. These results may offer some explanation for the summer occurrence of RGM outbreaks at diverse locations.

We report the first population-based case-control study on acute hepatitis B in a very low-incidence country. A case was a Netherlands resident, notified between May 1999 and July 2000 with symptoms and serology compatible with acute hepatitis B. Population controls were randomly selected, with oversampling from men and persons aged 20–39 years. Risk factors were studied using logistical regression, distinguishing confounders and mediators through hierarchical analysis. Participants were 120 cases and 3948 controls. The risk of acute hepatitis B was increased in men who have sex with men, with reporting to have had more than two partners in the past 6 months the only significant risk. In children, adult females and heterosexual males, having parents born in a hepatitis B endemic country was a significant risk. For adult females and heterosexual males, this was largely explained by having a foreign partner. For children this was partly explained by parenteral exposures abroad.

A prospective study of norovirus outbreaks in Ireland was carried out over a 1-year period from 1 October 2004 to 30 September 2005. Epidemiological and molecular data on norovirus outbreaks in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI) were collected and combined in real time in a common database. Most reported outbreaks occurred in hospitals and residential institutions and person-to-person spread was the predominant mode of transmission. The predominant circulating norovirus strain was the GII.4-2004 strain with a small number of outbreaks due to GII.2. This study represents the first time that enhanced epidemiological and virological data on norovirus outbreaks in Ireland have been described. The link established between the epidemiological and virological institutions during the course of this study has been continued and the data is being used as a source of data for the Foodborne Viruses in Europe Network (DIVINE-NET).

We identified an increase in the number of cases of Salmonella Typhimurium phage type 197 in New South Wales in February 2005. Cases were predominantly of Lebanese descent. To identify risk factors for illness, we conducted an unmatched case-control study including 12 cases and 21 controls. Eight of 12 cases (67%) and no controls reported eating lambs' liver (OR incalculable, P<0·05), and seven of nine cases (78%) and one of 21 controls (5%) reported eating fresh fish (OR 70·0, P<0·05). Among participants who did not eat liver, there was a strong association between eating fish and illness (OR 60·0, P<0·05). The fish was from divergent sources. Five cases had bought the liver from two different butcher's shops, which obtained the lambs' liver from a single abattoir. Consumption of liver is a risk for salmonellosis. Traditional dishes may place some ethnic groups at increased risk of foodborne disease.

Contacts of leprosy patients have a higher risk of developing clinical leprosy. Being a contact is defined socially, but with the introduction of geographical information systems (GIS) in infectious disease epidemiology, it is necessary to relate spatial distance to social distance. We measured the distances between patients and their socially defined contacts in northwest Bangladesh. Contact categories differ in mean distance to the index patients. Sixty-seven per cent of the high-risk contacts lived within 10 metres (m), while all low-risk contacts lived >10 m from the index patient. Classification based on intervals of spatial distance creates categories that contain contacts of different socially defined categories, illustrated by a category of people living between 10 m and 20 m consisting of 47% of high-risk contacts and 52% low-risk contacts. Classification of contacts based on the spatial distance, as performed with GIS techniques, produces other groups than with social definitions.

Mycobacteria from lymph node biopsies of patients with cervical lymphadenitis reporting for tuberculosis treatment in Matany and Moroto Hospitals in the transhumant areas of Karamoja, Uganda were isolated and characterized. The AccuProbe® culture identification kits for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC), M. avium complex (MAC) and M. avium were used to identify the isolates. Spoligotyping, IS901 PCR and IS1311 and IS1245 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) were used to characterize the isolates. Of the 43 biopsies, ten M. avium, seven M. tuberculosis, three M. bovis, and two M. intracellulare were isolated. Two isolates could not be identified with AccuProbe® and from 19 samples no mycobacteria could be isolated. Three isolates with the Beijing spoligotype were identified from the seven M. tuberculosis isolates. The spoligopatterns of the M. bovis isolates had previously been detected in cattle in Uganda. Isolation of members of the MAC group reflects the complex interaction between the transhumant communities, water sources and their cattle. None of the M. avium isolates harboured IS901, and all showed several bands on IS1311 and IS1245 RFLP, in accordance with M. avium subsp. hominissuis. Composite dendrograms of IS1311 and IS1245 RFLP showed that the isolates were similar and identical patterns were found. The isolation of M. bovis confirms the human infection with zoonotic mycobacteria in areas where consumption of raw milk and meat is routine. Isolation of environmental mycobacteria also confirms their increasing role in human disease and the occupational risk of infection in the transhumant ecosystem in the absence of safe drinking water and environmental contamination.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) presents as yearly epidemics in temperate climates. We analysed the association of atmospheric conditions to RSV epidemics in San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico. The weekly number of RSV detections between October 2002 and May 2006 were correlated to ambient temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vapour tension, dew point, precipitation, and hours of light using time-series and regression analyses. Of the variation in RSV cases, 49·8% was explained by the study variables. Of the explained variation in RSV cases, 32·5% was explained by the study week and 17·3% was explained by meteorological variables (average daily temperature, maximum daily temperature, temperature at 08:00 hours, and relative humidity at 08:00 hours). We concluded that atmospheric conditions, particularly temperature, partly explain the year to year variability in RSV activity. Identification of additional factors that affect RSV seasonality may help develop a model to predict the onset of RSV epidemics.

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of a possible unmeasured confounding variable in a previously published association between the effects of household water supply and positive results for hepatitis A serology. This was estimated using a path of integration between two methods of sensitivity analysis, called Rosenbaum's method and Greenland's external adjustment. The association between household water supply and positive results for hepatitis A (outcome) serology was insensitive to confounding unless the odds ratio for the association between the confounder and the outcome was ⩾4. The integration of the two sensitivity analysis methods presented proved useful when assessing the effects of a potential unmeasured confounder.

Although most foodborne infections are undiagnosed, the incidence of these infections is usually calculated from reported cases. We present a novel population-based method to estimate the incidence of non-typhoid Salmonella infections. From 154 patients with confirmed Salmonella serotype Enteritidis infection, we determined the kinetics of the antibody response. The estimated mean responses for the three classes of serum antibodies were combined such that the time from infection could be estimated from antibody measurements. Next, serum samples collected in 1983, 1986, 1992, and 1999 from the general population were analysed for antibodies. We demonstrated how these measurements can be translated into an estimate of the general incidence. Based on serology markers there were 13 exposures leading to seroresponse of Salmonella Enteritidis/1000 person-years in 1983; the similar number in 1999 was 217. This trend confirms the increase in the number of culture-confirmed cases reported to the national surveillance system.

Epidemiological studies have demonstrated high hospitalization rates attributable to influenza and RSV in children aged <24 months. We prospectively recruited 977 children, aged <6 years, presenting with influenza-like illnesses at a hospital during two winter seasons between 2002 and 2004. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were performed and sent for viral immunofluorescence and PCR. Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) rates were stratified by age, in-patient/outpatient status and clinical diagnosis. The influenza A and RSV hospitalization incidence rates were 4 and 11/10 000 person-months respectively, whereas the accident and emergency (A&E) outpatient rates were both 32/10 000 person-months in those aged <6 years. The influenza A and RSV hospitalization rates were highest in children aged <24 months and <12 months (9·1 and 35·7/10 000 person-months) respectively. Infection rates were particularly high in those aged <6 months for both viruses. The age-specific influenza A and RSV A&E admission rates were highest in those aged >6 months and those aged <12 months, respectively (43 and 92·5/10 000 person-months, respectively). In conclusion, these high paediatric RSV and influenza incidence rates can be used to inform UK policy on childhood influenza immunization and subsequent RSV immunization in the future.