We analyse several aspects of a class of simple counting processes that can emerge in some fields of applications where a change point occurs. In particular, under simple conditions we prove a significant inequality for the stochastic intensity.

We consider two classes of life distribution, V D and V I , the members of which are defined in terms of the conditional variance σ 2(t) of the remaining lifetime of a system: a life distribution F belongs to V D if is a decreasing function and to V I if is increasing. We study closure properties of these classes under relevant reliability operations such as mixing, convolution and formation of coherent systems. We show, for example, that the class V D is not closed under convolution or mixing, and that the class V I is not closed under formation of coherent systems.

In this paper we consider some dependence properties and orders among multivariate distributions, and we study their preservation under mixtures. Applications of these results in reliability, risk theory, and mixtures of discrete distributions are provided.

In bioinformatics, the notion of an ‘island’ enhances the efficient simulation of gapped local alignment statistics. This paper generalizes several results relevant to gapless local alignment statistics from one to higher dimensions, with a particular eye to applications in gapped alignment statistics. For example, reversal of paths (rather than of discrete time) generalizes a distributional equality, from queueing theory, between the Lindley (local sum) and maximum processes. Systematic investigation of an ‘ownership’ relationship among vertices in ℤ2 formalizes the notion of an island as a set of vertices having a common owner. Predictably, islands possess some stochastic ordering and spatial averaging properties. Moreover, however, the average number of vertices in a subcritical stationary island is 1, generalizing a theorem of Kac about stationary point processes. The generalization leads to alternative ways of simulating some island statistics.

In this article we investigate a class of superprocess with cut-off branching, studying the long-time behavior of the occupation time process. Persistence of the process holds in all dimensions. Central-limit-type theorems are obtained, and the scales are dimension dependent. The Gaussian limit holds only when d ≤ 4. In dimension one, a full large deviation principle is established and the rate function is identified explicitly. Our result shows that the super-Brownian motion with cut-off branching in dimension one has many features that are similar to super-Brownian motion in dimension three.

Let (S n ) n≥0 be a correlated random walk on the integers, let M 0 ≥ S 0 be an arbitrary integer, and let M n = max{M 0, S 1,…, S n }. An optimal stopping rule is derived for the sequence M n - nc, where c > 0 is a fixed cost. The optimal rule is shown to be of threshold type: stop at the first time that M n - S n ≥ Δ, where Δ is a certain nonnegative integer. An explicit expression for this optimal threshold is given.

We introduce a new model for the infection of one or more subjects by a single agent, and calculate the probability of infection after a fixed length of time. We model the agent and subjects as random walkers on a complete graph of N sites, jumping with equal rates from site to site. When one of the walkers is at the same site as the agent for a length of time τ, we assume that the infection probability is given by an exponential law with parameter γ, i.e. q(τ) = 1 - e-γ τ . We introduce the boundary condition that all walkers return to their initial site (‘home’) at the end of a fixed period T. We also assume that the incubation period is longer than T, so that there is no immediate propagation of the infection. In this model, we find that for short periods T, i.e. such that γ T ≪ 1 and T ≪ 1, the infection probability is remarkably small and behaves like T 3. On the other hand, for large T, the probability tends to 1 (as might be expected) exponentially. However, the dominant exponential rate is given approximately by 2γ/[(2+γ)N] and is therefore small for large N.

An explicit, computable, and sufficient condition for exponential ergodicity of single-birth processes is presented. The corresponding criterion for birth–death processes is proved using a new method. As an application, some sufficient conditions are obtained for exponential ergodicity of an extended class of continuous-time branching processes and of multidimensional Q-processes, by comparison methods.

We consider a branching model, which we call the collision branching process (CBP), that accounts for the effect of collisions, or interactions, between particles or individuals. We establish that there is a unique CBP, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be nonexplosive. We review results on extinction probabilities, and obtain explicit expressions for the probability of explosion and the expected hitting times. The upwardly skip-free case is studied in some detail.

One approach to the computation of the price of an Asian option involves the Hartman–Watson distribution. However, numerical problems for its density occur for small values. This motivates the asymptotic study of its distribution function.

The ‘rendezvous time’ of two stochastic processes is the first time at which they cross or hit each other. We consider such times for a Brownian motion with drift, starting at some positive level, and a compound Poisson process or a process with one random jump at some random time. We also ask whether a rendezvous takes place before the Brownian motion hits zero and, if so, at what time. These questions are answered in terms of Laplace transforms for the underlying distributions. The analogous problem for reflected Brownian motion is also studied.

The eigentime identity is proved for continuous-time reversible Markov chains with Markov generator L. When the essential spectrum is empty, let {0 = λ0 < λ1 ≤ λ2 ≤ ···} be the whole spectrum of L in L2. Then ∑ n≥1 λ n -1 < ∞ implies the existence of the spectral gap α of L in L∞. Explicit formulae are presented in the case of birth–death processes and from these formulae it is proved that ∑ n≥1 λ n -1 < ∞ if and only if α > 0.

Consider a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with success probability p. Let N(n; k 1, k 2) denote the number of times that k 1 failures are followed by k 2 successes among the first n Bernoulli trials. We employ the Stein-Chen method to obtain a total variation upper bound for the rate of convergence of N(n; k 1, k 2) to a suitable Poisson random variable. As a special case, the corresponding limit theorem is established. Similar results are obtained for N k 3 (n; k 1, k 2), the number of times that k 1 failures followed by k 2 successes occur k 3 times successively in n Bernoulli trials. The bounds obtained are generally sharper than, and improve upon, some of the already known results. Finally, the technique is adapted to obtain Poisson approximation results for the occurrences of the above-mentioned events under Markov-dependent trials.

This paper studies a class of stationary covariance models, in both the discrete- and the continuous-time domains, which possess a simple functional form γ(τ + τ0)+γ(τ − τ0)− 2γ(τ), where τ 0 is a fixed lag andγ(τ) is an intrinsically stationary variogram, and include the fractional Gaussian noise of Kolmogorov (1940) and a stochastic volatility model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001), (2002) as special cases. Properties of the class, and interesting special cases with long memory, are studied. We also characterize the covariance function via the variogram.

We study numerical integration based on Markov chains. Our focus is on establishing error bounds uniformly on classes of integrands. Since in general state space the concept of uniform ergodicity is too restrictive to cover important cases, we analyze the error of V-uniformly ergodic Markov chains. We place emphasis on the interplay between ergodicity properties of the transition kernel, the initial distributions and the classes of integrands. Our analysis is based on arguments from interpolation theory.

In the characterization of multivariate extremal indices of multivariate stationary processes, multivariate maxima of moving maxima processes, or M4 processes for short, have been introduced by Smith and Weissman. Central to the introduction of M4 processes is that the extreme observations of multivariate stationary processes may be characterized in terms of a limiting max-stable process under quite general conditions, and that a max-stable process can be arbitrarily closely approximated by an M4 process. In this paper, we derive some additional basic probabilistic properties for a finite class of M4 processes, each of which contains finite-range clustered moving patterns, called signature patterns, when extreme events occur. We use these properties to construct statistical estimation schemes for model parameters.

The stochastic process resulting when pairs of events are formed from two point processes is a rich source of questions. When the two point processes have different rates, the resulting stochastic process has a mean drift towards either -∞ or +∞. However, when the two processes have equal rates, we end up with a null-recurrent Markov chain and this has interesting behavior. We study this process for both discrete and continuous times and consider special cases with applications in communications networks. One interesting result for applications is the waiting time of a packet waiting for a token, a special case of this pair-formation process. Pair formation by two independent Poisson processes of equal rates results in a point process that is asymptotically a Poisson process of the same rate.

We present several results refining and extending those of Neuts and Alfa on weak convergence of the pair-formation process when arrivals follow two independent Poisson processes. Our results are obtained using a different, more straightforward, and apparently simpler probabilistic approach. Firstly, we give a very short proof of the fact that the convergence of the pair-formation process to a Poisson process actually holds in total variation (with a bound for convergence rate). Secondly, we extend the result of the theorem to the case of multiple labels: there are d independent arrival Poisson processes, and we are looking at the epochs when d-tuples are formed. Thirdly, we extend the original (weak convergence) result to the case when arrivals follow independent renewal processes (this extension is also valid for the d-tuple formation).

In this paper we use the exit time theory for Lévy processes to derive new closed-form results for the busy period distribution of finite-capacity fluid M/G/1 queues. Based on this result, we then obtain the busy period distribution for finite-capacity queues with on–off inputs when the off times are exponentially distributed.

We consider an M/GI/1 queue with two types of customers, positive and negative, which cancel each other out. The server provides service to either a positive customer or a negative customer. In such a system, the queue length can be either positive or negative and an arrival either joins the queue, if it is of the same sign, or instantaneously removes a customer of the opposite sign at the end of the queue or in service. This study is a generalization of Gelenbe's original concept of a queue with negative customers, where only positive customers need services and negative customers arriving at an empty system are lost or need no service. In this paper, we derive the transient and the stationary probability distributions for the major performance measures in terms of generating functions and Laplace transforms. It has been shown that the previous results for the system with negative arrivals of zero service time are special cases of our model. In addition, we obtain the stationary waiting time distribution of this system in terms of a Laplace transform.