This paper deals with the simple Galton-Watson process with immigration, {Xn} with offspring probability generating function (p.g.f.) F(s) and immigration p.g.f. B(s), under the basic assumption that the process is subcritical (0 < m ≡ F'(1–) < 1), and that 0 < λ ≡ B'(1–) < ∞, 0 < B(0) < 1, together with various other moment assumptions as needed. Estimation theory for the rates m and λ on the basis of a single terminated realization of the process {Xn} is developed, in that (strongly) consistent estimators for both m and λ are obtained, together with associated central limit theorems in relation to m and μ ≡ λ(1–m)–1 Following this, historical antecedents are analysed, and some examples of application of the estimation theory are discussed, with particular reference to the continuous-time branching process with immigration. The paper also contains a strong law for martingales; and discusses relation of the above theory to that of a first order autoregressive process.

The results of this paper deal directly with the behavior of compositions of random probability generating functions. These results are then applied to the theory of branching processes with random environments. In particular, it is shown that it is not possible to strengthen many of the existing limit theorems on this subject.

We present a solution to a special system of Kolmogorov forward equations. We use this result to present a useful expression for the transition probabilities of the extended simple stochastic epidemic model and an epidemic model involving cross-infection between two otherwise isolated groups.

In this paper is developed a theory of branching processes in which the division probability and rate of growth of cells depend only on their ‘size’ and in which ‘size’ is shared between daughters. Specific results are obtained in a linear case including the calculation of the correlation coefficient for the life spans of sisters.

This paper is an extension of Davis (1965) by allowing immigration. Mean square convergence is proved for a random variable in a branching diffusion process allowing immigration.

A well-known result in the theory of branching processes provides an asymptotic expression for the population size (valid for large times) in terms of a single random variable, multiplied by a deterministic exponential growth factor. In the present paper this is generalized to a class of size-dependent population models. The work is based on the series of sojourn times. An essential tool is the use of probabilities conditional upon non-extinction (taboo probabilities).

This paper is concerned with the cost Cis = aWis + bTis (a, b > 0) of a general stochastic epidemic starting with i infectives and s susceptibles; Tis denotes the duration of the epidemic, and Wis the area under the infective curve. The joint Laplace-Stieltjes transform of (Wis, Tis) is studied, and a recursive equation derived for it. The duration Tis and its mean Nis are considered in some detail, as are also Wis and its mean Mis. Using the results obtained, bounds are found for the mean cost of the epidemic.

In a multi-type critical age-dependent branching process with immigration, the numbers of cell types alive at time t, each divided by t, as t becomes large, tends to a one-dimensional gamma distribution law. The method of proof employs generating functions and compution of asymptotic moments. Connections with earlier results and extensions are indicated.

In the Bellman-Harris (B-H) age-dependent branching process, the birth of a child can occur only at the time of its parent's death. A general class of branching process in which births can occur throughout the lifetime of a parent has been introduced by Crump and Mode. This class shares with the B-H process the property that the generation sizes {ξn} form a Galton-Watson process, and so may be classified into subcritical, critical or supercritical according to the value of m = E{ξ1}. Crump and Mode showed that, as regards extinction probability, asymptotic behaviour, and for the supercritical case, convergence in mean square of Z(t)/E[Z(t)], as t → ∞, where Z(t) is the population size at time t given one ancestor at t = 0, properties of the B-H process can be extended to this general class. In this paper conditions are found for the convergence in distribution of Z(t)/E{Z(t)} in the supercritical case to a non-degenerate limit distribution. In contrast to the B-H process, these conditions are not the same as those for ξn/mn to have a non-degenerate limit. An integral equation is established for the generating function of Z(t), which is more complicated than the corresponding one for the B-H process and involves the conditional probability generating functional of N(x), x 0, ≧ the number of children born to an individual in the age interval [0, x].

The ratio of the number Xn of different words (types) in a text of length n (token) words to n has received considerable attention in the literature of statistical linguistics. The present note contains two stochastic models for Xn based on an inhomogeneous discrete Markov process of the pure birth type where the transition probabilities take certain forms depending only upon n. These models are then tested against data obtained from the plays of William Shakespeare.

Since the pioneering work of Siegert (1951), the problem of determining the first passage time distribution for a preassigned continuous and time homogeneous Markov process described by a diffusion equation has been deeply analyzed and satisfactorily solved. Here we discuss the “inverse problem” — of applicative interest — consisting in deciding whether a given function can be considered as the first passage time probability density function for some continuous and homogeneous Markov diffusion process. A constructive criterion is proposed, and some examples are provided. One of these leads to a singular diffusion equation representing a dynamical model for the genesis of the lognormal distribution.

Continuous time one-type branching processes allowing immigration are considered. The invariant measure, which is shown to be unique, is exhibited. From this, a condition for positive recurrence similar to that of Heathcote's in the discrete time case is obtained. For the critical discrete time case, Seneta's sufficient condition for positive recurrence is improved to give a necessary and sufficient condition.

Equations are derived describing a central limit type large population approximation for continuous time Markov lattice processes in one or more dimensions, such as are commonly encountered in biological models. A method of solving the equations using only the deterministic solution of the process is explained, and it is extended by the use of a martingale argument to provide more detailed information about the process.

A conditional Poisson process (often called a double stochastic Poisson process) is characterized as a random time transformation of a Poisson process with unit intensity. This characterization is used to exhibit the jump times and sizes of these processes, and to study their limiting behavior. A conditional Poisson process, whose intensity is a function of a Markov process, is discussed. Results similar to those presented can be obtained for any process with conditional stationary independent increments.

The general minimum mean square error prediction problem is studied for the class of processes defined by polynomial functions of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. In particular, the relative error difference for non-linear prediction compared with optimal linear prediction is calculated. Limiting values are determined, including an upper bound for the maximal relative error difference. These results show no difference over the entire class for both long and short prediction lead times. For a single Hermite polynomial, the relative error difference is zero. An analytical solution for the maximal difference for lead times below a given threshold is derived. This latter result has been verified numerically on a digital computer for polynomials up to 17th degree.

In this paper we derive the probability distributions of the number of molecules and of the lifetime of a molecule in a stochastic rth-order system by direct evaluation of probabilities, avoiding the use of differential-difference equations. Maximum likelihood estimation of the rate constant is based on an observation of the level of the system at time t > 0. We find the asymptotic solution of the likelihood equation for a large initial number of molecules. By comparison with the numerical solution of the likelihood equation, the asymptotic estimator is shown to be a satisfactory approximation for second order reactions which are far from completion.

A stationary doubly stochastic Poisson sequence is considered. Asymptotic properties of the best linear estimates of the intensities are investigated.

The stochastic model for breaking of molecular segments proposed by Bithell is analysed and some results relating to the distribution of the number of fragments are obtained by using a slightly more general model which allows multiple ruptures. The product density technique is employed to derive the mean and mean square number of segments at any time t and the number of segments with length greater than y at time of production.

A random process on the circle is a family of random variables X(P,t) indexed by the position P on the unit circle and by the time t (t = 0, + 1, ···). For a homogeneous and stationary process, using its Fourier series expansion, we deduce a spectral representation of the covariance function. The purpose of the paper is to develop a spectral analysis when X(P,t) is observed at all the points on the circle at t = 0, 1, ···, T – 1. The asymptotic distribution of the family of finite Fourier transforms, of the family of periodograms and of the family of spectral densities estimates are obtained from results available for vector-valued time series. Also, a sample covariance function for X (P,t) is defined and its asymptotic distribution derived.

We study a class of processes which are essentially processes with stationary independent increments whose basic parameters are allowed to vary randomly over time. These processes are equivalent to random time transformations of processes with stationary independent increments where the time process is independent of the original process. Several limiting theorems are presented including weak and strong laws of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem.