Consider a bipartite random geometric graph on the union of two independent homogeneous Poisson point processes in d-space, with distance parameter r and intensities λ,μ. For any λ>0 we consider the percolation threshold μc(λ) associated to the parameter μ. Denoting by λc the percolation threshold for the standard Poisson Boolean model with radii r, we show the lower bound μc(λ)≥clog(c∕(λ−λc)) for any λ>λc with c>0 a fixed constant. In particular, there is no phase transition in μ at the critical value of λ, that is, μc(λc) =∞.

We consider a polling system with two queues, exhaustive service, no switchover times, and exponential service times with rate µ in each queue. The waiting cost depends on the position of the queue relative to the server: it costs a customer c per time unit to wait in the busy queue (where the server is) and d per time unit in the idle queue (where there is no server). Customers arrive according to a Poisson process with rate λ. We study the control problem of how arrivals should be routed to the two queues in order to minimize the expected waiting costs andcharacterize individually and sociallyoptimal routeing policies under three scenarios of available information at decision epochs: no, partial, and complete information. In the complete information case, we develop a new iterative algorithm to determine individually optimal policies (which are symmetric Nash equilibria), and show that such policies can be described by a switching curve. We use Markov decision processes to compute the socially optimal policies. We observe numerically that the socially optimal policy is well approximated by a linear switching curve. We prove that the control policy described by this linear switching curve is indeed optimal for the fluid version of the two-queue polling system.

In this paper we consider the integral functionals of the general epidemic model up to its extinction. We develop a new approach to determine the exact Laplace transform of such integrals. In particular, we obtain the Laplace transform of the duration of the epidemic T, the final susceptible size ST, the area under the trajectory of the infectives AT, and the area under the trajectory of the susceptibles BT. The method relies on the construction of a family of martingales and allows us to solve simple recursive relations for the involved parameters. The Laplace transforms are then expanded in terms of a special class of polynomials. The analysis is generalized in part to Markovian epidemic processes with arbitrary state-dependent rates.

A classical Pólya urn scheme is a Markov process where the evolution is encoded by a replacement matrix (Ri, j)1 ≤ i, j ≤ d. At every discrete time-step, we draw a ball uniformly at random, denote its colour c, and replace it in the urn together with Rc, j balls of colour j (for all 1 ≤ j ≤ d). We study multiple drawing Pólya urns, where the replacement rule depends on the random drawing of a set of m balls from the urn (with or without replacement). Many particular examples of this situation have been studied in the literature, but the only general results are due to Kuba and Mahmoud (2017). These authors proved second-order asymptotic results in the two-colour case, under the so-called balance and affinity assumptions, the latter being somewhat artificial. The main idea of this work is to apply stochastic approximation methods to this problem, which enables us to prove analogous results to Kuba and Mahmoud, but without the artificial affinity hypothesis, and, for the first time in the literature, in the d-colour case (d ≥ 3). We also provide some partial results in the two-colour nonbalanced case, the novelty here being that the only results for this case currently in the literature are for particular examples.

In this paper we obtain a recursive formula for the density of the double-barrier Parisian stopping time. We present a probabilistic proof of the formula for the first few steps of the recursion, and then a formal proof using explicit Laplace inversions. These results provide an efficient computational method for pricing double-barrier Parisian options.

In this paper we prove a quenched functional central limit theorem for a biased random walk on a supercritical Galton–Watson tree with leaves. This extends a result of Peres and Zeitouni (2008) where the case without leaves was considered. A conjecture of Ben Arous and Fribergh (2016) suggests an upper bound on the bias which we observe to be sharp.

Let X be the constrained random walk on ℤ+2 having increments (1,0), (-1,1), and (0,-1) with respective probabilities λ, µ1, and µ2 representing the lengths of two tandem queues. We assume that X is stable and µ1≠µ2. Let τn be the first time when the sum of the components of X equals n. Let Y be the constrained random walk on ℤ×ℤ+ having increments (-1,0), (1,1), and (0,-1) with probabilities λ, µ1, and µ2. Let τ be the first time that the components of Y are equal to each other. We prove that Pn-xn(1),xn(2)(τ<∞) approximates pn(xn) with relative error exponentially decaying in n for xn=⌊nx⌋, x ∈ℝ+2, 0<x(1)+x(2)<1, x(1)>0. An affine transformation moving the origin to the point (n,0) and letting n→∞ connect the X and Y processes. We use a linear combination of basis functions constructed from single and conjugate points on a characteristic surface associated with X to derive a simple expression for ℙy(τ<∞) in terms of the utilization rates of the nodes. The proof that the relative error decays exponentially in n uses a sequence of subsolutions of a related Hamilton‒Jacobi‒Bellman equation on a manifold consisting of three copies of ℝ+2 glued to each other along the constraining boundaries. We indicate how the ideas of the paper can be generalized to more general processes and other exit boundaries.

The mean time to failure (MTTF) function in age replacement is used to evaluate the performance and effectiveness of the age replacement policy. In this paper, based on the MTTF function, we introduce two new nonparametric classes of lifetime distributions with nonmonotonic mean time to failure in age replacement; increasing then decreasing MTTF (IDMTTF) and decreasing then increasing MTTF (DIMTTF). The implications between these classes of distributions and some existing classes of nonmonotonic ageing classes are studied. The characterizations of IDMTTF and DIMTTF in terms of the scaled total time on test transform are also obtained.

In this paper we propose a new approach to study the Parisian ruin problem for spectrally negative Lévy processes. Since our approach is based on a hybrid observation scheme switching between discrete and continuous observations, we call it a temporal approach as opposed to the spatial approximation approach in the literature. Our approach leads to a unified proof for the underlying processes with bounded or unbounded variation paths, and our result generalizes Loeffen et al. (2013).

In this paper we are concerned with modelling the reliability of a system subject to external shocks. In a run shock model, the system fails when a sequence of shocks above a threshold arrive in succession. Nevertheless, using a single threshold to measure the severity of a shock is too critical in real practice. To this end, we develop a generalized run shock model with two thresholds. We employ a phase-type distribution to model the damage size and the inter-arrival time of shocks, which is highly versatile and may be used to model many quantitative features of random phenomenon. Furthermore, we use the Markovian property to construct a multi-state system which degrades with the arrival of shocks. We also provide a numerical example to illustrate our results.

We study the asymptotic tail behavior of the first-passage time over a moving boundary for a random walk conditioned to return to zero, where the increments of the random walk have finite variance. Typically, the asymptotic tail behavior may be described through a regularly varying function with exponent -½, where the impact of the boundary is captured by the slowly varying function. Yet, the moving boundary may have a stronger effect when the tail is considered at a time close to the return point of the random walk bridge, leading to a possible phase transition depending on the order of the distance between zero and the moving boundary.

The Samaniego signature is a relevant tool for studying the performance of a system whose component lifetimes are exchangeable. It is well known that the stochastic ordering of the signatures of two systems implies the same for the respective system lifetimes. We prove that the reverse claim is not true when the component lifetimes are independent and identically distributed. There exist small proportions of systems with stochastically ordered lifetimes whose signatures are not ordered. We present a simple procedure in order to check whether the system lifetimes are stochastically ordered even if their signatures are not comparable.

Mao and Hu (2010) left an open problem about the hazard rate order between the largest order statistics from two samples of n geometric random variables. Du et al. (2012) solved this open problem when n = 2, and Wang (2015) solved for 2 ≤ n ≤ 9. In this paper we completely solve this problem for any value of n.

We consider the Bernoulli bandit problem where one of the arms has win probability α and the others β, with the identity of the α arm specified by initial probabilities. With u = max(α, β), v = min(α, β), call an arm with win probability u a good arm. Whereas it is known that the strategy of always playing the arm with the largest probability of being a good arm maximizes the expected number of wins in the first n games for all n, we conjecture that it also stochastically maximizes the number of wins. That is, we conjecture that this strategy maximizes the probability of at least k wins in the first n games for all k, n. The conjecture is proven when k = 1, and k = n, and when there are only two arms and k = n - 1.

De Finetti’s optimal dividend problem has recently been extended to the case when dividend payments can be made only at Poisson arrival times. In this paper we consider the version with bail-outs where the surplus must be nonnegative uniformly in time. For a general spectrally negative Lévy model, we show the optimality of a Parisian-classical reflection strategy that pays the excess above a given barrier at each Poisson arrival time and also reflects from below at 0 in the classical sense.

We give a simple conceptual proof of the consistency of a test for multivariate uniformity in a bounded set K ⊂ ℝd that is based on the maximal spacing generated by independent and identically distributed points X1, . . ., Xn in K, i.e. the volume of the largest convex set of a given shape that is contained in K and avoids each of these points. Since asymptotic results for the d > 1 case are only availabe under uniformity, a key element of the proof is a suitable coupling. The proof is general enough to cover the case of testing for uniformity on compact Riemannian manifolds with spacings defined by geodesic balls.