We investigate zero-temperature dynamics for a homogeneous ferromagnetic Ising model on the homogeneous tree of degree three (𝕋) with random (i.i.d. Bernoulli) spin configuration at time 0. Letting θ denote the probability that any particular vertex has a +1 initial spin, for infinite spin clusters do not exist at time 0 but we show that infinite ‘spin chains’ (doubly infinite paths of vertices with a common spin) exist in abundance at any time ϵ > 0. We study the structure of the subgraph of 𝕋 generated by the vertices in time-ϵ spin chains. We show the existence of a phase transition in the sense that, for some critical θc with spin chains almost surely never form for θ < θc but almost surely do form in finite time for θ > θc. We relate these results to certain quantities of physical interest, such as the t → ∞ asymptotics of the probability that any particular vertex changes spin after time t.

By applying a perturbation method to the structured coalescent process in population genetics theory, we obtain the approximate solutions of the moment generating functions for the total coalescence time, the number of segregating sites among sampled DNA sequences and the number of allele types in a sample in the case of strong migration.

In first-passage percolation models, the passage time T(0,L) from the origin to a point L is expected to exhibit deviations of order |L|χ from its mean, while minimizing paths are expected to exhibit fluctuations of order |L|ξ away from the straight line segment . Here, for Euclidean models in dimension d, we establish the lower bounds ξ ≥ 1/(d+1) and χ ≥(1-(d-1)ξ)/2. Combining this latter bound with the known upper bound ξ ≤ 3/4 yields that χ ≥ 1/8 for d=2.

Lamperti's transformation, an isometry between self-similar and stationary processes, is used to solve some problems of linear estimation of continuous-time, self-similar processes. These problems include causal whitening and innovations representations on the positive real line, as well as prediction from certain finite and semi-infinite intervals. The method is applied to the specific case of fractional Brownian motion (FBM), yielding alternate derivations of known prediction results, along with some novel whitening and interpolation formulae. Some associated insights into the problem of discrete prediction are also explored. Closed-form expressions for the spectra and spectral factorization of the stationary processes associated with the FBM are obtained as part of this development.

We study a system of interacting renewal processes which is a model for neuronal activity. We show that the system possesses an exponentially large number (with respect to the number of neurons in the network) of limiting configurations of the ‘firing neurons’. These we call patterns. Furthermore, under certain conditions of symmetry we find an algorithm to control limiting patterns by means of the connection parameters.

The lifelengths of components of a system are usually dependent due to the common random production and operating environments. In this paper, we introduce a multi-variate pure jump Markov process to describe a large class of damage processes on various system components driven by common environmental shocks, and establish some dependence properties (association) for such a process and its multivariate increment process. These strong association properties describe both spatial dependence and temporal dependence of a multivariate pure jump process, and also provide a vehicle to derive some structural properties of component lifelengths of the systems operating in such an environment. Some bounds for the joint survival functions of component lifelengths are also obtained.

A central limit theorem is established for additive functions of a Markov chain that can be constructed as an iterated random function. The result goes beyond earlier work by relaxing the continuity conditions imposed on the additive function, and by relaxing moment conditions related to the random function. It is illustrated by an application to a Markov chain related to fractals.

It is proved that the strong Doeblin condition (i.e., ps(x,y) ≥ asπ(y) for all x,y in the state space) implies convergence in the relative supremum norm for a general Markov chain. The convergence is geometric with rate (1 - as)1/s. If the detailed balance condition and a weak continuity condition are satisfied, then the strong Doeblin condition is equivalent to convergence in the relative supremum norm. Convergence in other norms under weaker assumptions is proved. The results give qualitative understanding of the convergence.

Minimal repairs have been given considerable attention in the reliability literature. Instead of replacing a failed system by a new one, such a minimal repair restores the system to the state it had just before failure. But the state just before failure depends on the information which is available about the system. Different information levels are possible. This paper gives a general definition characterizing point processes which describe time points of minimal repairs with respect to a certain information level. Some examples demonstrate the wide range of applications.

Let Xi ≥ 0 be independent, i = 1,…, n, with known distributions and let Xn*= max(X1,…,Xn). The classical ‘ratio prophet inequality’ compares the return to a prophet, which is EXn*, to that of a mortal, who observes the Xis sequentially, and must resort to a stopping rule t. The mortal's return is V(X1,…,Xn) = max EXt, where the maximum is over all stopping rules. The classical inequality states that EXn* < 2V(X1,…,Xn). In the present paper the mortal is given k ≥ 1 chances to choose. If he uses stopping rules t1,…,tk his return is E(max(Xt1,…,Xtk)). Let t(b) be the ‘simple threshold stopping rule’ defined to be the smallest i for which Xi ≥ b, or n if there is no such i. We show that there always exists a proper choice of k thresholds, such that EXn* ≤ ((k+1)/k)Emax(Xt1,…,Xtk)), where ti is of the form t(bi) with some added randomization. Actually the thresholds can be taken to be thej/(k+1) percentile points of the distribution of Xn*, j = 1,…,k, and hence only knowledge of the distribution of Xn* is needed.

A unifying technology is introduced for finding explicit closed form expressions for joint moment generating functions of various random quantities associated with some waiting time problems. Sooner and later waiting times are covered for general discrete- and continuous-time models. The models are either Markov chains or semi-Markov processes with a finite number of states. Waiting times associated with generalized phase-type distributions, that are of interest in survival analysis and other areas, are also covered.

The transition functions for the correlated random walk with two absorbing boundaries are derived by means of a combinatorial construction which is based on Krattenthaler's theorem for counting lattice paths with turns. Results for walks with one boundary and for unrestricted walks are presented as special cases. Finally we give an asymptotic formula, which proves to be useful for computational purposes.

In this paper, we consider positive linear operators L representable in terms of stochastic processes Z having right-continuous non-decreasing paths. We introduce the equivalent notions of derived operator and derived process of order n of L and Z, respectively. When acting on absolutely continuous functions of order n, we obtain a Taylor's formula of the same order for such operators, thus extending to a positive linear operator setting the classical Taylor's formula for differentiable functions. It is also shown that the operators satisfying Taylor's formula are those which preserve generalized convexity of order n. We illustrate the preceding results by considering discrete time processes, counting and renewal processes, centred subordinators and the Yule birth process.

Although the M/D/1/N queueing model is well solved from a computational point of view, there is no known analytical expression of the queue length distribution. In this paper, we derive closed-form formulae for the distribution of the number of customers in the system in the finite-capacity M/D/1 queue. We also give an explicit solution for the mean queue length and the average waiting time.

We consider a network with N infinite-buffer queues with service rates λ, and global task arrival rate Nν. Each task is allocated L queues among N with uniform probability and joins the least loaded one, ties being resolved uniformly. We prove Q-chaoticity on path space for chaotic initial conditions and in equilibrium: any fixed finite subnetwork behaves in the limit N goes to infinity as an i.i.d. system of queues of law Q. The law Q is characterized as the unique solution for a non-linear martingale problem; if the initial conditions are q-chaotic, then Q0 = q, and in equilibrium Q0 = qρ is the globally attractive stable point of the Kolmogorov equation corresponding to the martingale problem. This result is equivalent to a law of large numbers on path space with limit Q, and implies a functional law of large numbers with limit (Qt)t≥0. The significant improvement in buffer utilization, due to the resource pooling coming from the choices, is precisely quantified at the limit.

We study strong asymptotic properties of two types of integral functionals of geometric stochastic processes. These integral functionals are of interest in financial modelling, yielding various option pricings, annuities, etc., by appropriate selection of the processes in their respective integrands. We show that under fairly general conditions on the latter processes the logs of the integral functionals themselves asymptotically behave like appropriate sup functionals of the processes in the exponents of their respective integrands. We illustrate the possible use and applications of these strong invariance theorems by listing and elaborating on several examples.

In this article we introduce generalizations of several well-known reliability bounds. These bounds are based on arbitrary partitions of the family of minimal path or cut sets of the system and can be used for approximating the reliability of any coherent structure with i.i.d. components. An illustration is also given of how the general results can be applied for a specific reliability structure (two-dimensional consecutive-k1 x k2-out-of-n1x n2 system) along with extensive numerical calculations revealing that, in most cases, the generalized bounds perform better than other available bounds in the literature for this system.

Partitioning algorithms for the Euclidean matching and for the semi-matching problem in the plane are introduced and analysed. The algorithms are analogues of Karp's well-known dissection algorithm for the travelling salesman problem. The algorithms are proved to run in time nlogn and to approximate the optimal matching in the probabilistic sense. The analysis is based on the techniques developed in Karp (1977) and on the limit theorem of Redmond and Yukich (1993) for quasiadditive functionals.

A new burn-in procedure for a repairable component is proposed. During a burn-in period, the failed component is only minimally repaired rather than being completely repaired. This procedure is shown to be economical and efficient when the minimal repair method is applicable during a burn-in process. The properties of the optimal burn-in time b∗ and block replacement policy T∗ are also given.

We prove a new heavy traffic limit result for a simple queueing network under a ‘join the shorter queue’ policy, with the amount of traffic which has a routeing choice tending to zero as heavy traffic is approached. In this limit, the system considered does not exhibit state space collapse as in previous work by Foschini and Salz, and Reiman, but there is nevertheless some resource pooling gain over a policy of random routeing.