Hoeffding's inequality can be used in conjunction with the declared parameters of a traffic source, such as its peak rate, to obtain confidence intervals for measurements of the traffic's effective bandwidth. We describe a variety of interval-estimation procedures based on this idea, designed to provide differing degrees of robustness against non-stationarity. We also discuss how to compute confidence intervals for the effective bandwidth of an aggregate of traffic sources.

Martin and Walker ((1997) J. Appl. Prob.34, 657–670) proposed the power-law ρ(v) = c|v|-β, |v| ≥ 1, as a correlation model for stationary time series with long-memory dependence. A straightforward proof of their conjecture on the permissible range of c is given, and various other models for long-range dependence are discussed. In particular, the Cauchy family ρ(v) = (1 + |v/c|α)-β/α allows for the simultaneous fitting of both the long-term and short-term correlation structure within a simple analytical model. The note closes with hints at the fast and exact simulation of fractional Gaussian noise and related processes.

A generalization of the delta method is proposed. The asymptotic distribution of g(Y n ) is obtained when g is not necessarily a differentiable function but verifies some weaker regularity conditions. An application to diversity profiles is also presented.

We propose in this paper two methods to compute Markovian bounds for monotone functions of a discrete time homogeneous Markov chain evolving in a totally ordered state space. The main interest of such methods is to propose algorithms to simplify analysis of transient characteristics such as the output process of a queue, or sojourn time in a subset of states. Construction of bounds are based on two kinds of results: well-known results on stochastic comparison between Markov chains with the same state space; and the fact that in some cases a function of Markov chain is again a homogeneous Markov chain but with smaller state space. Indeed, computation of bounds uses knowledge on the whole initial model. However, only part of this data is necessary at each step of the algorithms.

Let Xt be a Feller (branching) diffusion with drift αx. We consider new processes, the probability measures of which are obtained from that of X via changes of measure involving suitably normalized exponential functions of with λ > 0. The new processes can be thought of as ‘self-reinforcing’ versions of the old.

Depending on the values of α, T and λ, the process under the new measure is shown to exhibit explosion in finite time. We also obtain a number of other results related to the new processes.

Since the Feller diffusion is also the total mass process of a superprocess, we relate the finite-time explosion property to the behaviour of superprocesses with local self-interaction, and raise some interesting questions for these.

Computer simulations had suggested that the strategy that maximises the score on each turn in the dice game described by Roters (1998) may not be the optimal way to reach a given target in the shortest time. We give an analytical treatment, backed by numerical calculations, that finds the optimal strategy to reach such a target.

Let (Xt) be a one-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with initial density function f : ℝ+ → ℝ+, which is a regularly varying function with exponent -(1 + η), η ∊ (0,1). We prove the existence of a probability measure ν with a Lebesgue density, depending on η, such that for every A ∊ B(R+):

We introduce the notion of weakly approaching sequences of distributions, which is a generalization of the well-known concept of weak convergence of distributions. The main difference is that the suggested notion does not demand the existence of a limit distribution. A similar definition for conditional (random) distributions is presented. Several properties of weakly approaching sequences are given. The tightness of some of them is essential. The Cramér-Lévy continuity theorem for weak convergence is generalized to weakly approaching sequences of (random) distributions. It has several applications in statistics and probability. A few examples of applications to resampling are given.

Lifetime distributions for multicomponent systems are developed through the interplay of ageing and stress shocks to the system. The ageing process is explicitly modeled by an exponential function with rate affected by the magnitude of stresses from a compound Poisson process shock model. Applications of these life distributions and associated failure rates towards the study of multicomponent system survival are discussed. In particular, we illustrate the behavior of these survival functions in relevant subsets of the parameter space.

We consider a probabilistic model of a heterogeneous population P subdivided into homogeneous sub-cohorts. A main assumption is that the frailties give rise to a discrete, exchangeable random vector. We put ourselves in the framework of stochastic filtering to derive the conditional distribution of residual lifetimes of surviving individuals, given an observed history of failures and survivals. As a main feature of our approach, this study is based on the analysis of behaviour of the vector of ‘occupation numbers’.

Let τr denote the hitting time of B(0:r) for a multidimensional diffusion process. We give verifiable criteria for finiteness/infiniteness of As an application we exhibit classes of diffusion processes which are recurrent but is infinite for all p > 0, |x| > r > 0; this includes the two-dimensional Brownian motion and the reflecting Brownian motion in a wedge with a certain parameter α = 0.

We show that the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional stochastic fluid network with (possibly dependent) Lévy inputs does not have product form other than in truly obvious cases. This is in contrast to queueing networks, where product form exists for non-obvious situations in which the inputs are independent, and for Brownian networks, where it typically exists for cases where the driving processes are actually dependent.

The distribution of the interpoint distance process of a sequence of pairwise interaction point processes is considered. It is shown that, if the interaction function is piecewise-continuous, then the sequence of interpoint distance processes converges weakly to an inhomogeneous Poisson process under certain sparseness conditions. Convergence of the expectation of the interpoint distance process to the mean of the limiting Poisson process is also established. This suggests a new nonparametric estimator for the interaction function if independent identically distributed samples of the point process are available.

Let X1,…,Xn be independent exponential random variables with Xi having hazard rate . Let Y1,…,Yn be a random sample of size n from an exponential distribution with common hazard rate ̃λ = (∏i=1nλi)1/n, the geometric mean of the λis. Let Xn:n = max{X1,…,Xn}. It is shown that Xn:n is greater than Yn:n according to dispersive as well as hazard rate orderings. These results lead to a lower bound for the variance of Xn:n and an upper bound on the hazard rate function of Xn:n in terms of . These bounds are sharper than those obtained by Dykstra et al. ((1997), J. Statist. Plann. Inference65, 203–211), which are in terms of the arithmetic mean of the λis. Furthermore, let X1*,…,Xn∗ be another set of independent exponential random variables with Xi∗ having hazard rate λi∗, i = 1,…,n. It is proved that if (logλ1,…,logλn) weakly majorizes (logλ1∗,…,logλn∗, then Xn:n is stochastically greater than Xn:n∗.

Extending the cascade model for food webs, we introduce a cyclic cascade model which is a random generation model of cyclic dominance relations. Put n species as n points Q1,Q2,…, Qn on a circle. If the counterclockwise way from Qi to Qj on the circle is shorter than the clockwise way, we say Qi dominates Qj. Consider a tournament whose dominance relations are generated from the points on a circle by this rule. We show that when we take n mutually independently distributed points on the circle, the probability of getting a regular tournament of order 2r+1 as the largest regular tournament is equal to (n/(2r+1))/2n-1. This probability distribution is for the number of existing species after a sufficiently long period, assuming a Lotka-Volterra cyclic cascade model.

We consider birth-death processes taking values in but allow the death rate in state 0 to be positive, so that escape from is possible. Two such processes with transition functions are said to be similar if, for all there are constants cij such that for all t ≥ 0. We determine conditions on the birth and death rates of a birth-death process for the process to be a member of a family of similar processes, and we identify the members of such a family. These issues are also resolved in the more general setting in which the two processes are called similar if there are constants cij and ν such that for all t ≥ 0.

In this paper, a statistic that has been introduced to test for space-time correlation is considered in a time series context. The null hypothesis is white noise; the alternative is any kind of continuous functional dependence. For an autoregressive process close to the null hypothesis, a bound on the distance between the distribution of the statistic and a Poisson distribution is proved, using the Stein-Chen method. The main difficulty in the proof is that the dependence in the time series is not locally restricted. The result implies asymptotically certain discrimination for a reasonable choice of the thresholds.

In the literature on mixed Poisson processes, a number of characterisation properties have been studied. As a new characterisation property for mixed Poisson processes, we show that normalised event occurrence times are the order statistics of independent uniform random variables on (0,1). Berman's theorem on lp-isotropic sequences is applied to prove the results.

Nash's generalization of Gittins’ classic index result to so-called generalized bandit problems (GBPs) in which returns are dependent on the states of all arms (not only the one which is pulled) has proved important for applications. The index theory for special cases of this model in which all indices are positive is straightforward. However, this is not a natural restriction in practice. An earlier proposal for the general case did not yield satisfactory index-based suboptimality bounds for policies — a central feature of classical Gittins index theory. We develop such bounds via a notion of duality for GBPs which is of independent interest. The index which emerges naturally from this analysis is the reciprocal of the one proposed by Nash.

Two related individuals are identical by descent at a genetic locus if they share the same gene copy at that locus due to inheritance from a recent common ancestor. We consider idealized continuous identity by descent (IBD) data in which IBD status is known continuously along chromosomes. IBD data contains information about the relationship between the two individuals, and about the underlying crossover processes. We present a Monte Carlo method for calculating probabilities for IBD data. The method is not restricted to Haldane's Poisson process model of crossing-over but may be used with other models including the chi-square, Kosambi renewal and Sturt models. Results of a simulation study demonstrate that IBD data can be used to distinguish between alternative models for the crossover process.