Let N be a stationary Markov-modulated marked point process on ℝ with intensity β∗ and consider a real-valued functional ψ(N). In this paper we study expansions of the form Eψ(N) = a0 + β∗a1 + ·· ·+ (β∗)nan + o((β∗)n) for β∗→ 0. Formulas for the coefficients ai are derived in terms of factorial moment measures of N. We compute a1 and a2 for the probability of ruin φ u with initial capital u for the risk process in the Markov-modulated environment; a0 = 0. Moreover, we give a sufficient condition for ϕu to be an analytic function of β∗. We allow the premium rate function p(x) to depend on the actual risk reserve.

We prove a monotonicity property for a function of general square integrable pairs of martingales which is useful in fractal-based algorithms for compression of image data.

We discuss the limits of point processes which are generated by a triangular array of rare events. Such point processes are motivated by the exceedances of a high boundary by a random sequence since exceedances are rare events in this case. This application relates the problem to extreme value theory from where the method is used to treat the asymptotic approximation of these point processes. The presented general approach extends, unifies and clarifies some of the various conditions used in the extreme value theory.

In this paper we consider phase-type distributions, their Laplace transforms which are rational functions and their representations which are finite-state Markov chains with an absorbing state. We first prove that, in any representation, the minimal number of states which are visited before absorption is equal to the difference of degree between denominator and numerator in the Laplace transform of the distribution. As an application, we prove that when the Laplace transform has a denominator with n real poles and a numerator of degree less than or equal to one the distribution has order n. We show that, in general, this result can be extended neither to the case where the numerator has degree two nor to the case of non-real poles.

Let P be an infinite irreducible stochastic matrix, recurrent positive and stochastically monotone and Pn be any n × n stochastic matrix with Pn ≧ Tn, where Tn denotes the n × n northwest corner truncation of P. These assumptions imply the existence of limit distributions π and πn for P and Pn respectively. We show that if the Markov chain with transition probability matrix P meets the further condition of geometric recurrence then the exact convergence rate of πn to π can be expressed in terms of the radius of convergence of the generating function of π. As an application of the preceding result, we deal with the random walk on a half line and prove that the assumption of geometric recurrence can be relaxed. We also show that if the i.i.d. input sequence (A(m)) is such that we can find a real number r0 > 1 with , then the exact convergence rate of πn to π is characterized by r0. Moreover, when the generating function of A is not defined for |z| > 1, we derive an upper bound for the distance between πn and π based on the moments of A.

When Siegrist (1989) derived an expression for the probability that player A wins a game that consists of a sequence of Bernoulli trials, the winner being the first player to win n trials and have a lead of at least k, he noted the desirability of giving a direct probabilistic argument. Here we present such an argument, and extend the domain of applicability of the results beyond Bernoulli trials, including cases (such as the tie-break in lawn tennis) where the probability of winning each trial cannot reasonably be taken as constant, and to where there is Markov dependence between successive trials.

A unified way of obtaining stationary time series models with the univariate margins in the convolution-closed infinitely divisible class is presented. Special cases include gamma, inverse Gaussian, Poisson, negative binomial, and generalized Poisson margins. ARMA time series models obtain in the special case of normal margins, sometimes in a different stochastic representation. For the gamma and Poisson margins, some previously defined time series models are included, but for the negative binomial margin, the time series models are different and, in several ways, better than previously defined time series models. The models are related to multivariate distributions that extend a univariate distribution in the convolution-closed infinitely divisible class. Extensions to the non-stationary case and possible applications to modelling longitudinal data are mentioned.

We consider a system of particles in birth and death on a stochastic flow. The system includes a particle process tracking the spatial configuration of live particles on the flow. The particle process is a Markov process on the space of bounded counting measures. We show that its transition semigroup is a Feller semigroup and exhibit its pregenerator. The pregenerator defines a martingale problem. We show that the particle process solves the problem uniquely.

The aim of the present paper is to introduce some techniques, based on the change of variable formula for processes of finite variation, for establishing (integro) differential equations for evaluating the distribution of jump processes for a fixed period of time. This is of interest in insurance mathematics for evaluating the distribution of the total amount of claims occurred over some period of time, and attention will be given to such issues. Firstly we will study some techniques when the process has independent increments, and then a more refined martingale technique is discussed. The building blocks are delivered by the theory of marked point processes and associated martingale theory. A simple numerical example is given.

We consider a system of particles in birth and death on a Brownian flow. The system includes a particle process tracking the spatial configuration of live particles on the flow. The particle process is a Markov process on the space of counting measures. The system depends on a handful of parameters including a rate of drift, diffusion, birth, and killing. We exhibit a Girsanov formula for the absolutely continuous change of particle system by way of a change of drift, birth, and killing rates. We can only allow for a restrictive change of drift on the flow, but for fairly unrestrictive change of birth and death rates. The result is therefore of some interest in problems of statistical inference from passive transport of transient tracers.

This work concerns controlled Markov chains with denumerable state space, (possibly) unbounded cost function, and an expected average cost criterion. Under a Lyapunov function condition, together with mild continuity-compactness assumptions, a simple necessary and sufficient criterion is given so that the relative value functions and differential costs produced by the value iteration scheme converge pointwise to the solution of the optimality equation; this criterion is applied to obtain convergence results when the cost function is bounded below or bounded above.

We introduce the optimal stopping problem of an infinite sequence of records associated with a planar Poisson process. This problem serves as a limiting form of the classical full information best-choice problem. A link between the finite problem and its limiting form is established via embedding n i.i.d. observations into the planar process.

We consider the exact distribution of the number of peaks in a random permutation of the integers 1, 2, ···, n. This arises from a test of whether n successive observations from a continuous distribution are i.i.d. The Eulerian numbers, which figure in the p.g.f., are then shown to provide a link between the simpler problem of ascents (which has been thoroughly analysed) and both our problem of peaks and similar problems on the circle. This link then permits easy deduction of certain general properties, such as linearity in n of the cumulants, in the more complex settings. Since the focus of the paper is on exact distributional results, a uniform bound on the deviation from the limiting normal is included. A secondary purpose of the paper is synthesis, beginning with the more familiar setting of peaks and troughs.

Integration with respect to the fractional Brownian motion Z with Hurst parameter is discussed. The predictor is represented as an integral with respect to Z, solving a weakly singular integral equation for the prediction weight function.

A generalization of the Bernoulli–Laplace diffusion model is proposed. We consider the case where the number of balls exchanged is greater than one. We show that the stationary distribution is the same as in the classical scheme and we give the mean and the variance of the process. In a second stage, we study the asymptotic approximation based on the diffusion process. A solution of transition density is given using Legendre polynomials.

We provide an explicit matrix analytic solution for finite quasi birth and death (QBD) processes, directly expressed in terms of process parameters. We show that this solution has the same asymptotic complexity of previously proposed non-explicit solutions and is more general than some of them. Moreover, it can be easily extended to the case of generalized QBD processes.

In the paper we first show how to convert a generalized Bonferroni-type inequality into an estimation for the generating function of the number of occurring events, then we give estimates for the deviation of two discrete probability distributions in terms of the maximum distance between their generating functions over the interval [0, 1].

Based on a semi-Markov process J(t), t ≧ 0, a reward process Z(t), t ≧ 0, is introduced where it is assumed that the reward function, p(k, x) is nonlinear; if the reward function is linear, i.e. ρ (k, x) = kx, the reward process Z(t), t ≧ 0, becomes the classical one, which has been considered by many authors. An explicit formula for E(Z(t)) is given in terms of the moments of the sojourn time distribution at t, when the reward function is a polynomial.

We consider the position of a tagged particle in the one-dimensional asymmetric nearest-neighbor simple exclusion process. Each particle attempts to jump to the site to its right at rate p and to the site to its left at rate q. The jump is realized if the destination site is empty. We assume p > q. The initial distribution is the product measure with density λ, conditioned to have a particle at the origin. We call X, the position at time t of this particle. Using a result recently proved by the authors for a semi-infinite zero-range process, it is shown that for all t ≧ 0, Xt = Nt − Bt + B0, where {Nt} is a Poisson process of parameter (p – q)(1– λ) and {Bt} is a stationary process satisfying E exp (θ | B, |) < ∞ for some θ > 0. As a corollary we obtain that, properly centered and rescaled, the process {Xt} converges to Brownian motion. A previous result says that in the scale t1/2, the position Xt is given by the initial number of empty sites in the interval (0, λt) divided by λ. We use this to compute the asymptotic covariance at time t of two tagged particles initially at sites 0 and rt. The results also hold for the net flux between two queues in a system of infinitely many queues in series.

Recently new partial orderings s-SFR, s-FR, s-ST, s-CV and s-CX have been defined in the literature. These are more general in the sense that most of the earlier known partial orderings reduce to particular cases of these orderings. Moreover, these orderings have helped in defining a new and useful ageing criterion. In this paper, we discuss preservation properties of these orderings under mixtures. Results are expected to be useful in engineering and reliability, where mixtures of distributions arise naturally in numerous situations. Moreover, existing results, specifically for LR, FR and ST orderings under the operation of mixtures, reduce to special cases.