Speculative bubbles have been offered to explain the excess volatility results by Shiller (1981) and LeRoy and Porter (1981). Recent work by Flood, Hodrick, and Kaplan has shown that rational speculative bubbles cannot be the explanation for the excess volatility results. This paper provides an analytical framework for examining the hypothesis that the simple present value model used for the excess volatility studies is a misspecification of the true model. The method is applied to data from a market index and four large corporations. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that the simple present value model is not the correct specification for stock market pricing.

One of the most vexing areas of business finance is empirical validation of theory. Many problems arise that the investigator cannot avoid. The purpose of this paper is to define a class of problems that can be avoided but that have caused many previous investigators difficulty, even though they may not have realized it. In what follows, the concept of dimensional analysis, borrowed from the physical sciences, is introduced. Then dimensional analysis is extended to the interpretation of estimated regression coefficients.

In this paper a recursive programming model is constructed and optimized so that a mix of bank assets may be selected. The purpose is to link optimization over time with a commercial bank asset management model.

Existing theory suggests that, in an unregulated market for corporate control, the level of takeovers is suboptimal because shareholders do not receive the full benefit from them. However, existing theory neglects that the threat of takeover may divert managerial effort from productive to defensive activities. This paper shows that, when this is considered, takeovers may, in fact, be excessive.

Traditionally, the problem of portfolio choice from risky assets has been solved by considering each asset as a probability distribution of future returns. Depending on the approach used to perform efficiency analysis, knowledge about the asset's probability distribution can be from summary to complete. Thus the mean-variance (EV) model of Markowitz [9] utilizes the first two moments of the distribution, whereas the stochastic dominance (SD) approach [3] employs the entire probability function.

Protection of pensions is a most important subject. The date that the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) was signed, September 2, 1974, is considered the second most important date in social legislation in the United States--second only to the enactment of Social Security.

This paper models the unobservable rate of return on money balances (r) as depending directly on the transactions velocity of money (ν). Approximating this relationship linearly, the efficient markets hyphothesis (EMH) is shown to imply that first differences of the log of ν should either be random or should show negative first-order serial correlation at most. The empirical evidence presented below is consistent with the EMH.

As an extension of previous works, we develop a theoretical framework for the relationship between monetary changes and market risk premia. The wealth effect and the return variability effect of money are shown to be the two important channels of the monetary impact on the market risk premium for three representative classes of utility functions. The theory also states that the market risk premium will be an increasing function of monetary changes given that the two component effects of money are positive.

This paper investigates optimal consumption and portfolio mixture for a new discrete-time, discrete-state preference model. In this model, the investor's preferences for future consumption depend on current wealth and on past consumption experience through a summary descriptor of past consumption. Relations between the optimal consumption/investment decisions and the wealth and summary descriptor states are found.

This paper examined the empirical consequences of explicit consideration of purchasing power risk in portfolio decisions. It was shown that, during a period of significant inflation, the differences between the variance-covariance relations of nominal rates of return and those of real rates of return were sufficiently pronounced to change the composition of investment portfolios. Further, it was shown that the set of real efficient portfolios dominates any investment strategy that ignores purchasing power risk.

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) developed and popularized by Treynor [27], Sharpe [26], Lintner [16], Mossin [19], and Fama [6] is of the form

where

E is the expected return at time t for firm i (conditional on information available at time t); the subscript m denotes the analogous market variable; rf is the risk-free rate; and . Black [2] has developed a similar form with expected returns from a zero beta portfolio, , assuming the role of the risk-free rate.

In the analysis of problems of choice under uncertainty, many results depend on the investigator's ability to determine the signs of certain integrals. A recently derived method of doing this—christened the “covariance method” by Batra [2]—demonstrates that, in certain cases, recognition of the fact that the integrals involved are composed of covariance terms can provide a simple and elegant solution to the problem. This paper uses a simple portfolio model to demonstrate that these covariance terms can be exploited to obtain other useful results as well.

The question of stock market efficiency has received considerable play in the financial press in recent years and understandably so. Not only is this a topic of interest to national policymakers charged with monitoring and promoting market efficiency, but answers to this question have rather important implications for the management of market participants' portfolios. Our interest in this subject focuses on a subsegment of the larger question of market efficiency, in particular on so-called technical theories of stock market behavior.

Many of the typical problems encountered in forecasting a time series are alleviated when the series follows a seasonal pattern. The seasonal effect is independent of a long-term trend and cyclic effect. Furthermore, since the seasonal effect is recurrent and periodic, it is predictable. Thus, when the time series follows a seasonal pattern, the general shape of the series is known. Questions regarding the growth trend of the series, the expansion and contraction of the seasonal pattern, and random variation affecting the series are, however, left unanswered.

When a company enters into a bond indenture or loan agreement, certain restrictions usually are placed on it. These restrictions, known as protective covenants, may have a significant influence on profitability, making the bargaining strategy of the company very important. But to bargain effectively over the restrictiveness of the protective covenants, management must know the impact that the covenants have on profitability.

In our earlier note, we drew attention to the problem of interdependency between the opportunity cost used as a discount rate in determining the net present values of the objective function and the optimal solution of a linear program. In expanding on our article, Lockett and Tompkins (L and T) rightly point to the need for an appropriate definition of opportunity costs.

It is often necessary to estimate a frequency function or certain points on a frequency function from very limited data. A usual procedure for this estimation involves two steps. From the set of “well-known” frequency functions, e.g., the normal, poisson, binomial, etc., one chooses that function which seems likely to best “fit” and then uses the available data to estimate the parameters of the chosen distribution. If no one “well-known” function can be chosen a priori, then perhaps several likely candidates are tried and the one which fits best according to some criterion is chosen. For many purposes, this procedure is quite unobjectionable.

There is strong theoretical support for the notion that prices in a perfect capital market will vary randomly ([22], [16]). However, the existence of some nonrandomness in stock prices is well documented, see ([10], [11], [13], [14], [20]). Of special importance for this study is the research by Young [24] who finds predominantly negative autocorrelation for a sample of securities using a monthly differencing interval. Autocorrelation coefficients are often used as a measure of nonrandom price behavior; negative autocorrelation is an indication of price reversals.

The concept of immunization is currently one of the most widely discussed innovations in bond portfolio management. The interest in immunization, which allows one to nearly guarantee a minimum return performance over a specified investment horizon, is due in large measure to the desire on the part of bond managers to reduce the risk which has accompanied the recent swings in interest rates.

This study deals with the problem of debt — composition of the firm — specifically, the optimal mix of short- and long-term debt, or the optimal maturity composition of the total debt. It can be viewed as a subproblem of the more familiar determination of the optimal mix between total debt and owner's equity (Modigliani and Miller [15 and 16], Durand [3], Schwartz [18], Solomon [20], etc.).