This article examines the severity of the 2008 arbitrage crash in the convertible bond market by estimating how expensive it would have been to liquidate portfolio securities immediately. We consider whether funds actually demanded immediate liquidity or were able to delay trades. Our results indicate that the cost of immediacy was high, but that convertible bond sellers could largely avoid selling at fire sale prices. These results can be explained by dealers recognizing when trades are liquidity-motivated rather than information-based and by a shift to riskless principal trading, allowing dealers to avoid taking bonds into inventory.

We find that 43% of firms that make payouts also raise capital during the same year, resulting in 31% of aggregate payouts being externally financed, primarily with debt. Most financed payouts cannot be explained by payout smoothing in response to volatile earnings or investment (rather, they are the result of firms persistently setting payouts above free cash flow). In fact, 25% of aggregate payouts could not have been paid without the firms simultaneously raising capital. Profitable firms with moderate growth use debt-financed payouts to jointly manage their leverage and cash, thus highlighting the close relationship between payout and capital structure decisions.

Post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) is one of the most solidly documented asset pricing anomalies. We use the controlled conditions of the experimental lab to investigate whether earnings autocorrelation is the driving cause of this anomaly. We observe PEAD in settings with uncorrelated and correlated earnings surprises, confirming that earnings autocorrelation is not a necessary condition for PEAD. Instead, it acts as an accelerator: PEAD is stronger when earnings surprises are correlated. We further show that market prices underadjust to fundamental value changes, and that trading strategies can profitably exploit the PEAD.

We study the drift and cyclical components in U.S. Treasury bonds. We find that bond yields are drifting because they reflect the drift in monetary policy rates. Empirically, modeling the monetary policy drift using demographics and productivity trends, plus long-term inflation expectations, leads to cyclical deviations of bond prices from their drift that predict bond returns in- and out-of-sample. These bond cycles can be interpreted as term premia or/and temporary deviations from rational expectations in a behavioral framework. Through the lens of our model, we detect a significant role of the latter in determining the cyclical properties of yields with short maturities.

Informal risk sharing within social networks and formal financial contracts both enable households to manage risk. We find that financial contracting reduces participation in social networks. Specifically, increased crop insurance usage decreased local religious adherence and congregation membership in agricultural communities. Our identification utilizes the Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act of 1994 that doubled crop insurance usage nationally within a year, although changes in usage varied across counties. Difference-in-difference and Spatial First Difference tests confirm that households substituted insurance for religiosity. This substitution was associated with reductions in crop diversification and crop yields, indicating an increase in moral hazard.

The opening of equity markets to foreign investment by developing countries appears to generate an enormously large positive growth effect (see Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad (2005), Journal of Financial Economics 77, 3–55) in spite of a relatively small role of such markets for financing investment in most economies. We propose a spillover channel from equity market opening to lower costs of bank loans, which helps to explain this puzzle. From analyzing bank loan data associated with China’s introduction of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors program, we find significant support for this channel. Furthermore, we show that a reduction in the risk premium in loans is an important mechanism.

We demonstrate the benefits of merging traditional hypothesis-driven research with new methods from machine learning that enable high-dimensional inference. Because the literature on post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) is characterized by a “zoo” of explanations, limited academic consensus on model design, and reliance on massive data, it will serve as a leading example to demonstrate the challenges of high-dimensional analysis. We identify a small set of variables associated with momentum, liquidity, and limited arbitrage that explain PEAD directly and consistently, and the framework can be applied broadly in finance.

This article empirically analyzes the effect of foreign block acquisitions on U.S. target firms’ credit risk as measured by their credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Foreign block purchases lead to a greater increase in the target firms’ CDS premia post-acquisition compared to domestic block purchases. This effect is stronger when foreign owners are geographically and culturally more distant, and when they obtain majority control. The findings are consistent with an asymmetric information hypothesis, in which foreign owners are less effective monitors due to information barriers.

We investigate whether long-term and short-term components of typical conditioning variables in asset pricing studies, such as the dividend yield or yield spread, have different implications for optimal asset allocation. We argue that short-term components relate mostly to momentum, and long-term components relate mostly to mean-reversion effects, respectively. Therefore, they may have a different information content for investors with different horizons. We obtain improvements in terms of out-of-sample Sharpe ratios and expected utilities for decomposed state variables that directly reflect information related to the stock market, such as the dividend yield and stock market trend.

We document that a significant number of insiders violate the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reporting requirements by filing open market transactions after the legally required deadline. Prior to the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX), 29% of transactions fell outside the required reporting window. Following SOX, 8% are delinquent. Violations cluster in periods of high information asymmetry, incentivizing insiders to keep trades private and earn abnormal returns. Collectively, these findings suggest that a subgroup of insiders personally benefit from violating SEC disclosure requirements. Evidence also suggests that blockholders provide governance for violations. Guilty insiders experience a reduction in board seats and an increased likelihood of turnover.

The findings of this study indicate, contrary to the recent claims by Aaron [1, 2], among others, that the real estate tax on residential properties is regressive. Using a data base from a sample of household observations for FHA–HUD 203–Program single–family market sales for counties contained in five major United States Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs), the statistical analyses suggest that the degree of observed regressivity varies significantly across counties and is the result of two forces. First, in many counties, the poor and de facto inequitable assessment practices are the principal causes for property tax regressivity. Second, in some counties that exhibit relatively equitable and uniform assessment practices, the end product appears to be an income regressive property tax. Hence, the property tax in these counties may be intrinsically (slightly) regressive. However, in general, if there were uniform administration of the property tax, it would be (slightly) progressive.

Professors Simkowitz and Logue (S-L) remind us that capital asset pricing is a simultaneous process. Their approach differs from traditional capital market models [3 and 6 ], where an investment's risk and return characteristics depend solely on a structural relationship between asset and market portfolio returns. Simkowitz and Logue argue that, within groups of homogeneous securities, investment returns are determined simultaneously and that market portfolio return as well as certain firm-related factors are exogeneous determinants of investment returns. This comment will, first, examine their basis for a simultaneous model and, then, look at presented empirical results.

We find that capital investment and net debt issuance of large firms are, on average, more sensitive to industry business cycles than those of small firms, in stark contrast to the effect of size on investment sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles. We theoretically examine the role of firm size on firms’ responses to industry shocks. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, we find that large firms exhibit greater sensitivity to industry cycles than small firms in their investment and net debt issuance only in industries with low cyclical variability of markups and production growth, high fixed cost intensity, high market-to-book, and high markups.

In this study, we investigate whether and how trust between board members and the CEO (board–CEO trust) affects the performance of mergers and acquisitions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that firms with higher levels of board–CEO trust exhibit poor M&A performance. High trust is associated with low acquisition announcement returns, long-term stock return performance, and post-deal operating performance. This negative effect of board–CEO trust is more pronounced among acquiring companies prone to agency problems. Our results suggest that, in the institutional setting of corporate boards, high trust can be too much of a good thing.

Investors may underdiversify their portfolios by overweighting securities in which they perceive an informational advantage or by underweighting securities to hedge risks outside the portfolio. We investigate underdiversification in institutional portfolio construction by examining the under/overweighting of industries in U.S. property–liability (PL) insurers’ equity portfolios. We find that PL insurers underweight both their own industry and highly correlated industries in their portfolios. This underweighting is larger for PL insurers exposed to higher underwriting risk. Although PL insurers have an informational advantage in investing in their peers, their underwriting risk drives them to underweight stocks in their industry.

The concept of a relationship between assumed risk and realized return is intuitively pleasing and has become widely accepted in the field of finance. Until recently this acceptance was anchored largely in what Hirschleifer [11] has called the “notorious fact” that stocks yield more in the long run than bonds and Hickman's finding [10] (since challenged by Fraine [7]) that over the years 1900–1943 the average ex post yield on publicly issued corporate debt was higher the lower the initial quality rating. However, with the advent of the capital asset pricing model of Sharpe [21], Lintner [16], and Mossin [19] the risk-return tradeoff concept has grown in importance and scope. The capital asset pricing model itself has weathered the years well, but has been theoretically and empirically revised, extended, and otherwise altered. Little remains of the original formulation except the proposition that in equilibrium more risk leads to more return--where “risk” for common stocks now means the nondiversified component as measured by the “Beta” coefficient of return volatility vis-à-vis the general market. As Modigliani and Pogue [18] observe after a review of the “more important” empirical tests of the capital asset pricing model: “Obviously, we cannot claim that the CAPM is absolutely right. On the other hand, the empirical tests do support the view that beta is a useful risk measure and that high beta stocks tend to be priced so as to yield correspondingly high rates of return.”

The trading of security options is one of the fastest growing and most dynamic areas of investment concern. When the Chicago Board of Trade's proposal to develop an exchange for trading option contracts is implemented, security option trading will become an even more important aspect of the investment world.