The objectives of this paper are to derive the relationship of the geometric mean of a distribution of positive values to the conventional first four moments — arithmetic mean, variance, absolute skewness, and absolute kurtosis — and to empirically evaluate certain approximations involving these four moments for estimating the geometric means of monthly and annual holding period returns for individual stocks and for portfolios. The geometric mean is shown to be positively related to the arithmetic mean and absolute skewness and negatively related to variance and absolute kurtosis. In the case of a normal distribution a very good approximation to the geometric mean is revealed to be a function of just the arithmetic mean and variance. Additionally, empirical evidence indicates that even though a number of the monthly and annual distributions deviate significantly from normality, the approximation involving only the mean and variance produces quite accurate estimates of the geometric means of these distributions.

Using a sample of 2,281 seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) from 1995 to 2004, we show that the marketing of securities is important to issuers. The number of managing underwriters for an SEO is negatively related to the offer price discount, especially when the relative offer size is large and the stock return volatility is high. Larger investor networks of comanaging underwriters also lower offer price discounts. We argue that the evidence is supportive of the marketing hypothesis: The underwriters’ marketing efforts can lower the offer price discount by shifting up and flattening the demand curve of an SEO.

Dissatisfaction occasionally has been expressed with traditional measures of duration for immunization on conceptual grounds. However, more elegant duration measures have not been found to be superior to the traditional ones in empirical tests of immunization efficacy. Under the assumption that the term structure of continuously compounded interest rates can be expressed as a polynomial, Chambers and Carleton (1981) demonstrate that the finite and noninstantaneous return of a default-free bond can be expressed as a vector product of a duration vector and a shift vector. This study derives immunization strategies from the model and tests them. The results of the portfolio tests indicate that the traditional duration approach of Macaulay provides enhanced immunization relative to maturity approaches or naive approaches. However, the duration vector approach produces further improvements.

We propose a link between market structure and the resulting market characteristics—tick size, bid-ask spreads, quote clustering, and market depth. We analyze transactions data of stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange, a dealer market. We conclude that market charateristics are endogenous to the market structure. The London dealer market does not have a mandated tick size, and it exhibits higher spreads, higher quote clusterings, and higher market depth than the NYSE auction market. Clustering of trade prices is similar in London and New York.

We propose a model that links a firm’s decision to go public with its subsequent takeover strategy. A private bidder does not know a firm’s true valuation, which affects its gain from a potential takeover. Consequently, a private bidder pursues a suboptimal restructuring policy. An alternative route is to complete an initial public offering (IPO) first. An IPO reduces valuation uncertainty, leading to a more efficient acquisition strategy, therefore enhancing firm value. We calibrate the model using data on IPOs and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The resulting comparative statics generate several novel qualitative and quantitative predictions, which complement the predictions of other theories linking IPOs and M&As. For example, the time it takes a newly public firm to attempt an acquisition of another firm is expected to increase in the degree of valuation uncertainty prior to the firm’s IPO and in the cost of going public, and it is expected to decrease in the valuation surprise realized at the time of the IPO. We find strong empirical support for the model’s predictions.

Many investors confine their mutual fund holdings to a single fund family either for simplicity or through restrictions placed by their retirement savings plan. We find evidence that mutual fund returns are more closely correlated within than between fund families. As a result, restricting investment to one fund family leads to a greater total portfolio risk than diversifying across fund families. We examine the sources of this increased correlation and find that it is due primarily to common stock holdings, but is also more generally related to families having similar exposures to economic sectors or industries. Fund families also show a propensity to focus on high or low risk strategies, which leads to a greater dispersion of risk across restricted investors. An investor considering adding an additional fund, either in the same family or outside the family, would need to believe the inside fund offered an extra 50 to 70 basis points to have the same Sharpe ratio.

I introduce two-factor discrete time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate to compare the relative performance of existing and alternative empiricial specificattions. I develop a nonlinear asymmmetric framework that allows for comparisons of non-nested models featuring conditional heteoskedasticity and sensitivity of the volatility process to interest rate levels. A new class of stochastic volatility models with asymmetric GARCH models. The existing models are rejected in favor of the newly proposed models because of the asymmetric drift of the short rate, and the presence of nonlinearity, asymmetry, GARCH, and level effects in its volatility. I test the predictive power of nested and non-nested models in capturing the stochastic behavior of the risk-free rate. Empirical evidence on three-, six-, and 12-month U.S. Treasury bills indicates but that two-factor stochastic volatility models are better than diffusion and GARCH models in forecasting the future level and volatility of interest rate changes.

The “information content of dividends” hypothesis (which emanates from the early work of Lintner [17] and Miller and Modigliani [18]) states that managers use dividend announcements to signal their beliefs about the prospects of the firm. Thus, an announcement of an increase in the dividend rate reflects management's belief that the firm's cash flows in the foreseeable future will be sufficiently high to sustain payment at the increased rate. Similarly, an announcement of a dividend decrease occurs only when management is extremely pessimistic about the probability that future cash flows will be sufficient to continue dividends at their present rate. The theoretical implication of the “information content” hypothesisis that the announcement of a dividend (or change in dividend) conveys information about management's assessment of the firm's prospects, that this information is different from other information provided by management, and this information may cause an immediate investor reaction, including, but not limited to, price changes.

This paper examines time-series forecast errors of expected returns from conditional and unconditional asset pricing models for portfolio and individual firm equity returns. A new result that increases predictive precision concerning model specification and forecasting is introduced. Conditional versions of the models generally produce higher mean squared errors than unconditional versions for step ahead prediction. This holds for individual firm data when the instruments are firm specific. Mean square forecast error decompositions indicate that the asset pricing models produce relatively unbiased predictions, but the variance is severe enough to ruin the step ahead predictive ability beyond that of a constant benchmark.

Lockups are agreements made by insiders of stock-issuing firms to abstain from selling shares for a specified period of time after the issue. Brav and Gompers (2003) suggest that lockups are a bonding solution to a moral hazard problem and not a signaling solution to an adverse selection problem. We challenge this conclusion theoretically and empirically. In our model, insiders of good firms signal by putting and keeping (locking up) their money where their mouths are. Our model yields two comparative statics: lockups should be shorter when a firm is i) more transparent and/or ii) more risky. Using a sample of 4,013 initial public offerings and 3,279 seasoned equity offerings between 1988 and 1999, we find empirical support for our theoretical predictions.

It is not uncommon on occasions such as this to talk about the shortcomings in the theory of Finance, and to emphasize how little progress has been made in answering the basic questions in Finance, despite enormous research efforts. Indeed, it is not uncommon on such occasions to attack our basic “mythodology,” particularly the “Ivory Tower” nature of our assumptions, as the major reasons for our lack of progress. Like a Sunday morning sermon, such talks serve many useful functions. For one, they serve to deflate our professional egos. For another, they serve to remind us that the importance of a contribution as judged by our professional peers (the gold we really work for) is often not closely aligned with its operational importance in the outside world. Also, such talks serve to comfort those just entering the field, by letting them know that there is much left to do because so little has been done. While such talks are not uncommon, this is not what my talk is about. Rather, my discussion centers on the positive progress made in the development of a theory of Finance using the continuous-time mode of analysis.

We provide new empirical evidence that U.S. expected growth and consumption volatility are closely related to the strong comovement in sovereign spreads. We rationalize these findings in an equilibrium model with recursive utility for credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The framework links a reduced-form default process with country-specific sensitivity to expected growth and macroeconomic uncertainty. Exploiting the high-frequency information in the CDS term structure across 38 countries, we estimate the model and find parameters consistent with preference for early resolution of uncertainty. Our results confirm the existence of time-varying risk premia in sovereign spreads as compensation for exposure to common U.S. macroeconomic risk.

We examine the stock market effect of changes in the composition of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Unlike S&P 500 listing studies, we find that the price and the trading volume of newly listed DJIA firms are unaffected. We attribute this result to a lack of index fund rebalancing, since index trading is limited for most of our sample period and index funds mimic the S&P 500, not the DJIA. Firms removed from the index, however, experience significant price declines. We consider information signaling, price pressure, imperfect substitutes, and information cost/liquidity explanations for these asymmetric findings. The evidence is consistent with the information cost/liquidity explanation, which holds that investors demand a premium for higher trading costs and for holding securities that have relatively less available information.

We study how media coverage impacts pricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) around the world. Higher media coverage in the pre-IPO period leads to lower IPO initial returns. The effect is mitigated in countries with better financial reporting quality, greater shareholder rights protection, and more stringent media censorship, and for IPOs “certified” by reputable intermediaries, while it is amplified in countries with higher levels of media penetration and media trust. Further, IPOs with higher pre-IPO media coverage have lower ex post price revision volatility. Our findings suggest that higher pre-IPO media coverage reduces information asymmetry among investors, leading to less underpriced IPOs.

This study documents substantial gains accuring to shareholders of discounted closed-end investment companies when these funds are reorganized to allow shareholders to obtain the market value of the fund's assets. The findings indicate that the discounts on closedend funds are real, i.e., they are not the sole result of inaccurate reporting of the fund's net asset value. The study also documents significant abnormal returns after the announcement of management-sponsored proposals to reorganize. This finding is inconsistent with the joint hypothesis of market efficiency and that the market model (as estimated) is the correct return bench mark for funds undertaking reorganization.

The purpose of this study is to measure and evaluate the objectives, risk, and return of 123 American mutual funds using monthly returns in the period 1960–1969. The paper considers five questions: How were stated fund objectives related to risk and return, as measured over the subsequent decade? How did funds of various objectives perform in terms of return and return-to-risk measures? Did average excess return increase with risk? Was the return-to-risk performance of the average mutual fund better or worse than that of the stock market as a whole? How did the slope of the mutual fund line of returns versus beta compare to the capital market line; i.e., did funds at one end of the risk spectrum appear to “outperform” those at the other end?

The shape of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) term structure conveys information about the price of variance risk rather than expected changes in the VIX, a rejection of the expectations hypothesis. The second principal component, SLOPE, summarizes nearly all this information, predicting the excess returns of synthetic Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 variance swaps, VIX futures, and S&P 500 straddles for all maturities and to the exclusion of the rest of the term structure. SLOPE’s predictability is incremental to other proxies for the conditional variance risk premia, economically significant, and inconsistent with standard asset pricing models.

Merger transactions involve differing degrees of change in capital structure and asset distribution. As a result, different forms of merger could have different effects on security values of the firms involved. Previous empirical studies primarily used samples that included all types of mergers. The present study examines the effect of one type of merger, pure stock exchange, on the values of the debt and equity of the firms involved.

Does more competition lead to more information production and greater investment efficiency? This question is largely unexplored in the finance literature. This article provides both a model and a series of extensive empirical tests. The model features a 2-stage Bayesian game in differentiated products market competition. We find that competition causes firms to acquire less information and investments to become more inefficient relative to a first-best case with the same market structure. Empirically, the panel regression analysis provides strong support for the theory and shows that investment is more efficient in concentrated industries.

Recent research has examined the performance of stocks held by U.S. mutual funds and found they realize abnormal returns. The result is significant as it stands in contrast to the general consensus from traditional performance studies that mutual funds do not possess superior information. Employing a unique dataset, I examine the performance of the monthly stock holdings and trades of a sample of Australian fund managers. When stock holdings are observable, performance measures can be constructed that are more precise than traditional fund manager performance measures. I find the stocks held by fund managers realize abnormal returns consistent with some stock selection ability across fund managers. Examining the performance of their individual trades, I find that the stocks they buy realize abnormal returns whereas for sell trades I find no evidence of abnormal returns. Overall, the results suggest fund managers have the ability to select stocks that realize positive abnormal returns thus providing out-of-sample support for similar recent findings for U.S. mutual funds.