An important piece of the capital structure puzzle has been missing, and it is not a contracting friction. It is recognition that managers do not have sufficient knowledge to optimize capital structure with any real precision. The literature critique in this paper i) identifies the conceptual sources of the main empirical failures of the leading models of capital structure and ii) shows how those failures can be repaired by taking into account imperfect managerial knowledge and several other factors. The analysis yields a compact set of principles for thinking about capital structure in an empirically supported way.

This study examines whether state-level economic conditions affect the liquidity of local firms. We find that liquidity levels of local stocks are higher (lower) when the local economy has performed well (poorly). This relation is stronger when local financing constraints are more binding, the local information environment is more opaque, and local institutional ownership levels and trading intensity are higher. Overall the evidence supports the notion that the geographical segmentation of U.S. capital markets generates predictable patterns in local liquidity.

We explore the link between open-market share repurchases (OMRs) and asymmetric information based on financial reporting quality and find that opaque firms experience positive abnormal returns of twice the magnitude of those of transparent firms. These significant differences remain after controlling for governance, earnings management, and firm characteristics. We document significantly positive long-run postannouncement returns for opaque firms, but not for transparent firms. We find that takeover activity and premiums rise with repurchase activity by opaque firms, which may explain some of the wealth effects. Our results suggest that asymmetric information plays an important role in the wealth effects around OMRs.

The literature examining analyst activity assumes that access to management is valued by analysts and their employers. We propose a readily observable measure of access: How often an analyst is invited to be among the first to ask questions in the Q&A session of an earnings conference call. These “early participants” are more successful in the labor market than peers from the same brokerage when their brokerages close. Our results show that access is valued by both sell-side and buy-side employers and reflects connectivity to management as well as analyst skill dimensions not captured in traditional measures of performance.

This paper evaluates how the relation between firms’ cash holdings and their acquisition decisions changes over macroeconomic cycles using a sample of 47,615 acquisitions from 36 countries between 1997 and 2014. Higher cash holdings and stronger macroeconomic conditions each increase the likelihood that a firm will make an acquisition. However, larger cash holdings decrease the sensitivity of acquisitions to macroeconomic factors, suggesting that cash holdings lower financing constraints during times when the cost of external finance is high. Announcement day abnormal returns for acquirers follow a consistent pattern: They decrease with acquirer cash holdings and with better macroeconomic conditions.

This paper studies the interaction among financing, entry, and exit decisions of firms in a competitive industry subject to aggregate uncertainty. In contrast to Fries, Miller, and Perraudin (1997), I do not assume that a firm in default leaves the industry immediately. The implications on the optimal leverage ratios and equilibrium credit spreads are discussed. By incorporating the effect of competition, I show that the model results in significantly higher credit spreads than those predicted by traditional single firm models. Dynamic capital structure strategies in a competitive industry are also examined. The model renders a number of empirical predictions regarding leverage ratios and credit spreads of firms in a competitive industry.

Previous studies in the valuation of American options apparently undervalue the right of early exercise. This study uses actual prices from the CBOE's S&P 100 option instead of model-generated values. Deviations from the theoretical put-call parity relationship are caused by the possibility of early exercise. These deviations are used to infer the value of early exercise. The actual value of early exercise is both statistically and economically significant. As expected from theoretical considerations, the value of early exercise for put options is greater than for call options.

This paper considers the problem of a financial institution that needs to hedge a stream of state-contingent cash flows while facing borrowing and short-sales restrictions. The study determines analytically the strategy that minimizes the initial cost of hedging the desired cash flow, which is also the upper bound on its market price, and shows that the impact of leverage constraints on the cost of hedging call and put options is significant and, therefore, the biases detected by tests of option pricing models may not represent arbitrage opportunities. The paper also shows that with credit limits, it is optimal to reduce the rate of trading; thus, these constraints need to be recognized when estimating the trading volume generated in replicating contingent payoffs such as portfolio insurance.

One of the innovative and successful new markets developed in recent years has been the registered exchange for the trading of option contracts. Key innovations provided by the option exchanges include the standardization of some contractual terms and the creation of a central clearing corporation to serve as issuer and obligor of each option contract, thus severing the contractual link between a specific option writer and buyer. These changes have facilitated the trading of existing call options in the secondary market and have provided increased liquidity, continuous public reporting of prices, better information on trading volume and open positions, and reduced transaction costs.

The growth rate of industrial electricity usage predicts future stock returns up to 1 year with an R2 of 9%. High industrial electricity usage today predicts low stock returns in the future, consistent with a countercyclical risk premium. Industrial electricity usage tracks the output of the most cyclical sectors. Our findings bridge a gap between the asset pricing literature and the business cycle literature, which uses industrial electricity usage to gauge production and output in real time. Industrial electricity growth compares favorably with traditional financial variables, and it outperforms Cooper and Priestley’s output gap measure in real time.

Capital market equilibrium has been extensively studied in the recent past, mostly in a mean-variance framework. In a perfect capital market with riskless assets and homogenous expectations among risk-averse investors, Sharpe and Lintner have shown that the efficient set of all investors could be described by only two portfolios (or mutual funds):

(1) the market portfolio

(2) the riskless asset.

Between 2009 and 2014, 75% of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) were announced and issued overnight, compared to 27% between 2000 and 2008. Overnight issuers obtain a higher SEO offer price because they experience more favorable pre-offer returns. Consistent with these favorable returns being due to the avoidance of pre-issue selling pressure, non-overnight issuers experience a 2.5% pre-issue stock-price decline that reverses within 7 days. This post-issue reversal is increasing in SEO offer size and bigger following large pre-issue price declines. In contrast, returns following overnight offerings are less positive and unrelated to SEO offer size or pre-issue returns.

Outside board chairs are more likely in firms that are smaller, have greater stock volatility and research and development intensity, and have a lower proportion of inside directors and less institutional ownership; they are also more likely when chief executive officers have shorter tenure and lower ownership. We also find that the existence of an outside chair is associated with geographical and industry norms. An outside chair is positively associated with firm performance, a finding robust to various estimation methods, including event study and multivariate analyses incorporating controls for endogeneity, as well as market and accounting measures of performance. We note, however, that the relationship between outside chair and firm performance varies with firm characteristics.

This paper investigates whether corporate payout policy is associated with insiders' share holdings and their tax preferences. We find that insider ownership and the implied tax liabilities are positively related to a firm's propensity to employ share repurchases. Firms with higher levels of or greater increases in insider ownership prefer stock repurchases to cash dividends. This relation is more significant in years when dividends were more tax disadvantaged relative to capital gains. Our findings are robust to the endogeneity of insider ownership and the inclusion of various control variables such as firm size, permanence of cash flows, growth opportunities, institutional ownership, and executive stock options. Overall, our results suggest that personal tax considerations from insiders affect corporate payout decisions.

We demonstrate improvements in predictive power when introducing spline functions to take account of highly nonlinear relationships between firm failure and leverage, earnings, and liquidity in a logistic bankruptcy model. Our results show that modeling excessive nonlinearities yields substantially improved bankruptcy predictions, on the order of 70%–90%, compared with a standard logistic model. The spline model provides several important and surprising insights into nonmonotonic bankruptcy relationships. We find that low-leveraged as well as highly profitable firms are riskier than those given by a standard model, possibly a manifestation of credit rationing and excess cash-flow volatility.

We use a novel database to study the timeliness of hedge fund monthly performance disclosures. Managers engage in strategic timing: poor monthly returns are reported with delay, sometimes clustered with stronger subsequent performance, suggestive of “performance smoothing.” We posit that propensity to delay could reveal operational risk and/or poor managerial quality. Consistent with this, a portfolio strategy that buys (sells) funds with historically timely (untimely) reporting delivers 3% annual-style-adjusted returns. Investor flows are lower following reporting delays, although there are potential benefits to managers from delaying reporting when performance is sufficiently poor. We conclude that timely disclosure is an important consideration for hedge fund managers and investors.

Straddles on individual stocks generally earn negative and significant returns. However, average at-the-money straddles from 3 days before an earnings announcement to the announcement date yield a highly significant 3.34% return. The positive returns on straddles indicate that investors underestimate the magnitude of uncertainty around earnings announcements. We find that positive straddle returns are more pronounced for smaller firms and firms with higher volatility, higher kurtosis, more volatile past earnings surprises, and less trading volume/higher transaction costs. This suggests that when firm signals are noisy, and/or when it is costlier to trade, investors underestimate the uncertainty associated with earnings announcements.

This paper studies the diversifiability of jumps in stock returns. It presents a multivariate time-series model of the stochastic process for an index and its component stocks that explicitly admits discrete common jumps. Maximum likelihood estimation for such a model is developed and applied to the daily Major Market Index and its component stocks for the period 1985 through 1990. The paper finds that Poisson-distributed jumps observed from both the index and its component stocks constitute nondiversifiable risk, implying that the standard assumption in option pricing that these jumps are not priced may be invalid.

According to the current state of knowledge in finance, the expected rate of return adjusted for risk is independent of the stock price. The basic proposition of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is that the expected rate of return for each security is a function of the “risk” of that security, and that this risk is measured by the contribution of the security to the variability of the market portfolio. The implication of the CAPM is that knowing the price of a security perse will add nothing to predicting its expected rate of return.

One of the most fundamental results in finance is the equivalence of a no-arbitrage condition to the existence of a pricing operator in markets without transaction costs (see Ross (1978)). Garman and Ohlson (1981) extended this to markets with proportional transaction costs. The current paper further extends this result to markets with realistic (and nonproportional) transaction costs. These costs include all investors' market-impact and short-borrowing costs, large investors' institutional commissions, and for small investors only the additional cost of retail commissions. They are functions of the value of the trade and have increasing, increasing, constant, and decreasing marginal rates, respectively, in that value. Garman and Ohlson showed that equilibrium prices in their notion of a “corresponding” cost-free market, plus a certain factor, prevail under equilibrium in markets with proportional transaction costs. The current paper extends this to realistic transaction costs and establishes the functional relation between this factor and the form of such costs.