We develop a positive behavioral portfolio theory (BPT) and explore its implications for portfolio constrution and security design. The optimal portfolios of BPT investors resemble combinations of bonds and lotterly tickets consistent with Friedman and Savage's (1948) observation. We compare the BPT efficient frontier with the mean-variance efficient frontier and show that, in general, the two frontiers do not coincide. Optimal BPT portfolios are also different from optimal CAPM portfolios. In particular, the CAPM two-fund separation does not hold in BPT. We present BPT in a single mental account version (BPT-SA) and a multiple mental account version (BPT-SA). BPT-SA investors integrate their portfolios into a single mental account, while BPT-SA investors segregate their portfolios into several mental accounts. BPT-SA portfolios resemble layered pyramids, where layers are associated with aspirations. We explore a two-layer portfolio where the low aspiration layer is designed to avoid poverth while the high aspiration layer is designed for a shot at riches.

We present large sample evidence on the performance of domestic and U.S. (foreign) bidder firms acquiring Canadian targets. Domestic bidders earn significantly positive average announcement period abnormal returns, while U.S. bidder returns are indistinguishable from zero. Measures of pre- and post-acquisition abnormal accounting performance are also consistent with a superior domestic bidder performance. Domestic bidder announcement returns are, on average, greatest for offers involving stock payment and for the bidders with the smallest equity size relative to the target. Neither direct foreign investment controls, horizontal product market relationships, nor acquisition propensities explain why domestic bidders outperform their U.S. competitors.

We investigate the long-run return performance of non-U.S. firms that raise equity capital in U.S. markets. Overall, between 1982 and 1996, our sample of 333 global equity offerings with U.S. depositary receipt (ADR) tranches from 35 countries in Asia, Latin America, and Europe under-perform local market benchmarks of comparable firms by 8%–15% over the three years following issuance. We show that differences in long-run returns are related to the scope and magnitude of investment barriers that induce segmentation of capital markets around the world. While companies from markets with significant investment barriers for foreigners that issue equity on major U.S. exchanges outperform their benchmarks, those from segmented markets that issue equity in the U.S. by way of Rule 144A private placements significantly under-perform. We also show that inter-market competition for order flow in the post-issuance period affects long-run return performance. Post-issuance buy-and-hold abnormal returns are most significantly and positively related to the offering's ability to generate a larger share of U.S. trading volume.

This paper addresses the bias associated with parametric measurement of timing skill based on monthly timer returns when timers can make daily timing decisions. Simulations suggest that the classic Henriksson-Merton parametric measure of timing skill is weak and biased downward when applied to the monthly returns of a daily timer. The paper proposes an adjustment that mitigates this problem without the need to collect daily timer returns. Four tests of timing skill, carried out on a sample of 558 mutual funds, show that very few funds exhibit statistically significant timing skill. More encompassing, the adjusted-FF3 test (based on the specification that incorporates both the proposed adjustment and the Fama-French three-factor model) is the least biased measure of timing skill among the four—it provides for a sharper inference regarding timing skill and helps mitigate biases associated with the choice of investment style.

It is well known that the pro forma performance of a sample of investment funds contains biases. These biases are documented in Brown, Goetzmann, Ibbotson, and Ross (1992) using mutual funds as subjects. The organization structure of hedge funds, as private and often offshore vehicles, makes data collection a much more onerous task, amplifying the impact of performance measurement biases. Theis paper reviews these biases in hedge funds. We also propose using funds-of-hedge funds to measure aggregate hedge fund performance, based on the idea that the investment experience of hedge fund investors can be used to estimate the performance of hedge funds.

Researchers are increasingly using data from the Nasdaq market to examine pricing behavior, market design, and other microstructure phenomena. The validity of any study that classifies trades as buys or sells depends on the accuracy of the classification method. Using a Nasdaq proprietary data set that identifies trade direction, we examine the validity of several trade classification algorithms. We find that the quote rule, the tick rule, and the Lee and Ready (1991) rule correctly classify 76.4%, 77.66%, and 81.05% of the trades, respectively. However, all classification rules have only a very limited success in classifying trades executed inside the quotes, introducing a bias in the accuracy of classifying large trades, trades during high volume periods, and ECN trades. We also find that extant algorithms do a mediocre job when used for calculating effective spreads. For Nasdaq trades, we propose a new and simple classification algorithm that improves over extant algorithms.

This paper examines the profitability of momentum strategies implemented on international stock market indices. Our results indicate statiscally significant evidence of momentum profits. The momentum profits arise mainly from time-series predictability in stock market indices—very little profit comes from predictability in the currency markets. We also find higher profits for momentum portfolios implemented on markets with higher volume in the previous period, indicating that return continuation is stronger following an increase in trading volume. This result confirms the informational role of volume and its applicability in technical analysis.

The popular finance literature describes the asset allocation decision as one of the most important factors in determining investment performance. This article reviews the implications of modern portfolio theory for the asset allocation decision and then examinesthe recommendations of some leading financial experts to see if they are consistent with theory.

This paper proposes a two-factor hazard rate model, in closd form, to price risky debt. The likelihood of default is captured by the firm's non-interest sensitive assets and default-free interest rates. The distinguishing features of the model are threefold. First, the impact of capital structure changes on credit spreads can be analyzed. Second, the model allows stochastic interest rates to impact current asset values as well as their evolution. Finally, the proposed model is in closed fom, enabling us to undertake comparative statics analysis, compute parameter deltas of the model, calibrate empirical credit spreads, and determine hedge positions. Credit spreads generated by our model are consistent with empirical observations.

We analyze the dividend behaviour of the aggregate stock market. We propose a model that assumes managers minimize the costs of adjustment associated with being away from their target dividend payout. The target is expressed as a function of lagged stock prices and permanent earnings, generalizing previous models of dividend behaviour. We present a new method for measuring unobserved permanent earning based on the Kalman filter. Our specification of dividend behaviour is strongly supported by the data relative to both alternative models and over time. We find significant evidence of dividends conveying information regarding unexpected positive changes in current permanent earnigs. We also find that both the speed of adjustment of dividends to target dividends and tests of signaling are sensitive to the specification of the model.

This study directly tests the ability of several competing methods to identify market buy and sell orders using intra-day quote and trade prices, and identifies factors that affect the accuracy of the methods. Lee and Ready's (1991) algorithm performs about the same as the tick test, but the performance of both methods is worse than expected. The results show that the use of either algorithm to classify trades can lead to significantly biased estimates of effective spreads and signed volume, but the tick test provides better estimates of effective spreads and signed volume than Lee and Ready's method.

In this paper, I examine survivorship bias in hedge fund returns by comparing two large databases. I find that the survivorship bias exceeds 2% per year. Results of survivorship bias by investment styles indicate that the biases are different across styles. I reconcile the conflicting results about survivorship bias in previous studies by showing that the two major hedge fund databases contain different amounts of dissolved funds. Empirical results show that poor performance is the main reason for a fund's disappearance. Furthermore, I find that there are significant differences in fund returs, inception date, net assets value, incentive fee, management fee, and investment styles forthe 465 common funds covered by both databases. Mismatching between reported returns andthe percentage change in NAVs can partially explain the differences in returns.

Since hedge funds specify significant lock-up periods, we investigate persistence in the performance of hedge funds using a multi-period framework in which the likelihood of observing persistence by chance is lower than in the traditional two-period framework. Under the null hypothesis of no manager skill (no persistence), the theoretical distribution of observing wins or losses follows a binormial distribution. We test this hypothesis using the traditional two-period framework and compare the findings with the results obtained using our multi-period framework. We examine whether persistence is sensitive to the length of return measurement intervals by using quarterly, half-yearly and yearly returns. We find maximum persistence at the quarterly horizon indicating that presistence among hedge fund managers is short term in nature.

We distinguish between horizontal and vertical joint ventures, and find correspondingly different valuation effects. Horizontal joint ventures create synergistic gains that are shared by the partners. In contrast, vertical joint ventures generate gains only for suppliers. This is similar to the patter we find for simple contracts, which suggests economic similiarities between vertical joint ventures and contracts. Analysing firms' choices between these contracting options, we find that firms choose vertical joint ventures over simple contracts when potential hold-up problems are severe and when suppliers face finance constraints. The results d not support a risk-sharing motive for joint ventures.

I introduce two-factor discrete time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate to compare the relative performance of existing and alternative empiricial specificattions. I develop a nonlinear asymmmetric framework that allows for comparisons of non-nested models featuring conditional heteoskedasticity and sensitivity of the volatility process to interest rate levels. A new class of stochastic volatility models with asymmetric GARCH models. The existing models are rejected in favor of the newly proposed models because of the asymmetric drift of the short rate, and the presence of nonlinearity, asymmetry, GARCH, and level effects in its volatility. I test the predictive power of nested and non-nested models in capturing the stochastic behavior of the risk-free rate. Empirical evidence on three-, six-, and 12-month U.S. Treasury bills indicates but that two-factor stochastic volatility models are better than diffusion and GARCH models in forecasting the future level and volatility of interest rate changes.

While theoretical models predict a decrease in the cost of capital from depositary receipt offerings, the economic benefits of this liberalization have been difficult to quantify, Using a sample of 126 firms from 32 countries, we document a significant decline of 42% in the cost of capital. In addition, we show the decline is driven by the ability of U.S. investors to span the foreign security prior to cross-listing. Our findings support eh hypothesis that financial market liberalizations have significant economic benefits.

We examine the impact of merger announcements on protfolios of acquiring firm and target firm common stock from 1919 to 1930. despite vast changes in the economic and regulatory environment, overall acquisition profitability has remained remarkably constant over the last 70 and 80 years. Target firm shareholders in the 1920s clearly gained from takeovers, averaging abnormal retruns in excess of 15%, while acquiring firm shareholders essentially broke even. synergistic or monopolistic gains from consolidation were minimal. Unlike the more recent experience, target firm and acquiring firm abnormal returns were largely unaffected by the mode of acquisition, the means of financing, or the degree of industrial relatedness.

This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by reexamining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick(1992), who detected evidence of in-sample predictability in international equity and foreign exchange markets using VAR methodology for a variety of countries from 1981–1989. The VAR predictions are significantly biased in most out-of-sample forecasts and are conclusively outperformed by a simple benchmark model at horizons of up to six months. This remains true even after corrections for small sample bias and the introduction Bayesian parameter restrictions. A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that the data are unlikely to have been generated by a stable VAR. This conclusion is supported by an examination of structural break statistics. We show that implied long-horizon statistics calculated from the VAR parameter estimates are very unreliable.

The paper examines the determinats of contract terms on bank revolving credit agreements (revolvers) of medium/large publicly traded companies. We model the duration (maturity), secured status, and pricing decisions within a simultaneous decision framework, thereby overcoming the biased and inconsistent estimates in prior single equations studies of debt contract terms. We find strong interrelationaships between contract terms with significant bi-directorinal relationships between duration and secure status and between the all-in-spread and commitment fees and aunidirectional relationship from both duration and secured status to all-in-spread. We also illustrate how several single equation studies of contract terms draw incorrect conclusions because of their (inappropriate) assumption that other contract therms and leverage were exogenous. Finally, our results support the hypothesis that the setting of contract terms plays and important role in alleviating contracting problems.

We investigate the value of active mutual fund management by examining the stockholdings and trades of mutual funds. We fine that stocks widely held by funds do not outperform other stocks. However, stocks purchased by funds have significantly higher returns than stocks they sell—this is true for large stocks as well as small stocks, and for value stocks as well as growth stocks. We find that growth-oriented funds exhibit better stock selection skills than income-oriented funds. Finally, we find only weak evidence that funds with the best past performance have better stock-picking skills than funds with the worst past performance.