For 175 difficult-to-forecast persistent deep slab avalanches, weather data were obtained from Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models produced by Environment Canada. The focus was to determine critical parameters and thresholds for avalanche forecasting from GEM and compare them with weather station data analyzed in Part I (Conlan and Jamieson, this issue). The high-resolution GEM-limited-area model (2.5 km resolution) forecasted higher median precipitation amounts than both the lower-resolution GEM15 (15 km resolution) and weather stations within a small dataset. Air temperatures were lower for both weather models compared with the weather station data, likely because of elevation differences. A multivariate classification tree created with GEM15 data correctly classified 29 of 36 avalanches by their primary cause-of-release, using a primary split of modelled solar warming of 5.9°C, 10 cm into the snowpack. For all 175 avalanches, GEM15 forecasted significantly less precipitation than observed at the weather stations, particularly with multi-day cumulative amounts. The majority of GEM15 surface wind speeds were between 0 and 10 km h−1, producing negligible wind loading amounts. The parameter values may be helpful for predicting future persistent deep slab avalanches. However, GEM output is not always representative of field conditions and should be used in conjunction with other sources.

The ablation areas of debris-covered glaciers typically consist of a complex mosaic of surface features with contrasting processes and rates of mass loss. This greatly complicates glacier response to climate change, and increases the uncertainty of predictive models. In this paper we present a series of high-resolution DEMs and repeat lake bathymetric surveys on Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, to study processes and patterns of mass loss on a Himalayan debris-covered glacier in unprecedented detail. Most mass loss occurs by melt below supraglacial debris, and melt and calving of ice cliffs (backwasting). Although ice cliffs cover only ~5% of the area of the lower tongue, they account for 40% of the ablation. The surface debris layer is subject to frequent re-distribution by slope processes, resulting in large spatial and temporal differences in debris-layer thickness, enhancing or inhibiting local ablation rates and encouraging continuous topographic inversion. A moraine-dammed lake on the lower glacier tongue (Spillway Lake) underwent a period of rapid expansion from 2001 to 2009, but later experienced a reduction of area and volume as a result of lake level lowering and sediment redistribution. Rapid lake growth will likely resume in the near future, and may eventually become up to 7 km long.

Microorganisms were the earliest inhabitants on our planet that occupy nearly every environment, and play a major role in biogeochemical cycles. Despite their global importance, there remains a paucity of data on microbial responses to long-term environmental and climatic changes. Microorganisms are known to be immured in glacial ice, but no high-resolution temporal records of their density exist, owing in large part to the lack of appropriate clean methodology that allows for rapid analysis of samples over depth. We describe a clean and time efficient method that can produce a high-temporal resolution record of prokaryotic density archived in ice cores. The method combines acquisition of discrete samples using a continuous ice-core melting system coupled with flow cytometry (FCM) of DNA-stained samples. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of the FCM measurement technique in terms of specificity, precision, accuracy and minimum detection limits. Examples from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core are included to show the efficacy of the method.

This paper is the third (Paper III) in a set of studies of the errors involved in the estimate of ice thickness and ice volume. Here we present a methodology to estimate the error in the calculation of the volume of an ice mass from an ice-thickness DEM. We consider the two main error sources: the ice-thickness error at each DEM grid point and the uncertainty in the boundary delineation. To accurately estimate the volume error due to the error in thickness of the DEM, it is crucial to determine the degree of correlation among the ice-thickness errors at the grid points. We find that the two-dimensional integral range, which represents the equivalent area of influence of each independent value, allows estimation of the equivalent number of independent values of error within the DEM. Hence, it provides an easy way to obtain the volume error resulting from the uncertainty in ice thickness of a DEM. We show that the volume error arising from the uncertainty in boundary delineation, often neglected in the literature, can be of the same order of magnitude as the volume error resulting from ice-thickness errors. We illustrate our methodology through the case study of Werenskioldbreen, Svalbard.

For the Andes Cordillera, where observed mass-balance records are sparse, long-term glacier velocity measurements potentially represent a useful tool for assessing glacier health. Utilising manual and automatic feature-tracking techniques applied to Corona, Landsat and ASTER satellite imagery, this paper presents surface velocity fluctuations for Glaciar Universidad between 1967 and 1969, and 1985 and 2015, the longest such time series available for the Andes Cordillera, outside Patagonia. This time series reveals an increase in the surface velocities of the main glacier trunk between 1967 and 1987 (~90%) followed by a deceleration between 1987 and 2015 (~80%), with ice velocities observed between 2014 and 2015 possibly representing a 48 a low. In response to the surface velocity fluctuations, the glacier front advanced between 1985 and 1992 (cumulative change of 137 ± 14 m), and again to a lesser magnitude during the 1996–98 and 2004–08 periods. Although having exhibited possible surge behaviour during the 1940s, the synchrony of the glacier changes presented for Glaciar Universidad with those reported for nearby glaciers, suggests that this glacier is responding to climatic trends. If the above scenario is true, the results indicate a general pattern of increasingly negative glacier mass-balance conditions since the late 1980s.

Documenting past changes in the East Antarctic surface mass balance is important to improve ice core chronologies and to constrain the ice-sheet contribution to global mean sea-level change. Here we reconstruct past changes in the ratio of surface mass balance (SMB ratio) between the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and Dome Fuji (DF) East Antarctica ice core sites, based on a precise volcanic synchronization of the two ice cores and on corrections for the vertical thinning of layers. During the past 216 000 a, this SMB ratio, denoted SMBEDC/SMBDF, varied between 0.7 and 1.1, being small during cold periods and large during warm periods. Our results therefore reveal larger amplitudes of changes in SMB at EDC compared with DF, consistent with previous results showing larger amplitudes of changes in water stable isotopes and estimated surface temperature at EDC compared with DF. Within the last glacial inception (Marine Isotope Stages, MIS-5c and MIS-5d), the SMB ratio deviates by up to 0.2 from what is expected based on differences in water stable isotope records. Moreover, the SMB ratio is constant throughout the late parts of the current and last interglacial periods, despite contrasting isotopic trends.

The study of glaciers and ice caps in remote and cloudy regions remains difficult using current remote sensing tools. Here the potential of stereo radargrammetry (SRG) with RADARSAT-2 Wide Ultra-Fine images is explored for DEM extraction, elevation changes and mass-balance calculations on Barnes Ice Cap (Nunavut, Canada). Over low-relief terrain surrounding Barnes, a vertical precision of ~7 m (1σ confidence level) is measured, as well as an average vertical bias of ~4 m. Moreover, we show that the C-band penetration depth over the ice cap is insignificant at this time of the year (i.e. late ablation season). This is likely due to a wet surface and the presence of superimposed ice that leads to a surface radar response. Comparing the SRG DEMs with other datasets, an historical glacier-wide mass balance of −0.52 ± 0.19 m w.e. a−1 is estimated for 1960–2013, whereas it decreases to −1.06 ± 0.84 m w.e. a−1 between 2005 and 2013. This clear acceleration of mass loss is in agreement with other recent studies. Given its all-weather functionality and its possible use without ground control points, the RADARSAT-2 SRG technology represents an appropriate alternative for glacier monitoring in cloudy and remote regions.

The spatial pattern and morphometry of bedforms and their relationship to sediment thickness have been analysed in the Marguerite Bay Palaeo-ice stream Trough, western Antarctic Peninsula. Over 17 000 glacial landforms were measured from geophysical datasets, and sediment thickness maps were generated from acoustic sub-bottom profiler data. These analyses reveal a complex bedform pattern characterised by considerable spatial diversity, influenced heavily by the underlying substrate. The variability in length and density of mega-scale lineations indicates an evolving bedform signature, whereby landforms are preserved at different stages of maturity. Lineation generation and attenuation is associated with regions of thick, soft till where deformation was likely to be the greatest. The distribution of soft till and the localised extent of grounding-zone wedges (GZWs) indicate a dynamic sedimentary system characterised by considerable spatio-temporal variability in sediment erosion, transport and deposition. Formation of GZWs on the outer shelf of Marguerite Trough, within the error range of the radiocarbon dates, requires large sediment fluxes (upwards of 1000 m3 a−1 (m grounding line width)−1), and a >1 m thick mobile till layer, or rapid basal sliding velocities (upwards of 6 km a−1).

Using a field emission scanning electron microscope and energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (FESEM−EDS), individual insoluble dust particles in ice cores recovered from the northern (Dunde), western (Muztagata) and south-eastern (Palong-Zangbo) Tibetan Plateau were analysed in order to reveal the mineralogical and morphological characteristics of the analogue of long-range transported Asian dust. The results reveal that the dust particles are mainly composed of quartz (17–36%, number abundance), clay (37–48%) and feldspar (12–18%). Illite and chlorite are the dominant clay species, while kaolinite is rarely observed. For the three sites, regional differences in the mineral assemblages are significant, in particular the abundance of quartz, chlorite and muscovite species, reflecting the regional provenance of these dust particles and the climatic regime in their source areas. Oxide ratios in clays indicate different weathering strengths of the particles in their source regions, with a higher K2O/(SiO2 + Al2O3) in the western and northern Tibetan Plateau. The individual particles have modes of 1.48 and 1.53 in the aspect ratio and circularity distribution respectively. No significant relationship between aspect ratio and circularity was found. Quartz and feldspar particles have a narrow aspect ratio distribution. Muscovite particles have the coarsest grain size, while chlorite particles have the finest.

Windpumping has been identified as a process that could potentially enhance sublimation of surface snow at high forcing frequency and spawn air movement deeper in firn at lower frequencies. We performed an experiment to examine the relationship between high-frequency wind and pressure measurements within the top meter of an alpine snowpack and compared experimental results with two theoretical predictions. We find that both theoretical predictions underestimate high-frequency perturbation pressure attenuation with depth in the near-surface snowpack and the discrepancy between theory and measurement increases with perturbation pressure frequency. The impact of this result for near-surface snow is that potential enhanced sublimation will occur over a shallower snow depth than these two theories predict. Correspondingly, interstitial air mixing at depth in firn will be driven by lower frequencies than these two theories predict. While direct measurement of these energy-rich lower frequencies is beyond the scope of this paper, stationary pressure measurements validate the presence of a pressure field that could drive near-surface circulation.

We present the first snow/ice chemistry and ice radar results ever collected from South Georgia as part of an initial reconnaissance with the ultimate goal of assessing the feasibility of a South Georgia ice core to reconstruct past climate in the South Atlantic. South Georgia is well situated to capture a record of past atmospheric chemical composition over the South Atlantic and of past variability in the position and intensity of the austral westerlies. The question is how well preserved an ice core record can be recovered from a region experiencing accelerated melting? The results presented in this paper offer only a preliminary step in determining the feasibility of future deep ice coring on South Georgia. However, this initial reconnaissance does provide some basic information including: the chemistry of the atmosphere over South Georgia relative to other Southern Hemisphere ice coring sites; the potential for preservation of ‘annual layers’ in old ice on the island; a possible age for deep ice in the region; and an estimate of glacier health in the lower elevation regions of the island.

Glaciers and ice caps around the world are changing quickly, with surge-type behaviour superimposed upon climatic forcing. Here, we study Iceland's second largest ice cap, Langjökull, which has both surge- and non-surge-type outlets. By differencing elevation change with surface mass balance, we estimate the contribution of ice dynamics to elevation change. We use DEMs, in situ stake measurements, regional reanalyses and a mass-balance model to calculate the vertical ice velocity. Thus, we not only compare the geodetic, modelled and glaciological mass balances, but also map spatial variations in glacier dynamics. Maps of emergence and submergence velocity successfully highlight the 1998 surge and subsequent quiescence of one of Langjökull's outlets by visualizing both source and sink areas. In addition to observing the extent of traditional surge behaviour (i.e. mass transfer from the accumulation area to the ablation area followed by recharge of the source area), we see peripheral areas where the surge impinged upon an adjacent ridge and subsequently retreated. While mass balances are largely in good agreement, discrepancies between modelled and geodetic mass balance may be explained by inaccurate estimates of precipitation, saturated adiabatic lapse rate or degree-day factors. Nevertheless, the study was ultimately able to investigate dynamic surge behaviour in the absence of in situ measurements during the surge.

Mega-scale glacial lineations (MSGLs) are highly elongate subglacial bedforms associated with ice streaming. However, the link between MSGLs and rapid ice flow is largely qualitative, and there have been few attempts to quantitatively link their formation to ice flow characteristics (e.g. ice velocity, thickness, basal shear stress). We take measurements of MSGLs from a palaeo-ice stream that once occupied Marguerite Trough, Antarctic Peninsula and explore a range of possible correlations with ice dynamics generated from an ensemble of numerical modelling experiments that reproduce the deglaciation of the ice stream. Our results confirm that high mean ice velocities and a weak bed correlate with longer MSGLs. Furthermore, the height of MSGLs are low (2–3 m) where modelled basal shear stress is low, but their height tends to be higher and more variable where basal shear stress is larger. The mean density of MSGLs decreases as ice flux increases. Our analysis further suggests that the length of MSGLs is a function of basal ice velocity and time. Although our data/model correlations confirm the importance of ice velocity in MSGL formation, a significant challenge remains if we are to employ MSGLs as a quantifiable measure of past ice stream velocity.

Glacier surface mass-balance measurements on Greenland started more than a century ago, but no compilation exists of the observations from the ablation area of the ice sheet and local glaciers. Such data could be used in the evaluation of modelled surface mass balance, or to document changes in glacier melt independently from model output. Here, we present a comprehensive database of Greenland glacier surface mass-balance observations from the ablation area of the ice sheet and local glaciers. The database spans the 123 a from 1892 to 2015, contains a total of ~3000 measurements from 46 sites, and is openly accessible through the PROMICE web portal (http://www.promice.dk). For each measurement we provide X, Y and Z coordinates, starting and ending dates as well as quality flags. We give sources for each entry and for all metadata. Two thirds of the data were collected from grey literature and unpublished archive documents. Roughly 60% of the measurements were performed by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS, previously GGU). The data cover all regions of Greenland except for the southernmost part of the east coast, but also emphasize the importance of long-term time series of which there are only two exceeding 20 a. We use the data to analyse uncertainties in point measurements of surface mass balance, as well as to estimate surface mass-balance profiles for most regions of Greenland.

Mass losses originating from supraglacial ice cliffs at the lower tongues of debris-covered glaciers are a potentially large component of the mass balance, but have rarely been quantified. In this study, we develop a method to estimate ice cliff volume losses based on high-resolution topographic data derived from terrestrial and aerial photogrammetry. We apply our method to six cliffs monitored in May and October 2013 and 2014 using four different topographic datasets collected over the debris-covered Lirung Glacier of the Nepalese Himalayas. During the monsoon, the cliff mean backwasting rate was relatively consistent in 2013 (3.8 ± 0.3 cm w.e. d−1) and more heterogeneous among cliffs in 2014 (3.1 ± 0.7 cm w.e. d−1), and the geometric variations between cliffs are larger. Their mean backwasting rate is significantly lower in winter (October 2013–May 2014), at 1.0 ± 0.3 cm w.e. d−1. These results are consistent with estimates of cliff ablation from an energy-balance model developed in a previous study. The ice cliffs lose mass at rates six times higher than estimates of glacier-wide melt under debris, which seems to confirm that ice cliffs provide a large contribution to total glacier melt.

A new Rapid Access Ice Drill (RAID) will penetrate the Antarctic ice sheets in order to create borehole observatories and take cores in deep ice, the glacial bed and bedrock below. RAID is a mobile drilling system to make multiple long, narrow boreholes in a single field season in Antarctica. RAID is based on a mineral exploration-type rotary rock-coring system using threaded drill pipe to cut through ice using reverse circulation of a non-freezing fluid for pressure-compensation, maintenance of temperature and removal of ice cuttings. Near the bottom of the ice sheet, a wireline latching assembly will enable rapid coring of ice, the glacial bed and bedrock below. Once complete, boreholes will be kept open with fluid, capped and available for future down-hole measurement of temperature gradient, heat flow, ice chronology and ice deformation. RAID is designed to penetrate up to 3300 m of ice and take cores in <200 hours, allowing completion of a borehole and coring in ~10 d at each site. Together, the rapid drilling capability and mobility of the system, along with ice-penetrating imaging methods, will provide a unique 3-D picture of interior and subglacial features of the Antarctic ice sheets.

Rapidly-flowing ice streams are an important mechanism through which ice sheets lose mass, and much work has been focussed on elucidating the processes that increase or decrease their velocity. Recent work using standard inverse methods has inferred previously-unrecognised regular patterns of high basal shear stress (‘sticky spots’ >200 kPa) beneath a number of ice streams in Antarctica and Greenland, termed ‘traction ribs’. They appear at a scale intermediate between smaller ribbed moraines and much larger mega-ribs observed on palaeo-ice sheet beds, but it is unclear whether they have a topographic expression at the bed. Here, we report observations of rib-like bedforms from DEMs along palaeo-ice stream beds in western Canada that resemble both the pattern and dimensions of traction ribs. Their identification suggests that traction ribs may have a topographic expression that lies between, and partly overlaps with, ribbed moraines and much larger mega-ribs. These intermediate-sized bedforms support the notion of a ribbed bedform continuum. Their formation remains conjectural, but our observations from palaeo-ice streams, coupled with those from modern ice masses, suggest they are related to wave-like instabilities occurring in the coupled flow of ice and till and modulated by subglacial meltwater drainage. Their form and pattern may also involve glaciotectonism of subglacial sediments.

To better understand the recent wide-scale changes in glacier coverage, we created and compared two glacier inventories covering eastern Nepal, based on aerial photographs (1992) and high-resolution Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) imagery (2006–10). The ALOS-derived inventory contained 1034 debris-free and 256 debris-covered glaciers with total and average areas of 440.2 ± 33.3 and 0.42 km2 and 1074.4 ± 206.4 and 4.19 km2, respectively. We found that the debris-free glaciers have lost 11.2% (0.7 ± 0.1% a−1) of their area since 1992, whereas the number of glaciers increased by 5% because of fragmentation. The area change was significantly correlated by simple linear regression with minimum elevation (r = 0.30), maximum elevation (r = −0.18), altitudinal range (r = −0.50), glacier area (r = −0.62) and mean slope (r = 0.16), confirming that larger glaciers tended to lose a larger area (but a smaller percentage) than smaller glaciers. The intra-regional analysis of the glacier changes clearly showed higher shrinkage rates in the western massifs compared with the eastern massifs. In addition, 61 small glaciers covering an area of 2.4 km2 have completely disappeared since 1992.

While the terms ‘glacier’ and ‘ice cap’ have distinct morphological meanings, no easily defined boundary or transition distinguishes one from the other. Despite this, the exponent of the power law function relating volume to surface area differs sharply for glaciers and ice caps, suggesting a fundamental distinction beyond a smoothly transitioning morphology. A standard percolation technique from statistical physics is used to show that valley glaciers are in fact differentiated from ice caps by an abrupt geometric transition. The crossover is a function of increasing glacier thickness, but it owes its existence more to the nature of the underlying bedrock topography than to specifics of glacier mechanics: the crossover is caused by a switch from directed flow that is constrained by surrounding bedrock topography to unconstrained radial flow of thicker ice that has subsumed the topography. The crossover phenomenon is nonlinear and rapid so that few if any glaciers will have geometries or dynamics that blend the two extremes. The exponents of scaling relationships change abruptly at the crossover from one regime to another; in particular, the volume/area scaling exponent will switch from γ = 1.375 for glaciers to γ = 1.25 for ice caps, with few, if any, ice bodies having exponents that fall between these values.

We present results of a regional comparative study of surface mass changes from 2004 to 2008 based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), The Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and CHINARE observations over the Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf system (LAS). Estimation of the ICESat mass change rates benefitted from the density measurements along the CHINARE traverse and a spatial density adjustment method for reducing the effect of spatial density variations. In the high-elevation inland region, a positive trend was estimated from both ICESat and GRACE data, which is in line with the CHINARE accumulation measurements. In the coastal region, there were areas with high level accumulations in both ICESat and GRACE trend maps. In many high flow-speed glacier areas, negative mass change rates may be caused by dynamic ice flow discharges that have surpassed the snow accumulation. Overall, the mass change rate estimate in the LAS of 2004–2008 from the GRACE, ICESat and CHINARE data is 5.41 ± 4.59 Gt a−1, indicating a balanced to slightly positive mass trend. Along with other published results, this suggests that a longer-term positive mass trend in the LAS may have slowed in recent years.