This paper is concerned with the current and future financing of long-term care (LTC). This is defined as the provision of nursing and care services to those adults who are incapable, to some degree, of looking after themselves, but excluding short-term convalescent care. The current position is summarised, covering the demand and supply of LTC, how it is currently financed, new developments and consumer attitudes. The paper then goes on to consider future developments. Possible patterns of future demand, covering likely needs and costs are given. Consideration is then given as to how future demand may be financed.

The paper discusses some of the initiatives that might be undertaken to encourage proper planning by both the State and individuals and concludes that the actuarial profession should have a significant role to play in communicating the issues and evaluating solutions.

With the financial services industries in the member countries of the European Union coming under increasing attention resulting in relaxation of cross border controls, this paper addresses some pensions matters in this European context and how they may relate to the U.K. The main theme of the paper is the book reserve approach to pensions provision. Details of the German book reserve method are provided before developing possible ways in which this philosophy could be introduced into the U.K. These possibilities are assessed and consideration given to the effect they may have on the economy, commerce, the pension fund industry and, not least, the actuarial profession in the U.K.

The paper proposes a new way of assessing an investment manager's skill in the day-to-day management of portfolios. The authors argue that traditional investment performance measurement techniques, whilst appropriate for many purposes, do not provide the insights necessary to judge the skill of investment managers. To judge manager skill, it is necessary to consider the activity within the portfolio in terms of the purchases, sales and trades, and to determine the value added by that activity. The paper sets out a framework by which this analysis can be carried out and, by means of examples, indicates how the results can be interpreted. The paper also explores briefly a number of other issues such as the qualitative aspects of performance monitoring. In writing the paper, the concept of risk in various guises was never far from the authors' minds, and it is true to say that the meaning of risk in the context of assessing manager skill lies at the very heart of the paper.

The paper first considers concepts of profit in economics, accountancy and the law relating to financial reporting. It then considers the nature of life assurance business and suggests the accounting standards appropriate to life assurance companies which would ordinarily result in accounts showing a ‘true and fair view’. An analysis of the E. C. Insurance Accounts Directive shows that there may be circumstances where its provisions conflict with such standards.

The paper considers each of the statutory solvency method, embedded value reporting and the accruals method, and the author finds all of them to be inconsistent with accounting standards and the requirements of the Directive.

The author puts forward the ‘Earned Profits’ method, which applies accountancy principles in determining assets and liabilities and takes credit for outstanding revenue matching acquisition costs. This approach is then used in analysing the value of a life assurance company and measuring the rate of return on capital.

A method of graduation by mathematical formula is extended to cover the simultaneousgraduation of more than one comparable experience and is applied to the recent. U.K. mortality experience of smoking and non-smoking assured lives.

This paper considers cross-validation as an objective and risk-based method for selecting the smoothing parameter in a non-parametric graduation. In addition, the relative merits of two kernel estimators are compared in the context of mortality graduation. Finally, it is well known in the statistical literature that the use of theoretically superior kernels is not as important as the choice of bandwidth. Our results support this conclusion, suggesting that the focus on such weights is misguided in the actuarial textbooks on moving weighted averages.

This paper explores the benefits and limitations of a valuation framework as a management tool within a general insurance operation. Two models are presented, one a model of the firm and the other an option valuation model, which together create a robust framework that enables management to analyse how different decisions would affect both the overall firm value and its distribution amongst investors. The model of the firm assists in understanding how key factors such as the momentum of a general insurance portfolio and the allocation of scarce resources affect the value of the firm. The second model, an option framework for corporate liabilities, highlights the critical distinction between the value of the firm and the value of investors' claims on the firm.

The paper sets out the method required to be followed when estimating reserves for a Company or a Lloyd's Syndicate which has accepted reinsurance treaties that have given rise to catastrophe losses, sufficiently large to upset the normal development pattern and to affect the gross account quite differently from the net account. The losses may be caused by single factors such as aircraft crashes or oil rig disasters, or by the aggregation of claims resulting from a windstorm or an earthquake. The paper discusses two possible approaches to estimation of the gross losses; via exposure totals or via statistical modelling techniques.

This paper seeks to explain key characteristics of the New Zealand life insurance industry, in particular the important role played by overseas-controlled mutual companies, and the dearth of regulation relative to other countries. It proposes that the dominance of mutual companies reflects the historical development of the New Zealand life insurance market. It also examines how agency theory may help to explain how the market has come to be dominated by mutual companies, and suggests that the unregulated nature of the life insurance industry may reflect the New Zealand government's historical role of direct intervention in the market through the Government Life Office. Further light on this issue is shed by the economic theory of regulation. This theory suggests that cartelisation and reinsurance may help to explain the existence of the unregulated insurance market in New Zealand. The paper concludes that many socio-economic and historical reasons may account for the distinctive features of the New Zealand life insurance industry. The possibilities are presented in this paper as a stimulus for further insurance markets-based research.

This paper examines international developments in life insurance generally accepted accounting practice (GAAP) for policy valuation and profit recognition in four major Anglo-American markets—the U.K., Australia, the U.S.A. and Canada. Each valuation method examined has its advantages and disadvantages with respect to the needs of preparers and users of the annual corporate reports of life insurance companies. The paper documents that the statutory basis and U.S. GAAP are considered to have substantive deficiencies. In contrast, the U.K. accruals method, the Australian margin on services method and Canadian GAAP have much to commend them, particularly with regard to their flexibility to accommodate valuation adjustments for unexpected events. Nevertheless, from the preparers' point of view, the systems which would have to be developed to facilitate the U.K. accruals and Australian margin on services methods would be difficult and costly to implement. Profit reporting under Canadian GAAP is also sensitive to changes in actuarial reserving assumptions. The authors conclude that, since national preferences in actuarial and accounting practices are inevitable and because the product-market structures of life insurance markets are so distinctive, international harmonisation of life office GAAP is unlikely to occur for a very long time.

The 1993 Jubilee Lecture considered two fundamental questions addressed in the report of the Pension Law Review Committee: when an employee joins an occupational pension scheme, what should the law consider to be the fundamental pension promise; and how should that promise be protected? The factors affecting the employee's expectations are examined in the light of the pension promise, and the conclusion drawn that certain expectations relating to accrued rights should be protected by law, although the employer should be able to control its financial commitments as to future service. The status of surplus, in both an ongoing scheme and in the event of a wind-up, is also considered, and recommendations made as to the use of a surplus if not already dealt with by the scheme rules. The two principal forms of protection for the pension promise which were recommended by the Pension Law Review Committee are discussed; firstly, the introduction of a minimum solvency standard, backed up by tighter rules for the prompt payment of contributions and by enhanced monitoring and reporting requirements for scheme auditors and actuaries; and secondly, the setting up of a statutory compensation fund to cover a deficit in the event of fraud or theft, to be financed by a post-event levy on schemes.

This note continues a regular series on mortality rates, previously relating to Great Britain, but now to the whole of the United Kingdom. Mortality experienced in the years 1990 to 1992 is shown by five-year age groups, and comparisons are made for broad age groups, on a standardised basis, with mortality in earlier years.

Introduction of the new Total Return Indices. New Industrial Classification system introduced at the beginning of 1994, integrating the previously separate FT–Actuaries Share Indices and (more detailed) Stock Exchange groupings.

The working party was required to establish what actuarial information is needed by the financial world for the proper evaluation of a bid for a quoted insurance company, and, in the light of these findings, to consider what may be required in the way of guidance to actuaries. The report considers the issuesw hich occur when life insurance companies aresu bject to takeovers and to other changes of ownership. The Takeover Code has many implications in such situations and these are discussed fully, particularly any conflicts of interest and the independence or otherwise of the actuaries involved. The interests of policyholders are considered and advice is proffered to actuaries. A Guidance Note is being issued.