This paper is concerned with the current and future financing of long-term care (LTC). This is defined as the provision of nursing and care services to those adults who are incapable, to some degree, of looking after themselves, but excluding short-term convalescent care. The current position is summarised, covering the demand and supply of LTC, how it is currently financed, new developments and consumer attitudes. The paper then goes on to consider future developments. Possible patterns of future demand, covering likely needs and costs are given. Consideration is then given as to how future demand may be financed.

The paper discusses some of the initiatives that might be undertaken to encourage proper planning by both the State and individuals and concludes that the actuarial profession should have a significant role to play in communicating the issues and evaluating solutions.

The paper proposes a new way of assessing an investment manager's skill in the day-to-day management of portfolios. The authors argue that traditional investment performance measurement techniques, whilst appropriate for many purposes, do not provide the insights necessary to judge the skill of investment managers. To judge manager skill, it is necessary to consider the activity within the portfolio in terms of the purchases, sales and trades, and to determine the value added by that activity. The paper sets out a framework by which this analysis can be carried out and, by means of examples, indicates how the results can be interpreted. The paper also explores briefly a number of other issues such as the qualitative aspects of performance monitoring. In writing the paper, the concept of risk in various guises was never far from the authors' minds, and it is true to say that the meaning of risk in the context of assessing manager skill lies at the very heart of the paper.

This paper considers cross-validation as an objective and risk-based method for selecting the smoothing parameter in a non-parametric graduation. In addition, the relative merits of two kernel estimators are compared in the context of mortality graduation. Finally, it is well known in the statistical literature that the use of theoretically superior kernels is not as important as the choice of bandwidth. Our results support this conclusion, suggesting that the focus on such weights is misguided in the actuarial textbooks on moving weighted averages.

The paper sets out the method required to be followed when estimating reserves for a Company or a Lloyd's Syndicate which has accepted reinsurance treaties that have given rise to catastrophe losses, sufficiently large to upset the normal development pattern and to affect the gross account quite differently from the net account. The losses may be caused by single factors such as aircraft crashes or oil rig disasters, or by the aggregation of claims resulting from a windstorm or an earthquake. The paper discusses two possible approaches to estimation of the gross losses; via exposure totals or via statistical modelling techniques.

The 1993 Jubilee Lecture considered two fundamental questions addressed in the report of the Pension Law Review Committee: when an employee joins an occupational pension scheme, what should the law consider to be the fundamental pension promise; and how should that promise be protected? The factors affecting the employee's expectations are examined in the light of the pension promise, and the conclusion drawn that certain expectations relating to accrued rights should be protected by law, although the employer should be able to control its financial commitments as to future service. The status of surplus, in both an ongoing scheme and in the event of a wind-up, is also considered, and recommendations made as to the use of a surplus if not already dealt with by the scheme rules. The two principal forms of protection for the pension promise which were recommended by the Pension Law Review Committee are discussed; firstly, the introduction of a minimum solvency standard, backed up by tighter rules for the prompt payment of contributions and by enhanced monitoring and reporting requirements for scheme auditors and actuaries; and secondly, the setting up of a statutory compensation fund to cover a deficit in the event of fraud or theft, to be financed by a post-event levy on schemes.

Introduction of the new Total Return Indices. New Industrial Classification system introduced at the beginning of 1994, integrating the previously separate FT–Actuaries Share Indices and (more detailed) Stock Exchange groupings.

The working party was required to establish what actuarial information is needed by the financial world for the proper evaluation of a bid for a quoted insurance company, and, in the light of these findings, to consider what may be required in the way of guidance to actuaries. The report considers the issuesw hich occur when life insurance companies aresu bject to takeovers and to other changes of ownership. The Takeover Code has many implications in such situations and these are discussed fully, particularly any conflicts of interest and the independence or otherwise of the actuaries involved. The interests of policyholders are considered and advice is proffered to actuaries. A Guidance Note is being issued.