A series of papers by Hickey (1982, 1983, 1984) presents a stochastic ordering based on randomness. This paper extends the results by introducing a novel methodology to derive models that preserve stochastic ordering based on randomness. We achieve this by presenting a new family of pseudometric spaces based on a majorization property. This class of pseudometrics provides a new methodology for deriving the randomness measure of a random variable. Using this, the paper introduces the Gini randomness measure and states its essential properties. We demonstrate that the proposed measure has certain advantages over entropy measures. The measure satisfies the value validity property, provides an adequate extension to continuous random variables, and is often more appropriate (based on sensitivity) than entropy in various scenarios.

In this paper, we explore the applications of Tail Variance (TV) as a measure of tail riskiness and the confidence level of using Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE)-based risk capital. While TCE measures the expected loss of a risk that exceeds a certain threshold, TV measures the variability of risk along its tails. We first derive analytical formulas of TV and TCE for a large variety of probability distributions. These formulas are useful instruments for relevant research works on tail risk measures. We then propose a distribution-free approach utilizing TV to estimate the lower bounds of the confidence level of using TCE-based risk capital. In doing so, we introduce sharpened conditional probability inequalities, which halve the bounds of conventional Markov and Cantelli inequalities. Such an approach is easy to implement. We further investigate the characterization of tail risks by TV through an exploration of TV’s asymptotics. A distribution-free limit formula is derived for the asymptotics of TV. To further investigate the asymptotic properties, we consider two broad distribution families defined on tails, namely, the polynomial-tailed distributions and the exponential-tailed distributions. The two distribution families are found to exhibit an asymptotic equivalence between TV and the reciprocal square of the hazard rate. We also establish asymptotic relationships between TCE and VaR for the two families. Our asymptotic analysis contributes to the existing research by unifying the asymptotic expressions and the convergence rate of TV for Student-t distributions, exponential distributions, and normal distributions, which complements the discussion on the convergence rate of univariate cases in [28]. To show the usefulness of our results, we present two case studies based on real data from the industry. We first show how to use conditional inequalities to assess the confidence of using TCE-based risk capital for different types of insurance businesses. Then, for financial data, we provide alternative evidence for the relationship between the data frequency and the tail categorization by the asymptotics of TV.

In this work, we consider two sets of dependent variables $\{X_{1},\ldots,X_{n}\}$ and $\{Y_{1},\ldots,Y_{n}\}$, where $X_{i}\sim EW(\alpha_{i},\lambda_{i},k_{i})$ and $Y_{i}\sim EW(\beta_{i},\mu_{i},l_{i})$, for $i=1,\ldots, n$, which are coupled by Archimedean copulas having different generators. We then establish different inequalities between two extremes, namely, $X_{1:n}$ and $Y_{1:n}$ and $X_{n:n}$ and $Y_{n:n}$, in terms of the usual stochastic, star, Lorenz, hazard rate, reversed hazard rate and dispersive orders. Several examples and counterexamples are presented for illustrating all the results established here. Some of the results here extend the existing results of [5] (Barmalzan, G., Ayat, S.M., Balakrishnan, N., & Roozegar, R. (2020). Stochastic comparisons of series and parallel systems with dependent heterogeneous extended exponential components under Archimedean copula. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 380: Article No. 112965).

In this paper, we study the functional given by the integral of the mean curvature of a convex set with Gaussian weight with Gaussian volume constraint. It was conjectured that the ball centred at the origin is the only minimizer of such a functional for certain values of the mass. We prove that this is the case in dimension 2 while in higher dimension the situation is different. In fact, for small values of mass, the ball centred at the origin is a local minimizer, while for larger values the ball is a maximizer among convex sets with a uniform bound on the curvature.

Let $\mathcal{C}$ denote the family of all coherent distributions on the unit square $[0,1]^2$, i.e. all those probability measures $\mu$ for which there exists a random vector $(X,Y)\sim \mu$, a pair $(\mathcal{G},\mathcal{H})$ of $\sigma$-fields, and an event E such that $X=\mathbb{P}(E\mid\mathcal{G})$, $Y=\mathbb{P}(E\mid\mathcal{H})$ almost surely. We examine the set $\mathrm{ext}(\mathcal{C})$ of extreme points of $\mathcal{C}$ and provide its general characterisation. Moreover, we establish several structural properties of finitely-supported elements of $\mathrm{ext}(\mathcal{C})$. We apply these results to obtain the asymptotic sharp bound $\lim_{\alpha \to \infty}\alpha\cdot(\sup_{(X,Y)\in \mathcal{C}}\mathbb{E}|X-Y|^{\alpha}) = {2}/{\mathrm{e}}$.

Centrality measures aim to indicate who is important in a network. Various notions of ‘being important’ give rise to different centrality measures. In this paper, we study how important the central vertices are for the connectivity structure of the network, by investigating how the removal of the most central vertices affects the number of connected components and the size of the giant component. We use local convergence techniques to identify the limiting number of connected components for locally converging graphs and centrality measures that depend on the vertex’s neighbourhood. For the size of the giant, we prove a general upper bound. For the matching lower bound, we specialise to the case of degree centrality on one of the most popular models in network science, the configuration model, for which we show that removal of the highest-degree vertices destroys the giant most.

We show that an estimate by de la Peña, Ibragimov, and Jordan for ${\mathbb{E}}(X-c)^+$, with c a constant and X a random variable of which the mean, the variance, and $\mathbb{P}(X \leqslant c)$ are known, implies an estimate by Scarf on the infimum of ${\mathbb{E}}(X \wedge c)$ over the set of positive random variables X with fixed mean and variance. This also shows, as a consequence, that the former estimate implies an estimate by Lo on European option prices.

In this paper, we compare the entropy of the original distribution and its corresponding compound distribution. Several results are established based on convex order and relative log-concave order. The necessary and sufficient condition for a compound distribution to be log-concave is also discussed, including compound geometric distribution, compound negative binomial distribution and compound binomial distribution.

It is proven that a conjecture of Tao (2010) holds true for log-concave random variables on the integers: For every $n \geq 1$, if $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ are i.i.d. integer-valued, log-concave random variables, then

\begin{equation*} H(X_1+\cdots +X_{n+1}) \geq H(X_1+\cdots +X_{n}) + \frac {1}{2}\log {\Bigl (\frac {n+1}{n}\Bigr )} - o(1) \end{equation*}

$H(X_1) \to \infty$

$H(X_1)$

$U_1,\ldots,U_n$

$(0,1)$

\begin{equation*} h(X_1+\cdots +X_n + U_1+\cdots +U_n) = H(X_1+\cdots +X_n) + o(1), \end{equation*}

$H(X_1) \to \infty$

$h$

$o(1)$

There are some connections between aging notions, stochastic orders, and expected utilities. It is known that the DRHR (decreasing reversed hazard rate) aging notion can be characterized via the comparative statics result of risk aversion, and that the location-independent riskier order preserves monotonicity between risk premium and the Arrow–Pratt measure of risk aversion, and that the dispersive order preserves this monotonicity for the larger class of increasing utilities. Here, the aging notions ILR (increasing likelihood ratio), IFR (increasing failure rate), IGLR (increasing generalized likelihood ratio), and IGFR (increasing generalized failure rate) are characterized in terms of expected utilities. Based on these observations, we recover the closure properties of ILR, IFR, and DRHR under convolution, and of IGLR and IGFR under product, and investigate the closure properties of the dispersive order, location-independent riskier order, excess wealth order, the total time on test transform order under convolution, and the star order under product. We have some new findings.

In the classical gambler’s ruin problem, the gambler plays an adversary with initial capitals z and $a-z$, respectively, where $a>0$ and $0< z < a$ are integers. At each round, the gambler wins or loses a dollar with probabilities p and $1-p$. The game continues until one of the two players is ruined. For even a and $0<z\leq {a}/{2}$, the family of distributions of the duration (total number of rounds) of the game indexed by $p \in [0,{\frac{1}{2}}]$ is shown to have monotone (increasing) likelihood ratio, while for ${a}/{2} \leq z<a$, the family of distributions of the duration indexed by $p \in [{\frac{1}{2}}, 1]$ has monotone (decreasing) likelihood ratio. In particular, for $z={a}/{2}$, in terms of the likelihood ratio order, the distribution of the duration is maximized over $p \in [0,1]$ by $p={\frac{1}{2}}$. The case of odd a is also considered in terms of the usual stochastic order. Furthermore, as a limit, the first exit time of Brownian motion is briefly discussed.

Preservation of stochastic orders through the system signature has captured the attention of researchers in recent years. Signature-based comparisons have been made for the usual stochastic order, hazard rate order, and likelihood ratio orders. However, for the mean residual life (MRL) order, it has recently been proved that the preservation result does not hold true in general, but rather holds for a particular class of distributions. In this paper, we study whether or not a similar preservation result holds for the mean inactivity time (MIT) order. We prove that the MIT order is not preserved from signatures to system lifetimes with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) components, but holds for special classes of distributions. The relationship between these classes and the order statistics is also highlighted. Furthermore, the distribution-free comparison of the performance of coherent systems with dependent and identically distributed (d.i.d.) components is studied under the MIT ordering, using diagonal-dependent copulas and distorted distributions.

Copulas provide a powerful and flexible tool for modeling the dependence structure of random vectors, and they have many applications in finance, insurance, engineering, hydrology, and other fields. One well-known class of copulas in two dimensions is the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM) copula, since its simple analytic shape enables closed-form solutions to many problems in applied probability. However, the classical definition of the high-dimensional FGM copula does not enable a straightforward understanding of the effect of the copula parameters on the dependence, nor a geometric understanding of their admissible range. We circumvent this issue by analyzing the FGM copula from a probabilistic approach based on multivariate Bernoulli distributions. This paper examines high-dimensional exchangeable FGM copulas, a subclass of FGM copulas. We show that the dependence parameters of exchangeable FGM copulas can be expressed as a convex hull of a finite number of extreme points. We also leverage the probabilistic interpretation to develop efficient sampling and estimating procedures and provide a simulation study. Throughout, we discover geometric interpretations of the copula parameters that assist one in decoding the dependence of high-dimensional exchangeable FGM copulas.

We prove existence and uniqueness for the inverse-first-passage time problem for soft-killed Brownian motion using rather elementary methods relying on basic results from probability theory only. We completely avoid the relation to a suitable partial differential equation via a suitable Feynman–Kac representation, which was previously one of the main tools.

Developed sequential order statistics (DSOS) are very useful in modeling the lifetimes of systems with dependent components, where the failure of one component affects the performance of remaining surviving components. We study some stochastic comparison results for DSOS in both one-sample and two-sample scenarios. Furthermore, we study various ageing properties of DSOS. We state many useful results for generalized order statistics as well as ordinary order statistics with dependent random variables. At the end, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the proposed results.

In the literature on active redundancy allocation, the redundancy lifetimes are usually postulated to be independent of the component lifetimes for the sake of technical convenience. However, this unrealistic assumption leads to a risk of inaccurately evaluating system reliability, because it overlooks the statistical dependence of lifetimes due to common stresses. In this study, for k-out-of-n:F systems with component and redundancy lifetimes linked by the Archimedean copula, we show that (i) allocating more homogeneous redundancies to the less reliable components tends to produce a redundant system with stochastically larger lifetime, (ii) the reliability of the redundant system can be uniformly maximized through balancing the allocation of homogeneous redundancies in the context of homogeneous components, and (iii) allocating a more reliable matched redundancy to a less reliable component produces a more reliable system. These novel results on k-out-of-n:F systems in which component and redundancy lifetimes are statistically dependent are more applicable to the complicated engineering systems that arise in real practice. Some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate these findings.

In this paper, we establish some stochastic comparison results for largest claim amounts of two sets of independent and also for interdependent portfolios under the setup of the proportional odds model. We also establish stochastic comparison results for aggregate claim amounts of two sets of independent portfolios. Further, stochastic comparisons for largest claim amounts from two sets of independent multiple-outlier claims have also been studied. The results we obtained apply to the whole family of extended distributions, also known as the Marshall–Olkin family of distributions. We have given many numerical examples to illustrate the results obtained.

The Bruss–Robertson–Steele (BRS) inequality bounds the expected number of items of random size which can be packed into a given suitcase. Remarkably, no independence assumptions are needed on the random sizes, which points to a simple explanation; the inequality is the integrated form of an $\omega$-by-$\omega$ inequality, as this note proves.

Negative dependence of sequences of random variables is often an interesting characteristic of their distribution, as well as a useful tool for studying various asymptotic results, including central limit theorems, Poisson approximations, the rate of increase of the maximum, and more. In the study of probability models of tournaments, negative dependence of participants’ outcomes arises naturally, with application to various asymptotic results. In particular, the property of negative orthant dependence was proved in several articles for different tournament models, with a special proof for each model. In this note we unify these results by proving a stronger property, negative association, a generalization leading to a very simple proof. We also present a natural example of a knockout tournament where the scores are negatively orthant dependent but not negatively associated. The proof requires a new result on a preservation property of negative orthant dependence that is of independent interest.

Layer reinsurance treaty is a common form obtained in the problem of optimal reinsurance design. In this paper, we study allocations of policy limits in layer reinsurance treaties with dependent risks. We investigate the effects of orderings and heterogeneity among policy limits on the expected utility functions of the terminal wealth from the viewpoint of risk-averse insurers faced with right tail weakly stochastic arrangement increasing losses. Orderings on optimal allocations are presented for normal layer reinsurance contracts under certain conditions. Parallel studies are also conducted for randomized layer reinsurance contracts. As a special case, the worst allocations of policy limits are also identified when the exact dependence structure among the losses is unknown. Numerical examples are presented to shed light on the theoretical findings.