We study 2-stage game-theoretic problem oriented 3-stage service policy computing, convolutional neural network (CNN) based algorithm design, and simulation for a blockchained buffering system with federated learning. More precisely, based on the game-theoretic problem consisting of both “win-lose” and “win-win” 2-stage competitions, we derive a 3-stage dynamical service policy via a saddle point to a zero-sum game problem and a Nash equilibrium point to a non-zero-sum game problem. This policy is concerning users-selection, dynamic pricing, and online rate resource allocation via stable digital currency for the system. The main focus is on the design and analysis of the joint 3-stage service policy for given queue/environment state dependent pricing and utility functions. The asymptotic optimality and fairness of this dynamic service policy is justified by diffusion modeling with approximation theory. A general CNN based policy computing algorithm flow chart along the line of the so-called big model framework is presented. Simulation case studies are conducted for the system with three users, where only two of the three users can be selected into the service by a zero-sum dual cost game competition policy at a time point. Then, the selected two users get into service and share the system rate service resource through a non-zero-sum dual cost game competition policy. Applications of our policy in the future blockchain based Internet (e.g., metaverse and web3.0) and supply chain finance are also briefly illustrated.

We consider parallel single-server queues in heavy traffic with randomly split Hawkes arrival processes. The service times are assumed to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) in each queue and are independent in different queues. In the critically loaded regime at each queue, it is shown that the diffusion-scaled queueing and workload processes converge to a multidimensional reflected Brownian motion in the non-negative orthant with orthonormal reflections. For the model with abandonment, we also show that the corresponding limit is a multidimensional reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck diffusion in the non-negative orthant.

Let ${\mathrm{d}} X(t) = -Y(t) \, {\mathrm{d}} t$, where Y(t) is a one-dimensional diffusion process, and let $\tau(x,y)$ be the first time the process (X(t), Y(t)), starting from (x, y), leaves a subset of the first quadrant. The problem of computing the probability $p(x,y)\,:\!=\, \mathbb{P}[X(\tau(x,y))=0]$ is considered. The Laplace transform of the function p(x, y) is obtained in important particular cases, and it is shown that the transform can at least be inverted numerically. Explicit expressions for the Laplace transform of $\mathbb{E}[\tau(x,y)]$ and of the moment-generating function of $\tau(x,y)$ can also be derived.

We propose a discrete-time discrete-space Markov chain approximation with a Brownian bridge correction for computing curvilinear boundary crossing probabilities of a general diffusion process on a finite time interval. For broad classes of curvilinear boundaries and diffusion processes, we prove the convergence of the constructed approximations in the form of products of the respective substochastic matrices to the boundary crossing probabilities for the process as the time grid used to construct the Markov chains is getting finer. Numerical results indicate that the convergence rate for the proposed approximation with the Brownian bridge correction is $O(n^{-2})$ in the case of $C^2$ boundaries and a uniform time grid with n steps.

This paper deals with ergodic theorems for particular time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, whose time-inhomogeneity is asymptotically periodic. Under a Lyapunov/minorization condition, it is shown that, for any measurable bounded function f, the time average $\frac{1}{t} \int_0^t f(X_s)ds$ converges in $\mathbb{L}^2$ towards a limiting distribution, starting from any initial distribution for the process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ . This convergence can be improved to an almost sure convergence under an additional assumption on the initial measure. This result is then applied to show the existence of a quasi-ergodic distribution for processes absorbed by an asymptotically periodic moving boundary, satisfying a conditional Doeblin condition.

A moment constraint that limits the number of dividends in an optimal dividend problem is suggested. This leads to a new type of time-inconsistent stochastic impulse control problem. First, the optimal solution in the precommitment sense is derived. Second, the problem is formulated as an intrapersonal sequential dynamic game in line with Strotz’s consistent planning. In particular, the notions of pure dividend strategies and a (strong) subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium are adapted. An equilibrium is derived using a smooth fit condition. The equilibrium is shown to be strong. The uncontrolled state process is a fairly general diffusion.

We study the static maximization of long-term averaged profit, when optimal preset thresholds are determined to describe a pairs trading strategy in a general one-dimensional ergodic diffusion model of a stochastic spread process. An explicit formula for the expected value of a certain first passage time is given, which is used to derive a simple equation for determining the optimal thresholds. Asymptotic arbitrage in the long run of the threshold strategy is observed.

The propagation of gradient flow structures from microscopic to macroscopic models is a topic of high current interest. In this paper, we discuss this propagation in a model for the diffusion of particles interacting via hard-core exclusion or short-range repulsive potentials. We formulate the microscopic model as a high-dimensional gradient flow in the Wasserstein metric for an appropriate free-energy functional. Then we use the JKO approach to identify the asymptotics of the metric and the free-energy functional beyond the lowest order for single particle densities in the limit of small particle volumes by matched asymptotic expansions. While we use a propagation of chaos assumption at far distances, we consider correlations at small distance in the expansion. In this way, we obtain a clear picture of the emergence of a macroscopic gradient structure incorporating corrections in the free-energy functional due to the volume exclusion.

In large storage systems, files are often coded across several servers to improve reliability and retrieval speed. We study load balancing under the batch sampling routeing scheme for a network of n servers storing a set of files using the maximum distance separable (MDS) code (cf. Li (2016)). Specifically, each file is stored in equally sized pieces across L servers such that any k pieces can reconstruct the original file. When a request for a file is received, the dispatcher routes the job into the k-shortest queues among the L for which the corresponding server contains a piece of the file being requested. We establish a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem as the system becomes large (i.e. n → ∞), for the setting where all interarrival and service times are exponentially distributed. For the central limit theorem, the limit process take values in ℓ2, the space of square summable sequences. Due to the large size of such systems, a direct analysis of the n-server system is frequently intractable. The law of large numbers and diffusion approximations established in this work provide practical tools with which to perform such analysis. The power-of-d routeing scheme, also known as the supermarket model, is a special case of the model considered here.

In this paper we study the quasi-stationary behavior of absorbed one-dimensional diffusions. We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in total variation, uniformly with respect to the initial distribution. An important tool is provided by one-dimensional strict local martingale diffusions coming down from infinity. We prove, under mild assumptions, that their expectation at any positive time is uniformly bounded with respect to the initial position. We provide several examples and extensions, including the sticky Brownian motion and some one-dimensional processes with jumps.

The two-sided nonlinear boundary crossing probabilities for one-dimensional Brownian motion and related processes have been studied in Fu and Wu (2010) based on the finite Markov chain imbedding technique. It provides an efficient numerical method to computing the boundary crossing probabilities. In this paper we extend the above results for high-dimensional Brownian motion. In particular, we obtain the rate of convergence for high-dimensional boundary crossing probabilities. Numerical results are also provided to illustrate our results.

In this paper we study a weak law of large numbers for the total internal length of the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent, thereby obtaining the weak limit law of the centered and rescaled total external length; this extends results obtained in Dhersin and Möhle (2013). An application to population genetics dealing with the total number of mutations in the genealogical tree is also given.

Consider a one-dimensional diffusion process on the diffusion interval I originated in x0 ∈ I. Let a(t) and b(t) be two continuous functions of t, t > t0, with bounded derivatives, a(t) < b(t), and a(t), b(t) ∈ I, for all t > t0. We study the joint distribution of the two random variables Ta and Tb, the first hitting times of the diffusion process through the two boundaries a(t) and b(t), respectively. We express the joint distribution of Ta and Tb in terms of ℙ(Ta < t, Ta < Tb) and ℙ(Tb < t, Ta > Tb), and we determine a system of integral equations verified by these last probabilities. We propose a numerical algorithm to solve this system and we prove its convergence properties. Examples and modeling motivation for this study are also discussed.

Many physical processes appear to exhibit fractional order behavior that may vary with time or space. The continuum of order in the fractional calculus allows the order of the fractional operator to be considered as a variable. Numerical methods and analysis of stability and convergence of numerical scheme for the variable fractional order partial differential equations are quite limited and difficult to derive. This motivates us to develop efficient numerical methods as well as stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods for the space-time variable fractional order diffusion equation on a finite domain. It is worth mentioning that here we use the Coimbra-definition variable time fractional derivative which is more efficient from the numerical standpoint and is preferable for modeling dynamical systems. An implicit Euler approximation is proposed and then the stability and convergence of the numerical scheme are investigated. Finally, numerical examples are provided to show that the implicit Euler approximation is computationally efficient.

Known results on the moments of the distribution generated by the two-locus Wright–Fisher diffusion model, and the duality between the diffusion process and the ancestral process with recombination are briefly summarized. A numerical method for computing moments using a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and a method to compute closed-form expressions of the moments are presented. By applying the duality argument, the properties of the ancestral recombination graph are studied in terms of the moments.

Gene conversion is a genetic mechanism by which one gene is ‘copied and pasted’ onto another gene, where the direction can be biased between the different types. In this paper, a stochastic model for biased gene conversion within a d-unlinked multigene family and its diffusion approximation are developed for a finite Moran population. A connection with a d-island model is made. A formula for the fixation probability in the absence of mutation is given. A two-timescale argument is applied in the case of the strong conversion limit. The dual process is generally shown to be a biased voter model, which generates an ancestral bias graph for a given sample. An importance sampling algorithm for computing the likelihood of the sample is deduced.

An asset manager invests the savings of some investors in a portfolio of defaultable bonds. The manager pays the investors coupons at a constant rate and receives a management fee proportional to the value of the portfolio. He/she also has the right to walk out of the contract at any time with the net terminal value of the portfolio after payment of the investors' initial funds, and is not responsible for any deficit. To control the principal losses, investors may buy from the manager a limited protection which terminates the agreement as soon as the value of the portfolio drops below a predetermined threshold. We assume that the value of the portfolio is a jump diffusion process and find an optimal termination rule of the manager with and without protection. We also derive the indifference price of a limited protection. We illustrate the solution method on a numerical example. The motivation comes from the collateralized debt obligations.

We prove that the first passage time density ρ(t) for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process X(t) obeying dX = -β Xdt + σdW to reach a fixed threshold θ from a suprathreshold initial condition x0 > θ > 0 has a lower bound of the form ρ(t) > kexp[-pe6βt] for positive constants k and p for times t exceeding some positive value u. We obtain explicit expressions for k, p, and u in terms of β, σ, x0, and θ, and discuss the application of the results to the synchronization of periodically forced stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire model neurons.

We supply some relations that establish intertwining from duality and give a probabilistic interpretation. This is carried out in the context of discrete Markov chains, fixing up the background of previous relations established for monotone chains and their Siegmund duals. We revisit the duality for birth-and-death chains and the nonneutral Moran model, and we also explore the duality relations in an ultrametric-type dual that extends the Siegmund kernel. Finally, we discuss the sharp dual, following closely the Diaconis-Fill study.

Reversibility of the Fleming-Viot process with mutation, selection, and recombination is well understood. In this paper, we study the reversibility of a system of Fleming-Viot processes that live on a countable number of colonies interacting with each other through migrations between the colonies. It is shown that reversibility fails when both migration and mutation are non-trivial.