With the advent of new data collection technologies, intensive longitudinal data (ILD) are collected more frequently than ever. Along with the increased prevalence of ILD, more methods are being developed to analyze these data. However, relatively few methods have yet been applied for making long- or even short-term predictions from ILD in behavioral settings. Applications of forecasting methods to behavioral ILD are still scant. We first establish a general framework for modeling ILD and then extend that frame to two previously existing forecasting methods: these methods are Kalman prediction and ensemble prediction. After implementing Kalman and ensemble forecasts in free and open-source software, we apply these methods to daily drug and alcohol use data. In doing so, we create a simple, but nonlinear dynamical system model of daily drug and alcohol use and illustrate important differences between the forecasting methods. We further compare the Kalman and ensemble forecasting methods to several simpler forecasts of daily drug and alcohol use. Ensemble forecasts may be more appropriate than Kalman forecasts for nonlinear dynamical systems models, but further forecasting evaluation methods must be put into practice.

We present an approach for evaluating coherence in multivariate systems that considers all the variables simultaneously. We operationalize the multivariate system as a network and define coherence as the efficiency with which a signal is transmitted throughout the network. We illustrate this approach with time series data from 15 psychophysiological signals representing individuals’ moment-by-moment emotional reactions to emotional films. First, we summarize the time series through nonparametric Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Second, we use Spearman rank correlations to calculate relationships between each pair of variables. Third, based on the obtained associations, we construct a network using the variables as nodes. Finally, we examine signal transmission through all the nodes in the network. Our results indicate that the network consisting of the 15 psychophysiological signals has a small-world structure, with three clusters of variables and strong within-cluster connections. This structure supports an effective signal transmission across the entire network. When compared across experimental conditions, our results indicate that coherence is relatively stronger for intense emotional stimuli than for neutral stimuli. These findings are discussed in relation to multivariate methods and emotion theories.

Generalized orthogonal linear derivative (GOLD) estimates were proposed to correct a problem of correlated estimation errors in generalized local linear approximation (GLLA). This paper shows that GOLD estimates are related to GLLA estimates by the Gram–Schmidt orthogonalization process. Analytical work suggests that GLLA estimates are derivatives of an approximating polynomial and GOLD estimates are linear combinations of these derivatives. A series of simulation studies then further investigates and tests the analytical properties derived. The first study shows that when approximating or smoothing noisy data, GLLA outperforms GOLD, but when interpolating noisy data GOLD outperforms GLLA. The second study shows that when data are not noisy, GLLA always outperforms GOLD in terms of derivative estimation. Thus, when data can be smoothed or are not noisy, GLLA is preferred whereas when they cannot then GOLD is preferred. The last studies show situations where GOLD can produce biased estimates. In spite of these possible shortcomings of GOLD to produce accurate and unbiased estimates, GOLD may still provide adequate or improved model estimation because of its orthogonal error structure. However, GOLD should not be used purely for derivative estimation because the error covariance structure is irrelevant in this case. Future research should attempt to find orthogonal polynomial derivative estimators that produce accurate and unbiased derivatives with an orthogonal error structure.

We study the class $\operatorname {Erg}^\perp $ of automorphisms which are disjoint with all ergodic systems. We prove that the identities are the only multipliers of $\operatorname {Erg}^\perp ,$ that is, each automorphism whose every joining with an element of $\operatorname {Erg}^{\perp }$ yields a system which is again an element of $\operatorname {Erg}^{\perp }$, must be an identity. Despite this fact, we show that $\operatorname {Erg}^\perp $ is closed by taking Cartesian products. Finally, we prove that there are non-identity elements in $\operatorname {Erg}^\perp $ whose self-joinings always yield elements in $\operatorname {Erg}^\perp $. This shows that there are non-trivial characteristic classes included in $\operatorname {Erg}^\perp $.

In this paper, we study a connection between disintegration of measures and geometric properties of probability spaces. We prove a disintegration theorem, addressing disintegration from the perspective of an optimal transport problem. We look at the disintegration of transport plans, which are used to define and study disintegration maps. Using these objects, we study the regularity and absolute continuity of disintegration of measures. In particular, we exhibit conditions for which the disintegration map is weakly continuous and one can obtain a path of measures given by this map. We show a rigidity condition for the disintegration of measures to be given into absolutely continuous measures.

Feng and Huang [Variational principle for weighted topological pressure. J. Math. Pures Appl. (9) 106 (2016), 411–452] introduced weighted topological entropy and pressure for factor maps between dynamical systems and established its variational principle. Tsukamoto [New approach to weighted topological entropy and pressure. Ergod. Th. & Dynam. Sys. 43 (2023), 1004–1034] redefined those invariants quite differently for the simplest case and showed via the variational principle that the two definitions coincide. We generalize Tsukamoto’s approach, redefine the weighted topological entropy and pressure for higher dimensions, and prove the variational principle. Our result allows for an elementary calculation of the Hausdorff dimension of affine-invariant sets such as self-affine sponges and certain sofic sets that reside in Euclidean space of arbitrary dimension.

We study the Diophantine transference principle over function fields. By adapting the approach of Beresnevich and Velani [‘An inhomogeneous transference principle and Diophantine approximation’, Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. (3) 101 (2010), 821–851] to function fields, we extend many results from homogeneous to inhomogeneous Diophantine approximation. This also yields the inhomogeneous Baker–Sprindžuk conjecture over function fields and upper bounds for the general nonextremal scenario.

We introduce the notions of returns and well-aligned sets for closed relations on compact metric spaces and then use them to obtain non-trivial sufficient conditions for such a relation to have non-zero entropy. In addition, we give a characterization of finite relations with non-zero entropy in terms of Li–Yorke and DC2 chaos.

We prove that crossed products of fiberwise essentially minimal zero-dimensional dynamical systems, a class that includes systems in which all orbit closures are minimal, have isomorphic K-theory if and only if the dynamical systems are strong orbit equivalent. Under the additional assumption that the dynamical systems have no periodic points, this gives a classification theorem including isomorphism of the associated crossed product $C^*$-algebras as well. We additionally explore the K-theory of such crossed products and the Bratteli diagrams associated to the dynamical systems.

Fish often swim in crystallized group formations (schooling) and orient themselves against the incoming flow (rheotaxis). At the intersection of these two phenomena, we investigate the emergence of unique schooling patterns through passive hydrodynamic mechanisms in a fish pair, the simplest subsystem of a school. First, we develop a fluid dynamics-based mathematical model for the positions and orientations of two fish swimming against a flow in an infinite channel, modelling the effect of the self-propelling motion of each fish as a point-dipole. The resulting system of equations is studied to gain an understanding of the properties of the dynamical system, its equilibria and their stability. The system is found to have five types of equilibria, out of which only upstream swimming in in-line and staggered formations can be stable. A stable near-wall configuration is observed only in limiting cases. It is shown that the stability of these equilibria depends on the flow curvature and streamwise interfish distance, below critical values of which, the system may not have a stable equilibrium. The study reveals that simply through passive fluid dynamics, in the absence of any other feedback/sensing, we can justify rheotaxis and the existence of stable in-line and staggered schooling configurations.

Stability is among the most important concepts in dynamical systems. Local stability is well-studied, whereas determining the ‘global stability’ of a nonlinear system is very challenging. Over the last few decades, many different ideas have been developed to address this issue, primarily driven by concrete applications. In particular, several disciplines suggested a web of concepts under the headline ‘resilience’. Unfortunately, there are many different variants and explanations of resilience, and often, the definitions are left relatively vague, sometimes even deliberately. Yet, to allow for a structural development of a mathematical theory of resilience that can be used across different areas, one has to ensure precise starting definitions and provide a mathematical comparison of different resilience measures. In this work, we provide a systematic review of the most relevant indicators of resilience in the context of continuous dynamical systems, grouped according to their mathematical features. The indicators are also generalised to be applicable to any attractor. These steps are important to ensure a more reliable, quantitatively comparable and reproducible study of resilience in dynamical systems. Furthermore, we also develop a new concept of resilience against certain nonautonomous perturbations to demonstrate how one can naturally extend our framework. All the indicators are finally compared via the analysis of a classic scalar model from population dynamics to show that direct quantitative application-based comparisons are an immediate consequence of a detailed mathematical analysis.

State-of-the-art machine-learning-based models are a popular choice for modeling and forecasting energy behavior in buildings because given enough data, they are good at finding spatiotemporal patterns and structures even in scenarios where the complexity prohibits analytical descriptions. However, their architecture typically does not hold physical correspondence to mechanistic structures linked with governing physical phenomena. As a result, their ability to successfully generalize for unobserved timesteps depends on the representativeness of the dynamics underlying the observed system in the data, which is difficult to guarantee in real-world engineering problems such as control and energy management in digital twins. In response, we present a framework that combines lumped-parameter models in the form of linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models (SSMs) with unsupervised reduced-order modeling in a subspace-based domain adaptation (SDA) approach, which is a type of transfer-learning (TL) technique. Traditionally, SDA is adopted for exploiting labeled data from one domain to predict in a different but related target domain for which labeled data is limited. We introduced a novel SDA approach where instead of labeled data, we leverage the geometric structure of the LTI SSM governed by well-known heat transfer ordinary differential equations to forecast for unobserved timesteps beyond available measurement data by geometrically aligning the physics-derived and data-derived embedded subspaces closer together. In this initial exploration, we evaluate the physics-based SDA framework on a demonstrative heat conduction scenario by varying the thermophysical properties of the source and target systems to demonstrate the transferability of mechanistic models from physics to observed measurement data.

We present a unified theory for the almost periodicity of functions with values in an arbitrary Banach space, measures and distributions via almost periodic elements for the action of a locally compact abelian group on a uniform topological space. We discuss the relation between Bohr- and Bochner-type almost periodicity, and similar conditions, and how the equivalence among such conditions relates to properties of the group action and the uniformity. We complete the paper by demonstrating how various examples considered earlier all fit in our framework.

Let $({\mathbb X}, T)$ be a subshift of finite type equipped with the Gibbs measure $\nu $ and let f be a real-valued Hölder continuous function on ${\mathbb X}$ such that $\nu (f) = 0$. Consider the Birkhoff sums $S_n f = \sum _{k=0}^{n-1} f \circ T^{k}$, $n\geqslant 1$. For any $t \in {\mathbb R}$, denote by $\tau _t^f$ the first time when the sum $t+ S_n f$ leaves the positive half-line for some $n\geqslant 1$. By analogy with the case of random walks with independent and identically distributed increments, we study the asymptotic as $ n\to \infty $ of the probabilities $ \nu (x\in {\mathbb X}: \tau _t^f(x)>n) $ and $ {\nu (x\in {\mathbb X}: \tau _t^f(x)=n) }$. We also establish integral and local-type limit theorems for the sum $t+ S_n f(x)$ conditioned on the set $\{ x \in {\mathbb X}: \tau _t^f(x)>n \}.$